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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Foxx replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Here Is the Bodycount the Imperial College Model Predicted for Non-Lockdown Sweden Next to What Actually Happened The same Imperial College Model which caused the UK and US to lock down I wonder how many people who claim that lockdown is essential to dealing with Covid-19 have actually looked at the original Imperial College report, which sparked the British Government’s decision [and also played a key role in influencing the White House] to shut down much of the economy and place the most draconian measures on the population ever seen. Had they done so, they might have been shocked to find that the modelling they used assumes the measures would be put in place for 5 months: “Suppression strategies are assumed to be in place for 5 months or longer.” (p. 6) “The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place.” (p. 10) Would those who accepted lockdown as absolutely necessary have been quite so ready to accept it had they known that it would need to be put in place for 5 months? My guess is no, yet that is what “the science” they followed actually calls for. Of course it remains to be seen whether the Government will continue on this course, or whether most of the media and large sections of the public who demanded and welcomed the draconian measures are prepared to continue backing that particular horse, but if they are to be consistent and “led by the science”, as they have so far claimed, they are going to have to insist that lockdown should continue until late August, as the Imperial College model says it should. But as I have said repeatedly, I see no evidence for the necessity of lockdown, for two reasons. Firstly because the case fatality rate of Covid-19 does not warrant it (the evidence points to between 0.1%-0.5%, and a recent study from Stanford University suggests it may be between 0.12% and 0.2%). And secondly, because I have seen no evidence to suggest that a lockdown strategy makes any real difference in reducing cases and deaths. ... -
Doc is correct, you can use Coinbase in order to use fiat to purchase BTC (and other cryptos). there is a process and many hoops to jump through in order to get confirmed. they also have various different levels which correspond with the information required to do so. AML/KYC issues mainly. also, and this is important... you do not actually own the coinage unless you have transferred it to your own wallet. a wallet on an exchange such as Coinbase is a custodial wallet. if, as so many people learned painfully with the Mt. Gox fiasco, if you don't actually possess the crypto, you are at risk. there are many wallets out there. the core wallet was the first and it actually contains a record of every single transaction, ever. it can be cumbersome but some purists swear by it. additionally, there are hardware wallets such as Trezor and KeepKey and Ledger, which make hacking almost impossible. there are also a plethora of virtual wallets. if you choose to use a virtual wallet, you need to learn safe usage practices so you don't get hacked and or you lose access to the wallet.
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for Henrietta, that is both. I suspect the village electric cost i mentioned may be for just the electricity itself with the delivery charge being added. to be honest, i do not remember, it has been some years since i did all the leg work in deciding where to set up. if you need to know, i can look again.
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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Foxx replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
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yes. all bets may be off with the current state of affairs though. completely unprecedented times we are in. averaging in is always a good bet. a few items of note here though... one thing to consider is the network hash rate. this is the total sum of all the computers on the network working to solve the complex mathematical problems required to solve a block and thus bring it into existence. back when BTC was at the today's current price of say $8K, the network hash rate was roughly 10mm terahashes in Nov of '17. today, that same price of $8k has a network hash rate roughly 12x that at around 120mm terahashes. another item to factor is the network Difficulty rate. the difficulty is a complex formula designed to fluctuate every two weeks with the goal in mind to keep the block birthing rate at roughly one every ten minutes. so, as the network hash rate goes up, so does the Difficulty. as the network hash rate goes down, the Difficulty also lowers to keep the system on a consistent basis. it doesn't always work because the two week lag can back things up if there were to be a sudden price rise, as has happened in the past but it does work itself out. now, all transactions go through the network to get confirmed (s(p)ending BTC/receiving BTC), they are attached to the blocks. this is how miners get payed that aren't the actual ones to solve the mathematical equation and bring the block into existence. so, all things being equal, between the hash rate and the difficulty, miners today are earning roughly 1/12th what they were in November of '17. however, all things are not always equal, lol. additional variables include energy costs and advances in ASIC computing. i would say that, in general, energy rates are pretty constant to specific location (though they can and do vary greatly (for instance, in Fairport or Holley i can get village electric at roughly $0.04 kWh where as in say, Henrietta, it is roughly $0.10 a kWh (additionally, it can be almost free in say China))). with ASIC computing, the advances since Nov'17 are a little better than 4fold, which if your energy costs remain static you are making roughly 3x less today (instead of the 12x) than you would have in Nov '17... but, you also have to factor in the layout for the new equipment which can be very costly and ROI pushes you out quite a ways, especially at the lower return rate. it all boils down to speculation. my mining outfit is no longer profitable on a day to day basis (at one point in '17 i was making roughly $500 a day, lol (not bad for passive income, eh?)) I still run it, albeit on a lessor scale (idle machinery), averaging in my stake. all of this to say that... miners need to get paid or they shut off their machinery. the network will still survive low prices because of the way the system is built, it will always run as long as there is an internet and electricity. the expected rise in fiat price because of the coming halving is not as baked in the cake as it may seem. though if we are using historical trends as our guide, it would seem inevitable. i believe the institutional investment arms are going to play a much larger role in where we go than they did at the previous 'halving'. as such, knowing what their algos are and their intent is, at best, is a crap shoot. the golden rule is and should always be... never invest more than you are willing to lose.
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see now, that's the curious part. Catherine was reporting on this stuff prior to her being hired by CBS. she was one of my favorite sources prior to her being hired by the main stream propagandist outlet. i am quite pleased that she is still doing her thing. there is a dichotomy here, i just don't know what it is yet.
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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Foxx replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
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yep. just a word to the wise here, though this cannot in any way be considered investing advice, after all, i'm just some stupid keyboard jockey... do your own due diligence and investigate any and all investment opportunities. the next "halving" is set to occur the week of May the 18th. due to fluctuations in block confirmation times, the time is approximate, thus the week of the 18th nomenclature. however, it will occur when the 630,000 block comes into existence. what is a 'halving'? a halving is what occurs with every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years) brought into existence. the first 210,00 blocks produced 50 BTC per solved block, the first halving cut that to 25 BTC per and then the last, cut it to the current 12.5 BTC per. with this next, it will further reduce the reward to 6.25 BTC per solved block. each of the previous two 'halvings' saw a brief drop in the fiat pricing before a precipitous liftoff occurred, which you can see with the historical chart below. it has been said though that, "The smart money doesn't hold until halving day. They let the suckers buy into it a few weeks before hand before they slam them." now, if I were to revisit my long term technicals, i still believe it has to revisit three digit territory before liftoff can commence in earnest. however, with what we are currently living through, that view may be moot. there is no real historical precedent to gauge it with, so the current bubble may complete without closing the loop, as it were. again, a whole lot of words to say essentially nothing, except to provide a bit of context around the coming halving..
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a Forbes article. perhaps a reason for the rise of the last week. Coronavirus Is The ‘Largest Insolvency Event’ In History, Warns Former Goldman Sachs Fund Manager—Pivots Hard To Bitcoin Bitcoin has largely failed to perform as a so-called safe-haven asset during the coronavirus crisis so far—though that could have begun to change. The bitcoin price fell sharply last month amid a broader market crash that will go down in history as one of the worst market routs of all time, but outperformed major U.S. indexes for the first quarter. Now, renowned former Goldman Sachs fund manager Raoul Pal has warned the coronavirus crisis will cause history's worst insolvency event, while moving 25% of his portfolio to bitcoin. ... ... "I think it's a huge societal change that's coming from all of this," Pal said, adding that he thinks the coronavirus crisis will cause "the largest insolvency event in all history." The U.S. unemployment rate could rise to more than 32% over the next three months as more than 47 million Americans lose their jobs, economists at the Federal Reserve warned this week. Others have echoed this, with one official at the U.K.'s Bank of England warning unemployment in Britain and the U.S. could surpass levels reached during the 1930s Great Depression within months.... ... Reports of an increase in bitcoin demand this week have caused some bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors to recall bitcoin's epic 2017 rally. Bitcoin's 2017 rally, which saw the bitcoin price soar from under $1,000 per bitcoin at the beginning of the year to around $20,000 by December, was largely driven by retail investors and so-called fear of missing out as early adopters became overnight millionaires. "I haven’t seen this much organic new interest in bitcoin since early 2017 in my non-crypto circles," said well-known crypto investor Ari Paul, the co-founder and chief investment officer of BlockTower Capital, via Twitter.
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The Media's Portrayal of Trump and His Presidency
Foxx replied to Nanker's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
whataboutisim -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
Foxx replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
the ability to have reading comprehension. you? -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Foxx replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
but, you know... let's destroy the economy and implement new precautions such as contact tracing and having people who had the virus wear patches or some such. as seen on the interwebs... 'i did Nazi that coming'. -
truth always seems to find the light. https://twitter.com/jsolomonReports/status/1255478736943812609 Steele reveals he believes Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice knew about his anti-Trump research ... Steele told a British court he believed he had been hired by the Fusion GPS firm owned by Glenn Simpson through the Democratic National Committee-linked law firm Perkins Coie to assist the Clinton campaign during the election, according to a transcript of the testimony. “I presumed it was the Clinton campaign, and Glenn Simpson had indicated that. But I was not aware of the technicality of it being the DNC that was actually the client of Perkins Coie,” Steele testified in March under questioning from lawyers for Russian bankers suing over his research. “You knew it was the leadership of the Clinton presidential campaign didn't you?” a lawyer for the businessmen asked. “I believed it was the campaign. Yes,” he answered. “The leadership of the Clinton campaign?” he was asked. “Fine, the leadership of the campaign,” Steele conceded. The lawyer persisted. “You also understood that Hillary Clinton herself was aware of what you were doing?” the lawyer asked. “I think Glenn had mentioned it, but I wasn't clear,” Steele answered. Then Steele was confronted with what lawyers said were notes he took at a meeting with the FBI in 2016 in which he purported to tell agents that Clinton was aware of his research. The lawyers read from those notes during the court proceedings. The notes, according to the transcript, read: “We explained that Glenn Simpson/GPS Fusion was our commissioner but the ultimate client were the leadership of the Clinton presidential campaign and that we understood the candidate herself was aware of the reporting at least, if not us.” ...
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Everything Joe Biden--Gaffes, Miscues, Touching, Songs
Foxx replied to 3rdnlng's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
from the file, 'speaks for itself'. https://twitter.com/AndrewCMcCarthy/status/1255268550631186435 -
What have the Democrats done in the past Four years
Foxx replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
your actions speak otherwise. nothing to defend, it is what it is and while it isn't perfect, it, by far, blows away the alternative. -
What have the Democrats done in the past Four years
Foxx replied to B-Man's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
more, whataboutisim's in a Democrat's thread. you're pretty scared at the prospect of another 4 years aint ya? -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
Foxx replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
breaking news, this is the '20 Democratic Presidential Primary thread. since Trump is not the subject of being primaried in any primaries, your constant flailing is just whataboutisim. there are plenty of Trump threads, this isn't one of them.