A few things bother me in this matchup:
-Bengals have the rest advantage, more desperation, are 12-5 in the last 17 games when Burrow/Higgins/Chase are on the field, and the Bosa injury is huge because Burow is great against the blitz which the Bills will have to use in order to create any kind of pressure. Burrow started out slow last Thanksgiving but looked like his old self in the 2nd half.
However, I think the Bills run all over this defense and if they sell out to stop it Allen can make it look like the Bucs game. I think it's close but I've got the Bills at 28-24.