Logic

Yeah. Despite his great start last year, his play in the Chiefs, Titans, Patriots, and Jets games that followed had me thinking that the beginning of the year was an outlier. Then the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, second Pats, and second Dolphins games happened. After seeing the full body of work of his season and the statistics at year's end, it was undeniable that he had made a jump. Then he won two playoff games, one of which he played just okay in and one of which I felt he played really well in. It's not easy to win playoff games in this league, and he led his team to two wins. I'll be honest: before I can feel totally, completely, 100% secure in him being as elite as he now seems to be, I'd like to see him repeat last year's success this year, with fans in the stands and when everybody sees him coming. Regardless, I can see that the floor for him is pretty high -- and the very least, he's a QB you can win with. But in order for me to be completely sure that he's top tier, elite, best-in-the-league caliber going forward, I'd like to see him do it again.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I sure don’t look back at that Chiefs game and think “Devin Singletary’s drop is why we lost!” The Chiefs were the better team that day, and it couldn’t have been any clearer — drop or no drop.

The premise of this thread is a good one. Its not a great draft year. As the OP stated, the pool of available players is much smaller. Due to lack of combine, medical testing is sorely lacking. Opt-outs create additional uncertainty. I have read that some teams only have about 16-18 players with first round grades. I wouldn’t fault a team for trading up and getting “their guy”, nor would I fault a team for trading down and collecting more “lottery tickets” in this wonky draft.

I confess: I bought into all of the anti Josh Allen hype. I was team "anyone but Josh". Moreover, aside from all the stuff from national pundits and draftniks, it was the Bills' previous two 1st round quarterback selections that scared me off of Allen: both were guys with great physical talent and big arms, but questionable accuracy and decision making. I saw Allen as just another JP Losman, just another EJ Manuel. I had no idea he was a running threat. I had no idea that he had the heart and will of a lion and the unbridled hatred of losing necessary to become great. Instead, I coveted the throwing accuracy of Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen. I also did not foresee the rapid shift the NFL would take toward mobile QBs who can improvise and make their best plays out of structure, and away from immobile, pure pocket passers. I was looking for a QB like the ones I had seen succeed from 1998 to 2018, rather than anticipating which way the league was heading. When Goodell announced the pick, the split second between when he said "Josh..." and "....Allen" seemed to last an eternity. I was immediately depressed. It didn't take me long to come around. As soon as we drafted him, I said "welp, he's a Bill now, so I'm gonna root like hell for him no matter what". I turned on "every throw" cut-ups from every college game of his I could find. Watching the footage and asking myself "what did Beane and McDermott see in this guy? What did they see that I (and so many others) did not?", I began to see his throws through new eyes. Maybe (probably) it was just a case of talking myself into liking him rather than being down in the dumps, but by the end of all those clips, I thought "This kid could be something". By the end of the Vikings game in his rookie season, I was all in. I've never, ever been so glad to be so wrong.

I agree that McShay is unreliable. His word is worth nothing to me. Benjamin Allbright, on the other hand, has proven to be right about Bills draft preferences for several years running now. He has stuck to his "RB in the 1st" guns this year the same way he stuck to his "the Bills love Allen, he's their guy" guns for months back in 2018. Bills fans talk a bunch of crap to him because they don't want it to be true (just like when he knew they liked Allen), but he doesn't change his tune. He could be wrong about where the Bills are looking in the 1st round, but as he pointed out, it would be the first time in a while. I'm not exactly sure why it's so hard for many fans to believe that the Bills wouldn't trade up for a home run hitting running back like Etienne when their GM has said the following things this offseason: "we'd take a guy if he had something that our current RBs don't offer" and "our current RB room lacks that home run hitter", and when said GM tried to trade up for a running back just last year (Moss), and when said GM has a history of trading up for guys he covets. It's no slam dunk lock that it's going to happen, but the "ZERO CHANCE!!!!" people make me chuckle.

Any time a journalist or media personality provides draft intel that aligns with one's preferences, it's legitimate. Any time a journalist or media personality provides draft intel that DOES NOT align with one's preferences, it's a smokescreen. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I understand the argument against the value of a running back in the 1st round -- really, I do. But the amount of anger and disappointment that many Bills fans will feel about adding a player who averaged 7.2 yards per carry (!), 11.3 yards per catch (!), and scored 78 TDs in college to a team whose leading rusher in the playoffs was its QUARTERBACK and whose RBs are a couple of JAGs ....is kind of astounding.

Dude scored 78 touchdowns in college. 78! I'm not on Team "round 1 RB" at all, but if ETN winds up a Bill, I'm not gonna whine and cry over their having added a player with that kind of scoring productivity to this offense.

I don't know about McShay, but I DO trust Benjamin Allbright's credibility when it comes to his league connections and Bills predictions. It was actually one month ago, but still. The original Tweet:

I'll be really disappointed and confused if Allen DOESN'T become a national star and get endorsement deals and commercials. If Allen has another season in the same neighborhood of productivity as he did this year and the Bills keep winning, why WOULDN'T companies want him as a pitch man? He's a smart, funny, engaging, well spoken, charismatic, high character guy and an electrifying player. He has "face of the league" written all over him. It the counter argument is "he plays for a small market", well...my counter arguments are "Aaron Rodgers" and "Baker Mayfield". Both play in small markets. Allen has more charisma than the former and is more likable than the latter.

I'm with you on Samuel Jr. I think he is going to be picked earlier than people think, and I think he's going to be a good pro for a long time. I don't know if I think the Bills will be the team to pull the trigger, though it certainly wouldn't shock me if they were.

As for my "Slater picked before Sewell" prediction: Should be interesting, indeed. Opinions on Penei Sewell seem to vary wildly. I've heard everything from "Next Johnathan Ogden" to "Can't play left tackle in the pros".

Gruden: "Let's talk about my favorite play, Spider 2 Y Banana. See, the quarterback..." Mayock: "Sorry to cut you off, Jon, but a past-his-prime wide receiver with a flashy resume just became available". Gruden:

Nope. I know that guessing who a team will draft is pretty tough when said team is picking 30th, but that's the game.

I think there's a reasonably good chance you'll be disappointed on draft night.

I'll mark you down as "can't decide". 😝

Okay, okay. I get it. I think a trade-down or trade-up is a reasonable possibility, too. What I'm trying to ask here, though, is who do you think they'll take with their first pick? Pretend I didn't say "who will they pick in the 1st round", but instead said "Who will be their first selection". This is a player prognostication exercise.

So....You've gone through Brandon Beane's presser with a fine-tooth comb. You've debated and argued the comparative merits of pass rushers, corners, and running backs with everyone on The Stadium Wall. You've scoured Youtube highlight videos and analyst's big boards. You've done 50+ mock drafts on the Draft Network's simulator. Your thinking cap is worn out and you're ready for draft night to just GET HERE already! I want to know, fellow Bills lunatics: Who do YOU think the Bills will select with their first round pick? Not who you WANT them to take, but who you think they WILL take. Not a list of five different players, not an "if, then" scenario, just a simple answer: Which player will the Bills take in round one? Let's see who among us is Carnac the Magnificent. I'll start. I believe that with the 30th pick in the draft, the Bills will select Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington. I know, I know: You've probably seen him listed as more of an early to mid second round pick. I don't buy it. He has prototypical size and athleticism. He had college productivity (8 sacks and 12.5 TFLs in 2019). He has burst. He has a high motor and solid football character. He posted an elite RAS. We know Beane and his staff like toolsy prospects. Value wise? Dane Brugler has him ranked 32nd and Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked 35th on their respective big boards. Benjamin Allbright stated recently that not enough draftniks are talking abut Tryon, and that he will get drafted higher than people think. When Brandon Beane talked about drafting for the future and getting someone who may not start this year, but can learn from players that might be on the last year of their deals and then can take over next year, I immediately thought of Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. BOTH will be free agents after 2021, and the Bills simply cannot keep kicking the Edge rusher can down the road. They have Epenesa, sure, but they need another guy there with some juice and star potential. Tryon will learn under two great veteran rushers this season and, if all goes well, he and Epenesa will take over as the top two guys in 2022. Whereas I believe the Bills can find a starting caliber corner in round two (and IOL/IDL/WR help later on), I do not believe they can find an edge with much promise much beyond round one. So that's my take, TBD. How about you? Who do YOU think the Bills will draft on Thursday night?

One more thing: just building around a QB does NOT ensure that the rest will “just take care of itself”. Ask Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott. Defense still exists, and it still matters. You’re right. We just shouldn’t even bother then. Not like we plan to be competing with them for the next decade or anything.

Did you sleep through the AFC Championship game? The Chiefs scored 38 points on our defense. EASILY. They just toyed with us. It looked like JV vs the varsity squad. If Gale Sayers and Jim Brown had a baby, and that baby played running back for the Bills in the AFCCG, the chiefs would’ve still won handily. By the way, if you want another weapon for Josh in the passing game in the form of a receiving back, ETN ain’t that guy. Harris is.

Sure. That’s fair. You overpay to get your guy and then, if your guy is a hit, you win football games and compete for titles for a decade+. Them’s the breaks.

In King’s mock, no worthy corners are left at 30. Azeez Ojulari, Zaven Collins, Christian Barmore, Trevon Moehrig, Creed Humphrey, and Landon Dickerson are all still available. One could argue that any one of them would help this team more than Etienne.

I agree that a trade down (or a trade back up into round 2 from 3) would likely present better value. I also think he’ll be taken earlier than the current popular wisdom suggests. I think the league is higher on him than the average draftnik.

I maintain that the Bills are more likely to draft Asante Samuel than many would think. Perhaps not at 30, but I think it’s a very real possibility. Discount McDermott having coached his father at your own peril. I’m not saying it’s a lock, but it doesn’t get nearly the discussion it should, IMO. Furthermore, this front office loves “toolsy” prospects (think Allen and Edmunds), so interest in Phillips and Oweh would make sense to me.