racketmaster

This is probably true although I have not actually looked through the stats to confirm it. But people don't go around saying quarterback X is going to fail because he has a higher than 62% completion percentage. But people have frequently pointed to Allen's completion % as the factor that will lead to his failure as a prospect.

When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue.

My feeling is that the Bills had 3 plans to draft a qb. A. Trade up for Darnold B. Trade up fro Allen C. If A and B fails, draft Rudolph

This seems right and I don't think the hat really plays much at all into what teams think of Rosen about his character. I think the scouts and executives were much more concerned about Rosen not being liked by teammates and coaches. Rosen has talent so maybe he works out but the Cutler/George comparisons likely scared off execs more than anything else.

No, I was just taking pieces of the story that related to Buffalo or the top QBs. The execs were actually talking about Edmunds brother who was drafted by Pittsburgh. They were not impressed and liked Tremaine much better.

Could not agree more. He faced some “adversity” and handled it poorly.

I was thinking the same thing. Very few tds came with any RAC.

That’s true. I just find it interesting that so many scouts and execs question Rosen’s character. It makes it seem like he is a real douchebag.

Biggest takeaways: 1. There has to be something wrong with Rosen’s personality/character. Too many people don’t like the guy and in turn would pass on the player. 2. Execs love the pick of Tremaine Edmunds and the fit in McDermott’s defense.

ESPN link http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23374287/2018-nfl-draft-execs-unfiltered-every-team-picks-baker-mayfield-saquon-barkley-josh-rosen-lamar-jackson-more Below are the comments that are Bills related or on the top 6 QBS. Baltimore Ravens "Lamar Jackson at No. 32 was my favorite pick of the first round," an exec said. "You get a fifth-year option for a quarterback who has a chance to come in and unseat Joe Flacco in a hurry and is a dynamic playmaker. It's a genius first round for me because they kept trading back and still got the guys they wanted. We compared the tight end [Hurst] to Todd Heap, so the fit really could not be any better in Baltimore." Another exec compared Jackson favorably to Michael Vick, whose former quarterbacks coach in Philly (James Urban) holds the same job in Baltimore. "Can you teach a guy to see it quicker and become accurate?" an exec asked. "That will be the question with Jackson. The talent is there. He is probably a better scrambler than Vick. He probably has better passing technique than Vick had, and if you really want to look at it, Michael Vick was the first pick in the draft who had a good career." Not everyone loves Jackson as a prospect, or else other teams would have been scrambling to select him earlier in the round. "Thirteen test score [on the Wonderlic], and his mom is his agent," one skeptic said. Another insider bristled over the gap between Jackson's college production and where he was selected, particularly with so many questions surrounding the other quarterbacks. "We will take Rosen, whose teammates dislike him and who makes a fool of himself on TV," this insider said, "but there were only a few teams that would have taken Jackson, even though he could be the best quarterback in this draft." Arizona Cardinals "I was hoping they would stay at 15 and get Lamar Jackson, but I don't have a problem with what they did," an exec said. "Everybody recognizes the talent with Rosen, but he is not the top guy in the draft because nobody likes him." The Cardinals were in a difficult spot. They needed a quarterback, but they couldn't realistically trade up high enough to have their choice. They would land whichever quarterback lasted long enough to reach within striking distance. Rosen was prickly out of the gates, saying he would not "come in and be an a--h--- and think that my s--- don't stink," despite being "pissed" that teams drafting ahead of Arizona made "big mistakes" in choosing other QBs. Exec after exec said the same things about Rosen. One called the former UCLA quarterback a combination of Jeff George and Jay Cutler who would struggle to lead a team. Another worried that Rosen was not durable, comparing him to current Cardinals starter Sam Bradford. "I think they have it set up right in Arizona because [offensive coordinator] Mike McCoy can speak the kid's language and talk fast enough to try to stay ahead of the kid so he does not get bored," an insider said. An exec noted that quarterbacks coach Byron Leftwich, already considered future head-coaching material by former Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, would become a shooting star if he could help mold Rosen into a success. "Byron will be good for the kid if Rosen allows it," an insider said. This insider then let out a chuckle. "Byron in about a week will probably want to take a poke at him," this insider continued. "He's from f---ing D.C., and he ain't having a cake eater walk in and act like an a--h---." Buffalo Bills That is where Buffalo bet its future on Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen. "It's a cold-weather quarterback who is big and strong, not frail and little, in a cold-weather city where it's windy," an exec said. "You are going to have to throw it through the wind and he can do those things. Good job for that. He is aw-shucks, likes football, makes his team visits with sweats and tennis shoes -- perfect for Buffalo. They don't need Baker Mayfield in f---ing designer clothes, OK? They need Jim Kelly." For the Bills, this draft was about finding a quarterback and loading up on defense with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, cornerback Taron Johnson and cornerback Siran Neal in the first five rounds. "The linebacker [Edmunds] is a play-making, run-around, off-the-ball 'backer," an exec said, "and guess what they play in Buffalo? A really simple scheme in which you make plays and run around. Perfect. Edmunds makes plays sideline-to-sideline, and can run through the line of scrimmage. He is raw, but has enough athleticism to defend the short-zone pass because guess what they play? Carolina's defense -- short-zone pass." Cleveland Browns What if someone told you two months ago that the Browns would select Baker Mayfield first overall? "No F'ing way," said an exec. "I came to grips with it the night before, but I didn't fully come to grips with it until the card was turned in, and I was like, 'My God, what is going on here?'" This exec said much of the quarterback evaluation process comes down to the feel a team has after meeting with a player. "John [Dorsey] wants a leader of men," this exec said. "He must have thought Baker was a leader of men. The time teams spend with quarterbacks one-on-one really is a big factor." Selecting Sam Darnold instead of Mayfield would have felt like the conventional play, but there was always the potential for someone to love Mayfield near the top. "Do you trust Baker Mayfield or not?" one insider asked two weeks before the draft. "If you do, then Baker Mayfield would be No. 1 [among the quarterbacks]." NY Jets "It's like the biggest gift they have ever received," an exec said. "They may have played this thing perfectly. I almost wondered if they leaked that they liked Mayfield, which forced Cleveland to take Mayfield at 1 as opposed to getting him at 4. I do not know if that was the case, but if it was, that was masterful by them." Another exec thought the Browns' hiring of Scot McCloughan played at least some role in steering the team toward Mayfield. However it happened, the Jets seemed to win. "They are all-in at this point," this exec said. "If they don't get it right, they are all fired, anyway. You are all-in, and you got a really good quarterback. If he fails, they fail anyway. If they didn't get Darnold, look at the other quarterbacks. I think they would have been done because I think Darnold is probably the best one." Pittsburgh Steelers "I actually like Rudolph more than I like Josh Allen," this insider said. "Looking at the situation in Pittsburgh vs. the situation in Buffalo, I would almost bank on Rudolph's future more than Allen's future. Then, look at what the teams gave up to get a quarterback. The Jets are really happy Darnold was there for them, and it worked out great, and they need to be excited, but we cannot forget the No. 3 pick and three second-rounders they gave up to get him." Not impressed with Pittsburgh's pick of Edmunds. "His brother [Tremaine, chosen 16th by the Bills] is going to be awesome for Buffalo". Washington Redskins "I would have taken Tremaine Edmunds because he is 19 years old [20 as of Wednesday], and he is a three-down player no matter what. He can drop, he can pass rush, he can play the run. He could play inside linebacker, outside linebacker, defensive end -- you name it. And when he is 21-22 years old, he could be 245 pounds."

Reports conflict with this opinion: Chris Simms, a former NFL quarterback and co-host of the Simms & Lefkoe podcast on Bleacher Report, reported Tuesday that the Cardinals were "heartbroken" they didn't land Wyoming QB Josh Allen -- and in fact, the Cardinals and Denver Broncos were prepared to make a trade that would allow that to happen. But the selection made by the Cleveland Browns with the No. 4 overall pick -- one spot ahead of the Broncos at No. 5 -- threw a wrench into those plans. "Everything I know is that the No. 5 pick with the Broncos, the trade was in place, and it was with Arizona. And then (defensive end Bradley) Chubb was on the board," Simms said. "The Arizona Cardinals were heartbroken they did not get Josh Allen." Simms' assertion matches up with a pair of reports from before the draft. In late March, Fox Sports' Joel Klatt reported the Cardinals "absolutely love" Allen. Then, less than a week before the draft, Mike Klis at 9News in Denver reported the Cardinals were one of three teams that had been in touch with the Broncos about making a trade with to Denver in exchange for the No. 5 pick. Adam Shefter on Twitter: Cardinals wanted QB Patrick Mahomes last year. Wanted QB Kirk Cousins and QB Josh Allen this year. Got QB Josh Rosen, who many consider best thrower in this year’s draft. 6:13 PM - 26 Apr 2018

I really appreciate your honesty and willingness to take another look at Allen. More and more people seem to be taking a second look and are not as down on the pick. I began watching games of all the prospects in January and Allen really stood out to me (rare physical traits jump out). However, many on the board thought he was a 3rd or 4th round talent. I started to question what exactly I was seeing in the games. As more and more draft pundits came out against Allen I really began to second guess my original opinion (that Allen is a top 10 talent with high upside). Following the Senior Bowl, I stopped paying attention to Allen because the buzz began that he would go to Cleveland. I went back to look at a few games leading up to draft when it was reported that the Bills had visited Allen in Wyoming and he was in for a pre-draft visit. I liked what I saw again but still assumed he would go to Cleveland. I actually ended up spending more time watching Darnold and Rudolph who I thought might have been our backup plan. In the end, I was happy the Bills drafted Allen and have gone back to watch many of his games again. I remain optimistic and share many of the same opinions you shared above. Statistics can be an excellent tool but they can be a little faulty at the college level for a variety of reasons. Welcome aboard the Allen train!

Allen was 16-9 as a starter the past 2 seasons at Wyoming. This may not seem impressive but the Wyoming program is generally awful. In the past 15 seasons, only 1 other Wyoming team reached 8 wins (2011). And the teams that predated won 4,5,4 and 2 games in each of their seasons. That’s right, before Allen started the team won 2 games in 2015. When Allen did not play in 2017, Wyoming lost both games. Allen was the Wyoming team in 2017 and they were awful without him. So I would say Allen elevated his team as far as winning.

Both have a rare combination of size and mobility. Cam was a little more athletic and powerful as a runner, but Allen is not that far off. Both are good in short yardage situations and Allen may have a little better ability to shrug off defenders while Newton has a little more explosiveness. Not exact players physically but they are similar and the Bills are right to see a little of Newton in Allen when watching the tape. Both also have high end arm strength. Also very similar to Newton but I believe Allen’s arm is even stronger than Newton's arm. Allen's arm strength comparisons are Favre, Elway and Stafford. Having this arm strength allows Allen to throw to all parts of the field and he will be less impacted by windy conditions. Both players have had some issues with accuracy.

1. Scouts like Allen more than pundits and fans. In addition to game tape, scouts are the ones that have access to the most information (interviews, medical, whiteboard, teammate interviews, coach interviews, background investigations etc.). 2. Rare combination of size and mobility. Cam was a little more athletic and powerful as a runner, but Allen is not that far off. Both are good in short yardage situations and Allen may have a little better ability to shrug off defenders while Newton has a little more explosiveness. Not exact players physically but they are similar and the Bills are right to see a little of Newton in Allen when watching the tape. 3. Rare arm strength. Also very similar to Newton but I believe Allen’s arm is even stronger. Arm strength comparisons are Favre, Elway and Stafford. Having this arm strength allows Allen to throw to all parts of the field and he will be less impacted by windy conditions. 4. Ability to throw off platform. Allen can make off platform throws such as jump passes and passes with defenders hanging on him. He is very accurate on throws while running to his right. He makes elite level throws while on the run to his right but has also made some exceptional throws while going left. 5. Has taken snaps from under center and has operated in a pro-style offense. 6. Accuracy is not where it needs to be but is better than his completion % indicates. Allen operated in an offense that asked a lot of him. He was asked to make difficult throws to wrs who rarely got separation. There were few rb screens, bubble screens and quick game throws in the offense. Allen does have a few throws in most games that are just off target, sometimes even easier throws. But for the most part he is extremely accurate with intermediate throws across the middle and at the sidelines. One other area he could improve upon is the pace of his throws. Taking off some velocity on shorter throws could help and I think this can be developed. 7. Smart. Highest wonderlic score (37) out of the top prospects. 8. Solid character. Tweets aside, Allen is well liked by his teammates and coaches. There have been no off field issues with Allen. Tweets were when he was 15 years old and context is important considering there were 4 controversial tweets out of 9,000. 9. Excellent work ethic. Coming from a farm his work ethic is as what you would expect. Dedication and desire to improve will not be an issue. 10. Tough and Competitive. Allen has a hard time giving up on plays, sometimes to his own detriment. He likes to be physical as a runner and will take on lbs and dbs. He needs to dial this back a little to save his body as this is how he injured his shoulder in 2015. Allen shrugs off defenders and frequently finds ways to extend plays. He will not go down easily and it frequently takes several defenders to bring him down (see Iowa game 2017). He will chase down defenders after throwing a pick (similar to Luck) and will try to take a serious shot at them (see Nebraska game 2016). He needs to be smarter to save his body but you can tell he does not want to lose and losing bothers him on the field of play. 11. Excellent Hand size and experience playing in colder weather. He has played in the snow and the conditions do not seem to bother him. Excellent hand size allows him to have more control over the ball even in adverse conditions. 12. Threw 28 TD passes in 2016 when he had some better talent around him. This was his first year as a starter. So he did show some level of statistical success with better talent. 13. Winner. Yes, I guess Allen did not dominate statistically or at least to the level that you would expect from a top pick. Allen was 16-9 as a starter the past 2 seasons at Wyoming. This may not seem impressive but the Wyoming program is generally awful. In the past 15 seasons, only 1 other Wyoming team reached 8 wins (2011). And the teams that predated Allen won 4,5,4 and 2 games in each of their seasons. That’s right, before Allen started the team won 2 games in 2015. When Allen did not play in 2017, Wyoming lost both games. Allen was the Wyoming team in 2017 and they were awful without him. So I would say Allen elevated his team as far as winning.

For what it is worth, the morning guys seem to be much less negative today. Maybe it is time passing or maybe it is the Sabres winning the lottery. Lol

Some good points but there’s a lot here to disagree with. 1. First, it’s not that Allen can’t do any of those things you described, it’s just that he was not doing them consistently enough for what the NFL will require. We have to remember that this kid grew up on a farm and was a late bloomer. He came out of nowhere after he grew and put on weight. This is not a kid that was being groomed from the age of 7 to be a qb. He was not traveling across the country to qb clinics so there is reason to believe he can improve on his mechanics some and that he is still a work in progress. 2. Yes, I guess Allen did not dominate or at least to the level that you would expect for a top pick. But in 2016, Allen threw 28 touchdown passes in his first year as a starter. He had some decent talent around him and was able to have more success from a statistical perspective. Allen was also 16-9 as a starter the past 2 seasons at Wyoming. This may not seem impressive but the program is generally awful. In the past 15 seasons, only 1 other Wyoming team reached 8 wins (2011). And the teams before Allen became the starter won 4,5,4 and 2 games in their seasons. That’s right, before Allen started the team won 2 games in 2015. So I would say Allen elevated the team as far as success. 3. Yes, he probably does not beat out Mccaron to start the season. But I confident that Jackson would not have either, yet you wanted to draft him. As much as fans don’t want to hear this, it is a process. The Bills were not going to win the Super Bowl next year with Rosen or Darnold. This team is not ready yet to win at that level. What matters is long term success, not which qb starts first. If Allen is the best qb of the class in 3 years that is all that matters. None of the qb prospects are a sure thing so we will have to see how this plays out over the next few years.

Yes. I have faith that he can be a really solid backup.

So the Browns considered Allen and Mayfield for the #1 spot over Darnold. It has been reported that the Cardinals were very high on Allen and tried trading up for him but we beat them out and they settled for Rosen. It is clear that teams other than the Bills thought highly of him. Allen was rated as one of the top prospects coming into the 2017 season. This is based off opinions from scouts and draft analysts. He would have been drafted in the first round had he entered the 2017 draft. So Allen has been on the radar. There has been a clear disconnect between the stat guys and the NFL scouts when it comes to Allen as a prospect . Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I’ve watched Allen’s games as well and have come away generally impressed. Personally, I look at individual traits and throws that transfer to the NFL game. His physical traits are top notch. His athleticism along with his size is impressive. His arm strength is rare. He also frequently makes accurate throws while on the run. He is able to make throws when off platform or even when his feet are not set. He is tough and competitive. There are many instances of Allen shrugging off defenders and keeping the play alive. There is a play in the Iowa game where I think it took the entire team to finally bring Allen down. He has a gunslinger mentality and is not afraid to get the ball downfield or into tight windows. He is also pretty good in short yardage situations as you would expect. Add his physical traits and competitive personality with the fact he is smart, hardworking, coachable, and well liked by his teammates and you have a chance to be really good. I saw a quarterback trying to carry his team to wins, and sometimes trying to do to much, whether that meant fighting for extra yards and taking unnecessary hits or forcing the ball downfield instead of taking the check down. With Allen last year Wyoming was 8-3 and without him they were 0-2 and not competitive. The offensive line was not good and he was surrounded by few playmakers. There was little separation created by his WRs which required even more accuracy to fit into tight windows. Now or are there concerns. Footwork is an issue which lead to some easy throws being missed because he does not set his feet right. Can he make improvements and be consistent with it? He looked pretty good during the Senior Bowl game and has been working on this issue since the end of the season. Only time will tell but Allen has a chance to be elite. Or and Lamar Jackson was drafted where he should have been, end of first round. He has some freakish ability but has a long way to go in order to become a quality NFL passer from the pocket. He is in the perfect spot with the Ravens as he can sit and learn behind Flacco. In a year or two he will get his chance but he will at least be more prepared to take advantage of it. But Allen was the superior prospect as we can see from the results of the NFL draft.

Good points, especially with the analytics. Schopp and Jeremy depend so heavily on the analytics for their opinions. I don’t necessarily have a problem with this if you were using analytics for pro sports (NFL or NHL). It becomes a little more dangerous when using analytics for the college game and the using that data to predict success in the pro game. Why? 1. Because the playing field is not level like the NFL. You might be comparing a qb from the ACC against a qb from the Big 12 but they have completely different schedules and opponents. How can an SEC qbs stats be compared to a qb in the MAC? 2. The large variance of talent on college rosters is much different than the NFL where the talent levels are much more equal throughout a roster. Coaches can scheme to take advantage of a weak cb or safety that would have no chance at making an NFL roster. It’s much different on the NFL level because there are not nearly the same amount of weak links on the field. 3. The college game is played differently than the pro game even though there has been more crossover. The types of plays, coverages, reads, etc are different. You see this regularly where a weak armed qb can have great success in the college game but have none in the pros because they are incapable of executing the plays at the next level. The college game allows teams to use the wide side of the field or for weak armed qbs to throw out routes to the short side of the field. Ultimately, the stats from college performances are not as useful because it is a different game. The skill sets needed at the pro level are different than what is needed to have success in college. So i have no problem with WGR or any fan using college stats but they cannot be the sole factor in an evaluation. Schopp makes it seem like you don’t even need scouts anymore because we have the analytics and I find his thinking flawed.

What a great series!! Loved Cousins in those videos and this needs to be a bigger series next year. Allen seems to have a good grasp of coverages and reads. It sure seemed like the interception in the Nebraska game was on the RB who read a different coverage. Still need to make sure everyone is on the same page. But some people watching it may just chalk it up to being an inaccurate throw when in fact it was just miscommunication. Thanks OP

The play was a designed roll out and as soon as he catches the snap he is rolling to the right and has to drift back due to the pressure.

Good spot for him to land and eventually take over for Big Ben. I thought he would go much higher and would not have been mad if Bills got him at 22. He was frustrating to evaluate because he seemed to have everything but a strong arm. His arm was right on the fence of either being just enough or a big problem. Overall, I lean toward his arm being just strong enough. I think he could end up having a solid career like Cousins or Foles who were also drafted in similar spots.

Bulldog was not having a tantrum like the other 3 main hosts. The problem with Bulldog is he let’s Mike take over the show and his differing viewpoint is drowned out.

Cliff Notes: Jeremy White: Used to really enjoy his takes. Over time he has become a little more arrogant and elitist (he gives off the vibe that anyone who disagrees with his thinking is a moron). The snark and politics have become too prevalent. Howard Simon: Years ago he was much better. The many years of our teams losing have made him much more negative and he tends to just agree with Jeremy on every topic. I liked the debate court he and Jeremy used to have when they actually took different sides on an issue. Bulldog: Don’t mind him too much. I wish he would be stronger with his takes when they are opposed to Mike’s. He is pretty reasonable but too often takes a back seat to whatever Mike wants to talk about. Mike Schopp: I disagree with many of his takes but he can be interesting to listen to. He has gone a little too far with analytics should make every decision and the no momentum in sports rants. Actually improved from a few years back when he would almost brag on radio about not being a fan of the Bills. That is until today when he got so upset that he seemed like he was going to root against the Bills for the Allen pick. Murphy/Tasker: they get a bunch of good guests and Tasker is a little better than I thought he would be. I thought Ruben might have been a good replacement for Donald. Murphy tends to be a homer but that is his role and don’t mind it too much because most all the other shows are so negative. Sal: He is pretty good. I think Joe B was better but Sal is generally a voice of reason. Ryan: don’t listen to that often but he seems funny and can be entertaining.