Logic

Two things to remember about Foster: One is the shoulder. After Ragland and Lawson injury situations last year, it's hard to blame the Bills for shying away from a guy who may need surgery and may not be able to start the season. The other is his alleged character concerns. There's the diluted urine sample as well as the reports that he is surrounded by some bad/unsavory people. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if his character concerns took him off the Bills' board.

So McDermott, who ran the Panthers defense, got hired as a head coach because of the success of the Panthers OFFENSE? Yeah. Sure, man. Got it.

I think he'll re-sign with the Vikings on a low cost, 1 year "prove it" deal when his contract is up. "Unfinished business" and "I wanna stay with my guys" and all that. Meh.

Yes, sometimes I DO get draft pick selection leak. It's pretty embarrassing. I usually just run for the nearest latrine.

Thomas Davis switched positions coming into the NFL. He thrived in the McDermott D for years. If you don't like Reddick, fine. But there's got to be a reason other than "switching positions".

Couldn't disagree more. Your current scouts have put in months and -- in many cases -- YEARS of work scouting these players. You don't throw all of that out by firing everyone. Not only is it a waste of tons of intel, it also allows those scouts to find work elsewhere and bring the hard work they did on your company dime to another team. Your draft preferences, strategies, etc. It is far, FAR more logical to fire a front office AFTER a draft than to throw away all of their work and ask a brand new front office to speed-scout an entire draft in 3 months. To quote Joe Buscaglia: "If you unload the general manager and scouting staff in January, especially after they've just concluded a season's worth of work on all the prospects you're considering for the NFL Draft, your trade secrets are no longer put away with a lock and key. Unfortunately, the more prudent business decision is to let them go just after the draft is over -- especially if there isn't a GM-in-waiting that can keep the whole staff calm in the interim."

Agreed. I also think that there is a bigger drop-off from the tier 1 WRs (Davis, Williams, Ross) to the tier 2 guys (Jones, Kupp, Smith-Schuster) than there is from the tier 1 LBs and CBs to the tier 2 LBs and CBs. Another way of saying that is that I think the depth is greater on the defensive side of the ball in this draft, and thus the Bills can land a quality LB, CB, and S in later rounds. And last but not least, hopefully the Bills realize that Watkins' injury concerns the past two seasons mean that his health for a full 2017 season is not guaranteed and that, therefore, they should plan accordingly and add a top tier pass catcher. Davis is my top choice. I think he'll make an immediate impact and will blossom into a true #1 receiver. Also, with the large contract that will be necessary to keep Watkins a Bill past 2017, it just makes good sense to have cheap labor across from him for the next five years.

Thanks for the time and effort, Bandit. Yours is one of the most well thought out, reasonable, logical mocks I've seen anywhere. Oftentimes, when you see a mock on a given team's forum, it doesn't give much thought to what other teams will do. You seem to have done that, though. For instance: Everyone knows the Giants want to trade up for an offensive tackle, and you have them doing just that. Good stuff. As for the selection you have Buffalo making...may I ask what leads you to believe that the Bills are more likely to select a WR than a defensive player? I'm just curious what your thought process was there.

I want no part of Barnett, and it has nothing to do with the fact that DE isn't as big of a "need" for the Bills as other positions. It has entirely to do with the fact that Barnett as average to below average athletically for the position. He's a Bjoern Werner with better college production. NOTHING about him is special athletically. Winning with your hands is something you can teach to a superior athlete. You cannot, however, teach superior athleticism to someone who can win with his hands. No to Barnett.

He already knows this after watching the kid play in 11 NFL games?! I wonder what he would have said about Jerry Hughes after watching him play in HIS first 11 NFL games?

Benoit is right a lot of the time, but he IS leaving out some things in his Tweets today. He says the Bills need to add two receivers to Sammy Watkins through the draft. While I agree that they need to draft a receiver, I would argue that either Holmes or Brown will be a fine #3. I don't think drafting two receivers (especially when they have only six picks) is wise. His opinion on Hughes also leaves out the fact -- as others have mentioned -- that the Bills DO have interior pass rushers on the d-line as well as Shaq Lawson at DE, who was a first round pick just last year and had quite the career at Clemson. All that being said: Do NOT be surprised (especially if the Bills trade down) if a pass rusher is selected on day one or two of this draft. It's a hidden need that a lot of Bills fans aren't thinking about but which McDermott needs to make his defense thrive.

I'm firmly on the "draft a QB if there's one you like" train. EVERY SINGLE YEAR your team is going to have positional draft needs. You can fill them all and have a great all around roster, but if you don't have a QB, it won't mean squat. Case in point: the Bills have had NUMEROUS rosters in the past 17 years that -- with a good QB at the helm -- were playoff caliber. Because they have had such AWFUL offenses for so many years, though, said rosters were wasted. How many quality players do we need to see come and go before we realize that it's a QB driven league and, without one, the Bills will always be spinning their wheels? If there's not a QB they like, then fine, draft positional players and look for a QB next year. If there IS one they like, though, I hope they draft him REGARDLESS of positional needs.

I disagree. As I stated in my post, I think it's the other way around. I think if it was Belichick getting a 5th round pick in exchange for a backup running back (that he had signed off the scrap heap for vet minimum to begin with), everyone on here would be calling him a genius. Flipping a running back who's about to turn 28 for a 5th round pick and 1million+ in cap space just doesn't seem like bad business to me. Even if the Bills simply turn around and spend the pick they acquired on a running back, said player will be 6 years younger and a good deal cheaper. I liked Gillislee a lot, but I think people are somewhat underrating the value of a 5th round pick in a deep draft and somewhat overrating the importance of a backup running back.

Wow. 69 pages. I think this is allllll about the fact that it's the Patriots, and that it shook out in terms of an RFA being signed to an offer sheet. If someone had asked me before the Pats made their offer: "Would you trade Mike Gillislee for a 5th round pick and $1million+ in cap space, would you do it?", I'd have said "yes, in a heartbeat!". Furthermore, if things were reversed, and it was BELICHICK that signed a scrap heap FA, got two years of good production out of him, then flipped him for a 5th round pick when he was about to turn 28 and likely used the pick to replace him with a younger, much cheaper player, everyone would be gushing about what a genius he is.

All the "who he surrounds himself with" stuff combined with the lingering injury have soured me on Foster. Not to mention the fact that a will LB at 10 does not represent good value.

I am more torn during the lead-up to this draft than I have ever been before. On the one hand, there are some really talented playmakers that would drastically improve the Bills. Hooker, Adams, Foster, Reddick, M Williams, Davis, Howard...Sitting at 10, the Bills will have a shot at quality player, and they have glaring needs at WR, S, LB, RT, and CB. On the other hand, they are perfectly situated to draft a franchise QB if they believe one is available in this draft. They are sitting at #10, have a starter in place to be a "bridge", and have a new head coach in place. The contract re-structuring they did with Tyrod screams "not sold on him" as QB of the future. They are in the PERFECT spot to land a QB this draft. While drafting positional players year after year without having a franchise QB in place has resulted in utter mediocrity and 17 years of no playoffs, the Bills also have lots of needs and only six draft picks with which to attempt to fill them. I'd hate to reach for a QB and strike out while missing out on some elite level positional talent. I'd also hate to draft a bazillionth cornerback and continue to not have a franchise QB. Everyone always gripes that the Bills don't do enough to address the QB position. Well, they're sitting at 10 and with a new head coach in place. What better time? Really, really difficult choice this year. Glad I'm not the one who has to make it.

I do agree that the Bills should avoid drafting players with obvious character red flags in this draft. I ESPECIALLY don't like the things I'm reading about the company Foster keeps. It seems like the quickest thing to bring down the career of a talented player is his surrounding himself with a bunch of idiots. If that is in fact the case with Foster, I'm not so sure I'd have any interest in drafting him at all. Also, the later into the draft it is, the more risk I'm okay with the Bills taking in drafting someone. Karlos Williams in the 5th is a perfect example of the good AND bad side of drafting character risks. His rookie year, he made Whaley look like an absolute genius. Then, in his very first offseason as an NFL player, he wrecked his whole career. Luckily, all that was lost was a 5th round pick. If it's late in the draft, I'm okay with risks and long shots *cough*Chad Kelly in the 7th*cough*.

I like what you're saying in theory, but it's not always so simple. The greatest quarterback in Bills history was Jim Kelly. At the time he was drafted, he was an arrogant prick who thought he was too good for Buffalo. Conversely, EJ Manuel was said to have all the off-field things you could want in a quarterback. Great leader, great studier, hard worker, "presence", commands a room, etc, etc..He led the Bills to exactly zero playoff appearances. Setting aside the Bills, you have cases like Brett Favre (addicted to painkillers, partier, didn't take game seriously) or Chris Carter (drug addiction, bad attitude, self destructive behavior) who went on to be Hall of Famers and guys who were totally clean off the field (Christian Ponder, Aaron Maybin) who wound up being total busts. Character is important. So is talent. So are measurables. It's not so simple.

Today is the first time I've heard this, but: Apparently, multiple scouts are worried about the people with whom Foster is surrounding himself. That off-the-field tomfoolery, together with his "leaving the combine because doctors made him angry" incident may cause him to drop.

Should probably wait until he actually LEAVES to make this assessment. Because if he DOESN'T leave, then it means Whaley played this exactly correctly. Just like he did with Groy.

Are you speaking from a position of expertise in NFL contract negotiations?

Was just wondering if you had found your way over to this forum. Glad to see that you have.

The only thing about assigning proper draft value to players is that teams often seem to do so incorrectly. Case in point: The Bills are said to have had a 4th round grade on Russell Wilson. They stood pat and what happened? Seattle placed a higher value on him and took him before the Bills could. Likewise, how are all 32 teams' valuing of Dak Prescott as a 4th rounder looking right about now? To be clear, I'm not saying you should overdraft a guy or place a 1st round grade on a guy that you think doesn't deserve it. What I AM saying, though, is that the whole IDEA of deciding "what round player X 'should' be drafted in" is an objective and imperfect exercise. I am also saying that with the quarterback position, if you have a strong conviction that a guy can be a Franchise Quarterback and can lead you to a championship, how early is too early? If the goal is "let's just take a QB in the middle rounds and see how he turns out in a couple years", then fine. That's what you're doing. But if the goal is "let's identify and draft a guy that we think can lead us to a Super Bowl victory", then how early is "too early"? People often talk about draft value as if it's an absolute. In reality, draft value -- as determined by the 32 teams in the NFL -- is proven to be incorrect CONSTANTLY. Late round guys wind up being "first round caliber", and guys taken in the first round wind up busting. You still do your best to assign value, of course, but when it comes to the QB position in particular, I'm okay with "overdrafting" a guy if you think he can make you a perennial contender...bearing in mind that draft valuation is an objective and flawed process anyway.

Just remember that new head coaches often want to hand pick their own quarterback. You could say "well, he picked Tyrod!", except that the contract restructuring and "out" after 2 years suggest that he isn't committing to Tyrod long term. McDermott also specifically said they want to address the QB position "both for the short term AND the long term", which was a pretty conspicuous use of language, especially when combined with the aforementioned contract restructuring. And like I said above, I bet McDermott figures he won't be drafting top 10 very often, and that's where you need to be picking to have a shot at a franchise QB. Let's face it: MOST rookie QBs are "projects". Yes, some are good right away, but not most. And of those that are, they are usually drafted in the top 5. If I was to guess, I'd say the Bills have deemed that they are currently in perfect position to draft a QB early. It's the first year of a new head coach's tenure, they have a decent stopgap QB in place on a team friendly two year deal, and they're drafting top 10. They're not likely to be this well positioned again in the near future, unless they regress significantly and have an even higher pick next year, which I don't see happening. If they think one of these guys is the real deal, they should draft him. If he has to sit for a year or two, so what...Tyrod can hold down the fort until he's ready. One more thing: Whaley wants out of the "QB purgatory" he's mentioned. Again, when better to take a swing at that?

Firstly: I would really love to know how everyone has reached the consensus that the Bills were "set to take Dak in the 4th round" last year. Yes, they visited with him and were reported to like him. Whaley is historically a height/weight/speed guy, though, and I get the feeing that the Bills were gonna select Cardale Jones regardless of whether Prescott was there or not. Can anyone point out to me what gives them the belief that Dak would have been the guy over Jones in round 4? Is there ANY objective truth to this, or is it just a case of wishful thinking that has somehow become Bills fan fact? Secondly: This is too much due diligence to be just a smokescreen. When your coach, GM, and especially your OWNER are looking at every top quarterback available in a coming draft -- in a year in which the only legitimate QB on your roster is on a cheap two year deal and the coach has stated he wants to address the QB position "for the short term AND the long term" -- you'd better believe that QB at 10 is an option. If they think one of these guys is a franchise quarterback, they likely won't risk trading down and missing out on him, ESPECIALLY with Cleveland sitting there at 12. Personally, I've come around on the idea of a QB in round one. The Bills can draft all the cornerbacks, receivers, and linebackers they want, but until they have a franchise quarterback, they'll never go further than the Wild Card round...and even THAT hasn't been achievable in the past 17 seasons! There will be plenty of good defensive players and even receivers in rounds 2-7. If they think one of these QBs is the real deal, they ought to pull the trigger THIS season. Forget perpetually saying "NEXT year is the year for good QBs!". It's nonsense. And never forget that new coaches often want to pick their OWN quarterbacks. In McDermott's mind, he likely doesn't envision picking top 10 too often. This is as good an opportunity as the Bills are likely to get to draft a top signal caller.