Logic

Where’s the picture, House? You’re slipping.

Totally fair. Based on Allbright apparently having a source within the Bills (which he has subtly implied), I think what this says is that if ETN is on the board at 30, he’s their guy. With 29 picks happening before the Bills are up, it only takes one team to ruin the Bills’ plan and thus, to make Allbright’s pick wrong. I think it’s reasonable to conclude that ETN might be their preferred player based on who they think will be available. Allbright also previously stated that the Bills will be flexible if a player of high value at a premium position slips. If the board falls as many expect, it might be time to buy a #9 Bills jersey.

To be fair, It’s been said that Farley would fall down draft boards for a while now. I read at least a week ago that teams suspect that he is being overly optimistic in stating that he’ll be ready for training camp. I believe it was Albert Breer’s MMQB column that pointed out that team doctors have different opinions of Farley’s recovery outlook than Farley’s camp does.

Benjamin Allbright only posts one mock draft each year. He posts it the day before the draft. **Edit: He has known which direction the Bills were leaning several years running (not last year, as they had no 1st round pick). He sometimes knows the specific player they like, but usually at least knows the position they most want to pick in round 1. From what I have experienced in the past few years, he seems to have legitimate league sources. This year, he said over a month ago that they were looking running back and has stuck to his guns ever since. Lo and behold, in his mock, he has them taking Etienne even with Newsome and Barmore still on the board. I’m posting this only because Allbright seems to have legit league sources, particularly one with the Bills, and he’s way more accurate/trustworthy than most. Take from it what you will. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-round-albright/

If this is true (and Allbright is usually pretty sharp, so I bet it is), I wonder when would be the appropriate time to draft him. Even if he doesn’t contribute much in 2021, if he’s expected to make a full recovery, he could be a hell of a value pick on day two. I wonder who else will fall out of round one based on medical questions. I read yesterday that Azeez Ojulari might be in that category. Gonna be an interesting few days!

Two things: 1.) Your first paragraph completely pretends the Bucs didn’t just beat the Chiefs by limiting them to 9 points in the Super Bowl. You DO NOT “have to” get into a shootout with them and have the ball last, and simply waving the white flag and saying “screw it. Why even try to stop them?” is defeatist and weak. 2.) You have a way of talking to people — not just in the quoted post but in general, ever since you showed up here — that is very condescending and insulting. It is okay to disagree with people and still be respectful toward them. We’re all Bills fans here. Lastly, the Bills ranked 2nd in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense last year. If you feel that adding to the already great offense is the best way to improve the team, then that’s your prerogative. But to continually act like addressing the unit that ranked 16th is madness, and that addressing the unit that ranked 2nd is the one and only path to improvement, is confounding. There’s more than one way to skin a cat, and many feel that addressing the side of the ball that was objectively worse is a better way to skin this one. That doesn’t make them worthy of your belittlement.

That seems unfair. I thought he made some very valid points in this video. The pass yards to rush yards ratio as it relates to Super Bowl winners, for instance, is a very interesting statistic that I had never seen before. p.s. These opinions rarely represent how a talking head really feels. Each guy is assigned a talking point, and then they find ways to back up the talking point they've been assigned. That's how these shows work. Any accusation of inconsistency of opinion or things like that should go out the window. They're debating for entertainment purposes, and the particular needs of each program to have the various positions in each debate represented dictate who will espouse what position.

This is such a great point, and is going largely overlooked/ignored in the national discussion of Zach Wilson. I know one thing: I would be absolutely terrified to be selecting a QB based on one good season under the circumstances you just described. Everything about choosing a previously unimpressive and physically unimposing player because he suddenly dominated a bizarre, COVID-stained season against poorly prepared cupcake competition -- and choosing said player over a more proven, consistently successful and athletically gifted QB like Fields -- screams "extremely high risk" to me. Which brings me back to my original feeling: joy and relief that the Jets are forced to have to make this decision rather than taking a guy in Lawrence who certainly looks like a pretty sure thing.

Leaving the draft aside for a moment, I'll just say that I think Singletary and Moss can absolutely provide what's needed in the running game. Go back and watch some of Singletary's highlights from his rookie season. Go back and watch Moss and Singletary in the Chargers and first Patriots games. These guys can both ball. I'm not saying the Bills will have a top five rushing attack, but they don't need to. They're going to win and lose on the arm of Josh Allen for the next decade+, as they should. But Moss and Singletary can give them enough to make their rushing offense more effective. People overrate speed in running backs, in my opinion. Matt Breida has world class speed for a running back, and he's on his third team at age 26. Give me vision, contact balance, lateral agility, tackle-breaking ability over sprinter speed any day. I believe Motor WILL have a bounce-back year, and I believe Moss will have a good sophomore campaign, and I believe that when we're all sitting here next April, running back will be the last thing we're worried about.

Regarding the two bolded portions... I agree with the overall point. But to be fair to league evaluators, Allen's running ability was kind of a surprise. It didn't show up QUITE so clearly on tape. He could evade pressure and move the chains, sure, but I don't think anyone saw just HOW dynamic a runner he was. Even Josh HIMSELF said that he didn't know he could run like that. I believe Beane and McDermott are also both on record saying that Josh's running ability kind of caught them by surprise. As another poster said earlier in this thread, his running ability may be THE thing that allowed him to stay on the field and keep learning on the job until the passing part came along. As for the Broncos...I will never, ever, in a million years understand how Elway passed on Josh Allen. Laramie, Wyoming, is a two hour drive from Denver. Two hours! He was right in their back yard! The Broncos, out of all teams, had the most opportunity to really dig into this kid and get to know him...and for some reason, they didn't. For some reason, John Elway, who everyone knows loves big, strong, fast QBs with howitzer arms...decided that Josh Allen wasn't for him! The ONE time in his GM life that he decided to pass on such a supremely physically talented quarterback, and boy did he pick the wrong time to do it. Then, by the very next draft, he was back in the "big armed QB" saddle again. Now, maybe Drew Lock will turn out to be a good one, but I sincerely doubt that there's a Broncos fan or executive alive right now that wouldn't rather have Josh Allen. The Broncos' lack of interest in Josh Allen will forever confound me, but boy am I thankful for it!

Honestly, if they are....good for them! Smart team building. Tua is a lefty, so having a high quality RT is just as important, if not more so, than having a high quality LT. I've also read that Sewell has been training at RT this offseason, just in case the team that drafts him plans to start him there.

I'm just sitting here this morning laughing about the fact that the Jets messed up the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence. Now, instead of getting a prospect who is described in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning/John Elway category, they've got to decide who is the "best of the rest". Clearly, they've decided to take Zach Wilson. But is that smart? Is an undersized (and I don't just mean his height, he's also sleight of frame and has small hands) one-year wonder with a cupcake schedule from BYU really going to be the franchise savior in the bright lights of NY? Moreover, are teams overthinking the Justin Fields thing? Did I just imagine that Fields had 51 total touchdowns and just three picks in 2019? Did I just fever dream that he threw 6 touchdowns against Clemson in a Bowl game?! This Fields situation is reminding me of Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. By that I mean that both of those guys had proven production against big time college opponents. We didn't have to guess whether or not they could play well against the big boys, because we saw them do it. And yet, Mitchell Trubisky was taken over Deshaun Watson. Josh Rosen was taken over Lamar Jackson. Is history repeating here? I know, I know, you've got to look past the stats and look instead at the specific traits that each guy possesses, and then project them to the pros. But that's maybe kind of what I mean when I say "overthinking it". Fields was dynamic! Prior to this year, Wilson was a 6th-7th round prospect! In any case, I love the fact that the Jets missed out on Lawrence and are hitching their wagon to a one-year wonder. I love the fact that they ran a prospect who was arguably just as good as the guy they're about to draft (if not better) out of town, and now have to start from scratch. And again, I can't help but wonder if Justin Fields really should be the obvious choice as QB2 based on his dynamic running ability, arm, and proven production against NFL level players. Are we gonna look back on this draft and wonder how the heck teams got it so wrong on Fields, just as they did with Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson?

Nah. They'll take an offensive weapon at 6 and a defender later in the 1st. I do think they'd be wise to add a tackle, though, and kick Robert Hunt inside. They'd have: Jackson - Kindley - Karras - Hunt - rookie (Eichenberg/Jenkins/Cosmi,etc). Much better than what they have now.

compliance pretzels

Yeah. Despite his great start last year, his play in the Chiefs, Titans, Patriots, and Jets games that followed had me thinking that the beginning of the year was an outlier. Then the Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, second Pats, and second Dolphins games happened. After seeing the full body of work of his season and the statistics at year's end, it was undeniable that he had made a jump. Then he won two playoff games, one of which he played just okay in and one of which I felt he played really well in. It's not easy to win playoff games in this league, and he led his team to two wins. I'll be honest: before I can feel totally, completely, 100% secure in him being as elite as he now seems to be, I'd like to see him repeat last year's success this year, with fans in the stands and when everybody sees him coming. Regardless, I can see that the floor for him is pretty high -- and the very least, he's a QB you can win with. But in order for me to be completely sure that he's top tier, elite, best-in-the-league caliber going forward, I'd like to see him do it again.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I sure don’t look back at that Chiefs game and think “Devin Singletary’s drop is why we lost!” The Chiefs were the better team that day, and it couldn’t have been any clearer — drop or no drop.

The premise of this thread is a good one. Its not a great draft year. As the OP stated, the pool of available players is much smaller. Due to lack of combine, medical testing is sorely lacking. Opt-outs create additional uncertainty. I have read that some teams only have about 16-18 players with first round grades. I wouldn’t fault a team for trading up and getting “their guy”, nor would I fault a team for trading down and collecting more “lottery tickets” in this wonky draft.

I confess: I bought into all of the anti Josh Allen hype. I was team "anyone but Josh". Moreover, aside from all the stuff from national pundits and draftniks, it was the Bills' previous two 1st round quarterback selections that scared me off of Allen: both were guys with great physical talent and big arms, but questionable accuracy and decision making. I saw Allen as just another JP Losman, just another EJ Manuel. I had no idea he was a running threat. I had no idea that he had the heart and will of a lion and the unbridled hatred of losing necessary to become great. Instead, I coveted the throwing accuracy of Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen. I also did not foresee the rapid shift the NFL would take toward mobile QBs who can improvise and make their best plays out of structure, and away from immobile, pure pocket passers. I was looking for a QB like the ones I had seen succeed from 1998 to 2018, rather than anticipating which way the league was heading. When Goodell announced the pick, the split second between when he said "Josh..." and "....Allen" seemed to last an eternity. I was immediately depressed. It didn't take me long to come around. As soon as we drafted him, I said "welp, he's a Bill now, so I'm gonna root like hell for him no matter what". I turned on "every throw" cut-ups from every college game of his I could find. Watching the footage and asking myself "what did Beane and McDermott see in this guy? What did they see that I (and so many others) did not?", I began to see his throws through new eyes. Maybe (probably) it was just a case of talking myself into liking him rather than being down in the dumps, but by the end of all those clips, I thought "This kid could be something". By the end of the Vikings game in his rookie season, I was all in. I've never, ever been so glad to be so wrong.

I agree that McShay is unreliable. His word is worth nothing to me. Benjamin Allbright, on the other hand, has proven to be right about Bills draft preferences for several years running now. He has stuck to his "RB in the 1st" guns this year the same way he stuck to his "the Bills love Allen, he's their guy" guns for months back in 2018. Bills fans talk a bunch of crap to him because they don't want it to be true (just like when he knew they liked Allen), but he doesn't change his tune. He could be wrong about where the Bills are looking in the 1st round, but as he pointed out, it would be the first time in a while. I'm not exactly sure why it's so hard for many fans to believe that the Bills wouldn't trade up for a home run hitting running back like Etienne when their GM has said the following things this offseason: "we'd take a guy if he had something that our current RBs don't offer" and "our current RB room lacks that home run hitter", and when said GM tried to trade up for a running back just last year (Moss), and when said GM has a history of trading up for guys he covets. It's no slam dunk lock that it's going to happen, but the "ZERO CHANCE!!!!" people make me chuckle.

Any time a journalist or media personality provides draft intel that aligns with one's preferences, it's legitimate. Any time a journalist or media personality provides draft intel that DOES NOT align with one's preferences, it's a smokescreen. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I understand the argument against the value of a running back in the 1st round -- really, I do. But the amount of anger and disappointment that many Bills fans will feel about adding a player who averaged 7.2 yards per carry (!), 11.3 yards per catch (!), and scored 78 TDs in college to a team whose leading rusher in the playoffs was its QUARTERBACK and whose RBs are a couple of JAGs ....is kind of astounding.

Dude scored 78 touchdowns in college. 78! I'm not on Team "round 1 RB" at all, but if ETN winds up a Bill, I'm not gonna whine and cry over their having added a player with that kind of scoring productivity to this offense.

I don't know about McShay, but I DO trust Benjamin Allbright's credibility when it comes to his league connections and Bills predictions. It was actually one month ago, but still. The original Tweet:

I'll be really disappointed and confused if Allen DOESN'T become a national star and get endorsement deals and commercials. If Allen has another season in the same neighborhood of productivity as he did this year and the Bills keep winning, why WOULDN'T companies want him as a pitch man? He's a smart, funny, engaging, well spoken, charismatic, high character guy and an electrifying player. He has "face of the league" written all over him. It the counter argument is "he plays for a small market", well...my counter arguments are "Aaron Rodgers" and "Baker Mayfield". Both play in small markets. Allen has more charisma than the former and is more likable than the latter.