racketmaster

I found this series interesting as an experienced offensive coach (formerly of the Bills) gave a pretty detailed analysis/grade of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Obviously, Darnold and Allen are his top quarterbacks but their reports have yet to be released. I copied in the 4 reports that have been released thus far. Here is the link to the series on NFL Draft Bible site: http://nfldraftbible.com/qb-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/ Here is the link to the Sam Darnold scouting report. http://nfldraftbible.com/sam-darnold-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/ Here is the scouting report on Allen, Fairchild’s top qb. http://nfldraftbible.com/josh-allen-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/ Final rankings: 1) Allen - (122) A top pick in the draft 2) Darnold (121) A top 5 pick 3) Rosen (120.5) Early first round 4) Rudolph (119) First round 5) Mayfield (117.5) 2nd round 6) Jackson (112.5) 2nd round

No. Because the Bills are not drafting Jackson. It is clear that Jackson and the Bills are not the right match.

Worst kept secret, if you can even call it that is that the Bills love San Darnold. I don’t see us trading into the top 5 for any other qb.

Every college quarterback is going to have a learning curve because the college game is so different from the NFL as far as what qbs are asked to do. I think Mason gets a bad rap but he has done some setting of protections and site adjustments. They controlled tempo on offense going very fast or slow it down. Is he going to be asked to do more at the NFL level? For sure but I think he is smart enough and he mastered the system he was asked to perform in at the college level. Many of the spread concepts have made there way to the NFL and most college qbs don’t huddle and take but a few snaps from under center while in college. But there too the NFL is moving the way of the college game. A lot of folks love Mahomes (I like him too) and give Rudolph grief for being system qbs. What about Goff? If you have a smart OC and the qb has the tools and is smart enough, then it can work. That’s why the interview and whiteboard process is so important. It allows teams to figure out what qbs were asked to do and what they are capable of learning.

Wish him the best as he gave us a few very good seasons at a reasonable price. At his age, I was expecting a decline in his play and I don't think he will be a huge loss as far as ability and performance. However, his nasty attitude and aggressive style of play might be missed.

UPDATED PORTION 4/10/18: We are almost 2 weeks away from the draft now and things are starting to become a little clearer. What we know: (1) Bills are drafting a QB in round 1 and (2) Bills prefer a big, strong, competitive, dedicated, at least some mobile qb but one that is a consistent pocket passer. Who are the top candidates in round 1? The answer is still the same (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph). And of the top 6, I think we can eliminate 2 of them, Jackson and Allen. Why? Allen has all the physical attributes the Bills are looking for and has excellent character as well. But it is clear that they Bills have not spent much time on Allen and they must be bothered by his pocket presence, accuracy and decision-making. If the updated version of Dean Kindig's (scouting the Bills scouts) is correct, then the Bills attended the following games of the top 6: Darnold (3), Rosen (2). Mayfield (2), Rudolph (2), Jackson (1) and Allen (0). This is a bit of a change as it had been reported previously that the Bills attended 1 of Allen's games. But 1 or none, still shows the Bills overall lack of interest in Allen. A few weeks ago, the Allen and Buffalo loves him rumors started circulating around the draft community and it appeared that Bills scouts were deliberately putting that information out there. To me, it was an obvious smokescreen. Maybe the Bills had some interest in Allen but not in the top half of round 1 where he would need to be selected. It could also be that the Bills know the Browns want Allen and there is nothing they can do with them at #1 and #4. Whatever, the case may be the Bills have not shown enough interest in Allen to lead me to believe they would risk trading a bunch of assets to move up and get him. Jackson is the other qb we can eliminate from contention. As stated in the original post, Jackson is not a fit for what the Bills are looking for and nothing has changed since that time (if anything it is even more obvious). They have moved on from Tyrod and the Bills brass have not had the extensive meetings they have had with the other top candidates. Whether that is due to lack of interest on the Bills part or scheduling issues with Jackson's mother being his agent. In any case, the Bills attended only 1 of Jackson's games live. And if there is a candidate that the Bills would want to test on the whiteboard and through watching extensive film with, it is Jackson. It has been reported that Jackson did not impress in interviews at the combine and his 13 wonderlic score did him no favors. Jackson could end up being the most productive qb of the bunch (at least for the first few years) but it is extremely unlikely that it will be with the Bills. They want a consistent pocket passing qb (Bills envision a long term answer at qb and they see long term success coming from consistent pocket passers). That is not Jackson's game as he relies far too much on his legs. I can't emphasize this enough, the Bills are not purposely avoiding Jackson in order to fake other teams out. This is an extremely important decision and they are not drafting a qb without having gone through extensive whiteboard, interviews and film study with the candidates. They have had short interviews with but not the extensive ones. This regime values information and will want to know virtually everything about the player they select. Who does it leave: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. I think there is little doubt at this point that Buffalo's top choice would be Darnold. They loved him in the fall and attended 3 of his games (more than any other qb). As stated in the original post, Darnold checks all the boxes of what the Bills are looking for in a qb. The only problem is, how do the Bills get to 1 or 2 because that is the only way they would be able to draft him. The Bills are visiting with Darnold this week and like others I do not believe they would be wasting their time meeting with him if they did not have some plan to trade up. And I do believe the Bills would be willing to pay a hefty price for Darnold. The question will be if they can get Cleveland of the Giants to bite. I believe the reports that the Giants only want Darnold and would otherwise take a player at another position. And if that is the case, the Bills won't be able to trade with the Giants or would have to significantly overpay in order to get the Giants to move off Darnold. It might be more possible that the Bills get a deal with Cleveland because I do believe the many reports that they love Allen. I believe Cleveland is looking for ways to get Allen but also get some extra picks out of the deal (it would help them justify taking Allen over Darnold if they could get extra assets). Ideally, they probably want the Giants to pay them a second and third to move up to #1. I think they have been trying to get Gettleman to pay assets to move up 1 spot but they have gotten no where so far. Maybe the Bills are just being used to get the Giants to move (similar to the Colts using the Bills to get the Jets or Denver to move up). But in any case the Bills have some visions of a possible move up to the top spot. In the end, Bills push really hard to get up to the #1 or #2 spot but probably can't close deal (25% chance they get this deal). Rosen/ Mayfield: These 2 players are the hardest to gauge exactly how much the Bills like them. Bills have obvious interest in them both (attended 2 games a piece and have had extensive meetings and visits with both). But both qbs have enough concerns that the Bills will not trade up inside the top 3 to get them. Rosen's character concerns may have been a little overblown in the initial draft process but they are still a concern (His former HC is taking another qb #1 over him and describing Rosen as a typical millennial). Most concerning are Rosen's injuries (especially the concussions). Durability and availability are a high priority for franchise qbs. Mayfield has some character concerns (arrest tape, at time overly cocky) and this will bother the Bills some. Also, he does not have ideal size for the position and this is also important to this regime. That said, the Bills are spending a lot of time on them. Which one os left after pick 3 will depend on who the Jets like. It is at this spot (picks 4 thru 11) that the Bills might consider trading up for either Rosen or Mayfield. However, I don't think the Bills are in love with the entire package for either of these players. For that reason, I believe the Bills would be outbid by other teams that may be in "love" with Mayfield or Rosen (maybe Arizona, Miami, or Denver). For this reason, I see the chance of selecting Rosen or Mayfield as about 15%. Again, this does not mean that they are bad qb options, but it is all about "fit" and "DNA" and I don't think either player is a perfect match for the Bills. Rudolph: This leaves the last of the top 6 and the player most likely to be left out of the discussion by pundits when discussing the top qbs. Rudolph has been gaining momentum as of late. Many pundits that had Rudolph going in the second round are not thinking he will go in the late first. There are a bunch of teams that have been rumored to like Rudolph (Denver, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh to name a few). It is no surprise that Rudolph has gained momentum as I said before, he will likely kill it during the interview process. You can tell that he has spent a good deal of time around the Manning family as he conducts himself like a Manning. His intangibles will appeal to a lot of team and I firmly believe the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills have definite interest in Rudolph (attended 2 of his games in the fall) and have met extensively with him (most recently with him being in Buffalo this past weekend). Rudolph checks every box the Bills are looking for with the exception of arm strength. There are real concerns about his arm strength but I believe they see it as strong enough. Beane could see Rudolph as his Jake Delhomme (not necessarily the most talented qb but a 12 on a scale of 1-10 for intangibles). And the most important thing, Rudolph will likely be available at 12 and the Bills won't need to give up any assets. Beane loves his picks and he will need to be "all in" on a player to move up and give up that many assets. For that reason, the Bills will most likely get turned away by the Browns and Giants and settle on Rudolph (a player that I believe from a character perspective is the best fit of any of the quarterbacks). I say it is a 60% chance Rudolph gets selected. This is my best guess and the draft can't get here soon enough.

I don’t believe Bills will be able to get to 1or 2 in order to secure Darnold. Price will be too high and Rudolph is a perfect fit for this regime. He would be a virtual lock for a top 3 pick if he had more arm strength. I think he has just enough to get the job done and he checks virtually every other box. Best in pocket movement out of this qb class.

Redskins were also reported to be interested in Rudolph as well. There are enough teams that are completely desperate for a qb or looking to find a younger/cheaper alternative to replace an aging veteran or average qb. I am confident 6 qbs will go in round 1

Your right, forgot about that policy. Maybe Beane and McDermott could just invite Rudolph outside to play a game of catch. Lol

Makes sense. I don’t think it would be a bad idea if the Bills were to test his arm outside to see how he reacts (especially considering the weather we have currently will be similar to November and December games). Every bit of information on these guys helps.

I have no problem with Rudolph, especially if the Bills test his arm during his visit (maybe take him outside this weekend and let him throw a little) and he passes their threshold. To me, Rudolph has the best in pocket movement of the top 6. He is able to slide and step up in the pocket like a franchise qb should. He is also smart, mature, competitive and could turn into a very good leader. If you listen to Rudolph in interviews, he has that “it” quality as far as leadership and personality. He just acts and talks like a franchise qb. He is experienced and has decent accuracy. He does have good deep ball accuracy and I like that he is not afraid to throw a back shoulder or jump ball to his bigger wr (we have Benjamin). My only question has to do with his arm strength. It has always concerned me. If Rudolph gets off platform he has a tough time throwing and accurate pass with velocity. This would be a disaster if it were not for his ability to maneuver in the pocket. Manning and Brady mastered in pocket movement and are not very good throwing off platform like a Rodgers. So if Rudolph could progress in his pocket movement he could still find success. Overall, I think Rudolph has a reasonable chance to be a franchise qb. He is more likely to end up at the Dalton/Flacco level of play but that’s not too bad. I think we might have to take him at 12 or slide back just a few picks. There are a ton of teams looking for qbs and after the top 4, Rudolph might be the next best option. Waiting until 22 could allow other teams to move up just in front of us. If the Bills test him and believe he can be the guy, don’t get to cute and make sure you get him. And the nice thing would be that we still have a lot of early picks to fill in holes.

I totally understand your point of view and agree we would not be a very good team next year. But it is more important to get the qb position right. If the team believes Darnold is the best fit then pay the price. It will hurt but the team broke the playoff drought so there could be a little more patience from fan base. Plus, bills will be in much better shape with the cap next year and they may be able to plug a bunch of holes with solid free agent signings like Poyer and Hyde. Think of it this way, you need to buy a pair of running shoes. You try on a pair that fits you just right but they are really expensive. You are an avid runner and really need good shoes. You see a few less expensive pairs but they don’t fit as well. You could buy the cheaper pair but end up looking for another shoe a few weeks later because you are not happy. If possible (may not even be an option), Bills might want to just bite the bullet and go with the qb they feel most comfortable with because of the importance of the position.

I’m at the point where I don’t care if the Bills give up all of their picks this year for #2, if it is Sam Darnold. He’s the apple of the Bills eye and who will care about those 2nd and 3rd round picks 5-10 years later. If you think he is the guy who can be here for the next 15 years, there will be plenty of future drafts to build around him.

Jackson is the only QB of the top 6 that I would be surprised if the Bills ended up drafting. Jackson does not seem to be a fit for what the Bills are looking for in a long-term frachise quarterback (Bills have talked about size, drop back passing league, moved on from Tyrod etc.). A team will draft Jackson high because he is talented but I just don't see it being the Bills. I would not trash the pick of Jackson if it were to happen because the Bills management has my trust at this point. Plus, the kid has some tremendous ability and it is possible he could develop into a top qb. However, I have serious concerns about Jackson's ability to develop at the NFL level. I was immediately concerned about his mental capabilities when watching him in interviews (it's clear he is less than impressive as a speaker). More importantly there have been rumors that Jackson has been less than impressive in interviews and on the white board. Again this does not surprise me for 2 reasons. First, as mentioned he was not impressive in his public interviews so it stands to reason he would likely not impress in private. Second, not having proper representation has probably hurt him most in this area. Agents (especially with qbs that can go in the first round) spend a ton of time preparing their clients with mock interviews and reviewing their game tape. The agents give the qbs background information on the organizations they are meeting with making them better prepared. It is all part of the draft process for top qbs. Also, the leak of his wonderlic score only heightened my concern about Jackson's ability to learn an NFL playbook (like a foreign language). And the best NFL qbs are able to digest new parts of the playbook each week as they scheme against specific opponents. If you want an example of the above watch Jackson's interview with Mike Mayock after his pro day. Specifically, watch the portion when they start to talk favorite plays and routes. Then watch Mason Rudolph's white board session with Steve Mariucci. Jackson was not awful but there is a big gap between the two. If Jackson did not have 4.3 speed and Antonio Brown like elusiveness, it is clear he would have trouble getting drafted. But good thing for Jackson is that he has that great ability to run away and make players miss. Jackson does not have to read coverage as quickly or even have the depth of knowledge of a playbook that say a Mason Rudolph will need. Because Jackson has the ability to still make a play even if he misses a read and guys like Rudolph and Rosen have to be on point all the time or they will be sacked. But like Tyrod, Jackson's mobility can be a positive and negative. There are teams that will match up well with Jackson's abilities and be able to force him to stay in the pocket. And that is where he will likely struggle. I envision Jackson as a boom and bust player. At the start of his career he will have some big games and bad games depending on how defenses are able to match up and whether they stay discplined. The key will be can he develop his in the pocket passing over time. That will be the only way Jackson will be able to get over the hump and become a consistent top performer at the position. That part will take time and I just don't see our organization looking to go that route. But there will be teams like the Cardinals or Chargers who might be a better fit.

It’s hard to trust a measurement that has Danny Wuefferl that high. Lol He had one of the weakest arms I’ve ever seen in the NFL. I like stats but it can be a dangerous game using college stats to project NFL success. Their are 22 players on the field at a time and there is only a small percentage of them who are actually NFL quality players. There is no consistency amongst the players on the field. At any given time there could be a future all pro playing next to a future Sales Manager. We have seen college qbs with tremendous college stats fail in the NFL and we have seen college qbs with less than adequate stats excel in the NFL. Allen has a chance to succeed because he has a rare combination of NFL level physical traits. He also has intelligence and work ethic making it possible for him to fully take advantage of his skill set. No guarantees of success but the hate for Allen by some fans seems over the top. Personally, I’d probably take Darnold and Mayfield over Allen but he would be my 3rd choice over Rosen (mostly because of serious durability concerns as well as whether he has enough competive DNA in him).

Kyle Boller and Allen share some similarities but Allen is still the bigger stronger player. Boller surprised scouts by showing up at combine at 234lbs and I don’t believe he continued playing at that weight. Plus, Boller had a 48% completion rate in college as compared to Allen’s 56%. That alone should end the discussion because that would be like ignoring the completion percentage between Allen and Rosen. Similar speed but Allen scored a 37 on wonderlic to Boller’s 27. There are also more differences in their background but the point is Allen is a better overall prospect. Allen may still fail but so could any of these qbs. And as side note, Boller has been listed at 220lbs on NFL.com for his career stats and that weight is much more indicative of the player I saw play in the NFL. The combine weight was manufactured weight and did not last throughout his playing career. Allen is country strong and has a BIg Ben frame. He will likely be in the 240s as far as weight as his career goes along and would never play at 220lbs.

Remember, Russell lacked work ethic and once he got paid he decided to not put in the work. If he had the right mental focus we may not be using him as an example of a bust. Fitz made poor decisions and lacked arm talent. He had to throw his entire weight into his throws to put zip on it and when he could not step up the ball had too much air under it. But he was extremely smart and could read coverages quickly.

It's still not the same. It would be like saying Big Ben and Derek Carr have the same body type. Allen has the ability to shake defenders off him because he is so big and strong. They may not learn Brady like patience but some patience can go a long way like with Favre. He still made the occasional bone headed decision right to the end of his career but who is not drafting Favre if you could go back in time. And what about Stafford, he has definitely improved his patience and completion percentage by about 5% during the past 3 years. It can happen but you choose to not believe it.

This is something scouts, coaches and general managers are going to have to figure out. They get to sit down with the kid and his college coaches and they can piece this together better than we can. But Favre struggled with accuracy and decision making. It is pretty common for players with rare arm talent to want to force balls into places they should probably avoid (that's because they can sometimes get away with it). If they can learn some patience, then they have a chance to be elite.

There is no question that Allen is a better athlete and has a stronger arm. It's like saying the 4.5 guy is the same as the 4.3 player. They are both fast but there is still a difference and I don't think posters understand how rare the combination of traits Allen has. He is a very unique package and it is not hard to see why NFL coaches would want to take a chance on a special talent.

Boller was 6'3 and Allen is 6'5. His arm talent was close but there are plenty of analysts that think Allen has the strongest arm ever. Freeman did not seem to have the dedication and work ethic. Hackenburg does not have the mobility that Allen has.

jrober, tell me something else about Allen's character, leadership, dedication, family history, physical traits, physical ability that will cause him to fail other than accuracy (as determined by 56.1%)? There does not seem to be another issue or flag surrounding him. Darnold - turnover prone Rosen - difficult personality and durability concerns Mayfield - lack of height and attitude concerns Jackson - accuracy issues, 13 wonderlic Rudolph - limited arm strength All these guys have issues and they all have positive traits. I just don't understand why Allen seems to be an obvious bust and the above qbs are considered much safer options.

I just discussed Locker whose career was cut short by injuries. None of the above players had the complete package of physical traits and good character. When did anyone ever say that EJ Manuel had one of the strongest arms ever to play the game of football? They are on a different level as far as arm strength.

I agree that it is pretty rare to find guys that are sub 60% that have success in the NFL. But we are also talking about a rare talent in Josh Allen and there are not many qbs to compare him to by definition because his traits are so rare. You might occasionally get a player with his arm talent but then he is also a statue. Or you may get the arm talent and mobility but they lack work ethic and dedication. Is there bust potential, for sure. Does the accuracy concern me, for sure it does. But are there some reasonable explanations for the lower percentage, for sure. Jake Locker is close but he never had the rare arm talent that Allen has and his career was marred by injuries. But I'll give you that Locker is a pretty close comparison. He was a 54% rate in college.

Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions. If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed? I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail.