Logic

I tend to think character/leadership/intangibles played a part in choosing Ray over Braelon. Davis WAS a very productive college running back though, putting up 1,000 yards with three different teams and posting 7 receiving TDs last season. Crucially: It's simply too early to make any kind of judgement call on this one. I'd at least like to see their entire rookie seasons play out first.

Outstanding stuff. Thanks!

I watched a ton of football yesterday. I watched Red Zone in the early window, Chiefs-Bengals, then Bears-Texans. There's nothing quite like a relaxing Sunday of football when your team has already won and are 2-0. My takeaway from watching so much football was this: The Bills -- and specifically Josh Allen -- are really friggin good. During the drought years, I used to watch other games and think "this looks like a completely different sport than what the Bills play", but the feeling was that those other teams were so much better and more productive and more advanced. We looked like a JV squad comparatively. Now I watch other games around the league and I think "this looks like a completely different sport than what the Bills play", but I mean it in reverse! The BILLS are the ones who look to be playing the sport on another level, and most of the other teams look like JV squads. In particular, it highlights just how amazing OUR quarterback is, and how almost no other quarterbacks (save for Kermit) can hold a candle to him. Watching Josh Allen every week, you grow to expect certain plays to be made -- sacks to be evaded, throws to be made on the run, frozen ropes to be thrown to beat cover 2 zone. And then you watch other QBs and they just...don't make those plays. Allen is one of one. Nothing like watching the rest of the league all day long to remind you how great your quarterback is and how good your team and its coach typically are. GO BILLS!

Josh Allen causes more analysts to throw their hands up, shake their head, or just laugh out loud than any player I can ever remember. Especially guys who have played pro football, and especially former quarterbacks. They know firsthand how insane the plays he makes are, how impossible those plays should be to make, and how ridiculous it is that he makes them. This video also highlighted at least two occasions where arm strength really does matter in the NFL. There's a common misconception that it's about how far you can throw it or how good your deep ball is, when that's not it at all. Arm strength is about fitting it into tight windows, making far hash throws, hitting a receiver in the honey hole between the corner and safety, those types of things. The down-the-middle throw to Shakir in the middle of three defenders and the throw to the far hash hitch to beat the blitz illustrate exactly why arm strength matters. So, incidentally, did Tua's failed throwaway attempt that went for six Bills points. Josh is one of one. Unicorn.

Others have said it already. Both the percentage of 4th downs on which McDermott goes for it, and the frequency with which he goes for it on 4th when he "should" (as shown in the chart above) are high. Consistently top five. So that notion of "this seems out of character for him" is simply wrong. It's not out of character. As for the decision he made against the Dolphins: I like going for it on 4th down early in the game. I believe it sends a message to the players that says "I believe in you, and we're better than these guys". At the point at which coach decided to go for it, Bass had not yet missed a kick on the season, so I don't think lack of faith in the kicker had anything to do with it. I think the analytics said go, coach's gut probably said go, and he believed in his guys. What followed was the perfect play call and great execution. TD Jimbo.

This is what makes fantasy football great. I'll have interest in just about every game on the docket due to fantasy football. Also, aside from that...looks like a good day for the Red Zone channel.

I drafted Jordan Mason (even though I don't have CMC) because CMC had a lingering calf injury and because of all the camp reports of Mason surpassing Mitchell as the locked in RB2. Snagged Mason off waivers in both my dynasty leagues, too. Dude has "league winner" written all over him. As for those that took CMC early and DIDN'T draft his handcuff, well....

I've said it a bunch and I'll keep repeating it: McDaniel is closer to the end of his tenure as head coach than the beginning. He's an excellent play designer but he is NOT a head coach. His schtick is gonna wear thin on players and fans alike. I've also said, and will continue to say, that Tua wilts in big moments, and he's not the guy to lead them to a championship. So long as one or both of those guys are leading the team, I will not fear them.

Literally?

I think you just said it about as well as it can be said. And it sounds just exactly right to me, too. Good stuff. Thanks for that.

Thanks for the great writeup, as always. Three things stood out to me: 1.) Team defense. Yes, there were some great plays by individual players (Oliver, Ingram, I'm looking at you), but by and large, the defense simply looked good AS A UNIT out there. Pre-play checks were made, communication was good, players were passed off when they were supposed to be, defenders rallied to the football once a receiver caught it, gap integrity was mostly kept. It was a "do your job" night on defense, and everyone pretty much did theirs, and the total result was defensive dominance. 2.) Winning both lines of scrimmage. Our offensive line opened up big lanes in the running game and also kept #17 clean all night long. Our defensive line penetrated into the Dolphins' backfield repeatedly, harassed Tua, and generally looked like they were vastly superior to the Dolphins' o-line -- which they were. Winning the lines of scrimmage is, was, and will always be how you win football games, and the Bills did it on both sides last night. 3.) Khalil Shakir is Hines Ward. That's who I see. A thickly built route technician who just knows how to get open and make big catches, and who can also run after the catch, and who is also a tenacious blocker. He will never be the big highlight reel, cover-of-Madden kind of guy (though, to be fair, he's already had a highlight reel play or two this season). But what he WILL be is a dependable option, a chain mover, and a tone setter. And at the end of the season, you'll look up and see that he quietly accumulated over 1,000 yards and was the Bills' most productive receiver. Added bonus: How 'bout them UB boys, eh? Jamarcus Ingram looks like a FIND at corner, and Cam Lewis has taken a lot of the sting out of losing Taron Johnson. The Bulls-to-Bills pipeline looking strong in 2024!

I saw a Dolphins player doing the "tipped" hand motion immediately after the kick when watching it live. Cannot confirm whether it was or not, but at least one Dolphins player seemed to think it was.

I would like to be the first in this thread to exercise a time-honored message board tradition: PUMP THE BRAKES.

Just to follow up on the "swing pass to the RB to beat the blitz was a basic call" discussion...I thought it was brilliantly designed, with the motions, misdirection, and built in rub/pick action. Anything but basic.

Nobody is as irrationally cocky as Dolphins fans. With Chiefs fans, I get it. Even with Ravens fans, I kind of get it, because they've had very good teams and they have a very good QB. But the DOLPHINS? They haven't been good in FOREVER. Once they got Tyreek and Mike McDaniel, all these boastful, loud, obnoxious Dolphins fans crawled out from under their rocks and started crowing loudly all over social media. As such, there is nothing sweeter than watching them get shut up, over and over and over again for three seasons straight now. Josh Allen owns the Dolphins. McDermott owns the Dolphins. The Dolphins are to the Bills what the Bills used to be to the Patriots. That's the reality. All of that having been said...the schadenfreude I get from spending the day on social media and the opponents' forums after a Bills win -- ESPECIALLY the Dolphins -- is incalculable. Endless fun. I'm usually content after a Bills win. Not over the top thrilled, just content. Like...job well done. But then getting on social media and opposition forums and reading their misery and griping? Giving them receipts for their awful pre-game takes? Now THAT'S fun. That's a hoot. I never get sick of that.

I completely agree that it was a coaching master class. For the Bills defense to do what it did last night, without arguably its three best players in Taron, Milano, and Bernard, was incredible. The Bills played great team defense, were fundamentally sound, committed only one accepted penalty, were generally mistake free, and played smart, efficient, mistake-free football. I thought the defense improved leaps and bounds from game one to game two. I am encouraged about that unit going forward, even with the injuries. Offensively, what has stood out to me is very few clunky or disjointed looking drives. Very few three-and-outs. Generally, they're moving the ball well and efficiently and with diverse looks, and then when they get to the red zone, they're scoring touchdowns at a good rate and not settling for field goals. With the caveat that Brady's offense is new and that eventually opposing defenses are gonna have more tape on it, and he's gonna need to have counter-punches, I still must say: so far, so good. Averaging 32 points a game. Running the ball well, spreading it around in the passing game, and not getting too cute. Well coached game on both sides. Well executed by the players. Very impressive night, in my opinion, from both an Xs and Os and Jimmies and Joes standpoint.

The Bills just held a potent passing offense with two star receivers to 10 points in their house. I think I'm less concerned about our two starting safeties than most others. Neither are stars, and both leave some plays on the field, but overall, as a unit, the defense was humming last night. Long term -- possibly by midseason -- Cole Bishop will be the starting free safety, with Rapp likely remaining the starting strong safety. But honestly, the foursome of Bishop, Rapp, Hamlin, and Edwards, with Lewis as break-glass-in-case-of-emergency depth there, is a better group than I think some give it credit for.

This game was Sean McDermott's wet dream: Excellent TEAM defense, fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball, won in the trenches, only one penalty, under 140 yards passing but the offense still put up 31 points. He's gotta be thrilled. He might even allow himself a single Reese's peanut butter cup. Nah. Who am I kidding? I heard how silly that sounded as soon as I said it. In all seriousness: for this defense to look as great as it did despite missing who they were missing, to win in the trenches on both sides, to play crisp, clean football, and dominate a good team like they just did? Really great showing. Run game, defense, forcing turnovers, no dumb mistakes, kept #17 clean. Sign me up for 15 more just like this.

There's a metric and a chart that regularly tracks how often NFL head coaches go for it on 4th down when they "should" (i.e. when the analytics say that it's statistically logical to do so), and McDermott consistently ranks at or near the very top. For any of the game day decision making things that people can knock McDermott for, this -- in my opinion -- is not one of them. He's become a very good (and usually aggressive) 4th down decision maker, and I expect that to continue this year. In fact, I expect him to be even MORE aggressive on 4th down due to Bass's struggles from 50+ yards out.

I thoughts Sean McDermott's explanation of it was well stated. It was clear he had a really tough time with the decision. He even said if it was 4th and 2 they would've gone for it, but 4th and 3 was a bridge too far. He rightly pointed out that even if they Bills had gone for it and converted, it wouldn't have necessarily put the game away, as the Cardinals still had all three timeouts. All in all, I was okay with the decision, because putting the opposing offense in a situation where they need a TD instead of a FG adds a SIGNIFICANT amount of stress and difficulty. Also, without that extra three points, that game was likely headed to overtime yesterday, as the Cards were already in field goal position at the end of the game. I don't fault anyone who would've preferred to go for it, but I thought it was the right call in the moment.