racketmaster

I would expect Peterman to be with the Bills for the duration of his 4 year rookie contract. His salary is low and his performance should improve as he gains experience. I see no reason he could not develop into a cheaper AJ Mccaron.

Makes sense, summaries probably would have been the way to go. I know in past years (on the previous message board) I would get some grief from posters if I did not copy the article because they did not want to open up the links at work. Good to know for the future. If I was to ever do such a detailed report, I would definitely separate size from athleticism. They are important enough qualities to have their own categories. It seems clear that Fairchild puts more emphasis on what goes on in the pocket than the ability to run.

That is interesting. His analysis is very detailed and appears to be a solid assessment of each of the prospects (as you would expect from someone with his experience). But the grading system does seem odd. A small point difference leaves one prospect as a second rounder while another is seen as a top 5 pick. Overall, what I like about it is that it gives us some idea of what NFL coaches would be seeing when evaluating these guys. Again, it is subjective and just one person's evaluation.

Scouting is subjective. It seems Fairchild values prototypical qb size in a qb which is pretty common. It is odd that he lumped the two categories together considering how many other categories he scores in his analysis. So Rosen had high marks for prototypical size and decent athleticism while Jackson was seen as a tremendous athlete who has less than ideal size and tends to play small from within the pocket. Fairchild appears to put more value in the pocket size as opposed to overall athleticism.

I corrected the original post by removing the copied portions. Does anyone know if we are permitted to post parts of an article? Not sure where the line is drawn.

Here is link to the Sam Darnold scouting report. http://nfldraftbible.com/sam-darnold-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/

Gentry was an undrafted free agent that was waived like 3 or 4 times by the Bears last year. Evans was a top 10 pick. They are nothing alike as far as wr talents.

This is your opinion and I completely disagree with comparing Allen to Jones. Sure they compare well physically but Cardale was known as a goofball and did not take his craft seriously. That makes a big difference. There are major physical differences between Losman/Boller and Allen. Allen has 2-3 inches on them and weighs 20lbs more. There are more differences which have been pointed out in previous threads. I feel like I have wasted too much time already because people are dug in and see what they want to see. I am no Allen homer and he may end up busting but it also would not entirely shock me if he ended up having a career like Stafford or a Favre (who have more in common with Allen as far as traits/stats than Losman and Boller).

Jackson threads are like Allen threads in that there is little room for middle ground with extreme positions on either side taking up most of the space.

Great perspective from someone that follows the team closely. Never understood the hatred for Allen by so many. Yes, there are significant concerns but he does have some rare qualities.

Not sure what to make of this. It is pretty late in the game and you would have to think the Bills already have the order of their quarterbacks pretty much set. We are a week and a half away. If he was a priority target at the most important position, you would think that you would want him in earlier to get a better judgment on him. At the same time, Allen may not have been able to meet with the Bills due to scheduling conflicts. Plus, it was pointed out to me today that Allen had met with the Bills for a workout in March. I guess we will just have to wait until the 26th.

Cousins had 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions during spot duty his first 2 years. I'm not banking on Peterman to be our franchise qb but I see no reason he can't reach the level of AJ McCaron. It is still very early in his career and we really should not make a definitive judgment on his career after 1 year of limited action.

I think we should be careful about declaring who ran the most complicated offense in college. It's possible that Jackson was tasked with running the most complicated offense but we really don't know unless we were privy to meeting with the coaches of all the top qbs as well as the qbs themselves to determine what was asked of them and how well they knew the offense. For example, two quarterbacks might both be asked to run a WCO but because of their abilities, they may be operating within the offense differently. Were they permitted to audible? Could they and did they set protections? How much verbage is involved with their play calls? Allen ran the same offense that Carson Wentz ran in college but what was asked of them and how they operated in that offense might have been different. I see this a lot in posts "Jackson ran a complicated offense" and "The Erhardt/Perkins offense is the same that Tom Brady runs in New England". And while this may be true, we don't actually know what this means. Did Petrino really challenge Jackson or was the offense simplified? I don't know the answers to that question. I think it is hard for any fan to be able to seriously tell if Jackson's knowledge and responsibilities exceeded the other quarterbacks in this draft class.

Interesting. Did not see this visit in the list I have been keeping an eye on.

You probably answered this already but when did they have a workout with him?

Neither Allen nor Jackson were in for visits or had a pre-draft workout. Highly unlikely Bills targrt either player. The common denominator between the two is a low completion percentage (accuracy concerns) and being physical freaks. Both are also seen as raw talents that need time to develop. This regime may just prefer players that are more ready to perform early. They have had combine and/or Senior Bowl interviews but not the extensive in depth meetings ( at least not anything that I have seen reported).

It has been reported that the Bills have met with Jackson 1 time at the combine. These are usually quick interview sessions and I can’t imagine this regime drafting Jackson in the first round without an in depth interview and whiteboard session. The same and goes for Allen whom the Bills were reported to have met one time at the Senior Bowl. The Bills have had pre draft visits or private workouts with Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. The above 4 qbs are your most likely candidates for a first round qb.

There are a lot of favorable opinions of Lamar Jackson out there in the media and draft community. This is in part because Jackson has some unique physical traits and there is potential that he could develop into a very good qb. But I also believe many analysts and members of the media have purposely avoided being too harsh or negative toward Jackson because of the firestorm that Polian’s comments caused. In many ways, Jackson has become a sympathetic figure and a player to root for because he has been doubted and potentially discriminated against. It tends to be human nature to root for the underdog and since the Polian comments Jackson has been viewed by many as an underdog. No character concerns, said to be a hard worker, and the racial component does make Jackson an easy underdog. With all that said, real NFL evaluators who have their jobs on the line need to make objective judgments. And I believe in the private draft rooms of each team there have been serious debates about whether Jackson can make it as a qb. Why do I say that? Because there were some serious criticisms of Jackson’s ability to become a good NFL qb (most all of which took place before Polian’s comments). Here is a sample: - Albert Breer writes… “The evaluators I’ve spoken with have questions about his instincts and anticipation in the passing game, and his ability to process within the context of a pro offense, and still believe he’s more thrower than passer… He was seen as raw as a quarterback going into 2016, and the feeling on that remains the same.” - “Watson has a chance to be at least as good as Winston,” he said. “We played he and Lamar Jackson, and Jackson has no shot at playing quarterback in the NFL. None. He can’t make the throws and can’t read coverages. He’s not going to have a chance. Watson stands tall in the pocket and whips the ball around like Ben Roethlisberger.” Anononymous ACC Coach - "I don't know for sure where he'll play in our league, but he's f-ing; exciting. I could also see someone breaking him in half the first time he's hit." —AFC defensive coordinator -"With as much natural talent he has, there's developmental potential. The key will be how well his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach can create a scheme for him—like Kyle Shanahan with RGIII—so he can have success early. Then you have to build on that success so defenses don't catch up to him." —NFC player personnel director -"Well, I think the first question is what is he? I don't think he's a great passer despite good arm strength. I don't think he's a powerful enough runner to have success on the ground. So he'll have to learn to be a better thrower and stop relying on his legs. And if that doesn't work, move him to receiver." —former NFL general manager -And of course Bill Polian: “Exceptional athlete, exceptional ability to make you miss, exceptional acceleration, exceptional instinct with the ball in his hand, and that’s rare for wide receivers. That’s [Antonio Brown], and who else? Name me another one; Julio [Jones is] not even like that.” Polian added, “Don’t be like the kid from Ohio State and be 29 when you make the change,” referring to Washington Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, who switched from quarterback in 2015. The above comments all came before Polian and the draft/smokescreen season kicked into overdrive. The above comments also come from all talent evaluators and persons in the college or pro game. I doubt all the above individuals had some vendetta that made them want to try and lower Jackson’s draft stock. But if that is the case, I have another evaluation on Jackson from Steve Fairchild (35 years coaching experience on offense at NFL and college level). He completed an extensive breakdown on Jackson and the other top qbs. He did not hide behind anonymity and his evaluation lines up with the player I have seen play. The summary is below is from a breakdown of his film: - “This well-accomplished collegiate player possesses average size for an NFL quarterback and is off the charts when it comes to athletic ability. Jackson has the speed and change of direction ability to allow him to make plays at the next level both when he scrambles/creates and with designed runs. The volume of these types of plays in the NFL will depend on his durability and how much the coaching adapts the offense to his style of play. He throws a good ball and has a good upper body motion, to go along with above-average arm strength. His alignment of his lower body and his ability to be compact in the pocket must improve. This can be corrected but will take time, as will the ability to adapt from under center. Jackson is a tremendous athlete but doesn’t demonstrate drop-back fundamentals that will make his transition to the NFL easy. He lacks the ability to stand in the pocket when it’s pushed and can move radically but he doesn’t show the subtle movement needed to be an effective NFL quarterback at this point in time. He’ll need to continue to develop as a pocket-passer with his movements and ability to progress through his reads. Jackson will have to gain a degree of comfort and become more compact in a tight pocket. There is no denying he is a dynamic athlete and a big-time play maker. The Florida native has a huge upside because of athleticism and possibly the ability to be a wide receiver. Jackson will definitely need time to develop as a quarterback. He projects as a second-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.” Steve Fairchild (35 years as an offensive coach in the NFL and college). My opinion of Jackson is pretty much in line with Fairchild. He has some arm talent and he is an extremely rare talent as a runner. No character concerns so there is upside but he needs time to develop in order for him to have the best chance at success. Because he needs more time and development is not guaranteed, I don’t think he is on the Bills radar. I don’t think the Bills will target Allen either for a similar reason as he needs time to develop. By now, most people have their opinions as to whether Jackson will be any good or not formed already. I don’t expect to change your mind either but I provided all the comments above from real personnel and coaches just to show that there is likely significant concerns in NFL draft rooms about whether Jackson can ever play effectively from the pocket. Comparing him to Watson is not completely fair. Watson was above 67% completion percentage all 3 years he was at Clemson. He was a much more poised and developed passer. He ran a lot less (165 times in his junior year to Jackson’s 232 times) and Watson like pretty much everyone else was much less effective running than Jackson. I have no ill will toward Jackson and if the Bills draft him I will be rooting for him to make it. Just my honest opinion.

I think we can just agree to disagree on Jackson. To me he has some significant mechanical flaws that may or may not ever get corrected. They are nowhere near the issues Tebow had but they are issues and sometimes all the practice and repetitions do not translate to the actual games. When discussing his accuracy, Jackson is pretty good with the shorter throws and at times has some solid deep ball accuracy. However, he can miss badly on intermediate throws even without pressure. Those throws that end up 3 yards over the head of his wr end up being picks in the NFL more often than not. And the thing that concerns me most about Jackson is that he is too quick to run or bail the pocket at the first sign of pressure or perceived pressure. It happens way too often and this hampers his development as a passer (every time he decides to rely on his legs is one less practice repetition he could have had going deeper into his progressions and developing better in pocket movement). In the end, Jackson is a dynamic runner. He has run the ball on average about 245 times a year the past 2 seasons. That is an extremely high amount of runs and they are not all designed runs. That amount of running will cause Jackson to have a very short career in the NFL. He was able to completely dominate most college defenses with his athletic ability but it will be much less so at the NFL level. Good defenses will remain disciplined and will have the speed to contain him. His freakish athletic ability is both a gift and a curse. Jackson has been able to go through a quick 1-2 read and then take off if he does not feel comfortable with it. And when taking off he is frequently able to avoid defenders and pick up chunk yards or sometimes get outside the pocket and make a passing play in a scramble drill. It worked for him in high school and it worked for him in college (and if it usually works why not keep doing it). But that style has slowed his development as a passer and he will need to be a better passer at the NFL level to have long-term success. I see two paths for Jackson. (1) he gets drafted by a team like Arizona and he ends up playing early because Bradford gets hurt or is ineffective. Jackson will be able to make some explosive plays, mostly with his legs or in scramble mode. But he will not be a developed enough passer and will ultimately struggle. (2) he gets drafted by a team like the Chargers or Ravens. He sits behind a veteran who is a passer and Jackson works on his mechanics and focuses on being a more patient and poised pocket passer (don't forget about his legs but use them only when necessary). Here is a situation where I could see Jackson having some success after 2-3 years. If he is willing to work and put in the time, I think he could have a chance. I think this path helped Tyrod and I believe Jackson is more talented. And for the Bills, I don't see it as a good fit because he would be pushed into action too quickly (I don't see McCarron as anything more than an average backup). It's possible the Patriots draft Jackson. They have taken shots on qbs similar to Jackson (Tebow, Edelman). They like versatile football players and Jackson is a versatile football player. I have concerns over whether Jackson could be a long-term option at qb but he would have time to learn and develop. If he develops then they have a weapon at qb for a reasonable price and a replacement for Brady. The Patriots could also find ways to use Jackson in special packages while they are trying to develop him. And if in 2-3 years, things were not going well for his development at qb, NE could move him to wr where he would probably be a dynamic threat.

Cosell also went on to discuss his poor mechanics and awkward throwing motion. He questioned his accuracy and ball placement as well as his over reaction to pressure and collapsing pockets. Jackson possesses some freakish talent but we would be fooling ourselves to think he is Deshaun Watson who was a much more accurate and poised passer. Best case scenario for Jackson, he gets drafted by a team that can afford to sit him for a few years like Tyrod. Then when he plays Jackson will hopefully have corrected or at least minimized some of his deficiencies.

For those interested in Rudolph, Cian Fahey has a nice break down of his game. Fahey is really high on Rudolph and he gives some good examples of why in the article. http://presnapreads.com/2018/04/07/mason-rudolph-is-worthy-of-being-a-first-round-pick/

Cian Fahey and Chris Trapasso are also really high on Rudolph.

It is definitely a deep class filled with some interesting prospects. Of the 5, I am definitely highest on Rudolph (he checks most every box but does have limited ball velocity to the sidelines and not very mobile). The best trait about Rudolph is his in the pocket movements. He has the uncanny ability to make subtle slides and step ups in the pocket while keeping his eyes down the field. That trait is very similar to Brady and Manning (not very mobile but move extremely well within the pocket). My interest in Jackson has faded throughout the process. He still has tremendous potential but he has a long way to go as a passer (he is too quick to run or bail at the first sign of pressure and he is not very accurate when making intermediate throws-too often balls sail well over the heads of intended targets and they will often be interceptions at the next level). He is an exceptional runner and does have some arm talent but he needs time to have a chance. Faulk, Lauletta and White are also very interesting and they each seem destined to be solid NFL backups. However, I would not be surprised if one of the 3 emerged as a viable starter like a Case Keenum.

Sorry, was not sure how to get the info on the site. I know a lot of posters prefer to see the information pasted so they don’t have to follow links at work. But the articles are on NFL Draft Bible website. I edited to post to include the link (not sure if that makes any difference or not). He is a former qb and specialized as a qb coach and offensive assistant both at the NFL and college level. Has had several stints as an NFL OC so I believe he has some credibility in this area. He certainly has a lot more experience and connections than myself. No one person’s evaluation is gospel as scouting is subjective. But I enjoyed the detailed break downs and having watched many games for each of the prospects I think the assessments are pretty fair.

I’m not sure if Fairchild has Darnold or Allen #1. Personally, I have Darnold my top qb and would not mind the Bills taking a run at him, even if it means giving up a significant amount of assets. At his age, Darnold could easily be a Bill for the next 15-16 years. That’s a long time to build around him. But if that can’t happen, I’m totally fine waiting on Rudolph and using the rest of our picks to fill in the many holes. I think Rudolph could be one of the top qbs from this class when it is all said and done.