Logic

In my opinion, the healthy guys -- Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis, Richard Sherman, and Antoine Winfield Jr -- are enough to make the secondary rather imposing. Combine it with their absolutely filthy front seven and it COULD be a long day for the Bills offense. That said, I have a weird feeling the Bills offense plays well this Sunday. I have no rational explanation for feeling that way. Just a hunch.

As far as I know, Carlton Davis will be good to go, Richard Sherman has been activated from IR and will likely play, and Jamel Dean is questionable. Should know more when today's practice report comes out.

Been considering the same. I grew up in Rochester but haven't lived there since I left at age 18. The rent and home prices seemingly ANYWHERE in the country other than WNY are insane. I live in Portland, OR currently, and there's not a chance in hell that I can reasonably afford a house here. For what I'd spend on a small, 1 bedroom, ranch style house in the city here, I could get a five bedroom palace with acres of land and a creek in WNY. Truly. It's mind boggling how affordable housing is in WNY when compared to most of the rest of the country. I'm not sure I want to do Rochester again, though. I'm almost more tempted to give Buffalo a shot, though I've never lived there before. I suppose the two cities are comparable in a lot of ways, but at least Buffalo might be a bit more exciting since I've never lived there before. I'm not familiar with what areas surrounding Buffalo would be desirable to live in, though. What suburbs, what neighborhoods, etc. Anyway...good luck in your search. Hopefully the knowledgeable folks here can give you some valuable insight.

I hope Daboll says "***** it, if we're going down, we're going down swinging" and empties the bag of tricks. I want motions, jet sweeps, designed QB runs, trick plays, screens, you name it. We're NOT going to be able to run the ball against this team, so sling that sumbitch around the yard and play like it's the last game of your life. If we're gonna lose, can we at least make it fun? Can we at least make it look good? Like, I didn't mind the Tennessee loss so much. It was entertaining as hell and we went down like fighters. The Colts and Pats losses, well...not so much. MAKE BILLS FOOTBALL FUN AGAIN

Unless Cunningham can call plays on offense or catch the ball as a tight end, I'm not sure he'll fix what's ailing the Bills right now...

I haven't read through 45 pages here, so I'm sure this has been said already, but... The thing I can't get out of my head about Monday night is our refusal to use Josh Allen's legs as a weapon. Even if we just did it in the red zone, that would be something. We were moving the ball just fine between the 20s, but we would completely stall out in the red zone ,as we have all season long. To have 1st and goal at the six yard line, with an offense this talented and a quarterback with Allen's skills...and to NOT get into the end zone...is criminal. When the Bills are in the red zone, I'd love to see them bring an extra o-lineman on the field, some kind of jumbo package, and have Allen run the ball. I'm talking Tim Tebow Florida Gators type stuff. You can't tell me that if we had run Allen four straight times from the six, he wouldn't have punched the ball in. Put differently, ask yourself this: If Belichick had a quarterback with Allen's skillset on his roster on Monday night, what would HE have done in the red zone? Right. Exactly. Lastly, I'll just say that the "Bills can't stop the run!" narrative I see being pushed in the media as the reason for the lost is hogwash. The Pats piled up rushing yards, yes, but it took them 46 carries. Take away the one long run by Harris and the Bills held the Pats to 3.5 yards per carry, 2 for 12 on 3rd downs, and 14 points. This loss is on the offense, point blank period.

Monday night sucked. The past 8 or so weeks of up-and-down play have sucked. The team has issues, which we can all clearly see. Even with all of that having been said....the overreaction, exaggeration, and hyperbole on these forums is predictably comical right now.

Bills will lose to the Bucs, drop to 7-6, and kill off any remaining hope that fans or analysts have of them recovering. They'll then proceed to win all four remaining games after that and make the playoffs at 11-6. I know, I'm a crazy homer, we don't have a shot in hell, blah blah blah. 11-6 and playoffs. It's gonna happen!

I hear ya, and I'm generally in the "history doesn't matter, each game and season and situation is unique, who the heck knows?" camp, BUT... I DO think something like looking at a particular coach's success against opposing rookie quarterbacks is instructional. McDermott and Frazier have demonstrated with significant consistency that they're good against opposing rookie QBs, and in football, if your quarterback doesn't play well, your chance at victory diminish considerably.

The two interesting stats I've seen come up today that have me encouraged (I know they've already been posted here, but I'm just mentioning that both are interesting and give me hope): - Belichick's Pats are 0-6 post-Brady when going up against divisional opponents who are 3 games over .500 or more. - McDermott's Bills are 7-2 against rookie QBs, and have never allowed one to throw for more than one touchdown against them Here's hoping both stats/trends continue tonight.

I'm glad. All teams were obviously hamstrung to some degree by the COVID year's impact on the cap, but....I feel the Bills, with where they were in their build and their "championship window", were particularly negatively affected. Beane is a careful and meticulous planner, and I think this past offseason SHOULD have been the "cherry on top" free agency period, where they were able to bring in a few high end pieces to put them over the top. Instead, due to the unexpectedly lower cap, all they could afford to do was bring back their own and maintain the status quo. We are potentially seeing the results of that inability to bring in a few more pieces play out right now, where we are 7-4 but could, with a few more reinforcements, have been 9-2. Alas, what's done is done. I'm glad things are normalizing, cap-wise.

GAMEDAY IN ORCHARD PARK!!!

I haven't read through this thread, but... They absolutely SHOULD release him. What he did is a federal offense. Aside from that, he put everyone with whom he came in contact -- including his head coach who has twice survived cancer -- at unnecessary and unfair risk. If he were a marginal player, he would have been released already. Because he's so productive and important to the offense, and probably because of his relationship with Brady, they're probably gonna end up keeping him around. His importance to the efforts to win another Lombardi will trump justice and decency in this instance, I fear.

From their website https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7: Our Methodology EdjSports is widely acclaimed for its in-game risk management analysis and proprietary Game-Winning Chance (GWC) metric used by NFL teams and media. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game and is generated from the proprietary EdjFootball simulation model. EdjSports is creating the industry standard for head coach rankings by allocating its GWC to coaching decisions. About the EdjFootball model Built on 20+ years of historical NFL play-by-play and statistical data, the EdjFootball model is a fully customizable simulation engine. It accounts for each team’s strengths and weaknesses on offense, defense, and special teams. Model inputs include game state (score, timeouts, quarter, clock, down and distance, and field position), venue characteristics (indoor, outdoor, grass, turf, elevation), second half kickoff team, key injuries and Football Outsiders DVOA. Each week the model evaluates team performances and adjusts team strengths and weakness accordingly. As a result of these analyses, over the course of a season the EdjFootball model simulates over 3 billion games to conclusion. About the EdjSports Coach Rankings EdjSports analyzes every coaching decision during the course of a season. The EdjFootball model enables an in-depth examination of all critical calls (4th downs, PATs, and kickoffs), in terms of the amount of GWC at stake. The coach’s play-calling choices (run, pass, field goal, punt) are assessed at the point of decision (pre-snap) and rated with respect to their impact on winning the game. As a result of this process all play calling decisions can be objectively classified as either optimal decisions (correct calls) or suboptimal decisions (errors). The EdjSports Coach Rankings are based on this methodology and consist of two main components that result in the overall ranking. Edj Power Indexes (EPI) Ranking This is a cumulative ranking of the Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) including Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush. This ranking is a reflection of how teams performed in every situation during the season. Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Ranking This ranking is based on an analysis of offensive play calling on 4th downs and compares teams in terms of GWC lost or gained, on a normalized basis so that all teams are given the same test. Additionally, the CCI rankings are adjusted to account for the frequency and situational nature of critical calls to allow for fair comparisons of all 32 teams. EdjSports Coach Ranking This ranking is a weighted average of the Edj Power Indexes (EPI) and Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Rankings that provides a more comprehensive assessment of coaching strengths and weaknesses.

The way I remember it, the Dolphins were hot on the Bills' trail for the AFC East lead when the Bills played the Pats on Monday Night Football. While the stakes certainly weren't as high as they are this season in such a direct way, the game DID matter.

I think this team knows how important this game is. I think McDermott's been in their ear all week long about beating "the 1st place Patriots". I think they'll want to play really hard for Tre. I think the crowd is gonna be absolutely bonkers. I think the Bills defense will give Mac Jones fits. I think the Pats defense will give Josh Allen fits. I think the weather will impact the game. I think whoever commits more turnovers loses the game. I think the Bills and Pats split their series this year, the Bills ultimately go 4-2 in their remaining six games and make the playoffs. I have no idea who wins the division or gets the one seed. The AFC playoff race is as tight as I can ever remember it being.

"He can't beat his mentor, Andy Reid!". He beat Andy Reid. "He can't beat good teams!". He beat good teams, multiple times. "He can't win primetime games in a national showcase!". He won primetime games, multiple times. "He can't win playoff games!". He won playoff games. "He can't beat Bill Belichick!". He beat Bill Belichick, twice. I guess the last two dragons left to slay are Belichick in a "meaningful" game and the Super Bowl. So far, he's done pretty well at slaying the dragons placed before him.

Yeah. No need to get bowled over by the wind reports...this weather should be a breeze.

I was reading Peter King's FMIA column this morning (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/06/ravens-steelers-nfl-week-13-fmia-peter-king/) and came across this: "The top and bottom-rated coaches in the league through 12 weeks in the EdjSports Head Coach Rankings say something about the meaning of coaches in the game. The rankings measure every coaching decision through a series of metrics including fourth-down calls and play-calling choices (judged pre-snap, not after the result). Here are the rankings and explanation of the parameters. Top five 1. Brandon Staley 2. Matt LaFleur 3. Kliff Kingsbury 4. Sean McDermott 5. Frank Reich Bottom five 28. Pete Carroll 29. Dan Campbell 30. Joe Judge 31. Robert Saleh 32. Mike Tomlin Team records through 12 weeks of the top five coaches: 37-20. Bottom five: 15-38-2." I thought that was pretty interesting, and encouraging, particularly because McDermott sometimes catches a lot of flak around these parts for his gameday decision making. Personally, I feel that it's gotten better and better in each year as a head coach. Every now and then, he reverts back to conservative tendencies, but by and large, he's aggressive, smart, and clearly relies on his analytics team on gamedays. For those curious how these rankings are put together, Below is the link to the actual EdjSports Head Coach Rankings. Given that the combined record of their top five coaches is impressive, while the combined record of their bottom five coaches is abysmal, I'd argue that perhaps they have a decent set of rankings. https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7

I seem to remember the wintry weather of Buffalo historically being seen as an ADVANTAGE -- or at least not a disadvantage -- for the Bills. I remember great players from opposing teams in the days of yore talking about how intimidating it was to go play in Orchard Park in December or January. Now, if you go on Bills Twitter (or talk to many members of this forum), winter weather is this horrible, awful, no-good thing that should hands down be prompting the Bills to build a dome stadium. From the perspective of enjoying the game live as a spectator, I kind of get it -- I mean, watching football outdoors in the elements is nothing new, and people have been doing it, and loving it, for years, but okay...I get it. Having numb extremities is no fun. From the perspective of griping about how it affects the team's performance...I don't get it quite so much. If the answer is "well, tough, hard nosed teams that are good at running the football have the advantage in cold weather!", then that sounds like a failure in team building rather than justification for a dome. Knowing where they play home games, you'd think the Bills would prioritize running the ball and stopping the run and being a tough, hard nosed football team. If the reasoning is "so that our star QB can thrive!", I ask "how the hell did Brady, Favre, Elway, Bradshaw, Unitas, Starr, and Graham have Hall of Fame careers playing their home games in outdoor, cold weather stadiums?! How come Peyton Manning -- who played most of his career in a dome -- had his best season ever in the elements of Mile High?" Alas, another week of "THIS IS WHY WE SHOULD BUILD A DOME!!!" talk in the books.

Wait....so you're telling me that I'm wrong, you're right, and you knew it would be this way all along? I'm shocked. Shocked I say. I simply can't BELIEVE that you two happened to know better, and now you're here to tell us you were right. Can't believe it.

Fair. And don't get me wrong, what little I HAVE seen this week has seemed dramatically pro Pats and anti Bills, but... If I'm an unbiased fan or media person looking at this game -- if I don't know either team intimately and I'm just going on gut feel based on what each team has shown this season -- I'd lean Pats, too. They've won six straight, have looked mostly lights out on defense, take the ball away a lot, and prior to last year, they owned the Bills for two decades. Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 in their last six with losses to the lowly Jags and a SLAUGHTER at the hands of the Colts, are turning the ball over a bunch, and just lost their best defensive player for the year. I happen to think there's a good chance the Bills win this game, and there are a lot more variables under the surface than the cliff's notes I just provided above, but...taking a quick glance at this game, I sort of get why everyone is picking the Pats. I think what's really behind a lot of the angst from Bills fans is that we expected the Pats to be bad for a few years. We expected to own the division for a while. Instead, the Pats appear to be right back to their winning ways, have a quarterback who is legitimately playing well, and it has all of us collectively shaking our heads in astonishment and asking what we have done to anger the football gods.