Logic

I'm with you on Samuel Jr. I think he is going to be picked earlier than people think, and I think he's going to be a good pro for a long time. I don't know if I think the Bills will be the team to pull the trigger, though it certainly wouldn't shock me if they were.

As for my "Slater picked before Sewell" prediction: Should be interesting, indeed. Opinions on Penei Sewell seem to vary wildly. I've heard everything from "Next Johnathan Ogden" to "Can't play left tackle in the pros".

Gruden: "Let's talk about my favorite play, Spider 2 Y Banana. See, the quarterback..." Mayock: "Sorry to cut you off, Jon, but a past-his-prime wide receiver with a flashy resume just became available". Gruden:

Nope. I know that guessing who a team will draft is pretty tough when said team is picking 30th, but that's the game.

I think there's a reasonably good chance you'll be disappointed on draft night.

I'll mark you down as "can't decide". 😝

Okay, okay. I get it. I think a trade-down or trade-up is a reasonable possibility, too. What I'm trying to ask here, though, is who do you think they'll take with their first pick? Pretend I didn't say "who will they pick in the 1st round", but instead said "Who will be their first selection". This is a player prognostication exercise.

So....You've gone through Brandon Beane's presser with a fine-tooth comb. You've debated and argued the comparative merits of pass rushers, corners, and running backs with everyone on The Stadium Wall. You've scoured Youtube highlight videos and analyst's big boards. You've done 50+ mock drafts on the Draft Network's simulator. Your thinking cap is worn out and you're ready for draft night to just GET HERE already! I want to know, fellow Bills lunatics: Who do YOU think the Bills will select with their first round pick? Not who you WANT them to take, but who you think they WILL take. Not a list of five different players, not an "if, then" scenario, just a simple answer: Which player will the Bills take in round one? Let's see who among us is Carnac the Magnificent. I'll start. I believe that with the 30th pick in the draft, the Bills will select Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington. I know, I know: You've probably seen him listed as more of an early to mid second round pick. I don't buy it. He has prototypical size and athleticism. He had college productivity (8 sacks and 12.5 TFLs in 2019). He has burst. He has a high motor and solid football character. He posted an elite RAS. We know Beane and his staff like toolsy prospects. Value wise? Dane Brugler has him ranked 32nd and Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked 35th on their respective big boards. Benjamin Allbright stated recently that not enough draftniks are talking abut Tryon, and that he will get drafted higher than people think. When Brandon Beane talked about drafting for the future and getting someone who may not start this year, but can learn from players that might be on the last year of their deals and then can take over next year, I immediately thought of Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. BOTH will be free agents after 2021, and the Bills simply cannot keep kicking the Edge rusher can down the road. They have Epenesa, sure, but they need another guy there with some juice and star potential. Tryon will learn under two great veteran rushers this season and, if all goes well, he and Epenesa will take over as the top two guys in 2022. Whereas I believe the Bills can find a starting caliber corner in round two (and IOL/IDL/WR help later on), I do not believe they can find an edge with much promise much beyond round one. So that's my take, TBD. How about you? Who do YOU think the Bills will draft on Thursday night?

One more thing: just building around a QB does NOT ensure that the rest will “just take care of itself”. Ask Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott. Defense still exists, and it still matters. You’re right. We just shouldn’t even bother then. Not like we plan to be competing with them for the next decade or anything.

Did you sleep through the AFC Championship game? The Chiefs scored 38 points on our defense. EASILY. They just toyed with us. It looked like JV vs the varsity squad. If Gale Sayers and Jim Brown had a baby, and that baby played running back for the Bills in the AFCCG, the chiefs would’ve still won handily. By the way, if you want another weapon for Josh in the passing game in the form of a receiving back, ETN ain’t that guy. Harris is.

Sure. That’s fair. You overpay to get your guy and then, if your guy is a hit, you win football games and compete for titles for a decade+. Them’s the breaks.

In King’s mock, no worthy corners are left at 30. Azeez Ojulari, Zaven Collins, Christian Barmore, Trevon Moehrig, Creed Humphrey, and Landon Dickerson are all still available. One could argue that any one of them would help this team more than Etienne.

I agree that a trade down (or a trade back up into round 2 from 3) would likely present better value. I also think he’ll be taken earlier than the current popular wisdom suggests. I think the league is higher on him than the average draftnik.

I maintain that the Bills are more likely to draft Asante Samuel than many would think. Perhaps not at 30, but I think it’s a very real possibility. Discount McDermott having coached his father at your own peril. I’m not saying it’s a lock, but it doesn’t get nearly the discussion it should, IMO. Furthermore, this front office loves “toolsy” prospects (think Allen and Edmunds), so interest in Phillips and Oweh would make sense to me.

Personally, I believe Samuel can play outside. He is the exact same height and weight as his father. Further, his versatility to play inside or outside will appeal to the Bills, who love positional versatility.

Yep. The QBs that get drafted in the top five every year are often not in the top 10 or 20 players overall. They get drafted earlier than their value dictates because of the position they play. No one, for instance, believes Wilson is a better player than Pitts, and yet... Anyway, aside from the QB value discussion, I’m still just so glad that the Jets messed up the opportunity to get Trevor Lawrence. Could Wilson be good? Absolutely. He is way less of a sure thing than Lawrence, though.

1. Javonte Williams is the second running back drafted. 2. Asante Samuel Jr will be drafted way higher than most mocks and analysts have him going — possibly by the Bills, whose head coach coached Samuel’s father during his prime. 3. Jayson Oweh will be drafted before Jaelan Phillips 4. The 49ers will draft Justin Fields at 3, not the popular choice of Mac Jones. 5. Rashawn Slater will be drafted before Penei Sewell.

Im guessing their asking price has come down from a 3 to a 4. We don’t have a 4. If they were only asking a 5, the deal would’ve already been done, imo. In the end, I bet he ends up reuniting with Reich and Wentz in Indy in exchange for a 4. Thats all guesswork on my part, but I’m stickin to it.

This one's a classic. Simple, beautiful. The words spell out American Beauty (the album's name), but also spell out American Reality.

I like it. But then, I also like Asante Samuel Jr more than some seem to. Only critique is that one or two of those EDGE prospects might have to spend a year on the practice squad. With Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Obada, and Weaver, it's hard to see Toney or Rumph making the 53-man roster.

This draft saw a run on edge prospects, corners, and WRs, causing me to explore what a "running back in the 1st round" draft could look like, even though that's really not my preference. It didn't turn out too bad, actually. I feel it addresses all major defensive needs (CB2, 1T, Edge, Nickel corner), and adds elite speed to the offense.

For what it's worth, Dane Brugler, who is one of the better draft analysts out there, has Mond listed at 138 on his final Big Board. It's such a weird year because of opt-outs and lack of combine and all of those things, I bet you'll find that a guy like Mond varies wildly from person to person in terms of his draft value.

Welp, it's the late third round of an imaginary message board draft, and it's 10 hours past when the Lions GM was supposed to pick. So maybe....let's not worry about it too much?

The Draft Network has Kellen Mond listed 99th on their big board and Davis Mills 108. Lions are picking 101st, so the value seems reasonable on either, and backup/developmental QB is certainly a need. I say give them Mond and call it a day.

That's where my mind went, too, the first time I saw this picture. I'm kind of......worried for her?