Logic

I truly cannot believe that actual NFL refs have penalized Bills o-linemen for using a sn@tch-trap multiple times this offseason. I, a regular dude on my couch with only low to medium knowledge of football technique and nuance, could tell without a shadow of a doubt that it was a sn@tch-trap. The fact that one or more of the guys who call NFL games for a living couldn't see it is jaw dropping. The fact that the NFL still doesn't have full time officials in general is jaw dropping, especially given that there is now legalized sports gambling.

Gotta hope Benford is one of those dudes who can get through concussion protocol in one week. Kaiir Elam starting at outside corner against Hollywood Brown and Deandre Hopkins feels like a potentially matchup-altering factor.

Two things: One, we have seen again and again the "hot young thing" offensive coordinator be hired as head coach, only to discover that said coordinator doesn't have what it takes as a LEADER OF MEN to be a good head coach. So while I understand the optimism Bears fans will have, a good offensive coordinator is never a guarantee to be a good head coach. Two, the Lions, in my opinion, need to take a page out of the Chiefs' book: Remember when they were perennial playoff contenders with Alex Smith, but they traded way up and took Patrick Mahomes? That's where I believe the Lions are at right now with Jared Goff. He's a steady veteran QB who will get them to the playoffs every year. But in order to take the next step and become a long term DOMINANT team in the NFC, I believe they need to find a DUDE. They need to take a big swing and draft a more dynamic quarterback. Otherwise, they're gonna slowly learn the lesson that Sean McVay learned: Jared Goff is NOT a consistently championship level quarterback.

If you look at Hollins (the most likely receiver, who was wide open) body language on the play, you can see that he was not expecting the ball to be thrown to him. I think the only purpose of the receivers on that play was to run off defenders, and there was no universe in which Josh was going to throw (or intended to throw) the ball one way or the other. To me, that was a 100% Josh run call all the way. Ravens defender #29 did not go with Hollins, as the play was drawn up for him to, and instead rightly recognized that it was all Josh run, and thus crashed in unblocked and tied him up.

As @GunnerBill pointed out in another thread: There WERE some deep shots called, particularly in the third quarter, and Josh generally checked down on those plays. Our outside receivers are, for the most part, not getting deep separation, or separation in general. This allows opposing defense to focus their attention and resources on shutting down the middle of the field, so guys like Knox, Kincaid, and Shakir don't have as much opportunity as you'd like. If you can focus on shutting down the middle of the field, and allow your outside corners to matchup 1-on-1 with the outside receivers, and almost always win those matchups, well... It's all good and well to want Josh to pass the ball down the field more, but if his receivers aren't winning their matchups, then the Bills offense has to find other ways to move the ball, which they have done capably so far.

Such a horrific cesspool. The only thing it's good for is reminding me how awful the internet can be, and how good we have it here at TBD.

100%. There were a couple national media talking heads this morning praising him for not doing so. Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager both called it out as illustrating Josh's growth as a decision maker. Watching the replay back this morning, I do not believe he would've been able to get it all the way to Cook, which could've meant a bouncing fumble and potential Ravens scoop and score. Huge play (or non-play, whatever you want to call it).

I have no doubt that that thread is full of delusional posts and laughable homer takes, but... You could not pay me any amount of money to intentionally spend even a second of time on Chiefs Planet. Truly the most toxic and miserable hellscape on earth.

Yes.

This is a WGR call in message board form.

Dear Little Baby Jesus (or LBJ for short) Please, tiny savior, let the national media start talking about how this will be an easy win for the Chiefs. How the Bills defense is too small, the offense isn't talented enough, and Mahomes just has Josh's number. Please, sweet little king of kings in your humble manger crib, playing with a plastic toy key set and surrounded by matted donkeys...I need the media to loudly and repeatedly doubt the Bills all week long, starting tomorrow. Thank you tiny lord. Amen.

Underrated big moment of the game: Bills defense stiffening and stopping the Ravens on three straight plays after allowing the deep post completion to the one yard line in the second quarter. Holding the Ravens to 10 instead of allowing them to tie it up at 14, going into the half with a double digit lead rather than tied or only up by 7... Absolutely HUGE moment in the game. The more I reflect on it this morning, the more I reach the conclusion: The Bills defense won them this game.

When you get to the playoffs, most offenses you face are going to be very good. When you're going against Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow, opposing offenses are GOING to move the ball against you. Limit points and get some takeaways, and you give a Josh Allen led offense a great chance to win. Do turnovers tend to regress to the mean? Yes. Is solely relying on turnovers a sustainable defensive model? No. Try to limit the opponents to 3s instead of 7s and take the ball away when you can. That's it.

I think opposing defenses are rightly recognizing that the Bills' best pass catchers reside in the middle of the field. Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. As such, they tend to focus most of their attention on shutting down those players, and the Bills -- at this moment -- largely don't have the horses on the outside to make defenses want to play any other way. In order for things to open up for the tight ends and even increase opportunities for Shakir, the Bills need to improve their outside receiver position in the offseason. Maybe Cooper gets more fully integrated in the offense, maybe Coleman takes second year strides, or maybe they draft a guy or sign one in free agency. Until the Bills improve at outside WR, we can likely continue to expect opposing defenses to focus on taking away the TEs and Shakir.

My replies in bold. I had issues with some of the second half play-calling, and it was not my favorite Joe Brady game. I wanted more aggression in the second half. But I also think you're overstating it, and completely absolving Josh Allen of blame -- both for his checks/audibles and some plays that he himself missed. Lastly, the Ravens since week 11 are #1 in almost every defensive metric. They are a GOOD defense. And at the end of the day, the Bills scored 27 points against them. Yes, the Bills defense gave them short fields. Still. 27 points. And yet you're bagging on Joe Brady for the TE screen in a post above, when it seems "very clear and obvious" that Josh audibled to it.

Taron Johnson is one of the three best nickel defenders in the entire NFL. To say that I politely disagree with your take would be....well...it would be incorrect. I very forcefully and non-politely disagree with your take. I glare in your general direction. Good day.

I am of the belief that it is incredibly difficult for the average fan to reasonably judge an offensive gameplan in the NFL for the reasons you state. We, as fans, don't know the following: - what the called play was - whether or not the QB checked to a different play - what the defense did or didn't show vs the original call to warrant a check - whether that check was the right decision - whether the protections were set correctly, which hugely impacts the play success - whether the OL and skill players executed the play call the way it was supposed to be executed or committed an error - what the defense did to confuse or outscheme the offensive playcall So we can all sit here from the comfort of our armchairs, without most of that information (maybe the really sharp viewers know the answer to SOME of those questions, SOME of the time, but most don't) and say "Brady called a bad game" or "what was up with those playcalls?". But the reality is that there are simply so many variables that fans are not privy to. Using last night as an example, I think most of us were frustrated at how conservative the Bills seemed to be in the third quarter, how much they ran the ball on 1st down, how little they trusted Allen to make plays in the passing game, etc. But how do we know Josh wasn't checking to run plays based on looks the defense gave him? How do we know that Josh wasn't surveying the defense presented, deciding that a run play was the "right" call vs that defense, and then the offensive players just got out-executed by the defensive players? I'll admit that the playcalling in the third quarter (and part of the fourth) vexed me at times. But I never forget two things: One, I'm missing a ton of information (as stated above), and two, the other guys get paid, too. It's not as simple as many want to make it out to be.

Amidst the jubilation of the victory, the celebration beers, and all the smack talking I was doing to Ravens fans on Twitter, I didn't post here last night. My thoughts: - Peter Schrager said it best this morning: For once, the catastrophic failure in a key moment happened to the OTHER team. For once, a "name game" happened to the OTHER team. The Mark Andrews Game. For once, it was the OTHER team that had untimely drops, turnovers, and errors that ultimately cost them the game. That, more than almost anything else, feels like the lasting takeaway to me. I haven't seen it often. Maybe never. Hell of a time for a first. - The Broncos and Ravens both boasted elite rushing defenses heading into their matchups with Buffalo. The Bills gave BOTH of these run defenses their worst performance of their season, and did it in the PLAYOFFS. - I just honestly never imagined a day where the Bills defense and running game would lead the way to victory in a playoff game, while Josh Allen mostly looked like Clark Kent. Does anyone honestly think the Bills would've won last night's game with the rushing offense of years past? No way. If anyone's looking for a reason why this Bills team is different than Bills teams past under Josh Allen, it's the run game. It's the ability to lean on something OTHER than Superman Josh. - I think the Bills defense needed every single one of the players it had at its disposal last night. If any of Milano, Bernard, Johnson, Benford, whomever...wasn't out there on that field last night, I'm not sure they win. Defensive health, along with the run game, are the big, glaring differences this year. - Josh did what he needed to do, when he needed to do it. Not one of his best games ever statistically, but it doesn't matter. He played well. His clean game with no turnovers -- while Lamar committed two -- is a big reason for the Bills victory. - Speaking of Lamar: I must be taking crazy pills this morning, seeing so many people (particularly on social media) say that the loss isn't on Lamar, that he played well, etc. Newsflash: You commit two turnovers in a playoff game, and you're losing much more often than you're winning. One of his two turnovers led to 7 Bills points, in a game the Bills won by 2. So miss me with the "it's not on Lamar" stuff. It's not ALL on Lamar, but he ABSOLUTELY shoulders some blame. Anyone wanna guess how the media would be treating Josh Allen this morning if HE had committed two turnovers and lost? Exactly. - I know we all had the same feeling as that 4th quarter was winding down: The opposing team needed 8 points to tie it up, and all that stood between them and doing so was a Sean McDermott defense in the playoffs. We've all seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well. And if it had gotten to overtime? Well, that movie usually doesn't end will for the McDermott Bills, either. But to reiterate my first point: For once, the fates smiled upon the BILLS rather than the other team. The rarest of the rare. Call it what you want. Call it the Bills "escaping" with a win -- they did. Call it the Bills doing ENOUGH to win -- they did. Call it the fickle football gods, just for once, casting good fortune upon the Bills -- they did. Whatever you choose to call it, the outcome is the same: The Buffalo Bills are headed to the AFC Championship Game. GO BILLS!!!

With all due respect to his contributions to the Bills over the years, I would quite like for someone to hire away Terrence Grey to their front office this offseason. I'm sure he's a lovely and highly skilled lad, but two 3rd round picks would be pretty, pretty, pretttttttttty good!

What kinda b1tch ass name is "Zay Flowers" any way? Ravens should lose just for rostering a guy named after pretty smelling little garden plants. go bills

If I would've told you in August that sixth o-lineman Alec Anderson being a full participant going into the divisional round would bring about a huge sigh of relief from Bills fans...you'd have told me I was high on crack. And yet, here we are. Based on the success and frequency of the Bills' 6 OL package, Anderson is arguably as important a weapon to his offense as almost any skill player. Wild.

Sean McDermott: an objectively very good football coach. In order to be considered a GREAT football coach, we all know he needs to win a championship. But no matter how you want to look at it, be it win % amongst Bills coaches, win % amongst his peers or historically, consistency of divisional success, consistency of playoff entry...McDermott ranks very favorably. Again, the one area where he is not yet GREAT is playoff win % and championship wins. If he checks off those boxes and continues to win as consistently as he does, it is not a stretch to say that he could be considered an all-time GREAT NFL head coach. Congrats, coach McDermott.

Crosby has stated (recently) that he thought the Bills were going to draft him. I also remember talk that the Bills had spent a bunch of time on him pre-draft that year and really liked him. The Bills draft visit researchers at the time had him on the short list of guys to keep on eye on, based on the Bills interest in him. The Bills closest pick to Crosby was Dawson Knox, who they selected in the 3rd round. Crosby went in the 4th, and the Bills didn't have another pick until well after Crosby was gone. It's fun to imagine an alternate timeline where the Bills had drafted Crosby, but I think the only way it realistically could've happened is if they had taken him instead of Dawson Knox.