Logic

He was PFF's 8th ranked prospect. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-board-big-board He was Scouts Inc's 19th ranked prospect. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39854410/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-top-prospects-scouts-inc He was Joel Klatt's (of Fox Sports) 24th ranked prospect. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39854410/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-top-prospects-scouts-inc He was Daniel Jeremiah's 25th ranked prospect. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39854410/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-top-prospects-scouts-inc It's not a "hindsight 20/20" situation. DeJean was touted by nearly everyone of consequence as solidly a mid to late 1st round pick. Furthermore, as I pointed out in my thread, the fact that DeJean WASN'T considered a realistic draft candidate for Buffalo because they were "set at cornerback" is EXACTLY the problem. Drafting BPA over need would dictate that DeJean WOULD have been a viable candidate there. You draft good players over "need" players, and before long, you look pretty smart. Case in point: Benford got hurt and Kaiir Elam flopped and floundered in the biggest game of the year, repeatedly being picked on by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. If only the Bills had had a more talented corner waiting in the wings! And wouldn't you know it? Fast forward to this year, and the Bills are likely going to be in the market for a viable starting corner. But instead of having one waiting in the wings, they'll have corner among their obvious NEED positions, and may end up having to draft one when he isn't the BPA solely because the need is so crying. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Rather than re-litigate the "Coleman over Worthy" thing, which has been discussed to death... I will instead point out that for all of Beane's talk about drafting BPA and not being a prisoner to need, his track record shows that he ABSOLUTELY drafts for need in the first and second round most years, and 2024 was no exception. I think every draftnik and their brother had Cooper DeJean rated ahead of Keon Coleman, but WR was the bigger need, so Coleman was the pick. In retrospect, Cooper DeJean and Xavier Worthy likely would both have been superior picks. Each of them scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl for their team as rookies, while Keon Coleman (who, yes, may still wind up being a productive role player or even a WR2/3) was near the bottom of the league in separation created. The book on this draft won't be written for a couple more years, but early returns are not promising. Brandon Beane needs to put his money where his mouth is and stop drafting for need, because he has left some great talent on the table by not truly drafting BPA. While I agree that it's too soon to tell, it's tough to hear and agree with "it's harder to make an instant impact on a good team" when Cooper DeJean and Xavier Worthy scored three touchdowns between them in the Super Bowl a couple Sundays ago.

Thanks for the link and for your summary. I guess what's frustrating to me, based on what you're saying, is that an Eagles team that plays the Chiefs far less often than we do was able to figure out the strategy you outlined: don't let the receivers win early, contain rush Mahomes all day, don't let him out of the pocket, force the receivers -- if they're going to win at all -- to win later in the route. The thing is, many sharp fans could've told you this is the plan to beat the Chiefs as currently constructed. So why did it seem like this was NOT the plan the Bills employed this year? I don't buy lack of adequate personnel as an excuse. Sure, the Eagles' defensive personnel may be superior, but it's not SO vastly superior that the Bills couldn't try to replicate that Eagles' gameplan. So why didn't they? The coverage was generally soft. Sure, we lacked Benford for much of the game, and sure, maybe we feared that our safeties would get beat deep. Nevertheless, it didn't seem like the Bills were trying to limit and bother the Chiefs receivers early in their routes. More egregiously, the Bills definitely did NOT prioritize contain rushing Mahomes. Rousseau broke contain MULTIPLE times in the AFCCG. It stood out on screen it was so bad. So that's what puzzles me. How is it that Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich -- neither one a fool or a slouch -- couldn't seem to figure out that Eagles defensive gameplan and employ it, considering they face the Chiefs every single season, sometimes twice a year? It's maddening.

How about teams with very good to elite QB play who don't even MAKE the playoffs? Herbert's Chargers have been subpar until this season and have missed the playoffs several times. Burrow's Bengals missed the playoffs entirely this year. Do we get to count those?

Great post. Thanks. People tend to think that whatever replacement we get would definitely be an upgrade. And while of course it's possible they would be, it's also very possible they would be a DOWNgrade. After all, winning one's division five years in a row is quite an accomplishment (first time it's happened in Bills history), as is making it to the conference championship game. People are quick to say "well, McDermott has Josh Allen, so of COURSE he's successful", but that simply ignores and minimizes the tons of head coaches who have very good QBs and still don't routinely post double digit wins and claim division crowns. If these things are so automatic just by virtue of having quality QB play, why haven't the Chargers been very good under Justin Herbert? Why don't the Bengals consistently post double digit wins and win division titles like we do? I believe that winning consistently and making the playoffs year after year is harder than people think. And I believe that it's nowhere NEAR the foregone conclusion some seem to think it is that anyone replacing McDermott would constitute an improvement. The Bills, while undergoing significant roster turnover, breaking in two new coordinators, and posting a TON of a dead cap, improved from last year and made the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2020. I'm not sure what it is about that year-to-year improvement and being an eyelash away from a Super Bowl -- WHILE getting younger and shedding veterans and eating a bunch of dead cap, no less -- that makes people so eager to move on from the head coach and so sure that anyone that replaces him will be an improvement.

Meanwhile, multiple other teams around the league have ALSO changed coordinators, players, head coaches, and GMs, and they're all MORE than a touchdown away.

I don't necessarily disagree with some of what you say here. On the other hand, your post should have the following asterisks, IMO: *The Bills have the most wins in the NFL since 2020 *The Bills have the best point differential in the NFL since 2020 *The Bills have won the AFC East a franchise record five times in a row *If not for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, there's a very good chance the Bills would have appeared in at least one Super Bowl *The Bills were a touchdown away from being in the Super Bowl THIS year At the end of the day, none of what I just listed resulted in the Bills hoisting a Lombardi, and that's obviously the ultimate goal. But if you're going to make the points you just made about "staleness" and "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic", it seems only fair to mention that the Bills have been one of the most consistently excellent franchises in the NFL the past five years. They consistently win their division, consistently rank at the top of point differential and wins league wide, and consistently make the playoffs. A Super Bowl win is the ONLY thing they haven't done yet. Seems like quite an accomplished and successful franchise to be likening to the Titanic.

To be honest, I'd love for the Bills to stop cycling through veterans and draft a young, explosive guy of their own. Unfortunately, with the needs at DL, safety, and CB, I doubt they're planning to invest a high pick in a WR this offseason. Still, of the veteran receiving options, I'd rather re-sign (a hopefully healed up) Amari Cooper -- who we already know is a locker room fit -- than Deebo.

The Bills need an explosive outside receiver that can beat man coverage, win deep, and open things up for the middle-of-the-field guys. Deebo is not that guy. At this point in his career, he's more of a gimmick player than a complete WR1. He's Curtis Samuel with better blocking and strength. 2021 was awesome! But since then? Woof. It's a no for me, dawg.

I agree. Beane has been good at hitting singles and doubles and even the occasional triple his whole GM career, but he too rarely hits homeruns. The Bills don't have enough difference makers. Don't have enough "very good to elite" players. Sure, he drafts guys that stick around the league and are in the "pretty good to good" category. But he doesn't draft enough KILLERS. And no, the "we pick too late in every draft" thing is not an excuse, and I hate when Beane says any version of it. I like Brandon Beane overall as a GM, but I agree: When it comes to evaluating college talent and drafting, Brandon Beane needs to step it up, ESPECIALLY in rounds 1 and 2.

Watching the game last night made one thing abundantly clear: the Bills' defensive line has, thus far, been the primary factor preventing them from winning a Lombard in the McDermott/Allen era. It's not just that the Eagles pressured Mahomes on over 50% of his dropbacks and gave him a career high in sacks. It's the WAY they did it. Straight four man rush with zone coverage behind it. Not a SINGLE blitz all game long. Of course, there's a little more to it than that. Vic Fangio is an elite defensive mind. But the principles were simple: Play disciplined zone coverage in the back seven, cause havoc with your front four. Don't blitz. It should also be a FAMILIAR strategy. If Sean McDermott had his way, it's how the Bills defense would play every single game. It's the exact strategy that, in an ideal world, he would employ full time. The only problem is that the Bills don't have the defensive line that the Eagles have, so employing this strategy does not typically lead to the same results. Yes, the Chiefs o-line was injured and bad this year. Nevertheless, in BOTH Mahomes-led Chiefs Super Bowl losses, the primary reason for their defeat was an ass kicking DL across from them, kicking their butts, down after down. We know the Bills have been sinking resources into the DL year after year, and without great results to show for it. We must resist falling into the "sunk cost fallacy" and saying "hey, we tried that, it didn't work, can't keep doing it". On the contrary, the Bills MUST keep doing anything and everything to build a great defensive line. The Eagles invested premium draft picks in their DL year after year after year, until it became what it is today. The Bills cannot give up. They need to keep swinging. Going all the way back to the Giants defense beating the unstoppable Patriots in that Super Bowl, to the Bucs beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and now to the Eagles absolutely shellacking them last night. The evidence is clear. You want to beat an elite, all time great QB and offensive mind? Build an ass-kicking defensive line. The Bills need DeWayne Carter and Javon Soloman to hit. They need a fearsome 1T. They need to take a swing on a Garrett or a Crosby or a Sweat. But regardless of HOW they do it, one thing is clear: fixing the defensive line should be the Bills' top priority this offseason.

I know we currently don't have a 3rd round pick due to the Cooper trade, but I was under the impression that if we let Cooper walk that, depending on other factors, it could result in us recouping a 3rd round compensatory pick.

You're right that I don't have any answers, but I have a few opinions. For one thing, I think that both Lamar Jackson's fans and Josh Allen's fans are WILDLY loyal to and defensive of their guy. Both were doubted coming out of college and have been doubted or disrespected (though the comparative extent of this disrespect for each guy is up for debate) ever since. Ironically, Josh and Lamar's fans should probably each root for (or at least have empathy for) the OTHER guy, too, because their cases and stories are way more similar than they are different. So the first opinion I have is that the fierce loyalty and defensiveness that each fan base has on behalf of their favorite QB causes the two fan bases, when they butt up against each other, to get really heated and emotional and intense. Since Josh and Lamar will always be compared as members of the same draft class, and as guys whose paths are likely to cross often in the AFC playoffs, we can expect continued heated debate and vitriol. The second opinion I have relates more to the media talking heads: A lot of people have confirmation bias and take lock regarding Josh Allen. They had strong opinions and/or made strong statements about him coming out of college, and they don't like being shown up or having to admit that they were wrong now. They cling to any piece of evidence that supports their original, outdated analysis, and disregard and belittle any new piece of evidence that proves they were wrong. People HATE being wrong. The third opinion I have, again, relating more to the media talking heads (but also to the fans) is: there are racial components. Some of the stuff Dominique Foxworth and Ryan Clark and others have said have the whiff of a certain bias towards Lamar and against Josh. On the other hand, many Ravens fans claim the same type of bias but in the other direction from guys like Dan Orlovsky and Chris Simms. Ravens fans claim Bills fans are racist for things like the hanging Kermit/Mahomes effigy, Josh's Twitter comments from high school/college, etc. I've seen each fan base claim that the other fan base's QB gets preferential treatment from the media because of race. So even though all of it is pretty silly, it doesn't change the fact that it enters the discussion, and lots of people feel its a factor, and it taints the discussion we sometimes see on television about these guys. I agree that it's an uncommonly heated and vitriolic debate. I think most of the discussion is toxic and immature and silly. Alas, this is the culture in which we live. Social media, 24 hour sports news cycle, clickbait media, etc, etc. It's gross.

Put simply, both guys had great (and legitimate cases), so any reasonable person should be able to say "both guys deserved it. It was a close race. Congrats to whoever wins". You can root for your favorite guy or have a stance on who should win, sure, but being reasonable means recognizing that they BOTH had all-world seasons, and either of them winning would make sense for a variety of reasons. On the other hand, if you are NOT capable of recognizing the greatness (and deservingness) of the other guy, and if the only way you can prop up your preferred candidate is by tearing down the other guy and pretending like he didn't have a good case, then, well...I don't think particularly highly of your maturity level, intellect, or ability to rationally recognize and process nuance. Unfortunately, there seem to be far too few of the former, and far too many of the latter. Or at least, those in the latter camp seem to be much more loudly vocal and forceful in the espousing of their opinion. A real shame.

Unfortunately, SEVERAL AP voters have felt the need to defend/explain their Josh pick since last night, because they're all receiving a bunch of backlash and mockery from everyone from Dominique Foxworth on ESPN's Get Up, to Mike Florio of PFT, and on and on. As far as I can tell, the vast majority of AP voters take their job very seriously, and several of them have mentioned poring over multiple games and All-22 and agonizing over their decisions. Only for people who DON'T do that (like Foxworth and Florio) to act holier than though and cast aspersions on anyone who dared to have a different opinion than them. The discourse throughout this MVP race was highly toxic, and it continues to be so. I'm glad the race is over and Josh won, but that doesn't mean the chuckleheads are gonna back off their ill-informed stances or sophomoric insults.

AP voter Lindsay Jones explains her reasoning for voting for Josh Allen for MVP: https://www.theringer.com/2025/02/07/nfl/josh-allen-nfl-mvp-lamar-jackson-vote-splitting Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen was a true MVP debate for the ages—the type the NFL hasn’t seen since Steve McNair and Peyton Manning split the award for the 2003 season. When Jackson was overwhelmingly voted the first-team quarterback on the Associated Press All-Pro team last month, it seemed like a pretty clear indication of how the greatest debate of the season would end. But in the most stunning MVP result in years, it was Allen, not Jackson, who took the MVP trophy home on Thursday night at the NFL Honors ceremony in New Orleans. It is Allen’s first MVP award. Jackson has previously won it twice, for the 2019 and 2023 seasons. It was the first time since 1987 that QBs split the MVP and All-Pro honors outright (that year, John Elway won MVP while Joe Montana was the All-Pro). Allen received 27 first-place votes, 22 second-place votes, and one third-place vote, for a total of 383 points in the AP’s ranked-choice voting system. Jackson received 23 first-place votes, 26 second-place votes, and one fourth-place vote, for 362 total points. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley finished third, with 120 points. (No voters picked Barkley as their MVP, but he had one second-place vote and 25 for third place.) For comparison, Jackson received 30 first-team All-Pro votes, to 18 for Allen. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow also received two first-team All-Pro votes. The AP’s Rob Maaddi, who oversees the voting process, told me that both of the Burrow All-Pro voters picked Jackson for MVP. “I was pretty surprised, yeah,” Allen said at his news conference Thursday night. “Given what we know about how typically voting goes. Lamar was very deserving of this award as well. I’ve got nothing but love and respect for his game. He’s a great steward of the game, and every time we share a field, I’m very fortunate to be mentioned in the same breath as him.” That means nine voters split their votes—picking Jackson for All-Pro, and Allen for MVP. One of those voters was me. I’ve been on the AP’s voting panel for NFL awards for at least 10 years, and never have I agonized over my MVP ballot more than I did this season. I spent hours rewatching games and the All 22, pouring over advanced metrics and talking to people I trust on football matters. My poor, patient husband listened to me talk myself in circles as I paced around the house, working my way through my decision during that first week of January. My stomach was in knots as I filled out my award ballot, and I remember exhaling when I hit send. Voting for these NFL awards and the Pro Football Hall of Fame is an honor I take extremely seriously. All I ever want is to have done my homework so I can feel confident in my vote, be transparent about my process, and be able to defend it. One of the biggest gripes about the MVP award in the past decade is that it’s essentially become the Best Quarterback award. We can try to make a case that a skill position player has a season special enough to enter the conversation, like Barkley did this season, but we all know it’ll take something truly historic (and an exceptionally down year for quarterback play) for a non-QB to ever win this award again. (For the record, I had Barkley third on my ballot, behind Allen and Jackson.) Ultimately, this year it came down to the two quarterbacks, and it felt impossible to choose. I am confident that (a) both Jackson and Allen were deserving of the league’s highest individual honor, and (b) MVP is not strictly an award for the best quarterback, so voting one of them for All-Pro didn’t mean he automatically had to be my MVP. The phrasing of “Most Valuable” is extremely vague, and open to plenty of interpretation of what it actually means. To me, the MVP award is open to narrative considerations, a player’s career arc, the roster decisions made around him, and expectations for any particular season, in a way that—again, to me—All-Pro voting is not. In considering (and considering and considering) Jackson vs. Allen, I opened myself up to the possibility that some great quarterback plays and moments carried more weight than others this season. Allen finished the season with 3,731 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, along with 513 rushing yards and 12 scores on the ground. Jackson’s numbers were eye-popping: 4,172 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, and 915 rushing yards and four TDs on the ground. So splitting my ballot was my way of acknowledging that Jackson played quarterback better than anyone this season, while Allen was the defining, and yes, most valuable, football character of the regular season. When I think back on the 2024 regular season, it was Allen whose best plays lead the highlight reel—his passing-turned-receiving touchdown against San Francisco in the snow, his fourth-down touchdown run against Kansas City that helped Buffalo hand the Chiefs their only meaningful loss of the season, and his roll-out deep dart to Keon Coleman in a December shootout against Detroit. This wasn’t Allen’s best statistical season in many areas—his total yardage, passing touchdowns, and passer rating were all down from a peak in 2020, and that was certainly a valid argument against him, especially since Jackson outperformed his two previous MVP seasons. But I don’t think it’s hard to make the case that this was Allen’s most impactful season as the Bills’ quarterback. His counting stats were down in large part because of a philosophical shift in the Buffalo offense, not because he suddenly got worse at passing. Allen was always able to turn on the superhero switch when he wanted to and when the Bills needed a clutch play, but in 2024, the Bills’ first option wasn’t “hey Josh, just go do something.” The result was the most efficient version of Allen we’ve ever seen, with career highs in adjusted net yards per attempt, QBR and expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Allen also had better luck on turnovers this season. He had career lows in interceptions (six) and fumbles (five). He also took a career-low number of sacks. If his perceived recklessness with the football was one thing that had held him back from serious MVP consideration in the past, well, he answered that question this season. And he did it while leading the Bills to the no. 2 seed in the AFC in what most of us thought would be a reset year for Buffalo after the Bills traded away star wide receiver Stefon Diggs and moved on from several prominent defensive players in cost-saving moves. Value is impossible to cleanly define, but Allen earned this award. It felt impossible to choose, and nearly as hard to justify, but I stand by it. There was no voter fatigue for me, no boredom in a repeat winner, or hesitancy to pick Jackson for a third time. I understand that plenty of people will not agree with this decision-making process, including many of my peers and fellow voters. Maybe some of them felt voting for Jackson was an easy call, and I get it: He was electrifying, and took his already incredible game to a new level. His stats are undeniable. I’m not sure there would have been an entirely satisfying outcome, though I suppose it feels fitting that an MVP race that felt so tight during the season remained so until the very (surprising) end. End of article

I like Crosby. I would be happy to acquire him. The question posited was "what puts Buffalo over the top", and to me, Garrett is the only answer. Crosby would be a nice addition. As would DJ Reed. As would Tee Higgins or (insert free agent you like here). But putting them OVER THE TOP? To me, that's a game wrecker. And the only game wrecker I see realistically available (albeit via trade rather than free agency) is Myles Garrett. He is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and is smack dab in the middle of his prime (unlike the last pass rusher we paid a premium price to add to the roster). While other additions would improve this roster, Garrett would TRANSFORM it.

There's one answer: Myles Garrett. /Thread.

Voters got it right. Josh as MVP and Lamar as 1st team All Pro is exactly what it should've been.

HELL YES!!! From "most overrated" to League MVP! You love to see it! Absolutely huge for Josh. Things like this matter for legacies and HOF resumes. Congratulations, Josh Allen! WELL DESERVED!!!

I like that the Bills have hired a new assistant DL coach and senior defensive assistant. To me, it shows that they know there's room for improvement and that they are not just being complacent, going into next season with no changes to the defensive staff (or, potentially, scheme). If you're a "status quo isn't working" guy, then this hire (and the assistant DL coach hire) constitute good news.

They get Andy Reid We get Sean McDermott They get Steve Spagnuolo We get guys named Leslie and Bobby They get Patrick Mahomes We get Country Patrick Mahomes with occasional 1st and 4th quarter sugar insanity They get the biggest pop star in the world, Taylor Swift We get the voice of Spiderman's girlfriend in a cartoon, Hailee Steinfeld They get to bang a big, cool drum and do Native war chants We get a wailing train whistle that made my Pappy go deaf in one ear the time we sat in the 300s I tell ya, life ain't fair.

I was planning to make this exact post at some point this offseason. We all know Joe Brady can coordinate a successful egalitarian offense. One where "everybody eats" and the ball is spread around and different players are featured each week. But can he, if necessary, feature a WR1 and maximize the talents and production of that player? When the Bills hit a week where "everybody eats" isn't working, or where the optimal strategy would be to exploit a certain advantageous WR vs CB matchup over and over again, does Brady have the goods? When the offense hits a lull or Josh Allen is in a "gotta have it" 3rd and long, does Brady's playbook feature a page that says "WR1's best plays"? I've heard it said again and again that in crunch time, in the big moments, playcallers should think players, not plays. They should have the ability to say "this is an Amari Cooper down", for instance, and then have a handful of plays they know that player excels on. People can question Diggs' ability and effort level in his last year here. People can wonder if Amari Cooper's wrist hurt him more than he let on or if he's lost a step. But me? I think the notion that Brady may not be able to effectively feature one pass catcher in a purposeful and productive way is a viable notion to ponder. He has not yet shown he is able to do so, and until he does, it's a legitimate question.

Fine with it. Specifically, using 1st and 2nd round pick(s) to acquire marquee players. I (and many others) have been saying for several offseasons now that Josh doesn't have enough difference makers around him. McDermott said as much in his end-of-season presser. Given the Beane's mediocre recent track record with 1st and 2nd round picks anyway, I'm fine with using them to acquire a star veteran (Garrett, Crosby, etc) instead. You can still use your mid and late round picks (which Beane seems better at turning into good players anyway) for depth. Those premium picks, though? If you can turn them into a star player and difference maker, you do it.