racketmaster

I guess we can just agree to disagree. I don’t know if I can recall a situation where a wr has been that productive his first 2 years and then just completely disappeared. We are also talking about a high 2nd round pick that was traded for a 2nd round pick less than 2 years ago. So NFL personnel seem to agree Claypool is highly talented. I don’t think his ability and talent just vanished at the end of 21 when Big Ben’s arm was completely shot. It is possible that Claypool is a complete head case and the mental part does not allow for him to let his ability show on the field. I just think it is hard to ignore that there have been many hurdles since even the second half of his sophomore season with his qb lost the ability to throw over 10 yard past the line of scrimmage. Those things matter as well as being traded mid season twice and trying to learn a new system. The effort on the blocking in one of the games in Chicago seems to be slightly exaggerated and overplayed based on watching the replays and the route with Miami last year was not great but he was running into double coverage and Tua made a horrible decision and pass as well. If Claypool is as disinterested and bad as you indicate he would have never been able to be as productive as he was early in his career. I am not saying that Claypool is a Randy Moss like talent but if you go back to the time Moss was with the Raiders he was terrible and considered a cancer to the team. People thought he was shot and then he goes to a top notch organization with a HOF qb in NE and he instantly becomes a superstar again. Randy Moss was written off and considered done by many until he went to NE. I don’t thing it is unreasonable to believe that being in a solid organization and with a top qb can make Claypool be on his best behavior and be able to be a productive wr for the Bills this year.

It seems like from a mentality perspective (immaturity/ego) it would make sense to point out his issues beginning 3 years ago. But he continued to flash his talent albeit that the flashes were sporadic until he was traded from Pittsburgh midway thru 22 season. He has essentially had no statistical production on the field since. But I believe his physical ability has not disappeared. He had a highly productive 7 catches on 7 target game for 96 yds and a td against Tampa Bay just a few weeks before he was traded to the Bears. From a mentality perspective, he appears to have lost his way some time following his rookie year. I just think that the combination of his attitude, antics, being in a poor situation (whether bad coaching, being shifted inside from outside wr or poor qb play) have reduced his on field production to being almost zero. If Claypool fails to have any further success in the NFL it will be more because of his attitude rather than his talent. When production on field is high, teams can put up with some extra drama (like Diggs) but when the production declines to a certain point the team tends to want to remove the headache/distraction (like Diggs being minimized from offense second half of last year and viewed by the team as no longer essential). I don’t think Diggs lost his talent midway last season, the team just chose to emphasize the run game and spread the ball around. It is quite possible that Claypool never really learns and his attitude dooms his career because that is just who he is as a person. But I do believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that given the right environment, his attitude problem will be minimal and that could allow his physical talent to shine thru again and he could gain trust from his coaches and qb. Claypool is just 25 and we know having high production at the wr position is very dependent on variables outside of the ability of the player (scheme/coaching/qb play/line play etc). Claypool has shot himself in the foot with his own immaturity but if he can fit in with the “Bills dna” I see no reason he cannot be a solid contributor as a wr this year and possibly hit statistical measures of his first 2 years in terms of catches and yardage. But I would say the most likely scenario would be he is a rotational wr this year that can be part of a productive wr group. Even in this scenario, it could be beneficial to Claypool’s career and future in the league to just do his job when called upon, not be a distraction.

Agreed, and in his third year Pickens arrived and was playing outside and Claypool was moved more to the slot until he was traded. I don’t think the talent disappeared but rather I believe opportunity began to dry up as a result of poor offenses, not having handle of playbook after being traded, etc. as well as Claypool’s own immaturity and poor attitude. Given where he is at this point in his career, I think he made a wise decision to sign with the Bills even if it was for the minimum $. The Bills offer him an opportunity to play as a starter as there are no established wrs on this team as well as the ability to play with a top end qb. We also have a winning program and solid organizational structure. He probably could have gotten a little more $ from a lesser team but chose Buffalo where he will have limited distractions and can get his career back on track. If he can’t turn it around with the Bills, his NFL career will be essentially over. I would bet that we see the best version of Claypool this year. what that means production wise, who really knows as it seems Brady values spreading the ball around rather than force feeding 1 player.

It seems like the majority of fans in Buffalo and around the league, see Claypool as a joke, someone who flashed early and became a head case. By many, Claypool as seen as a lottery ticket that is unlikely to pay off. To me it is an overreaction to the miserable 2nd half of the 22 season and disappearing almost entirely in 23 season. However, he began his career with 109 targets 62 receptions and 873 yards with 9 receiving tds. He followed that up in the 21 season with 105 targets and 59 receptions for 860 yards. His first 2 years were almost identical with the exception of touchdowns. That can be explained partly with drop off in qb play. What seems to be missed is that Claypool had 50 targets and 32 receptions in 8 games with Pittsburgh in 2022 for 311 yards. This was with terrible qb play and if prorated for a full 17 game season he would have had 661 yards in 2022. So there was a drop off but the qb play in Pittsburgh was also getting worse each season he was there. Heck, 661 yards is about the same as Mack Hollins best year. Claypool is currently defined by many for the last season and a half. And Claypool himself shares a significant portion of the blame for his disappearance. He was immature in Pittsburgh but did not have any real mentors other than Ju Ju and Dionti Johnson in the wr room. But remember he was traded for a 2nd round pick midway thru the 2022 season. It is easy to see the Steelers moving on from Claypool for that return as they had Pickens and Dionti still and a seemingly disgruntled Claypool playing with a bad rookie qb. So Claypool goes to a difficult spot with the Bears. Expectations were high due to the cost of the trade but the organization has been a mess. Fields has been unproven as a passer and no matter where Claypool would be traded it is a difficult transition to do so mid year in order to learn playbook and get on same page. It is not madden but real football and we often see that it is challenging for wrs being traded mid season to make an impact that same year. Going into last year, there was still hope for Claypool but the situation did not improve as Fields was still there and DJ Moore arrived as the #1 target. Mooney and Kmet were still options and Fields never improved as a passer and focused almost entirely on Moore and Kmet last year. The losing in Chicago continued and the fans and organization were frustrated. Claypool is frustrated with his role or lack there of as a receiving option and he expresses his displeasure to the media during an interview. His fate in Chicago is sealed and soon after he is traded to Miami. Again, he is in Miami trying to learn the system midway thru the season. He is also behind Hill and Waddle and he gets few opportunities. 2023 ends with almost zero production and he is now seen as a head case and washed up wr by many. This is what I see from the outside: Claypool is a talent as you just need to watch his highlights from the first 2 and a half years to see his size, speed, explosion, body control etc. He was a 2nd round pick and then traded for a 2nd round pick for a reason. He has elite physical gifts. He had solid production his first 2 and half years given the other receiving options and the limited qb play in Pittsburgh. His first 3 years worth of receiving yards is not far off from what Diggs had his first 3 years in the league. WR position is very dependent on a players supporting cast and coaching. Once a wr establishes himself and gains trust, they are often fed the ball over and over. But in order to maximize their talent or even see their talent, a wr needs a decent qb, line play and coaching. Claypool had some of those elements in Pittsburgh and the. Got too full of himself. Chicago has been dysfunctional and he had almost no time or chance in Miami. So who is Chase Claypool? Well, I think he is still the same 2nd round talent but he appears to have been humbled by his experience the last year and a half. Do I think he has completely changed as a person, no absolutely not. But many wrs are divas and/or head cases. If he can keep his attitude under control to a degree, I think he can be a real asset this year and maybe even after. Say what you want about McDermott but he has built an excellent culture and sometime the Randy Moss type wrs need a top notch organization to keep them from being a distraction. Claypool is probably the most talented wr on the team. Maybe Samuel and you could also argue Kincaid as being a wr more than a te. If given the opportunity, I expect him to thrive this year with Allen. I don’t think he has lost his talent and he now has a full off season to learn the playbook and system. Claypool was an excellent low risk signing and I am sure he is betting on himself to show what he can do this year in order to earn a contract with us or another team. Claypool seems much more like a 50/50 bet than a lottery ticket given his situation and talent.

Bills will still have Coleman, Samuel and Shakir (maybe the 3 starters this year) under contract for next year. With all the draft picks and some cap $ being available next year, I would not worry about trying to maintain a 5th round pick over proven veterans like MVS, Claypool and even Hamler (Hamler can play he just has not been able to stay healthy). Bills could always try and resign some of those vets if they are productive this year albeit at a higher cost. Bills need to have the best players on the team at every position. Claypool for example is a much better talent than Shorter and if he is fitting in with Josh and the coaching staff then you keep him because we don’t want to be in a position (injuries, ineffective play) where we are relying on Shorter to play meaningful minutes as a wr (look what happened last year when we needed Sheffield and Isabella). If you want to win this year you take the best 53. Now if Shorter outplays the vets at wr in camp or comes close, I’ll agree that he would be kept because of his contract, youth and special teams work.

If Claypool remains focused and is willing to play special teams I just can’t see keeping Shorter over him. Hamler needs to show he can stay healthy because he is a talent as well but if he is able to do that throughout camp and preseason I would expect him to be ahead of shorter as well. Claypool and Hamler were both 2nd round picks and relatively young. shorter is a 5th round pick and has yet to show anything as a wr in the NFL. Heck, his college numbers were not very good as a wr. If Coleman and/or MVS are struggling or we have injuries to the wr position, I’d feel much more confident elevating Claypool and Hamler into more prominent roles than relying on guys like Shorter and Shavers/Isabella. I feel more confident in Claypool because of Hamlers injury history but I’d like to find a way to keep him on the 53 as well if he is able to remain healthy.

There is no risk in signing Claypool and only upside. Bills need Claypool, Cephus or Hamler to step up and contribute to the receiving corps this year. I would bet on Claypool being the one due to his high end talent and ability to stay healthy. Hamler is constantly dealing with injuries but an explosive player when available and Cephus is a contested catch machine but lacks the explosiveness and speed to be a consistent threat. i actually think Claypool (25 years old) and 2nd round pick has the chance to get significant playing time while Coleman (still very raw as a route runner and young at 20) can acclimate to the NFL game. Claypool must know this is his last chance to play in the NFL or he will be suiting up in Canada so I’d expect you will see the best of what he has to offer. I understand fans dismissing Claypool as washed but when you think about it for a minute, is that really true? Claypool immediately makes an impact as a rookie scoring 9 tds (adds 2 more rushing) and nearly 900 receiving yards on a team with Juju and Dionte and an aging qb in Big Ben. Claypool emerged as a playmaker right out of the gate and showed the ability to seperate, run away from dbs and make some crazy contested catches. In his second year he has more receiving yardage but a few less touchdowns playing with Big Ben whose arm had fallen off and Mason Rudolf who is not a good qb. Claypool was essentially putting up the same yardage numbers as Curtis Samuel has had in his best years as both have been talents but played with poor qbs. Now things go off the rails for Claypool in his 3rd year. George Pickens (is a monster) arrives on the scene and plays a similar role at the x spot. They also have terrible qb play with trubisky and Rudolf and Claypool gets frustrated and Matt Canada has him playing more inside and also rotating in and out. Claypool likely believes he can be doing more based on success of first 2 years and is shipped to Chicago for a high second round pick before trade deadline. Second half if year 3 and year 4 is where people change thoughts on Claypool and begin to think he is washed. But being traded to Chicago mid season to play with Justin Fields, what does one expect? Football is not like basketball or hockey where you can just line up and play after a trade, especially at the wr position. It is hard to pick up the playbook and play fast and confident. So year 3 ends as a disaster for Claypool and Chicago add DJ Moore in off season. Year 4, Moore is now the guy as well as Mooney being there but they still have Fields at qb who is struggling. Moore is an underrated top end talent that is highly versatile. He works with Fields because he can make plays at all 3 levels and has run after catch ability. But Mooney is talented and struggling to make plays and Claypool disappears as Fields is not good enough to make more than 1 wr have success. Claypool calls out offensive coordinator and is benched and again traded mid season to Miami. Again, not knowing playbook and being behind Hill and Waddle, why would anyone expect any real success. Claypool has been traded the last 2 seasons mid season which generally dooms a wr from any legitimate success because they struggle to have to learn new playbook. Did Claypool probably have a bad attitude and think too highly of himself after 2 successful seasons, most likely. But having poor qb play and poor offensive coordinators can push a young immature player over the edge. In Miami, he again showed up mid season and was not beating out the 2 studs in front of him. He now finds himself in probably the best situation of his career and hopefully he takes advantage. He has the off season to learn the playbook and gain trust of Allen. He may be the most accomplished wr in the team as he has posted the best numbers for a season out of any of our wrs. He probably is the most physically gifted wr we have on the team when size and speed are taken into account. One could argue Coleman, but Coleman lacks the speed and burst to run away from defenders like Claypool. Coleman might have edge in vertical for jump balls but both have excellent body control for their size. Samuel is also physically gifted but does not have the size and has had trouble with nagging injuries. Long way of saying if Claypool puts in the work and is focused to salvage his career, he should make this team and probably start over Coleman to allow the rookie time to develop. If that happens, he could post some good numbers playing with Allen who is by far the best qb he will have played with.

I agree with the qb accuracy playing a role but watching all his targets there were many clear and easy drops as well as contested catches that he had position to come down with the ball and did not. He also made some insane catches so there seems to be a little boom bust to his hands. I was not a fan of the pick, but Coleman does have some freak athletic traits and some elusiveness for a player his size so I hope Brady can play to his strengths and Coleman can continue to develop as a route runner and his catching ability. He is young and if he is willing to put in the work it is possible he continues to get better.

His catch rate was even lower than Johnny Wilson I’m assuming that that wanted a physical blocking presence in the run game similar to what Gabe brought but that just seems to high of a pick for his skill set

I keep hearing that Coleman has much better hands that Gabe Davis but his catch rate was 57.5% last year which was definitely on the lower end of draft prospects. Part of the lower catch rate has to do with such a high portion of his catches ending up being contested since there is no separation. When he makes the jump ball or contested catch it ends up on his highlights and many are sensational plays. However, when you watch all of his targets you see a lot of drops and battles he did not win and come down with the ball.

In the consensus top 15 wrs, the Bills managed to take the one guy I was hoping they would avoid due to lack of speed and separation. He is a contested catch guy which is a hard way to make a living but who knows maybe Coleman can manage to make it work for him in the NFL. He is still young, so many he can learn to become a more savvy route runner in order to gain a little more separation from defenders.

So many other good players on the board.

I guess I would have been more accepting of Coleman at end of 3rd round. This guy is so inconsistent catching the ball, lacks the ability to celebrate, fumbles and then makes the occasional sensational play. I feel like Josh Allen wanted Coleman because he likes to try and hurdle defenders.

I think the 5th option is more important for qbs as it gives significant savings in the option year. For other positions, the 5th year option price is often pretty high and not much of a savings at all.

Rome had the 4th most targets in the nation last year that helped contribute to his stat line. Malik Washington had similar targets and similar overall stats but probably will be had in the 4th. I understand that Rome has prototypical size and that matters but I don’t really see the quick snapping off of routes and separation that Turner sees in Odunze. I more often than not see non SEC defenders draped all over him when being targeted. And there is nothing special that he does to elude defenders, run away from or break the tackles of defenders once he has the ball in his hands. For me, he does not possess elite traits of a top 10 wr. I would hope the Bills don’t make the mistake of parting with significant assets for Rome. If he fell to 28, I would be fine but still don’t see him as a difference maker or matchup problem. Just a reliable consistent wr.