Logic

Love it. Then again, this is my ACTUAL tree topper:

I'll say the same thing in this thread I said in the last "AFC East moving forward" thread: Jets and Dolphins have bad ownership. The Jets currently have Mike Tenenbaum and the 33rd team leading their GM search. Like...are you kidding me?! The Dolphins have tethered themselves to a QB and coach who I don't believe will ever have what it takes to consistently win the division. They have poor team culture and they're soft. The Patriots at least have good (albeit aging) ownership and a promising young quarterback. Things can change quickly when you find a quarterback. So of the other teams in the division, I'd tend to believe the Patriots currently have the best chance of fielding a good team moving forward, provided that Maye is the guy and that they continue to build around him. They need a BIG TIME talent infusion. The Jets and The Dolphins will continue not to scare me one bit. As others already said, and I will echo: As long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, they will continue to be the team to beat in the AFC East for the forseeable future.

I think part of what people underestimate about the Bills offense, and what people don't fear about it, is that it IS unusual. It doesn't have an exciting, signature, fancy, innovative scheme to hang its hat on. It doesn't wow you with exotic motions and advanced passing concepts. It's not a dazzling, bomb-it-down-field passing offense or a Greg Roman style exotic/dominant running offense. What it IS is malleable and effective. The first thing the Bills want to do is trot out two tight ends or a 6th offensive lineman and run the ball down your throat. If you sell out to stop that, they'll hit you with play-action chunk plays. If you stop all of THAT and force them to spread it out, they're willing. If you wanna operate our of a deep shell, they'll dink and dunk you to death. If you wanna throw exotic blitzes at them, they'll hit WR screens to Shakir all day. No matter what you want to do, Joe Brady is gonna diagnose it and give Josh Allen some "easy button" answers, and the Bills are gonna methodically move the ball and score more often than not. You're gonna see either a touchdown celebration or a Tyler Bass field goal much more often than you're gonna see a Sam Martin punt. Then all of a sudden, you're gonna look up at the scoreboard and see that the Bills hung 30 on you. "malleable and methodically effective" doesn't scare people. 6 o-lineman and running Duo again and again doesn't grab headlines. But for all the glitz and glamour it lacks, the Bills offense just continues to attack you in whatever way you've left yourself susceptible to, and to the tune of lots of points and lots of wins. Meet the boring but deadly 2024 Buffalo Bills offense.

I like Ray Davis a lot. His vision, contact balance, and north-south running without much dancing are impressive. I continue to operate under the belief -- and I know I'm in the minority here -- that Ray Davis should eventually become the 1B to Cook's 1A, or vice versa. Specifically, I'd like to see the two of them used basically EXACTLY how the Lions use Montgomery and Gibbs. I think Davis an do what Montgomery does, and I think Cook can do what Gibbs does. For those saying that would take the ball out of Cook's hands too much, I disagree. Jahmyr Gibbs, despite ceding serious playing time to Montgomery, has 1016 rushing yards and 10 TDs, plus 316 receiving yards and 1 TD, and he still has five games left to play. I think letting Davis be more of a 1st and 2nd down banger, and/or alternating drives with Cook, will keep Cook fresh and increase his longevity. I also think that Ray Davis has been too impressive in the looks he's gotten to continue to get as few as he does. And to the point of this thread: I'll take Davis over Allen, thank you. He doesn't wow you as much coming off the bus, but he's silky smooth and has looked like a seasoned vet from day 1 (probably because he's 37 years old)

I have to admit: I didn't see this coming. The Bills -- the team with the All-World quarterback with a bazooka for an arm -- seem to operate best offensively with 6 o-linemen, a tight end, two receivers, and a running back on the field. I don't have the stats in front of me that compare their effectiveness with 6 OL vs other groupings, but it certainly seems to be one of their most effective tactics. Not the spread, not the Air Raid, not 10 or 11 personnel, not even 12 personnel. A jumbo set. The Bills offense seems to operate best out of a jumbo set. They've been using it for a few seasons now, here and there. This season, under Brady, they seem to be employing it most often and most effectively. We saw it on Sunday against the 49ers, where they lined up with 6 OL and ran Duo over and over and over again. Who could have foreseen this being such an effective tactic for the Bills? Who could have foreseen Alec Anderson playing such a crucial role in the offense? Why don't more teams do this? It seems to give such a clear advantage in the run game, and then even when you run play-action off of it, the 6th lineman gives the QB extra time to find a receiver. It seems so obvious, and yet, it is certainly not common across the NFL to operate from this set as often as the Bills do. Anyway...for the rest of the season, when you see a 6th o-lineman trot out onto the field, it's fairly likely that a positive play is about to happen for the Bills offense.

Those who haven't listened to Dion Dawkins' answer about what is different about this year's team in its entirety should really do so. It is IMMENSELY interesting, to say the least. Sure seems like those of us who observed that Josh Allen looked the most miserable he has ever looked last year were onto something. Conversely, those observing that he looks as happy as he has ever looked this year are also on to something. As the QB goes, so goes the team. Things are good in Josh land right now (though we can all only guess at what was going wrong last year and what's better this year), and thus, things are going well for the Buffalo Bills. At least, that's the way Dion tells it.

Agreed. The Bills have the 6th ranked scoring defense in the league. Over the past 3 games, they've given up an average of 17 points per game. I don't think McDermott and Babich will be eager to swap out one of the two starters at safety for a guy who hasn't played football in a year. If the safety play starts to decline or injures strike? Sure. Otherwise, I think some people are letting what they WANT to see happen cloud their judgement in terms of what is actually LIKELY to happen.

We'll check back in a few weeks.

So when asked his expectations for Hyde, McDermott replied "very little. This isn't an indictment on how we feel about Hamlin, Rapp, Bishop, or Lewis". He also said he expects Hamlin and Rapp to remain starters. Obviously, words can be empty sometimes. But McDermott has proven himself to be a pretty honest guy over the years, whose words you can usually take at face value. Contrary to what some may want, it really DOES appear as though Hyde is here to be a leader and player/coach in the meeting room and locker room, to get one last chance at a ring, and to operate as a "break glass in case of emergency" option. Barring major regression in level of play or injury from Hamlin or Rapp, I do not expect to see Hyde lining up at safety for the Bills defense.

Not sure I agree. Our recent history of late season veteran practice squad additions (Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette, etc) doesn't suggest to me that his being elevating and taking away a starter's spot is imminent. IF Hamlin starts struggling over the next few weeks (and I don't mean playing at the level he's been playing at recently, I mean ACTUALLY struggling), then I can see them elevating Hyde and starting him. Ditto if there's an injury. Otherwise? I don't expect McDermott to break up the starting safety duo. Just my opinion.

I get your point, but... One thing I've heard over and over and over again from pro football players and coaches alike is that there's "in shape" and then there's "in football shape", and they are not the same. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the physical fitness aspect is that big a part of all this. I think if he joined the team, say, tomorrow, then 2-3 weeks of practicing with the team and spending time in the training room would be perfectly sufficient. Still, I think it's important to point out that the level of physical fitness one can attain by working out regularly at home is different than being in "football shape", as I understand it.

I think this is a pretty jaw-dropping statistic. I'd love to know who people think would walk through the door and be an upgrade over this...

Yes, my opinion has changed. Last year, I advocated for his firing, because I felt that the Bills needed a fresh start without all the psychological baggage. I also felt that McDermott simply was never gonna change his stripes as a coach, and that what he lacked couldn't be fixed. However, ever since the Dunne article last year, I feel that McDermott has evolved as a coach. He has gotten more and more aggressive (on 4th downs, end of half situations, TDs vs FGs, etc), has loosened up at times, has brought in fresh coordinators, has empowered and encouraged Josh Allen to take more leadership. It's hard to see what he's done this year, with this roster, and not conclude that he's doing a masterful coaching job. It's also hard not to conclude that he has engaged in some necessary self-reflection and has set out to improve in areas in which he lacked. As I stated here in another thread recently, it seems the Bills have gotten the fresh start I was pining after simply by changing out coordinators and position coaches and by jettisoning a bunch of older players and infusing the roster with youth. It seems that bringing in a new head coach was not necessary on that front. This FEELS like a new team to me. A breath of fresh air. As it has always been with McDermott, the main point of importance will be postseason performance. If the Bills defense once again turns into swiss cheese, if the decision making gets more conservative, if McDermott tightens up in big moments or has brain farts that cause a playoff exit...then yeah, we'll be right back to square one with Bills fans wondering if McDermott is the guy to get the job done. We all KNOW he can coach this team to 11+ wins and a division title every year. It's all about "can he win a championship, or is he Marty Schottenheimer?". The book is still out on that one. So, its interesting and a valuable discussion to ask this question now. But depending what happens this January/February, you're likely to get a whole different set of answers if you ask after the postseason.

There have been several Bills analysts in the Twitter blog-o-sphere dropping hints the past day or two about Micah Hyde's imminent return. No one has provided specific details yet. Everyone is being vague and just posting GIFs and hush-hush "don't be surprised" type comments. I'm curious to know everyone's position on this possibility. Me? I tend to think that if he's coming back to join the practice squad, provide veteran leadership, depth if needed, and be along for a potential run to a Lombardi trophy, then great. If the idea is that he's going to come in and usurp one of the starters or take up a valuable roster spot, I'm not so sure. The Rapp-Hamlin thing has been working well, and even if they DO want to try someone else out at safety, I'd rather see Cole Bishop or Lewis Cine get those reps. I'm fine with Hyde returning and providing some intangible locker room and leadership spark, but after this much time sitting at home, it's hard to imagine him coming in and contributing in a major way.

That was the most FUN Mic'd up I've ever seen. Dawkins is like a big kid out there. What a character. How many teams can say that one of the biggest characters and goofballs on their squad is their left tackle? And a really good, Pro Bowl caliber left tackle to boot. The vibes around this team are immaculate right now. Everyone's having fun. Love it.

With regard to stopping the run, the key difference between the SF game and the Rams game is this: The Bills felt comfortable bringing safeties down into the box and selling out to stop the run because they didn't trust injured Brock Purdy in a snowstorm to be able to push the ball downfield in the passing game. They weren't scared of Juaun Jennings or Deebo Samuel. On the other hand, if they try to sell out to stop the run against the Rams, healthy Matthew Stafford in a dome has a much better chance of successfully getting the ball downfield to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I expect the Bills to try to stay in their nickel defense and limit the big play (their usual defensive preference), which will necessarily concede a lot of rushing yardage to Kyren Williams and the Rams offense. At the end of the day, though, I don't expect that it will correlate to enough points to beat the Bills. Still, the next two weeks -- LA and Detroit -- will be enormous tests for the Bills' run defense, any way you slice it.

While I, like you two, am unable to pinpoint exactly what the problem is, one thing seems clear to me: The offense looks more effective when Dawson Knox is TE1 than when Kincaid is TE1. The two main areas in which Knox is currently superior to Kincaid -- blocking and downfield ability -- are two things that really help our offense as currently constructed. We have short area YAC guys already in Shakir, Samuel, and Cook. A big-bodied threat down the seam and a guy that helps more in the running game seems more valuable at this point in time than what Kincaid offers. Here's hoping Brady figures out how to effectively deploy BOTH once Kincaid returns. But in the meantime, I'm fine with seeing more Knox and less Kincaid.

I think two things are simultaneously true: 1. Al-Shaiir has a history of making dirty plays, and was justifiably suspended because of his latest one. 2. All the extracurricular talk about him being a "thug", needing to be behind bars, or any discussion whatsoever of his last name, his race, Hamas, etc, is out of hand, unnecessary, and -- in many cases -- reeks of thinly veiled xenophobia. The guy makes dirty and sometimes dangerous football plays. That's it. No need to make it about anything other than that.

Good. The NFL said that part of the reasoning for the length of his suspension is his history of dirty play. Here's a compilation of some his dirty plays from the past. He's a dirty player, and his "apology letter" showed a complete lack of contrition and ownership of the fact that he did anything wrong. His suspension was justified.

The Rams Defense allows 24.2 points per game, ranked 21st in the NFL. The Rams Offense scores 21.2 points per game, ranked 20th in the NFL. The Bills Defense allows 18.7 points per game, ranked 6th in the NFL. The Bills Offense scores 29.6 points per game, ranked 2nd in the NFL. The Rams boast a season long point differential of -36 The Bills boast a season long point differential of +131 Every metric favors Buffalo. The Rams' creative and multiple running game could give the Bills fits and keep the Rams in the game. Their defensive line could give Buffalo's OL problems. HOWEVER...at the end of the day, the Bills are the better team and have the better quarterback. Give me Josh Allen in a dome all day long. Rams score a late garbage time touchdown to make this one look closer than it is. Bills 29 Rams 20

I probably missed the resolution of a previous discussion of this member's whereabouts, but...what ever happened to @Hapless Bills Fan? I was digging through an old draft night thread, and she made some nice posts in it, and it reminded me what a huge contribution she made to this forum. What did I miss? Is she okay?

Isaac Guerendo: League winning fantasy football waiver pickup.

This. Prior to the season, I was very discouraged at the notion that Mack Hollins would be counted on as the Bills' WR2. Like Gabe Davis before him, he boasts a very specific skillset which is, in my opinion, not suited to be a top two receiver on an NFL offense. His career stats bear out this notion. However, like Gabe Davis before him, he's well-suited to be a WR4. A guy who blocks his ass off, plays special teams, and can make the occasional clutch play on offense while opposing defenders are keying in on other guys. In THAT role, he has been excellent. Hollins is a quintessential "glue guy". Not a star and never will be, but you need guys like him on your football team. Selfless guys, work ethic guys, character guys, dirty work guys. I'm glad that Mack Hollins is a Buffalo Bill. Easy guy to root for.

There's an episode of Parks and Recreation featuring a shock jock radio show. The radio show is co-hosted by two guys: Crazy Ira and The Douche. It's a gross, tacky, un-funny caricature of a radio show, with dumb sound effects, sophomoric humor, and moronic conversation. I bring this up because, well...that's what Schopp and the Bulldog is. It's outdated, irrelevant, sophomoric, grade school level "analysis" of football. In this day and age, with so much GOOD, insightful, intelligent, meaningful post-game analysis and discussion and dissection readily and freely available, it is an ongoing wonder to me why ANYONE would purposely subject themselves to such utter garbage. "...other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

Same. I just posted this in the post-game thread, but I'll copy and paste it here, because I think it applies to this conversation specifically: Aside from the fact that McDermott seems to be in harmony with his current coordinators (which I agree with) and seems freed up to be more of a CEO rather than having to micro-manage (which also helps the team in a big way), I also think there's definitely something to the "scars"/fresh start argument. That is: Having all these new/young players on the team -- and having six "heart and soul" captains gone -- has removed a lot of the scar tissue that had built up on this team and, with it, a lot of the "tightness" and weight. The last time we saw the team look this good and the vibes around the team be this good was 2020, which incidentally was the last time this team played free and had fun without the crushing weight of expectation. From 2021 onward, the expectations became greater, the painful losses in big moments mounted, and the collective weight on everyone's shoulders just increased exponentially. It culminated in the 2023 season, where Joe Brady had to actually TELL the players "hey...I want you to celebrate and smile and have some fun out there" once he was hired as OC. He had to try to COACH them into enjoying themselves. Now, that "version" of the Bills is gone. A lot of the players that went through those experiences are gone. And along with the exodus of those veterans, expectations were comparatively low for the Bills coming into this season. In starting a new chapter, in having a fresh start, in playing free, and being free of the weight of the world, I think this team is once again having fun and bonding, and building their own identity and legacy, somewhat separate from those of the teams that preceded them. One of the reasons I argued for McDermott to be fired last year was that I felt a fresh psychological start was needed, and I thought that hiring a new head man was the only way to accomplish that. Thankfully, it appears that was not necessary. A few new coordinators and position coaches, a turning of the page and infusion of youth on the roster, and a bunch of preseason "this'll be the worst year of the Josh Allen era" prognostications from the talking heads, and here we are: the team is having fun, playing loose, exceeding expectations, and building something NEW. You love to see it.