What is the NFL success rate at 2pt conversion?
The reason if down 14 and you make your first 2pt conversion and get another TD with extra point you can win.
If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD, on the next TD you go for another 2pt to tie.
So, it all comes down to the 1st question. What is the teams success rate at 2 point conversions?
Add on:
Close to 50%
https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-conversion-success-rate/