racketmaster

Completion % tells only part of the story in relation to accuracy. There is so much more that goes into the %. How good are the offensive line for protection, how much separation do WRs get, what is the wr/te catching ability and catch radius, what game plan is the offensive coordinator designing. All of the above impacts the qb completion %. If the Bills wanted to get Allen to 70% next year they could by getting better WRs, TEs and pass catching backs and then designing an offense that calls for tons of screens, check downs and quick throws. But completion % does not win games and the Bills would not be taking advantage of any of Allen’s strengths in extending plays and throwing deeper routes. Here’s another example that I see all the time watching games around the league. It’s something like 3rd and 12 (which happens too much with our lack of running game and penalties) and your qb is obviously throwing. To Allen’s credit he stuck a lot of these 3rd and long throws passed the sticks. Where continually around the league most other quarterbacks take an easy check down of 5 yards and hope the recipient runs for the first down which regularly does not happen. The qb is very content taking the minimal risk and punting. That counts as an easy completion but often does the team no good because they punt. Where Allen attempts to stick a lower percentage throw in order to get the first down. It may adversely impact his completion percentage but if he hits 50% of those on third and longs he is probably doing better than the check down and hope the runner breaks a few tackles play.

I watched a bunch of Carolina games this year and would be willing to bet his air yards went down from his early years. He was throwing a ton of check downs to McCaffery (the man has double digit targets seemingly every week). He also threw a bunch of short passes and wr screens to Samuel and Moore. All 3 players are explosive with the ball in their hands and could make plays after the catch so the strategy makes sense. But the amount of easy throws are what made his completion % sky rocket not that he became more accurate. And as you can see the increase in completion % did not cause them to be any better than they had before in terms of wins and losses.

Great work and probably gives you a much better feel for all of the rookie quarterbacks. I have tried watching at least 3-4 games of each of the other quarterbacks but have not watched every single pass for the entire year and charted each of them. Excellent work. As much as some may say you are a biased Bills fan, one could also say that much of the media analysis has been biased against Allen. His “lack of accuracy” is a regular topic of discussion and has been focused on more than any of the other quarterbacks. When Allen throws a bad pass it is quickly put on Twitter so that he can be made fun of while I have seen bad passes from the other rookies that never get criticized. The analytics guys are especially invested in Allen’s failure so they can be equally biased when charting throws. One thing that may add even more value to the work you have done, is to pick 1 or 2 of the experienced elite quarterbacks and chart their throws as well. It might be interesting to see where a few of the top guys stand in relation to the rookies. It could answer the question of how far Allen and the other rookies need to go to get to the top.

Maybe but I think most football fans agree Cam has been at least an above average qb. At times he has achieved elite level such as 2015. But if we are being honest, Cam has not been a grinder at getting better and he has relied mostly on his immense physical ability as a runner and strong armed passer. However, he has declined some as a quarterback since 2015 as his physical style of play has begun to take its toll. He has not developed enough in the mental aspect of the game and with timing, footwork and anticipation. When his career is all said and done, I think most will agree that he left something on the table. I’m not saying he has to be Brady level driven but if you look at most of the long term successful quarterbacks, they tend to be very driven and always looking to make improvements in their game. I think Allen has some of that drive in him and I believe that will help him long term.

I think their playing style is similar but there personalities are different and that is what I am banking on will be the difference between these two as far as career trajectories go. Newton has always had and pursues interests outside of football in terms of fashion etc. There is nothing wrong with that per se but I just don’t get the sense that Newton is fully committed to his team and getting better as a player. There has to be some competitive drive to make a player continually push themselves to improve and I think Newton lacks some of that drive. You can see that he has improved very little as a passer since entering the league and his physical skills will only continue to diminish. I see Allen as more driven and much more willing to do what it takes for the team and for himself to get better. Allen appears to be a much better leader (no sulking on sidelines) and he has full backing of his team. Remember Steve Smith questioned Cams leadership early on and that has not been an issue with Allen. So I believe Allen can and will improve more as a passer as the years go on and he will be an excellent leader on the team. That could be enough to make Allen and the Bills regular contenders as Newton and the Panthers have been close even with his faults.

Completion % is just one stat and it can be easily manipulated by a play caller to boost a quarterback’s stats if that is their primary goal. But the primary goal is to win games and taking advantage of what Allen does well is what any offensive coordinator should do in order to best win the game at hand. There are some things that Bills fans should just accept with Allen: (1) He likes to push the ball down the field and is willing to make difficult throws and his air yards will always be near top of league (2) He is likely to never be a great short pass quarterback as he does not have a lot of natural feel for the quick game and screens (maybe he can make some modest improvement in this area because he does not do it that often) and (3) he will likely end up being an average at best touch passer. These limitations/decisions will likely result in a sub 60% completion rate for most of his career. But that’s not a death sentence. Look at it this way: Allen goes 1 for 2 for 10 yards and a first down. Mariota goes 2 for 2 for 10 yards and a first down. Both achieved first downs and both get a new set of downs. One qb pushed the ball down field and the other chose to take 2 check downs to get the first down. Both reached the desired goal so who is to say what method was wrong. Allen might be compared more to a Newton type rather than a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. Both are athletic and power throwers. There are differences for sure between them but they are similar traits (running threats, big arms with the ability to make explosive plays down the field). Long story short is let’s not try and make Allen into something he is not (a precise short/quick game passer). Take advantage of what he does well and that just may mean making big chunk plays with his legs and arm.

I just hope he declares for draft. Then I am all in on Hockenson as well. An upgrade at tight end is just as much of a need as wr.

Mahomes is an elite quarterback and a great match for Andy Reid and that offense with the playmakers they have had. Is he better than Allen right now, of course he is. But let’s remember he is a year ahead in his development and coming into this year next to nobody thought Mahomes would be this good. I remember reading articles in the summer that there was some concern over Mahomes and him turning the ball over too much in practice. He then explodes on scene week 1 and has not looked back. But I think it is silly to think Mahomes would have had this level of success as a rookie. So I like Mahomes a lot and liked him the best going into the 2017 draft, but Bills were not ready at the time to draft one as McDermott was never going to let Whaley make the most important organizational decision and then fire him. Timeline just did not matchup for us. And the way Allen played after returning from injury should give fans hope. Allen appears to be at minimum a franchise qb that you can win games with but he also has the potential to become one of the top qbs in the NFL. Plus, Allen fits Buffalo and it seems to be a great match with McBeane, Allen and the fans. I think Buffalo has found their match in Allen and I don’t care that much to look back. And the bonus is we also get White, Edmunds and Jones. Building a young corps that can turn this organization around. So Mahomes is a perfect match for KC and Allen is a fit for Buffalo. I’m happy with how it has seemed to work out and optimistic for the future.

I remember posting about this topic earlier in the football season. I believe hiring an offensive minded head coach is better in most circumstances. But there was an exception that I had not thought about at the time and that was having an elite qb. If a team has an elite qb then it is less important to have an offensive minded head coach. In fact it might even be better having the defensive minded head coach. Think the Steelers, Patriots and Seahawks have defensive coaches and have done quite well. Others that come to mind are Tony Dungy (Indy) and John Fox at Denver. What is the common denominator? The answer is having an elite Qb. its easy to see why, and that is that over time the elite quarterback becomes the de facto offensive coordinator. Also, excellent offensive minds will be much more willing to take the job if it comes with an elite qb because they will make them look good. So having an elite qb will give a team a ready pool of talented offensive minds year after year. The hope here is that Allen becomes that and he will have Daboll for another year to help him get to the level he needs. So if Allen can get to elite status, having McDermott will be a good thing to make the defense good enough even if assets are being diverted to the offensive side of the ball.

Lamar should be a decent qb option for 3-4 years because of his dynamic running ability (best I’ve ever seen from a qb). But he is a very limited passer and I don’t see him having much success beyond the first few years. Stage 1: Jackson has great initial success as defenses have never seen a quarterback with such dynamic running ability. At the outset, teams are taken off guard. 1. Stage 2: Defenses will (as was the case this week) develop a game plan to defend him. Defensive coordinators always come up with a plan to limit a player now it will be up to Jackson to come up with a counter. Even though he will be limited by schemes, he is still a threat and not all defenses will be equipped or disciplined enough to stop him. If Baltimore continues to play great defense, they can still be a hard team to deal with. The player will have success against some teams and be limited by others who are equipped and disciplined enough. Stage 3: Running 25 times a game will begin to take its toll on his body. It happens to all players and once he starts to get banged up there will be pressure to change his style of play to become more of a pocket passer (the pressure to change will come from team executives, coaches, fans, family or Jackson himself). Once the player begins to see the expiration date on continuing to act as a runner the enivitable process toward becoming a pocket passsr begins. Stage 4: This is where the player typically takes a step back because they are no longer running as much and they are trying to play the position differently. Jackson’s passing skills seem rudimentary. If we were to force all qbs to stand in the pocket and outlaw any running or escaping the pocket, he would be near the bottom as far as pure pocket passing. Fortunately, for Jackson and players with similar skill sets he will still have escapabilty and make plays off scrambles even though he is not running many if at all designed runs. Stage 5 is Crossroads: player either develops as a passer and continues on with NFL career or player struggles with pocket passing and reverts back to trying to be more of a runner in order to maximize their value to the team. This likely won’t end well because player is usually less dynamic and injuries become more likely. Once injuries or poor play begin to be the norm the team decides to move on to a different option.

Interesting sign with no real risk. Not much speed but he is a bigger body and has a nice catch radius. Maybe he can develop into a Boldin type wr at NFL that could help on 3rd downs and red zone. Bills wanted Benjamin to be that bigger bodied wr with large catch radius but he was not coming down with enough contested catches.

I agree with your sentiment to a certain extent and everyone has a right to their own opinions, but it does irk me some that so many analysts still feel the need to take shots at Allen. His comments in the summary make it clear he has an axe to grind, especially when looking at Rosen’s comments. If you had a to win a game tomorrow, the 32nd ranking in not so outlandish. It’s just the summary that bothers me more than anything and that Allen does seem to be a lighting rod for criticism. Again it is what it is and I’m not going to get too worked up over this.

Good post. I think it is mostly analytics driven. Analytics has become “hot” in recent years and there is nothing wrong with numbers as they can be quite useful. However, we may be getting to a breaking point where analytics (especially at the college level) are overvalued. And because Allen was so bad when being analyzed by the analytics crowd (those that look primarily at just the numbers), they cannot fathom Allen being any good. Essentially, if Allen becomes good the analytics crowd takes a big hit and they don’t want that. In this sense, Allen is kinda like our current president. People have dug into their sides and there is no room for compromise. So those in the analytics community continue to hold onto the numbers (particularly passing numbers) to show that Allen is still bad and the same guy he was in college. Interesting enough, many of the same people praise Jackson even though most all of his talent comes from his running ability, which is absolutely the best the game has ever seen. It’s just comical seeing these folks twist themselves up and lay down contradictory arguments.

At least he begrudgingly ranked Allen just ahead of Rosen. Rosen was terrible this year and his summary of him was much more optimistic than Allen’s. He has never been an Allen believer and that is his opinion so it is what it is. If I were starting a franchise right now there are not more than a half dozen quarterbacks that I would take over Allen going forward. Allen has top 3 qb potential and barring injury should end up at least a top 10 qb for years to come. Allen will have to become a pro bowl qb for a couple of years before Rosenthal gives up his opinion that Allen is a bad qb. Tannehill, Flacco, Mullins etc. ahead of Allen lol.

Mccaffery, Moore and Samuels are all pretty dangerous with the ball in their hands.

I’d take TJ Hockenson if he declares for the draft. Bills desperately need a threat at tight end and they could pick up a wr #2 in free agency to pair with Foster and Jones. No number 1s but it would be an improved wr corps. The Humphries kid could be a nice free agent wr too but he will likely command more $ and go somewhere like Indy.

I think there is a zero chance the Bills were in anyway behind the leak. The character of the front office just does not match up with this type of action. Plus, as you stated it would not make sense to do this to the guy you are trying to draft. If you get him and he finds out, there Would be a massive grudge being held by Allen and it would cause a rift that could not be repaired without the firings of those deemed responsible. I doubt any NFL team dabbles in this behavior as the league would frown upon it and it would give any organization a serious black eye (lose credibility and respect from players around the league because it would be seen as a scumbag move). It’s much more likely another agent, an ex girlfriend or some former friend did Allen in.

I like analytics and think they are useful but I do think they can be relied on too heavily especially when using college stats to predict NFL success. There are so many variables in college as teams can have significant gaps in talent and coaching. Teams can scheme more because the likelihood of any college team having a very weak safety, corner or lb is high. There are more weak links to be attacked. In the NFL, everyone on the field was a top player in college and there is not as much of a gap in player talent. There are many college quarterbacks who have put up huge numbers at the college level but never got drafted or did anything in the NFL. The NFL still requires a certain skill set in order to be effective and a player who lacks certain skills often gets exposed at the NFL level. For example, a weaker armed qb may be able to get away with throws in college, throwing mostly to certain parts of the field, rely on schemes to find wide open WRs etc. But it often fails at the NFL level because windows are tighter and NFL defensive coaches scheme to take away strengths. That’s where the scouts come in relying on their experience watching practice and games to make sure a player passes the eye test and then combining that with all the other info to include medical, backgrounds, interviews and analytics.

Humphries would be a nice edition especially if we could get him at a reasonable price. Then draft one of the top tight ends and another wr in middle rounds. I would not mind if they got a second tight end in the draft this year as it appears to be pretty deep.

Watching his Wyoming games you could immediately see he was a special talent. His arm talent, size and athleticism jumps off the screen. You saw (especially his 2017 year) that he had little to no supporting cast. He played alot of “hero” ball and he loved to push the ball down the field even though he had limited weapons on the outside. You also had an almost unprecedented amount of Allen critics. There were major flags when analyzing his statistics and this caused much of the concerns. You also had those occasional throws that were totally off the mark because his mechanics got sloppy. Those throws opened the door for his critics to “show” how bad he would be as a pro. The negative noise was so loud I began to question my own opinion of Allen. Ultimately, I liked the pick and trusted the opinions of many long time scouts and coaches who liked Allen rather than the analytics guys. Its not that analytics aren’t useful or cannot be trusted, but there has to be some context. When watching the games, you could see he was better the previous year when he had a few decent players around him. His supporting cast was awful last year and the team relied on him to carry the offense. His WRs got so little separation and the throws he attempted to make were often in small windows 15+ yards downfield. There were a ton of NFL elite arm throws in his tape. And some were completed, others were dropped and others were just batted down by defenders blanketing the wr. You also saw him too often struggle with easier shorter throws that gave the Twitter critics more ammunition. What I really liked was the kids competitive fire and the fact he never threw his teammates under the bus for not helping him in any way. No bad facial expressions or complaining. One play caught my eye and it was one of the first games I saw of Allen. It was the Iowa game and there was a play where there was a jailbreak and Allen ended up running around the pocket breaking and dragging Iowa defenders. It may have been a no gain play but it literally took 7-8 Iowa defenders to bring him down to the ground. He fought so hard and would not give up. It’s something in his character and it shows in his play (often good like extending plays to Ivory last week) and other times throwing the ball up to a Jets defender a few weeks ago when he was trying to do to much. He is competitive and has a hard time giving up on a play. I think most of his critics (speaking of Bills fans) had not watched a lot of his games if any. They heard the noise and were scared we made a mistake and would be made fun of by the media and other fans. But once fans got to see him in training camp and in preseason, you could see opinions starting to change. He started off pretty rough once the regular season began and he lost some of those fans who had come on board. Heck, I started to question whether he could process the game at the level it requires. But there were still flashes that gave you hope and when he came back from injury he has not looked back. With the stretch run he put together I think the Bills found their guy and most fans are on board with Allen going forward. I keep going back to this: It’s really hard to be a bust when you have elite arm strength, the ability to make incredible throws on the run, his running ability, competitiveness,intelligence, leadership/character, love of playing the game, and confidence measured with some degree of humility. He checks most every box and his flags were poor mechanics in short throws and inadequate mental processing. Hard work and experience can improve the negatives so that they are less obvious than they are now. Because he is so competitive and loves the game, I feel the hard work part will be a given. Sky’s the limit with this kid.

No, I'm not too worried about Zay Jones at present but I'm not the one who drafted Jones (McDermott had a hand in that). So they may feel more invested in his development as a player and more confident in his abilities. I still think Dawkins is a solid player who was not surrounded by a very talented lineman corps. But the point is that the Bills will have numerous young players coming up to the end of their contracts after 2 years. It will be the start of this regime being able to retain their guys on their second contracts here. I think Beane is forward thinking in that he does not want to frivolously spend in free agency now because bad signings will always come back to bite a team. I think Beane wants to be judicious now so that he can sign his guys later. Even 1 or 2 bad contracts now can cause a team to lose 1 or 2 of "their guys" later because the team can't get out from under the contract or have to cut them and eat dead money.

I think we know this much about Beane and McDermott, they will seek out players who are about team, highly competitive and love football. They believe that getting players who are wired like that will enable them to fit into the culture they have created and will do everything they can to get better as a player. Beyond that, I think we are still learning about the types of players Beane prefers. He has only had 1 draft with the Bills and been involved with 1 free agency period so it is hard to make to many assumptions. Plus, the Bills have been in salary cap jail and going through a tear down since he got here. The quarterback has been obtained and Beane is now in the process of building things back up. So for example, I would not expect to see nearly as many trades from Beane going forward. Many of the players he has traded have been for salary cap and culture reasons or an attempt to acquire more assets to get their quarterback. Now that they have mostly guys they have acquired (draft and free agency) I see Beane being much more selective with trades. My assumption on Beane is that he will be open to signing any free agent that can upgrade a position of need and comes at a reasonable price (plus they have to have the mentality discussed above). So if that means signing an older veteran lineman to a 1 or 2 year deal then he will do it if he thinks that player has 1 or 2 good years left. You likely won't see Beane handing out contracts like the Redskins did years ago to older veterans in which they were getting 4 and 5 year deals (that's too much risk for Beane). As you said, they may target higher round draft picks who have under performed so far as long as they see something about the situation that was not right for that player to development. But I actually think it might be more likely that Beane targets free agents who were lower round picks or undrafted. Players he liked in college and have been in bad situations so that they have had limited opportunities with their respective teams. For example, a wide receiver who has been stuck behind several higher profile wrs. They have flashed potential and maybe Beane has even got some inside intel from a coach/player/scout with that team that indicates this player could be much better if given more of an opportunity. It seems more likely those would be the players he would target but I think Beane is smart enough to jump on whatever opportunity presents itself.

I believe McDermott pushed for those signings and your right, Beane was not here but they are still examples of judicious free agent signings regardless of who the decision maker was at the time. It's just the example I hope Beane follows this year in free agency. Try and identify a few players at positions of need that are undervalued and go sign them to reasonable contracts. You can't expect all the signings to turn out as well as Hyde and Poyer but even when there are misses it won't hurt as bad because the contracts are not over the top.

I'd like to think it is spending wisely by filling holes with players that fit your schemes, culture and provide an upgrade in talent. The obvious examples would be the signings of Poyer and Hyde. Those are "judicious" signings that have worked out well for the team.

Brandon Beane indicated that the Bills would be judicious in their approach to free agency this year and I think this is the right approach. They have "taken their medicine" and now have the ability to spend at will, but if they were to do that we would end up back in salary cap jail soon enough. The Bills just went through "bankruptcy" and their debts have mostly been discharged. Now what? Do you stick to a plan of spending wisely and staying in budget or do you go right back to overspending and put yourself in debt. By all accounts, the 2019 free agent class lacks higher end talent and has limited depth. The market would indicate that average free agents will be significantly overpaid in such an environment. Some fans remember years ago when the Bills had some cap room and decided to spend a significant amount of it on Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker. This is an example of being desperate to just fill a hole and willing to pay much more than the player is warranted. A few bad contracts like that and we will be backed up against the wall on the cap in short order. As it stands now, the Bills could be tempted to spend big on average talent but it is much better to take the judicious approach Beane has talked about. Players like Hughes and Mccoy will be free agents after the 2019 season. They will have to be resigned or replaced. Those are easier decisions given their age but what about players like Dion Dawkins, Matt Millano and even Zay Jones. They have 2 years left before they hit free agency. Jordan Poyer also has 2 years left before his contract expires and what about a big ticket player like Tre White. A decision will have to be made on him after the 2019 season as to give him the 5th year option. It's around this time that extension talks will begin to avoid the franchise tag. I'd like the Bills to roll over some of the cap savings rather than foolishly spend it on average talent this year. The Bills have an opportunity to keep the space and begin signing and rewarding their own talent. Talent that fits with the locker room and schemes we run. I believe this is what Beane has in mind so let's hope he is able to remain diligent and execute this vision.