Logic

It's so interesting how the first few games of a rookie QB's career shape the narrative of how his first year went and what his prospects for success are. Case in point: Last year Sam Darnold came out swinging in his debut primetime game and threw (4?) TDs. He was darn good in his first few games, leading many to talk about how sensational he was. Just like with Wentz, Darnold proceeded to have a bunch of TERRIBLE games in a row. His turnovers far outweighed his TDs. It was clear as day that he was struggling mightily. Like Allen, Darnold came back from injury looking much improved, but it's weird that the public narrative sort of conveniently edited out that huge portion in the middle where he struggled. The opposite thing happened with Allen: He looked pretty bad to the outside observer over the course of his first few games. That was enough to cause most casual fans and most ESPN analyst types to say "he is who we thought he was", "he stinks", "he's a bust", etc...Then he came back from injury and pretty much improved game after game through the end of the season, culminating in a game where he produced 5 TDs. Still, it wasn't enough. The narrative remained that he had a bad rookie season. Narrative, narrative, narrative. Of course, coming out gangbusters and becoming an elite player will shut all of that up, but it IS interesting to note how perception forms and sticks pretty early on.

I've thought about this quite a lot. More than is probably healthy for a person not employed by a football team. Here's what I've decided: The Bills are early enough in their rebuild and lack enough talent at enough different positions across their roster that their main objective in this draft should be to get as many high quality players as possible. Hockenson, to me, is of the absolute highest caliber. He is the only guy still likely to be on the board at 9 that I look at and say "There's a 10 year All-Pro". His talent seems so transcendent to me, and he seems like such a good fit on this team both from a personality standpoint as well as his play on the field and its impact on our young QB, that I'd be happy to draft him at 9 EVEN THOUGH the recent history of first round tight ends is not pretty. Guys like Travic Kelce and Zach Ertz and (formerly) Rob Gronkowski make SUCH HUGE DIFFERENCES for their teams. I view Hockenson as that level of talent. So "'positional value" be damned, I'm all for drafting Hockenson at 9. The NUMBER ONE JOB of this front office right now is to ensure that Josh Allen has every tool he needs to succeed. From both a pass catching and blocking standpoint and bearing in mind the apparently extremely high talent level of the prospect in question, Hockenson seems like he would be a tremendous help to this offense and to Allen. Say yes to Hockenson at 9.

Fine with it. Bills will be drafting a young running back to learn behind McCoy and Gore. Couldn't pick a better duo to have a youngster shadow for a season.

Gee, I guess you're right. I'm SURE you know more about how the defense works and who plays well in it than NFL player Lorenzo Alexander or NFL head coach Sean McDermott. "They've done nothing to take note of"? Again, I guess McDermott making the playoffs in his FIRST season when no previous Bills coach in 18 years could get it done doesn't mean anything to you. That's fine. You're a tough critic. There's one thing that I hope you understand: Your subjective opinion does not represent objective reality. Just because YOU think a certain thing doesn't make it objectively true.

Because of two things he said. First, he had the comment about "if there is truly depth at any position -- let's say defensive line -- then that allows you to push that need down the draft." This is INDEED a deep draft at defensive line, and the Bills have been meeting with more projected mid-round linemen and edge rushers than I thought they would. Second, Beane mentioned that if you consider a position weak in the draft, it'll probably cause you to make sure you sign someone at that position in free agency, so that if you miss out on the top few guys, you're not in a bad position. Here, to me, it seemed like he was talking about offensive linemen and wide receivers. Putting the two things together: if defensive line (and, for that matter, tight end) are both deep positions in this draft, but Beane feels that offensive line and wide receiver are NOT particularly deep (and his signing 5 O-linemen and 3 WRs in FA support this notion), then I can't help but wonder if the plan is to try to grab the best player available at one of those shallow positions (OL or WR) early, knowing that you can still get good DL and TEs later into the draft. It is all completely guess work and inference on my part. I mostly believe them this year when they say they'll take BPA. And I'd even say I still view d-line as the LIKELY first round pick. But today's comments by Beane, for the reasons I mentioned, represented the first time that I seriously considered that they might take a different position instead and wait to get some d-linemen later in the draft, given its depth at those positions.

Hearing Beane talk today at owner's meetings has me thinking for the 1st time that they may NOT pick a defensive lineman in the first round.

If "they" is Beane and McDermott, they have NOT had 20 years. They've had two. Year one, they were in the playoffs ("they backdoor'd their way in, blah blah blah"). How many other Bills coaches made the playoffs in the last 17 years? How many other Bills coaches made the playoffs in their first season? Year two, they fell short of the playoffs, but had the #2 defense in the league and identified a franchise QB. Talk all you want about how bad you think Star was, but teams with as big a liability as you're describing Star to be along the defensive line typically don't perform as well as the Bills defense did. Oh, and about Star's performance last year? Let's hear from tenured NFL veteran and Pro Bowler Lorenzo Alexander on the issue: “Obviously he (doesn’t play) a sexy position, but he allows other people around him to make plays,” Alexander said. “I’ve definitely been able to have a pretty good year this year. A lot of it is contributed to what he’s been able to do as far as keeping guys off me, allowing me to run free. “In the pass rush, people can’t step up. On first or second down I know a couple of guys that have gotten sacks throughout the year just because Star has gotten that great push. He’s earned every bit of what he’s got with that five-year deal.” Beane and McDermott are not batting 1.00. No one is. But in my opinion, they're doing a hell of a job.

Speaking of "hyperbolic nonsense", how about claiming "0-9" when Star Lotulelei was a key contributor to the Bills' number 2 defense, earning the praise of his coaches and teammates, and Trent Murphy earned a starting role and his only downfall was a struggle to stay healthy, and Chris Ivory was a key backup that contributed mightily to two Bills wins? We see what we want to see, BADOL.

Ultimately, I've concluded that there is NO Bills free agency approach that will please some Bills fans. They didn't spend at all? "They're asleep at the wheel! Fire Beane!" They spent big on premium players? "They're overpaying! You win through the draft! Fire Beane!" They handed out short, modest contracts to role players and bargain free agents? "They're shopping in the bargain aisle! They have no eye for talent! Fire Beane!" You're damned if you do, damned if you don't. For what it's worth, even though no one asked me, I think the approach this front office takes to free agency is perfect. Identify 1-2 premium players each year and hand out big contracts to just those players. The rest of the way, fill holes with short term, low risk bargain or market level deals. Continue to build through the draft. Stockpile the majority of your cap allotment to re-sign your OWN draftees. Perfect.

I retweeted this to Sal, Buscaglia, Chris Brown, and the official Bills Twitter account. Hopefully ONE of them retweets it themselves, so that it gets better publicity. Also: Haha Flutie, you have Twitter now!

This signing makes all sorts of sense. Already know he fits in with the locker room culture. Already know he can be highly productive in this scheme, even to the level of being a quality starter at CB2. Creates strong competition for CB2 role between Wallace, Johnson, and Gaines. Wallace will have to EARN his starting spot. Assuming White, Wallace, Taron Johnson are starting trio, this move (along with the Kevin Johnson signing) creates EXCELLENT depth in the secondary. Both Johnson and Gaines have been high level starters in this league, they just struggle to stay healthy. The ONLY negative I can think of with this signing and the Kevin Johnson signing is that both guys have struggled to stay healthy. Both deals, though, are only for one year and are cheap, and thus come with little risk whatsoever. Love, love, love it.

I certainly understand (but do not entirely share) your viewpoint. Jerry was DEFINITELY the majority of what was interesting/excellent about the Grateful Dead. I still enjoy gathering with the tribe and getting my boogie on, and I love me some Bobby Weir.

Copy that. Obviously not good enough yet, but it does represent an improvement over the 10 points per game that they were scoring prior to Allen's return from injury.

I tend to agree. If I'm not mistaken, the Bills were averaging 24 points a game once Josh came back from injury. And that was with a bad o-line and a WR corps lacking in talent. Just with the additions we've already made in free agency (not even factoring in what gets added via the draft), and with Allen about to get a full offseason and training camp of starter reps, I expect a much improved offense in 2019. My entire adult life as a Bills fan has been spent without a franchise QB. I was too young to really remember watching Jim Kelly. As such, I literally don't know what it feels like to know that my team has a franchise QB. If Allen lights it up in 2019 and proves that he's "the guy", well....I just won't even know how to feel. What is it even like being a fan of a team with a franchise QB? Uncharted territory for me.

All we have to go on is the national analyst (I can't remember who...Daniel Jeremiah, maybe?) who said he had Murray with the same grade that he gave Josh Allen last year. I think the order of QBs drafted this year would be Murray, then Allen, then Haskins, then Locke. Just a total guess.

Of all the bands I can think of, the Grateful Dead have handled this the best. Once Jerry Garcia died, they went as The Other Ones. Eventually, they brought "The Dead" out of mothballs, but without the "Grateful". Later iterations that play Dead music have included Ratdog, Phil and Friends, Further, and now Dead and Company. But to their credit, they have never attempted to go out as The Grateful Dead. Even their much celebrated 50th anniversary farewell shows at Solider Field in 2015 were only billed as "Celebrating the music of the Grateful Dead". They've let the name stay...well, um....dead...since Jerry died. Kudos for that.

The only thing I'll say with respect to the comments about Culley and the lack of foundation around Allen: It's important to remember the restrictions under which the team was operating due to cap constraints. I recall Beane mentioning that the Bills were in on both Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, but couldn't offer them as much money or clear opportunity for success as the Bears. I also remember the Bills being in on RT Ricky Wagner the year before, but again, couldn't afford what he ultimately wound up receiving. It's only fair to at least keep their salary cap imposed limitations in mind when mentioning the lack of foundation around Allen. Furthermore, the Bills are not the first to use the "fix defense in year 1, get QB in year 2, build around QB in year 3" model. All that being said, I have no explanation or excuse for Culley being the QB coach. That made no sense to me then and still doesn't make sense to me now. Perhaps he'd have been a fine hire if the Bills had a 10 year vet at QB. But for him to be the primary tutor of a ROOKIE?! No bueno. Glad they did the right thing and axed him.

I mean...how good of a backup center do you think MOST teams have? As it is, the Bills' current backup centers are Russell Bodine and Spencer Long. Both are guys that have started a lot of games in this league. If you look around the NFL, you're not going to find a lot of teams with really high quality backup centers. I think Bodine/Long is as strong of a backup center situation as you're likely to find anywhere in the league. As for Morse, he seems to be a consensus top 10 center in the NFL. Furthermore, I expect Long to compete to start at GUARD, a position at which he performed well when he was a Redskin. No one expects him to be a candidate for starting center, so I'm not sure why that's even a discussion.

I agree. Except I think the bolded leads to some people going overboard on the pessimistic outlooks. Why wouldn't they? The Bills have been so bad for so long that many Bills fans are conditioned to expect the worse, even when there are signs that optimism may be warranted. I believe that what we're looking at now is the beginning of the 3rd year of a complete teardown and rebuild. Year 1 they jettisoned bad contracts and players and began to build a defense. Year 2 they identified and selected a quarterback and continued to bolster the defense (it finished 2nd in the league). Year 3 is all about building around Allen and making sure he's the franchise QB they think he is. In years 4 and 5, we'll start to see contract extensions for homegrown stars. I also think we'll start to see bigger free agent contracts handed out, being that they are projected to be in the top 5 in cap space again NEXT offseason. So yeah, we're still toward the beginning end of a complete rebuild. As such, big dollars have yet to really be committed across the roster. Right now, the team hasn't proven anything and has to be considered below average at worst, average at best. Anything above that, they must prove on the field. But as for the cap dollars the Bills are spending? They look exactly like they SHOULD look for a team in this stage of a rebuild. As always, I am cautiously optimistic. I understand why some choose pessimism, though, whether consciously or subconsciously.

9. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Ed Oliver IDL, Houston 40. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Kelvin Harmon WR, NC State 74. Buffalo Bills USER PICK JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR, Stanford 112. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Tytus Howard OT, Alabama State 131. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Alize Mack TE, Notre Dame 147. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Devin Singletary RB, FAU 158. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Beau Benzschawel IOL, Wisconsin 181. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Demarcus Christmas IDL, Florida State 225. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Bryce Love RB, Stanford 228. Buffalo Bills USER PICK Ryan Finley QB, NC State

The below chart makes very clear what the Bills are doing. They have less money committed on big contracts than any team in the league. Why is this? I would postulate it ties into why they have only been signing average to slightly above average players to no more than modest contracts: They are planning to do the majority of their spending on the retention of their own young core in the coming years: Milano, Edmunds, White, Allen, Dawkins, [Edge draftee], etc, etc. Rather than spending big chunks of their cap on overpaid free agents, they are meticulously and intelligently allocating their money in a way that will allow them to retain all of their own home grown talent, rather than be forced to watch anyone walk away because the Bills can't afford their contract demands. It's a breath of fresh air and a massive change from the way things were done under Whaley.

I'd rather see them add 5 high quality players that they really like, even if it means using their extra 4th and 5th rounders to move up a few times. I don't need to see 10 players added. They won't be able to find roster spots for 10 players. I don't expect them to draft more than 7 players at most. Beane and McDermott's recent draft history also shows that they like moving up in the early rounds if the price is right (Dawkins, Zay, Allen, and Edmunds were all selected after trade-ups).

With the caveat that this will be a complete guess, based on looking at Spencer Long and Roger Saffold and Kalechi Osemele's contracts to form a base line range... I believe Spain wants a lucrative contract and teams aren't biting due to his 2018 and 2017 seasons not being up to the caliber of pay that he likely wants. As such, a 1-year prove it deal is probably the most likely outcome. Based on his age, recent production, and the contracts of the players mentioned above, I'd guess that a one year, $4-5Million deal could get it done. I could be way off, but that's my line of thinking. *Edit: I should have said that's what I think his true VALUE is. Will he settle for that amount? Who knows. He may think he's more in the $8-10M range, and that's why no one has signed him yet.

It's always been weird to me that teams without an established franchise QB don't draft MULTIPLE QBs high and have legit competitions for the starting job. If it's the most important position in sports, and you don't have a good one, why wouldn't you take as many high swings as possible until you do? Cards should keep Rosen, draft Murray at 1, let them compete for the starting job, and let whoever loses either be a backup on a cheap deal, or trade away said player AFTER you're already pretty sure the other guy is the franchise.

1.) They extended an offer, but Beasley felt (correctly, apparently) that he was worth more 2.) Beasley wanted out of that offense and wanted an opportunity to catch more balls elsewhere