racketmaster

At this point, I can't write Allen off because of his immense physical tools. Beane was significantly involved with scouting and drafting Cam Newton. He had limited experience and was not the most accurate passer even though his completion percentage was very solid. Allen operates in a pro style offense and was required to make more difficult throws. Yes, he makes some very inaccurate throws but because he is incredibly gifted the Bills may feel like he is worth the risk. He checks the character box so he will not fail because he is lazy or not willing to be coached. He would be more like Jake Locker than a Jamarcus Russell. But I believe Allen is more physically gifted than Locker (more height, larger frame and better arm talent). So, yes he could fail but Newton has not been the most accurate NFL passer and Beane still appears to consider him a franchise quarterback. The interview and board process will be huge for Allen.

It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. It is no secret the Bills are in the market for a quarterback and if it is, then it is the worst kept secret. They let their feelings about Taylor and his future be known when pulling him for Peterman in the middle of a playoff race. It is possible Taylor could be back but only to finish out his last year as a bridge. The Bills regime is going into their second year and they know they must find a franchise quarterback or they will not have long term job security. They are going to do everything possible in this draft to find their quarterback. So with that said, I enjoy putting on my Sherlock Holmes hat and predicting (mocking) quarterbacks who would be a fit for the Bills. So the following is not a true analysis and quarterback ranking, but rather who are the quarterbacks most valued by the Bills? In order to come up with an educated guess it is useful to first look at what type of quarterback the Bills might be looking for. I have listed a few generally known facts about the organization and some additional attributes mentioned by our GM. The McBeane era has brought significant changes to the organization and the changes will reflect on what quarterback they will likely target. Here are some attributes that the current organization appears to place a high emphasis on (no particular order): 1. High moral character 2. Willingness to compete 3. Being a good teammate 4. Smart 5. Emphasis on experience and maturity 6. Importance of faith and family 7. High work ethic 8. Availability and durability, 9. Scheme and culture fit.There are probably more but McDermott and Beane appear to have emphasized these traits in the types of players they have maintained and acquired. When drafting players and acquiring players the Bills seem to place an emphasis on these traits. Not every player will be a perfect 10 on the list of characteristics but the Bills appear to want players that possess all or most of those characteristics. The 2017 draft and free agents signings demonstrate this. The players traded away also demonstrate this. After the Watkins and Darby traded McDermott was quoted as saying “the Bills were trying to build a team – not just collect talent. So we have a pretty good idea of what attributes the Bills value in all of their players. But what are some of the specific characteristics the Bills may be looking for in a quarterback? The following quote from Brandon Beane gives us some insight into this area: "Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." So here we can infer that Beane values (1) Size (ideal height and weight), (2) Arm Strength (3) Mental side of game (4) Leadership. In another recent quote, Beane was asked what quarterbacks he had scouted live and he responded by saying "I've seen all of them that matter," Beane said. "I've seen every one of them that could potentially be in the first round." This statement is very telling to me. Beane said he has seen all the quarterbacks that matter (ones that could be drafted by in first round). He is basically telling us that the Bills are looking for their franchise quarterback in the first round because those are the ones that matter. So who has Beane visited this college season? Bills Mafia Dean Kindig has a list of visits made by Beane to colleges (updated 12/4/17): USC/Darnold 3 times, Oklahoma State Rudolph 2 times plus a reported Bowl game visit by Beane and Schoen, UCLA Rosen 2 times, Oklahoma Mayfield 1 time, Louisville Jackson 1 time and Wyoming Allen 1 time. It is possible that some of the visits are not accurate but I will trust the writer as he has been tracking this activity for the past few years. Coincidentally, the above six quarterbacks are the only ones that are consistently found in the first rounds of mock drafts. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen are found being drafted in the first round of most every mock draft out there. Rudolph and Jackson are found going in a significant number of mock drafts but not at the same level as the other four. No other quarterbacks are found going in the first round on a significant basis. Beane reportedly visited Washington State (Falk) 2 times as well but Falk is not considered a first round quarterback in most mock drafts. Mike White and Lauletta’s respective colleges were not on the list of visits. Conclusions/Predictions: So that is a lot of information to digest. Hopefully, you were patient to sift through it all for yourself. Maybe you have and made your own conclusions. Here are my takeaways from this information/evidence: DARNOLD: He appears to fit the character attributes the organization is looking for in a quarterback. Work ethic and coachable. No real off the field issues and no concerns from teammates and coaches that have been made public. Darnold also fits the physical attributes Beane appears to be looking for in a quarterback. There are concerns with his throwing motion and decision making, but I think he checks most all the boxes for the Bills. Enough where I believe the Bills would trade up for him if they could get in the right spot. ALLEN: Same with Darnold, Allen checks all the boxes for the type of character the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. He also is the most physically gifted quarterback to come out since probably Cam Newton in terms of size, mobility and arm strength. So those boxes will be checks. There are concerns about his accuracy, read defenses and throw with touch. But I don’t think any of these things will automatically take Allen out of consideration. To me, the interview process and visits with coaches will be the determining factor for Allen. If he shows really well on the board and proves that he can process and retain information being thrown at him he could be a target for a trade up. He is in consideration. RUDOLPH: I have watched videos and interviews with all the top quarterbacks and my sense is that Rudolph will blow the Bills decision makers away with his intangibles and character. He reminds me of a young Peyton Manning in the way he conducts himself. I don’t know what “It” is but he definitely has the “It” part down in spades. He also has the size and stature the Bills are looking for in a quarterback. However, I think the Bills will have reservations regarding his arm strength. I have questions about his arm strength and it is definitely the weakest of the top 6 quarterbacks. But is it “Strong Enough” as Philip Rivers famously said about his arm during the draft process. Combine and pro days will tell us more. But Beane did reference Delhomme as a franchise quarterback and he was not one with the strongest of arm or possessing any great mobility. He was off the charts in the intangibles department and that is where I believe Rudolph will also fall in the Bills eyes. I see Rudolph as a very real possibility at 21 if he demonstrates that his arm is just strong enough. MAYFIELD: Mayfield had the drunken incident in which he ran away from the cops but otherwise no other off the field issues. But he has displayed himself in a brash and almost cocky manner on the field and was involved in the crotch grabbing incident. . Mayfield is a regular on social media and can be sensitive about criticism. These may not be deal breakers if Mayfield was a LB or WR. But we are talking quarterback and the Face of the Franchise. McBeane will be attaching their reputation and careers on this draft pick and Mayfield will likely fail the maturity test. In addition, Mayfield fails the size and stature test. This is probably not a deal breaker but it is rare to find franchise quarterbacks at his size. Brees and Wilson are the exceptions but they are also exceptionally mature individuals and were so coming out of college. I just don’t see Mayfield as a fit and would be surprised if the Bills targeted him. ROSEN: With Rosen, there have been consistent rumblings about his demeanor/attitude going back to his days at the Elite 11 camp. Reading into his background, my sense on him is that he grew up a privileged kid and has a “I’m better than you” type demeanor about him. He is extremely smart but maybe too smart for his own good sometimes. He has had issues with past coaches like Dilfer and Mora and it is likely due to Rosen thinking he is smarter than his coaches (sometimes he might be). But there are ways of using your intelligence in a more productive manner. Rosen needs to grow in his maturity and recognize that there is a time and place to question coaches and you must do so in a tactful manner without being dismissive toward instruction. There have been rumblings that his attitude rubs teammates the wrong way as well. As much as McBeane emphasize team culture and character, I just can’t imagine that Rosen would be a fit for the Bills. In addition, there have been questions about how passionate Rosen is about the game of football. Is he going to walk away and pursue other interests? Will he be truly committed to his team? He has durability concerns missing a significant amount of games in college to include concussion concerns. If he gets 1 or 2 more concussions in the NFL, is he just going to walk away because he can pursue another passion? I just don’t see a match with the Bills and I would be absolutely shocked if the Bills traded up for him. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Bills passed on Rosen if he fell to them at 21. McBeane value the right fit over talent. No matter where Rosen would be drafted by the Bills, he is not the right fit for this organization. JACKSON: I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback. SUMMARY: Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now. UPDATED PORTION 4/10/18: We are almost 2 weeks away from the draft now and things are starting to become a little clearer. What we know: (1) Bills are drafting a QB in round 1 and (2) Bills prefer a big, strong, competitive, dedicated, at least some mobile qb but one that is a consistent pocket passer. Who are the top candidates in round 1? The answer is still the same (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph). And of the top 6, I think we can eliminate 2 of them, Jackson and Allen. Why? Allen has all the physical attributes the Bills are looking for and has excellent character as well. But it is clear that they Bills have not spent much time on Allen and they must be bothered by his pocket presence, accuracy and decision-making. If the updated version of Dean Kindig's (scouting the Bills scouts) is correct, then the Bills attended the following games of the top 6: Darnold (3), Rosen (2). Mayfield (2), Rudolph (2), Jackson (1) and Allen (0). This is a bit of a change as it had been reported previously that the Bills attended 1 of Allen's games. But 1 or none, still shows the Bills overall lack of interest in Allen. A few weeks ago, the Allen and Buffalo loves him rumors started circulating around the draft community and it appeared that Bills scouts were deliberately putting that information out there. To me, it was an obvious smokescreen. Maybe the Bills had some interest in Allen but not in the top half of round 1 where he would need to be selected. It could also be that the Bills know the Browns want Allen and there is nothing they can do with them at #1 and #4. Whatever, the case may be the Bills have not shown enough interest in Allen to lead me to believe they would risk trading a bunch of assets to move up and get him. Jackson is the other qb we can eliminate from contention. As stated in the original post, Jackson is not a fit for what the Bills are looking for and nothing has changed since that time (if anything it is even more obvious). They have moved on from Tyrod and the Bills brass have not had the extensive meetings they have had with the other top candidates. Whether that is due to lack of interest on the Bills part or scheduling issues with Jackson's mother being his agent. In any case, the Bills attended only 1 of Jackson's games live. And if there is a candidate that the Bills would want to test on the whiteboard and through watching extensive film with, it is Jackson. It has been reported that Jackson did not impress in interviews at the combine and his 13 wonderlic score did him no favors. Jackson could end up being the most productive qb of the bunch (at least for the first few years) but it is extremely unlikely that it will be with the Bills. They want a consistent pocket passing qb (Bills envision a long term answer at qb and they see long term success coming from consistent pocket passers). That is not Jackson's game as he relies far too much on his legs. I can't emphasize this enough, the Bills are not purposely avoiding Jackson in order to fake other teams out. This is an extremely important decision and they are not drafting a qb without having gone through extensive whiteboard, interviews and film study with the candidates. They have had short interviews with but not the extensive ones. This regime values information and will want to know virtually everything about the player they select. Who does it leave: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. I think there is little doubt at this point that Buffalo's top choice would be Darnold. They loved him in the fall and attended 3 of his games (more than any other qb). As stated in the original post, Darnold checks all the boxes of what the Bills are looking for in a qb. The only problem is, how do the Bills get to 1 or 2 because that is the only way they would be able to draft him. The Bills are visiting with Darnold this week and like others I do not believe they would be wasting their time meeting with him if they did not have some plan to trade up. And I do believe the Bills would be willing to pay a hefty price for Darnold. The question will be if they can get Cleveland of the Giants to bite. I believe the reports that the Giants only want Darnold and would otherwise take a player at another position. And if that is the case, the Bills won't be able to trade with the Giants or would have to significantly overpay in order to get the Giants to move off Darnold. It might be more possible that the Bills get a deal with Cleveland because I do believe the many reports that they love Allen. I believe Cleveland is looking for ways to get Allen but also get some extra picks out of the deal (it would help them justify taking Allen over Darnold if they could get extra assets). Ideally, they probably want the Giants to pay them a second and third to move up to #1. I think they have been trying to get Gettleman to pay assets to move up 1 spot but they have gotten no where so far. Maybe the Bills are just being used to get the Giants to move (similar to the Colts using the Bills to get the Jets or Denver to move up). But in any case the Bills have some visions of a possible move up to the top spot. In the end, Bills push really hard to get up to the #1 or #2 spot but probably can't close deal (25% chance they get this deal). Rosen/ Mayfield: These 2 players are the hardest to gauge exactly how much the Bills like them. Bills have obvious interest in them both (attended 2 games a piece and have had extensive meetings and visits with both). But both qbs have enough concerns that the Bills will not trade up inside the top 3 to get them. Rosen's character concerns may have been a little overblown in the initial draft process but they are still a concern (His former HC is taking another qb #1 over him and describing Rosen as a typical millennial). Most concerning are Rosen's injuries (especially the concussions). Durability and availability are a high priority for franchise qbs. Mayfield has some character concerns (arrest tape, at time overly cocky) and this will bother the Bills some. Also, he does not have ideal size for the position and this is also important to this regime. That said, the Bills are spending a lot of time on them. Which one os left after pick 3 will depend on who the Jets like. It is at this spot (picks 4 thru 11) that the Bills might consider trading up for either Rosen or Mayfield. However, I don't think the Bills are in love with the entire package for either of these players. For that reason, I believe the Bills would be outbid by other teams that may be in "love" with Mayfield or Rosen (maybe Arizona, Miami, or Denver). For this reason, I see the chance of selecting Rosen or Mayfield as about 15%. Again, this does not mean that they are bad qb options, but it is all about "fit" and "DNA" and I don't think either player is a perfect match for the Bills. Rudolph: This leaves the last of the top 6 and the player most likely to be left out of the discussion by pundits when discussing the top qbs. Rudolph has been gaining momentum as of late. Many pundits that had Rudolph going in the second round are not thinking he will go in the late first. There are a bunch of teams that have been rumored to like Rudolph (Denver, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh to name a few). It is no surprise that Rudolph has gained momentum as I said before, he will likely kill it during the interview process. You can tell that he has spent a good deal of time around the Manning family as he conducts himself like a Manning. His intangibles will appeal to a lot of team and I firmly believe the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills have definite interest in Rudolph (attended 2 of his games in the fall) and have met extensively with him (most recently with him being in Buffalo this past weekend). Rudolph checks every box the Bills are looking for with the exception of arm strength. There are real concerns about his arm strength but I believe they see it as strong enough. Beane could see Rudolph as his Jake Delhomme (not necessarily the most talented qb but a 12 on a scale of 1-10 for intangibles). And the most important thing, Rudolph will likely be available at 12 and the Bills won't need to give up any assets. Beane loves his picks and he will need to be "all in" on a player to move up and give up that many assets. For that reason, the Bills will most likely get turned away by the Browns and Giants and settle on Rudolph (a player that I believe from a character perspective is the best fit of any of the quarterbacks). I say it is a 60% chance Rudolph gets selected. The draft can't get here soon enough.

Draft season is in full swing. Seems like a smokescreen. Bills were reported to have been in love with Darnold at end of college season. I don’t see Rosen and Mayfield being personality fits for this organization. They have a certain mentality and acquire players accordingly. It would be very surprising if this regime deviated from that, especially with the position being the face of the franchise. I also don’t see the bills targeting Jackson. He has too many similarities to Taylor and it appears they want to move on from Tyrod. That leaves Darnold, Allen and Rudolph as the quarterbacks the Bills will most likely target.

To me, Rudolph appears to have good accuracy when he is able to step into his throws (like most quarterbacks). He struggles more when he is off platform or falling back because he does not have the big arm to compensate and some of his throws end up coming up short. Because teams are desperate for quarterbacks and there appears to be so many qb needy teams this year or teams looking toward the future (NE, BAL, CIN, SD, NYG etc.), quarterbacks will be going much earlier than they should. I don't see Rudolph lasting past the 2nd round and if I had to bet he will likely end up in the first. My guess is that he will interview exceptionally well and there will be some teams (maybe the Bills) that move on him earlier than his pure talent would suggest.

I agree with the air time on his deep ball. But that is another thing I believe Rudolph has in common with Rivers. I have always felt that Rivers has a lot of air time with his deep balls but they get to their intended target more often than not. But what needs to be considered is the cities they play for. Rivers has played in San Diego and now LA. Rudolph would be in Buffalo where the wind and cold will be a much bigger factor, especially late in the season. That extra air time could be a much bigger negative based on location of where they will play most of their games.

That really is the million dollar question with Rudolph. He checks pretty much every other box you are looking for in a quarterback. Compared to the other top quarterbacks, his ball velocity (especially on sideline throws) is clearly weaker than Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen. It is almost unfair when I watch an Allen game followed by a Rudolph game. The difference between the two is huge. That said, Rudolph has a ton of positive characteristics and he may be able to overcome not having the biggest arm. I remember Rivers telling a story about when he was going through the draft process. He was asked by the Packers how strong his arm was (there were some arm strength questions about him going into the draft) and his reply was "Strong Enough". That is the question with Rudolph is his arm "Strong Enough".

I like trying to find comparisons with quarterbacks coming out of the draft. With Rudolph, the one quarterback I keep coming back to that he seems similar to is Philip Rivers. They have very similar size and movement skills. Also, very similar college careers in the amount of games, production and how old they were coming into the draft. This is my high end comparison for Rudolph as I think Rivers had a little more zip on the ball coming out of college. However, with Rivers there were a bunch of questions about his delivery and his arm strength going into the draft. Arm strength is my biggest concern with Rudolph. If he can check that box off during the combine and pro day, I would be all in on drafting this kid. Like Rivers, Rudolph will not hurt you with his legs but they both move around well in the pocket.

If Rudolph had a better arm, he would probably go number 1. There is a lot to like about him but my number 1 concern with him is arm talent. I would not say he has a weak arm as He has a better arm than Kellen Moore but is it enough. We will know more after seeing him throw at the combine and pro day. But if is arm strength ends up being closer to Moore than a Flacco type, he will fall out of first round discussion.

I think Rudolph has a chance to be a solid NFL qb. He has ideal size, good accuracy, anticipation, leadership and smarts. Watching him in interviews it is very easy to envision Rudolph as the face of a franchise (think Peyton Manning-that's how good he can be as a face of the franchise). In all likelihood, Rudolph will be the best candidate in the interview process and may win over some teams as a result. So what is the problem with Rudolph and why is he not going to be drafted at the top of the first round. (1)There are obvious questions about the style of offense he played in at OKS and how that will translate to the NFL. (2) There are also questions about Rudolph being surrounded by talented wrs that have made him look better than he really is in college. But I think the real issues that teams will have concerns with will be (3) Limited mobility and (4) Average arm talent. As far as mobility goes, Rudolph is a classic drop back passer in the mold of a Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub type. It does not mean he cannot succeed but he will be limited in terms of escaping pressure and extending plays. Most young qbs coming into the league can extend plays (Prescott, Wentz, Luck, Wilson, Mahommes, Watson, etc.). The more mobile and elusive qbs can buy time and make things happen when things break down or when they miss a read (as many young qbs will do). Again, more stationary qbs can make it but they have to have a better o-line and they will have to be on point as far as making decisive reads and throwing with anticipation (this is a tall order to ask of a young qb who needs time to learn). The arm talent scares me as much or more than the mobility issue. There are so many qbs that look great passing the ball in college but just do not have the arm talent to succeed at the NFL level. There is a huge difference in the NFL as the windows are so small and the dbs are so fast jumping routes. If a qb does not have the ability to deliver an out route at the NFL level, it will be a problem (pick sixes are going to happen). Does Rudolph have enough of an NFL arm? He has the ability to throw a deep ball but there tends to be a lot of air under his deep ball. This can be a problem when playing in windy conditions and against safeties who have much greater range. I'm not sold on his arm talent as far as throwing to the sidelines. There is not a lot of zip on the ball from what I have seen of Rudolph when throwing to the sidelines. That concerns me. Can it be improved, to a certain degree there can be some improvement. But qbs can either let it rip or they can't. I would have liked to have seen Rudolph play at the Senior Bowl. Throwing next to other NFL prospects would give us a better idea of how his arm stacks up with the other prospects. The NFL combine will be important for him. Limited mobility and arm talent is what is holding Rudolph back more than anything else. Look no further than last year and Patrick Mahomes. He played in an air raid offense but he also had a cannon for an arm and better mobility. Because of his talent he shot up the boards and was taken at pick 10.

If the bridge qb is someone like Anderson, Heine or Moore, what is the point. Tyrod can fill that role and we can still win games. He is not the long-term answer but is under contract for another year and gives the Bills a better shot at winning games. Why cut Tyrod and then sign another veteran for 8-10 million. People forget that Tyrod actually has a winning record with the Bills (the same team that had a 17 year playoff drought). Keep Tyrod for one more year and draft a first round qb.

Seems to make sense. Rudolph reminds me a little of Matt Ryan (Smart and all the intangibles but somewhat limited in terms of mobility and arm talent). And the Falcons have put some bigger wrs on the outside in Julio and Sanu that have a good catch radius.

I agree with Arians in that there seems to be a higher than normal amount of quarterbacks coming out this year that have NFL physical traits and abilities. There will be at least 4 first round quarterbacks taken and probably 6. Plus, there are a few guys projected in the early to middle rounds that have a chance to be the next Kirk Cousins.

Awesome read. Best of luck to A. Williams as I always enjoyed the passion he had for the game.

If Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield go in top picks then I'm trading up for Allen.

Watch his first throw in the Texas game this year. It is an out route to Washington on the wide side of the field. There is a lot of air under the ball and it ends up barely reaching his wr. There is a lot to like about Rudolph but throws like this make me question what his upside is in the NFL. The combine and pro day will tell us more.

Allen would have to do horrible in the interview process not to be a top 15 pick. He checks every box from a physical talent standpoint and that is rare. When all said and done he probably is in top 5. Look how fast Cam Newton shot up the mock draft boards due to his physical skill set.

If I have a concern about Rudolph it is his arm strength. Would have liked to see him compete at Senior Bowl to see how the arm measures up.

He graduated already and received an exemption

What you are saying is true but the same could be said for a qb with a weak arm. The weak armed qb could have perfect ball placement but the air time allows defenders to make a play on the ball. Tom me qbs are such a crap shoot that I like to check off as many of the physical traits that help qbs succeed. It is measurable and at least you crossed a bunch of hurdles with Allen. And it is not like he had awful accuracy in college. He was asked to make a lot of NFL throws with a bad o-line and freshman WRs this year. He did not throw as many bubble screens as I have seen many other college qbs throw which inflate the completion percentage. But yes, accuracy is still a concern with Allen and if it was not he would be the #1 overall pick for sure.

Excellent post. Wilson played 4 years in college and it was not until his 4th year that he played at an elite level. Had Allen stayed another year, maybe he would have put together a much better statistical year.

I get the negative feelings on Allen mainly because of his accuracy issues. But there are some things to really like about this kid. 1. Size. Spare me the Brock Osweiler, Ryan Mallet etc.. Most qbs wash out and don't become franchise quarterbacks so there are going to be lots of examples or guys who did not make it who were big, medium and small. The main thing here is that if you poll 32 NFL GMs and ask them if all things were equal would you prefer a big qb or a small one and you would get 32 GMs taking the bigger qb. As far as playing qb goes, big is better than small. There are many other factors that contribute to being a franchise qb, but having ideal size is just one less hurdle a qb has to overcome on the way to becoming good in the NFL. Allen has ideal height and weight. He has the frame of a Big Ben and vision from within the pocket should not be a problem. 2. Arm Strength. Allen's arm is elite. His ability to throw the football on a line to the sidelines whether in the pocket or on the run is rare. Plain and simple, he is able to make throws that only a select few can make (ie. Favre, Newton, Stafford, Elway). Again this does not mean everything as Jamarcus Russell had an elite arm, but it is a tremendous asset and it allows a qb who possesses this skill to fit a ball into windows other qbs with a lesser arm cannot. It allows him to utilize areas of the field qbs with a lesser arm cannot. 3. Hand size. This will be debated but they test this for a reason and in cold weather cities it is much more important. When dealing with cold, snow and rain it is better to have large hands to grip the ball properly. Allen has ideal hand size and one less thing to overcome. 4. Mobility. Especially for his size, Allen is mobile and able to elude defenders and make plays outside the pocket. He does not have elite mobility, but he checks the box in this category and it is one less thing he has to overcome. 5. Toughness and determination. Allen displays toughness both in and out of the pocket. It may have been the Iowa game where he was being chased around the pocket and broke about 9 tackles before literally 6 defenders tackled him to the ground. He often puts his shoulder down when running looking to dish out punishment. I actually believe he needs to be smarter about this but he is not soft and his play will be respected by his teammates. 6. Has played in a more pro style offense for the college game and has actually taken snaps from under center and used traditional play action. 7. This is somewhat speculation because I do not know Allen personally but my sense is that he has rural midwest type values. By that I mean, he worked on the farm at a young age and he is not afraid of hard work. Work ethic is extremely important and once a player begins to collect large amounts of $ does that change him. Hard work is not everything but a player can maximize their abilities by working hard. For all the haters, Tyrod Taylor maximizes his ability by working hard. This is why the comparison to Russell is not accurate. 8. Intangibles. By all accounts Allen has been a positive leader, well respected by his teammates and very coachable. Again positive traits to have. There are other things to like, but the above attributes stand out to me from watching and observing him. None of this makes Allen a sure fire franchise qb. Again there are many things he needs to improve upon (mechanics and accuracy, anticipation, making smarter decisions with the football and learning when to take chances and give up on a play). Some of these things can be improved upon with coaching, maturity and hard work. Will it be enough, know one knows but he is clearly an interesting prospect because of extremely rare physical gifts. Physical talent that if it can be developed properly, could lead to him being an elite level quarterback.

I am coming around on Allen. He really did not have much of a supporting cast (constant pressure, no running game and young wrs). Wyoming is not a great football program and they have actually won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons with Allen as a starter. That might not sound like a lot but Wyoming won only 4-5-4-2 games in the 4 seasons prior to Allen starting. It looks like Allen sometimes tries to do too much and he often has to on an offense lacking talent. There are a lot of big drops from watching his games. Down 21-3 against Iowa, Allen avoids rushes and steps up in pocket throwing a perfect strike 40 yards downfield and his wr bobbles the ball in the endzone before going out of bounds. It was an easy catch and there were a few others. The first TD pass he made in the Central Michigan game was an NFL level throw and had velocity that maybe only Newton and Stafford could match. He regularly shakes off would be tacklers which reminds me of Big Ben. Allen is still raw but he is young and has not been groomed to be a qb since middle school like many other top qbs. Allen's skill set is extremely rare and it perfectly matches Buffalo (Big, strong arm, large hands) and he comes from a small rural area and appears to have an excellent work ethic and attitude. Let him sit for a year and develop while putting in a veteran and maybe we have a top qb in a few years. Full disclosure, I also supported taking EJ Manuel over the rest of the crop of qbs in 2013. He and Glennon were the only two that appeared to have NFL level physical traits and that seems to have been true but that was still not enough to make them good quarterbacks. It obviously, takes more to be a franchise qb than just the physical traits. There are exceptions to the rule but they are outliers for a reason. The odds are not very good for most any of the college qbs becoming a franchise guy, but it becomes much more difficult when a qb has to overcome lack of arm strength, height, weight, hand size, agility, speed etc. Accuracy, anticipation, preparation, mental toughness etc. can overcome some physical limitations but it becomes tougher to do. Allen checks most every physical trait and he appears to be good in the intangibles department. He has work to do with mechanics and accuracy. BUt i do think he is more accurate than the numbers due to his lack of talent at the wr position and poor o-line play. So many times he is running for his life and throwing balls out of bounds or wrs are dropping catchable passes. If he could clean things up and be developed he could be "elite". I don't mind taking a chance on elite skills if the player has the desire to work hard and I think Allen will.

This is probably true. So many teams looking for qbs this year. I believe that Darnold and Allen would fit the profile of the type of quarterback the Bills would trade up into the top 5. Beane appears to value size and we know the organization wants high character individuals. Personally, I also like Mayfield but I just don't see the Bills having any interest in him. I don't think the Bills have interest in Rosen (for lack of intangibles, leadership etc.) and I would agree. Rosen seems a little too soft and arrogant for my taste. And there is a clear separation in NFL talent level between the top 4 (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen) and the next group (Jackson, Rudolph, Falk etc.). It would cost a lot to move up but I am fine with Darnold or Allen. I don't think there would be much debate if it were for Darnold but Allen might cause some debate. I am coming around on Allen. He really did not have much of a supporting cast (constant pressure, no running game and young wrs). Wyoming is not a great football program and they have actually won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons with Allen as a starter. That might not sound like a lot but Wyoming won only 4-5-4-2 games in the 4 seasons prior to Allen starting. It looks like Allen sometimes tries to do too much and he often has to on an offense lacking talent. There are a lot of big drops from watching his games. Down 21-3 against Iowa, Allen avoids rushes and steps up in pocket throwing a perfect strike 40 yards downfield and his wr bobbles the ball in the endzone before going out of bounds. It was an easy catch and there were a few others like this. The first TD pass he made in the Central Michigan game was an NFL level throw and had velocity that maybe only Newton and Stafford could match. He regularly shakes off would be tacklers which reminds me of Big Ben. Allen is still raw but he is young and has not been groomed to be a qb since middle school like many other top qbs. Allen's skill set is extremely rare and it perfectly matches Buffalo (Big, strong arm, large hands) and he comes from a small rural area and appears to have an excellent work ethic and attitude. Let him sit for a year and develop while putting in a veteran and maybe we have a top qb in a few years.

The quarterback is such a critical position that I don't think McDermott wanted to commit to a young qb without having his GM in place. He would have had to trust Whaley to make the right qb choice and I don't believe that McDermott had that faith in Whaley (that's pretty clear as he was fired after the draft). I think McDermott wanted to get all their ducks in order (GM and new scouting staff) to allow them to make the critical decision their jobs will all be tied to instead of letting a lame duck staff make that decision.

Mayfield. He won't make it out of top 10. I just hope Rudolph is there when Bills are picking at 21.