racketmaster

As we move closer to the draft we are beginning to have a better idea of what will happen at the top of the draft. *Looks like CLE wants Allen but would also like to get extra value from Giants by trying to get them to come up to #1 for Darnold. In all likelihood, Allen and Darnold go 1-2. CLE entertained the idea of moving down to 4 to take Allen but with the Jets moving up they can no longer risk doing that. *Bills love Darnold but can't make that trade happen because teams at top don't want to move down to 12. Beane will want Giants to pull the trigger on Darnold rather than let Darnold fall to Jets (that would be worst case scenario for Bills). *Jets will have choice between Mayfield and Rosen. I believe they go Mayfield. *That leaves Rosen as odd man out. CLE already has taken a QB so they now can take top positional player. They will still want a ton for this pick because this player at #4 could very well be the top rated player on their board. I don't see Bills paying a heavy price for Rosen, mostly because of durability concerns and not being the alpha male leader. I think having the QB get their teammates to rally around them is important to the Bills regime and Rosen does not excel in this area. Bills stay put and Denver is on the clock. *Denver is interesting and I think Elway prefers Mayfield and Allen over Rosen. The #2 rated positional player will be on the board and I could see Denver passing on Rosen to take that player. *Colts run their card into the commissioner because they got extra picks and the #3 rated positional player (Chubb, Barkley or Fitzpatrick). *Picks 7-10 go positional players as none of the teams need a QB. A team could definitely trade up with one of the teams and the price might be very reasonable, but move would not be done until teams are on the clock. *Miami is very interesting. What do they think of Rosen? If they like him enough, I see them trading up a few slots to secure him at 7. If they are lukewarm on him they will wait it out and probably go in a different direction or field offers for a team who wants Rosen to trade in front of Bills at #12. *If Bills like Rosen, they will almost certainly trade up into picks 7-10. If they don't, that will mean they are also lukewarm on him. I believe that Rudolph has been the back up plan at QB throughout the draft process. If Bills failed to get one of the top guys (specifically Darnold), then Rudolph would be a safe backup plan. Bills definitely have interest in Rosen but the medical and interview process is going to be huge in this decision. I don't think we will really find out until draft day. If Bills move up a few spots, they could get Rosen. If they stay put, they will probably pass on him and take another positional player or even pull the trigger on Rudolph.

He didn’t do much better when Taylor was in as Bosa went right around Mills in second half for a strip sack. He might have been just overmatched.

It’s certainly possible draft plays out that way. Personally, I have Rudolph as my 5th best option behind Allen. But it would not surprise me if he ended up having the 2nd best NFL career amongst the prospects (i have them all rated fairly close because they each have some strong assets and some deficiencies in their game or attributes). But it only matters what the Bills think about Rudolph and the other prospects. Is Darnold the top and Rudolph very close to their rankings on Rosen and Mayfield? If so, just take Rudolph at 12. If Bills really have Darnold and Rosen on another level then maybe it is worth it to trade up. Long story short, I personally think Bills like Rudolph as an option behind Darnold and Rosen. He lacks in arm velocity but checks almost every other box. They have scouted him as much as any of the top qbs aside from Darnold so I would not be surprised at all if he is taken at 12 or 22. Whether it would work out is another story.

I’ll add that what the Jets did moving up 3 slots and giving up 3 2nd rounders in return demonstrates how desperate teams are when it comes to the qb position. No team gives up that much unless it is qb. And the jets are only guaranteed one of the top 3 qbs. But if they hit then it was a small price to pay. What’s is the better option? Taking a qb at 12 that has a 20% chance of success. Or giving up the 2 first round picks plus 2 second round picks and maybe a third or another second next year to take a qb at #2 who has a 40-50% chance? Im not sure but the Bills will have to trust their instincts and scouting ability on this one.

Point was not about whether they were a success or not. Yes, they were reaches and most did not work out. The point is more about teams being desperate and overdrafting quarterbacks. That’s what happens just about every year and we could add Manziel, Weeden and Tebow to the list. Even most quarterbacks like Trubisky who are taken at the top are also a reach. He was not the consensus #2 overall prospect just like Mahomes was not the consensus #10 prospect last year. But they are quarterbacks and get overdrafted most every year. Just saying that If you believe he is a franchise quarterback then a team must be prepared to take him earlier than his ranking or be prepared not to have that player. The laws of supply and demand apply here. Every year is a little different. This year there are an unusual amount of teams looking for a franchise qb or looking to get one to take over for an aging veteran. There are also a higher number of qbs with franchise level qualities. The top 6 will be drafted high and then maybe 1 or 2 more go in second or third. The value might only come with 9th or 10th rated qb prospects who might last until the 5th or 6th because qb needy teams already got one.

Is 12 or 22 too high for Rudolph? That depends on what the Bills think about him as a potential franchise qb. I think they like Rudolph (Darnold is almost certainly who they have at top of their board) if they can’t get their first or second choice. If you believe he is a franchise qb, value goes out the window because teams go crazy with quarterbacks and it just takes 1 team to jump in front to steal him away. Gabbert, Tannehill, Ponder, Manuel, Locker are just some of the recent quarterbacks taken in the first round. Are their college resumes any better that Rudolph’s? I don’t think so. There are so many teams looking for quarterbacks that it is a risky game trying to wait until the value is right. In addition to the obvious teams, others like BAL, CIN, WAS, LAR, NO, NE and PIT may pull the trigger on a qb if they like them enough. WAS and PIT have both been rumored to be very interested in Rudolph. In sum, you can get cute and mess around with trying to maximize value at other positions but quarterback is not one of them because you will likely get burned. I fully expect to see 6 quarterbacks be taken in the first round this year.

I don’t think the MCBean team thought we were going to be bad last year. They scoffed at the tanking talk and signed a lot of veteran players. Yes, they traded away talent but it was all expensive talent or soon to be expensive talent. If they planned to get a high draft pick for this year, they failed miserably. If that had been their plan they would not have had Taylor return last year. Last year was about changing the culture and getting cap in order for the future. That said, I do believe that they felt this year’s qb talent was deep and that they would have a chance to get someone they liked with the draft capital they gained.

I guess if we were to cast blame, it would have to be on McDermott not Beane since Beane was not here last year to make any draft day decisions. But I can understand why McDermott wanted to kick the can down the road until he got his GM in place.

We still can’t blame Beane for this as he was still with Carolina at last year’s draft. If anyone is to blame it would be McDermott as he was calling the shots at that time. McDermott had just arrived in Buffalo and was relying on a scouting staff he did not fully trust. Would it have been smart to trust Whaley to pick his franchise qb if McDermott knew he would be moving on from Whaley after the draft? Qb is the most important position and I believe McDermott wanted to reserve that decision for his new GM since their futures would depend on it.

Why leave out Beane's trade of Taylor to Cleveland for the top pick of the 3rd round? Many posters believed we should not even bother trying to trade Taylor because he was worth nothing. Beane has had to do a bunch of housecleaning and the cap situation will be much better next year. If you make enough moves, odds are they are not going to all work out. But as a GM, you can't be afraid of failure because some things are out of your control (eg. injuries). He has done a pretty good job so far and I trust that Beane knows what he is doing.

His movement in the pocket reminds me a lot of Phillip Rivers. Very similar in many ways but his arm strength is not as good. If he was able to put a little more zip on the ball I would really like Rudolph as a prospect. His lack of arm strength is his Achilles heel. If he is able to improve it enough and mask it with anticipation then he could be successfull.

The timing of the trade may change the value a bit. Eagles will likely hang onto Foles until early summer to judge progress of Wentz. If wentz looks good to start the year, Eagles could look to get value for Foles at that point since he can walk away from team in 2019. Most teams will have drafted qbs and/or signed free agents. There may be very few qb suitors at this point so the value one would have to pay may be less. I dont think Foles was Bills first choice but if they get shut out from top qbs they like in draft, Foles could become a more likely option. Just depends on the value Bills have on Foles.

Yes, he could be worse than Tyrod. We saw that argument last year with Peterman starting in SD game. I don’t care too much about players having a chip on their shoulder, but much prefer having the necessary skills and talent to be an elite qb. I just see a very ordinary qb in Mccaron so we will agree to disagree.

I agree that Foles is a more likely option for Bills now. If they don’t feel comfortable with the other options beyond the top 4, foles might be in play. Mccaron is not a long term option.

We also have to remember that every draft year is different. Having a franchise Qb has become so important in a passing league and teams have become rightfully obsessed with finding one. The current CBA also allows for teams to take more swings on qbs at the top of the draft because the salaries are much more affordable now. Simply put there is not as much risk at this time as teams are not tied to the player if he does not work out. Plus, there happens to be more teams desperate for a qb this year than there was in 2004 and 2005. The laws of supply and demand apply as the #2 qb would never fall into the 20’s as Aaron Rodgers did in 2005. We have to look at the 2018 draft. We know the Browns are almost a lock to take a qb at 1 or 4. There is a high probability the Giants take one. Jets are 100% taking one. Denver has a 50/50 chance if the right player falls. Plus, we have other teams like Miami just ahead of us and Arizona who may trade up because they have expressed heavy interest in this year’s quarterbacks. There are others like Baltimore or SD who could surprise some and move up or stay put and take one. Simply put, the top 3 (Rosen, Darnold and mayfield) will go top 5 and most likely top 3. That’s the reality in 2018. Big Ben would have gone in top 5 in 2018 draft and thinking that Rosen or Mayfield will fall to 12 is extremely unlikely. Opinions vary on Allen but a team is likely to fall in love with him and move into the top 10. It seems unlikely that he would make it to 12. If we want to use 2004 as an example, all this would leave the Bills with finding Matt Shaub who was a solid qb for a few years in the shanahan system. There are a bunch of interesting prospects but they all definitely have more warts than the top 4 (especially top 3). Bills are likely now tasked with finding that qb that slips in the draft and hoping he works out.

It’s also very difficult to identify that one qb, if there is even one such qb in this year’s draft (as there is not always a franchise qb outside the top 5 in every year). Every team is on the lookout for potential franchise qbs because they are tremendous assets to have even if a team already has one. And there is generally 4-6 late first to mid round picks that have franchise qb qualities. Identifying the one is harder than we think and is probably less than 20% successful. Not great odds but the Bills might very well be tasked with trying to identify that qb this year.

Why such confidence in a player who could not be out Andy Dalton? Bengals saw him every day for past 4 years and could have traded Dalton and resigned him for much less $. Mccaron played in 5 games in 2015 and has not seen much action since. His arm strength is less than ideal and he was playing with a stacked roster that also made Dalton look very good that year. He had an excellent offensive line, healthy Tyler eiffert, at green, Marvin jones, Sanu and hill/Bernard in the backfield. He had an abundance of weapons that he will not have here. If NFL talent evaluators thought Mccaron was so good he would have been offered starter $ from one of 32 teams. Instead, when the music stopped playing, Mccaron was left without a chair to sit in and had to take a backup type deal with the Bills with a chance to compete for a starter position. I like the signing of Mccaron as a potential bridge qb but I think it would be foolish to consider him our starter and realistically think of him as a franchise qb. Odds are stacked against that happening.

I guess it is possible that Mccaron turns into something special but I would bet against it. The music played at the start of free agency and a number of other qb needy teams decided to go with other options and Mccaron was left with taking a low end backup salary with the Bills. Nothing like the frenzy there would have been if Garopolo was on the market.

If Bills really like one of the top 4 qbs, they also need to consider that they would be taking that qb away from a divisional opponent in the Jets. Darnold likely goes #1. So if Bills love Rosen and have him at top of their boards it might be worth it to pay a little more to block the Jets. Jets could still draft mayfield or Allen but the Bills would have the qb they like best.

No brainer. We got excellent value and a move into the top 5 just got real.

Excellent move. Getting the 12th pick in the swap makes moving up into the top 5 more viable. Most teams would not want to move down that far but going from say 3 to 12 plus other assets may get a deal done. Bills are all in and Rosen seems the likely target.

Thank you Tyrod for helping the Bills end the 17 year playoff drought.

Jackson is a more explosive athlete and Watson is the better passer.

Love this signing

It’s videos like that one that had me excited about Rudolph’s potential. The mental game will be crucial for his success as he needs to overcome a less than ideal arm. Fans get excited about Jackson and Allen’s athletic gifts just like they will be impressed by the mental side of things displayed by Rudolph. Too bad we cannot pick and choose aspects of the quarterbacks.