Logic

Nah. I said it just to bother you.

You mean the 2020 season that saw the Bills losing handily to the Chiefs in the AFCCG and then ended with a Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl? Yeah, I remember that. Exactly my point. I’m seeing more people picking the Bills than the Chiefs or the Bucs. The Chiefs beat the Bills twice last year and the Bucs return all 22 starters. What changed?

I've noticed over the past week or so that more and more local and national reporters, analysts, and talking heads are picking the Bills to win the Super Bowl. Many are also picking Josh Allen to win the MVP award. Whereas earlier this offseason it was all "will Josh Allen regress?" and "can the Bills fix their pass rush?", now I'm just seeing a whole lot of "Bills win the Super Bowl" predictions. What changed? Was it the preseason performance against the Packers? The training camp reports of Allen and the offense being lights out? The perceived improvement of the pass rush? Are the Bills just the "trendy" pick all of the sudden? I'm sure there's much more than I'm listing here, but here's just a small collection of what I'm talking about. I'm not sure how to feel about all this but here we are. What a time to be a Bills fan.

I'll be at the game this Sunday, and this is pretty much what I was expecting. Not great, but predictable. Did you see ANY masked folks at the game?

Thanks.

As opposed to your scientifically unimpeachable, not at all subjective or hunchy analysis? Nothing subjective or hunchy or fan-speak-y in there. Nope. MILES better than what I wrote. Very objective and well articulated 🙄

I read back in April that Hammer's Lot is requiring proof of vaccination for entry into the lot. Does anyone know if that is still the case?

Thanks. I usually like being in the stadium early, any way. I like seeing pre-game warmups and introductions and pyro and planes and all that jazz. Gonna have to remember to be at the gates extra early this week. Nothing worse than spending all that money/effort getting to a game and then being stuck in that drunken cattle herd and hearing the sounds of the crowd at the opening kickoff from outside the stadium.

All good, it indeed was not directed at you.

I'm guessing from this response that you didn't actually read the post in this thread where I explained exactly why I think the Steelers will win this one. I listed EXACTLY why I think they take it: Good head coach who isn't going to take two straight losses to the Bills lightly, a fresher Big Ben, an improved running game with Najee Harris, a healthier defense than the Bills have face the last two times out, and the Bills players being too hyped up in front of the raucous crowd (a phenomenon we've seen before with this team). I listed at least as many and as valid a set of reasons for my prediction as you did for yours. As for "guys like me"....again, not so sure you know what you're talking about here. I'm a pretty relentlessly optimistic person, and I said in that same post that I expect the Bills to win 12 or 13 games this year. Assuming you don't believe they'll win all 17 (which I do not), it seems reasonable and necessary to predict a loss every now and again. Predicting that one of said losses comes against a high quality head coach with a Hall of Fame quarterback isn't exactly ground-breaking stuff. I'm not saying anyone has to agree with me -- I recognize that mine is the minority opinion. But to suggest that I didn't explain why I'm predicting a loss or that I'm some type of consistently negative poster is inaccurate and a poor characterization. It's not. I believe the Bills will win 12 or 13 games this year and take the division. I just don't think they'll win all 17 games.

I'm just curious: am I the lone soul picking the Steelers to win this one? It sure feels that way.

I'll be in the stands, screaming my head off and banging on the seats. I'm a little nervous about going, for obvious reasons, but life is short and I love the Bills, so here we are. It's gonna be an absolutely insane game day atmosphere. Sometimes, this Bills roster comes out a little bit too hyped up in situations like this. As much as it will negatively affect the Steelers, it won't surprise me if it negatively affects the Bills a little bit, too, at least in the first quarter. While I think the Bills will have a great season and win 12 or so games, I am picking the Steelers to steal one here. The Bills have beaten them the last two times out, sure, but this game feels different to me. Duck Hodges will not be the quarterback. We will be seeing Roethlisberger right at the start of the season, rather than later in the season, meaning that his arm should be fresher. The Steelers defense will be healthier than the last couple times we played them -- even though Stephon Tuitt being out is a big blow. Najee Harris should add a dimension to their offense that it lacked last year. At the end of the day, Mike Tomlin is a great coach, Big Ben is a Hall of Fame quarterback, they have a great corps of offensive playmakers, and their defense is likely to be elite. As previously mentioned, I also expect our guys to be a little too hyper in front of the raucous crowd. Ultimately, the Bills win 12 or 13 games, but week 1 isn't one of them. Steelers 23, Bills 19

Live look at Nick Wright:

I’ll tell ya who was REALLY ranked too low on that list: Marion Motley.

Thank you so much !

So true. I use a VPN to buy NFL Gamepass every year, but I shouldn't have to jump through those hoops. Just let American customers give you their $250 and have the ability to stream it from their computer or Smart TV. Is that so hard?

What's the link or website? It doesn't come up on my work computer and I want to pull it up on my phone and watch it.

Agreed. That said, in 2011, I was driving from Ithaca to Orchard Park for the Bills-Pats game. "Don't stop Believin'" came on the radio, and at that moment I saw a Seneca white deer -- a rare, all-white deer that I had never seen before -- in the meadow to the side of the road. I took it as a sign that the Bills would beat the Pats that day. Lo and behold, they did! Thanks, random white deer and terrible Journey song!

When trailing leading into the 4th quarter, I've often heard "Livin on a Prayer" or "Don't Stop Believin". After a win, there's a decent chance you'll hear "Sweet Caroline". That one seems to have migrated from Boston to just about everywhere. And never forget:

Warring sounds a lot like Dawson Knox. Really athletic, new to the position. Limited production in college, but has the athleticism and grit to suggest he could develop at tight end. Yet another instance of the personnel department handing a raw lump of clay to the coaches and saying "get after it!". https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kahale-warring/32005741-5275-2700-ebaf-ccabda046f86 Kahale Kuio Kalani Michael Wodehouse Warring [editor's note: what a name!] was a latecomer to football, starring instead in just about every other sport possible (water polo, basketball, cross county, swimming, soccer and tennis) during his time at Sonora High School in California. His one season on the gridiron gained enough interest from SDSU that he was given a shot as a walk-on. Warring redshirted the 2015 season while bulking up, and then played in four games as a reserve (2-17-8.5, two touchdowns) the following year before a broken foot cut the year short. Coaches gave him a scholarship before the 2017 season, and he ended up starting 3 of 13 games played (18-248-13.8, three TD). Warring only started twice in 12 games played in 2018 but was still named honorable mention All-Mountain West because he led the Aztecs with 31 receptions (which went for 372 yards, 12.0 average, and three scores). He did not play in the team's bowl game due to a hamstring injury suffered in the regular-season finale. Overview Exciting and ascending, Warring is still a relative newcomer to the game, but he has the size, speed and athleticism to become a versatile, high-impact player on the pro level. He has the competitiveness to handle run-blocking duties and the talent to line up in the slot. While his production won't catch your eye, his tape does with quickness and ball skills that should make him a more productive target in the NFL than he was in college. Strengths - Chiseled, athletic frame with very good size - Has blocking toughness and just needs to improve technique - Snaps hands and hips into engagement - Good radar in space as move-blocker - Races off snap and into seam with plus acceleration - Early speed to lose linebackers - Nifty, quick feet for sharp directional change in routes - Talented to work all three levels as receiver - Former basketball player and it shows - Able to post up defenders and win body positioning - Sudden leaper with springs to win at the high-point - Makes mid-air ball adjustments - Ability to run past or drag tacklers after catch Weaknesses - Needs to improve his landmarks as run-blocker - Slow-starter getting into lateral blocks and loses positioning - Inconsistent hands as base-blocker - Needs to improve timing on work-up blocks - Still relatively inexperienced with modest career production - Not as clever in setting up route breaks as he could be - Will need to work quicker and be more sudden with red zone work - Dropped too many easy catches in 2018 Sources Tell Us "He's exciting to project because he hasn't played that much football and he still has big-time flashes. He's one of those guys who was good at everything in high school athletics, and that usually translates out on the field." -- West Coast scout for NFC team

I can't think of anything more silly than attempting to determine the best fan base in football by polling everybody on social media. It's great for the website, sure. It drives clicks and viewer engagement and gets everyone arguing and re-tweeting and yelling at each other on "First Take". But as an actual means of determining how good a fan base is? Clown shoes. We alllllll know where Bills fans rank. Fox Sports can run a poll a month until Jesus returns to the earth, and it won't change a thing. Clown shoes.

I'm trying to learn to look at NFL offenses in terms of "threats" or playmakers. In other words, who are the top targets on the offense? Who does the defense have to account for every play? Ideally, you'd like to have 3-4 of those guys on your offense. The Bills do, in Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabe Davis -- and now likely in Emmanuel Sanders. When you're already throwing a significant number of passes to four different receivers, it's going to be hard to find many opportunities to get the ball to your tight end. When people talk about the Chiefs and the 49ers and how awesome and game-changing their tight ends are, the "how many threats/weapons does the offense have?" question gets glossed over. In the case of the Chiefs, I count Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That is to say that the Chiefs don't necessarily have more offensive weapons than the Bills do, one of them just happens to be a tight end. Ditto the 49ers. They have Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle. Still in that 3-4 range. The "star #1 WR and star TE" model works for those offenses, but it doesn't signify that they're any more potent than the Bills' setup of a star #1 WR and a host of talented 2s and 3s. I would argue that the Bills' pass-catching corps -- including TEs and WRs -- is just as deep and talented, if not more so, than the Chiefs and 49ers. The talent is just distributed differently. If we suddenly DID have a star TE, I'm not sure we could get him the targets to justify the pay he would command. And if we DID come up with those targets, it would be at the expense of Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, and Davis. There are different ways to skin a cat. At the end of the day, all that matters is "how many points did you score?", and the Bills scored the most last year that they ever have in team history -- sans star tight end.

Agreed. Their WR2 position is like the Bills' CB2 position. They always have a passable/decent player there, but they seem determined not to put a real threat there. I suppose Hardman could break out this year, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm surprised that the Bills don't even seem to want him for the practice squad. They seem to have decided that Quintin Morris is a more worthwhile practice squad stash than Hollister. Huh.