oldmanfan

Watch last game. Three at least. Was even worse when Benjamin was short arming everything. The difference between you and I is one of objectivity. I freely acknowledge Allen has a ways to go. He needs to continue working on his shorter passes as an example. But I also see the positives, and I understand the variables that account for this completion percentage stuff. You on the other hand made up your mind the day he was drafted he would not be good, and you either twist data to reach a preconceived conclusion or even worse deliberately misuse things to do the same. Your take on the throw to Clay over the middle Sunday was the most classic of many examples. Hit a guy in the hands in stride but yet you cling to the bizarre notion that somehow Allen was at fault. I mention this a lot but you wanted to trade an entire draft for Jamie's Winston. I think that calls into serious question your opinion on NFL quarterbacking in general. And with Allen it is exacerbated by your desire to be right vs. the desire to have a long term answer for QB. Allen is a rookie with8 games under his belt. He is nowhere near a finished product. Quit treating him like he is.

Sunday the drops would put him at 60%. I already showed you the math earlier this week , but you prefer to think your supposed understanding of QB play trumps the actual numbers.

You are being deliberately obtuse now. Of course he missed some throws. I outlined the ones I thought he missed earlier. You don't understand the difference between ooor throws and poor decisions. It's a simple concept. Why do you ignore that it may happen more frequently with a poorer receiver corps?

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making. Apples and oranges. The decision to make the throw was dumb. Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate. Accurate but stupid. Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route. Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride. But a poor decision. This isn't that hard to figure out. As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands. If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy. Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field. They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place. Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

No it's not. He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed. But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting. He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

To say he's a utter failure at passing is stupid and you know it.

I will focus on the ones you thought were bad: 1. diMarco at 2:05 first quarter. Allen was running for his life and tried to set up the screen. Had to throw it over the rushing lineman and thus was a bit high. 2. Clay at 5:41 second quarter: Again a bit high, but if Clay is not held he can go up and get it. Led it away from the defender as he should. 3. The pick: Dumb throw, and he knows it. But accurate, threw it right where he wanted to, again as he's running for his life. 4. McKenzie at 1:27 second quarter. Was it to McKenzie or Foster? Not a great throw. 5. Thompson at 1:12. Maybe his biggest miss of the day. If he leads Thompson correctly there he has open field ahead 6. Third quarter throwaway at 13:34. Was dumping the ball to an open spot; better to throw it out of bounds 7. Third quarter to Ivory at 5:35: When you hit the guy right in the hands not a terrible throw. I think everyone gets that these dump offs are an area for improvement 8. 4th quarter 6:16 to Foster: I see that as an attempt at a back shoulder throw 9. 2:41 to Jones: ball was right on target, but it was late because again he was running for his life. 10. 1:11 to McKensie: Not horrible, a little off 12. Last pick: Trying to make a play downfield with no timeouts left. Not worried about that one. So I see maybe 3-4 balls that really weren't targeted well. I also saw a lot of down field throws that were right on guys and extremely precise. He needs to work on the dump off type throws, but the kind of talent he shows being able to drive the ball downfield with precision will be a real asset. It will allow him to fit the ball into tighter windows than other guys. Now, do we agree about him having a problem with accuracy? No we don't. Because as I pointed out earlier this week you confuse accuracy with two other terms: precision and consistency. Accuracy vs. precision: The classic example is throwing darts at a dart board. Say you consistently are right around the bull's eye, but don't hit it. That means you are accurate, but not precise. Now let's say you're aiming at the bull's eye, but you cluster ten darts two inches to the right of the bull's eye; all right on top of each other. You are precise, but you are not accurate. Allen is accurate on some of the throws above, but he was not precise. He had it n the catch radius of guys, but could use more precision. Many Qbs are like that, but they have WRs that can adjust and make the play anyway. Allen can be more precise to be sure, most Qbs can, but his receivers could also be helping him out more. Consistency is being able to make the same pass to a same target with reproducible precision. Allen like many young QBs will be working on that. Finally, your last statement belies the intent of your post. While I appreciate the effort, when you ask whether one can win with a QB that makes "so many bad throws", when it is not clear that he either did so, or that other Qbs in the league would be less so, it is clear you have an agenda. What you should do is map out some of the younger guys in the league play by play and see how things compare. I think what you'll find is that this 20% number you have thrown out there as a yardstick with no actual data to back it up might be closer to the norm (and not that I agree that Allen was at 20%, but you get the idea).

I appreciate the effort. Just went back through myself and count 5 that were way off. Couple were when he was running for his life and most QBs lose precision under such circumstance. I think we all recognize he needs to develop more touch on shorter routes, which is where most of his misses were. It would be nice if the critics of the kid also had the decency to recognize that with his arm he can and has made throws that very few other guys can make. It would also be nice if people stopped saying he can never be an accurate QB, never lead them to a championship etc. because that is nonsense. No one knows that right now after the kid has played 8 games.

Siran Neal?

One poor flare pass. And of course the picks

Yes it was a bad play and a bad throw. Yes he has to learn from it. No it does not mean he doesn't listen to his coaches. That is just hysteria on your part. So when Goff throws a pick it's receivers, but when Allen does it's on him. OK, right. And to spend a second on your accuracy stuff. To say he has shown no improvement is silly. You like so many others confuse completion percentage with accuracy. I have posted this elsewhere but will do so here so you can learn. Let' say a passer throws 36 passes as Allen did yesterday, and completes 18. That is a 50% completion rate, and to you and others that is somehow construed as the sky is falling, oh my God he's s inaccurate. Now here's where doing some simple math will help you. Multiply 36 x 0.6 (or 60% completion rate). That gives you an answer of 21. Or if he completes three more passes then he hits this magical 60% completion percentage that so many around here are wedded to as some sort of minimal Holy Nirvana of adequacy. Now then: as they say let's go to the tape. First half hits Clay right in the hands for what should have been a big gain. What does Clay do? Drops the ball. Also first half: throws a very shot screen to Shady, who promptly drops the ball (which was probably OK since the play would have been blown up). Then I believe second half, drills the ball right into Zay's chest, and what does Zay do? Drops the ball. Those three catches are made, all of which were accurate passes hitting guys right in the hands, and presto, we have a completion percentage you want. And that doesn't even account for the throwaways when his WRs don't get separation or his O line acts like a sieve. So let's just set this accuracy thing aside once and for all: yes he can improve on things like his shorter routes and yes he can develop more touch, but he is not wildly inaccurate with the ball. Enough already. Young QBs need to develop and Allen is doing so.

Main reason? The defense didn't stop them when it counted. Second, special teams were an abomination. Third, the offense and the young QB made mistakes.

True. Takes a while for many linemen to get it. Hope he's one of them.

This is unadulterated nonsense, and there is far too much of it on this board. He doesn't listen at all to his coaches? Crap. He made a bad play yesterday on that first pick, and now he does not listen to his coaches? You have seen no improvement in accuracy? Also crap. Watch the actual games and see how many times he hits guys right in the hands or the numbers only to see them drop the ball. By the way Goff hasn't looked good the last couple weeks. He threw a couple picks yesterday. Is he boneheaded? Is he not listening to McVey? Danrnold made the same type of throw and got picked yesterday. But he's not boneheaded, is he? No, to you he played better. Allen and Darnold are both young guys with things to learn. So are Goff and Trubiskey. But of course who do some Bills fans single out as the guy who can't cut it? Their own QB. Disgusting.

The second pick was trying to make a play in desperation mode. Should have thrown it outside. And a guy gets hit from behind and fumbles. Never see that in the NFL. So now we're going to predict the future on two passes vs. one?

Best rushing yards in the league at the QB positon. watch the game yesterday. What did he do? Took what the defenses gave him. When the MLB vacates the middle of the field he had huge running lanes and took them. That's called reading a defense. Do you see him turning his back to the D as he did against the Pack anymore? No. That's called learning. Again, objective folks with no agenda like yours have commented on his enhanced play since returning. But because your agenda is to see him fail that's of course erroneous. Because he throws one pick he has learned nothing. Go take a stats class and ask the professor if an N of 1 is sufficient data to back up such a ridiculous conclusion. He or she will laugh you out of their office.

Where is the proof he's learning? The games. where he takes what the D gives him in the running game. Where he goes through his progressions. Where anyone with a scintilla of objectivity can see he's making progress after coming back from injury.. But because he threw a pick yesterday, he hasn't learned anything according to you. Hasn't learned anything because of one pass. and I'm the one making excuses. He has to improve dramatically? So do his receivers. it would be instructive to see where his ranking would be if guys actually caught passes that hit them in the hands. You should listen to your three year old. He knows more about football than you do.

I am talking but accuracy, which people mistakenly conflate with completion percentage. People keep harping about him being inaccurate based on only having 50% completions. When your receivers keep dropping passes you put right in their hands on right on their numbers, that isn't the Qb being inaccurate. That is having receivers that can't catch. Let's also talk about the throw aways. My favorite Allen basher, pretend to know everything about QB play but actually knows little poster around here completely bashed Allen for his first pick. And I actually agree with that: he never should have thrown that ball back into the middle of the field and he needs to learn that lesson. But if he had throw it away as he should have? Then it affects his completion percentage and they harp all over that, forgetting that he would have made exactly the right play under the circumstances. I increasingly believe that, at least for some around here, the Bills will never have a successful QB. Not because the individual in question is unsuccessful , but because there are some who don't want a Bills QB to succeed. It is the only conclusion I can draw based on some of what I read around here.

You are ridiculous. Absolutely and totally ridiculous with an agenda that will not allow you to have any sense of rationality about the QB of the Buffalo Bills. Allen made a mistake throwing back across the field. He made that mistake against the Pack. And what does this mean to you? That he has learned nothing at all this year. What crap. What utter nonsense. What drivel. Anyone with any sense of objectivity can tell that after coming back from injury, Allen has done better at going through progressions, etc. But he has learned nothing to you, because you don't know what you're talking about. I stop here to remind you and all who read this, you are the guy who wanted to trade an entire draft to get the greatest QB of all time: Jameis Winston. You have no real ability to judge QB play in the NFL but continue to pretend you do. Yes, Allen's stats are lower. That might be because he has receivers that keep dropping the ball on hi, Again, take away the drops and throw aways and he's at the magical 60% completion that so many continue to harp on. And my math is of course factual as well. His stats might also be lower because he has taken run lanes defenses give him and use his legs to make plays. And the ratio of run to pass will likely change as the young QB with 8 starts to his name gains experience. But not to you of course, because it would upset your agenda.

You know, enough is enough. Allen is a rookie QB, and as such prone to the occasional dumb play, like the first pick he threw. That is a typical dumb rookie mistake and he needs to learn from that. But as for the rest? This accuracy garbage? He threw one short pass badly to a RB, and everyone harps on that. What about the perfect screen to Murphy the opening drive? Funny how that doesn't get mentioned. And then you have someone here who thinks he's a QB savant deliberately making things up about the throw to Clay over the middle where the guy once again drops a pass put right on him, and somehow makes that into it's Allen's fault. That is total BS. I honestly don't know what games some people watch around here. Watch the games, not just ours but others. Allen when given time in the pocket and/or making time by scrambling has had no problem hitting guys. But yet this accuracy thing gets brought up time and time again, presumably because he had a 50% completion percentage yesterday. He was 18/26. Now, how many throwaways did he have? Off the top of my head I counted 3. Now, how many flat out drops did he have? I can think of three right off the top of my head: the aforementioned one to Clay, a flip screen to Shady that he flat out dropped, and the throw to Jones where he drilled it right into his chest and he drops that. So if you take those into consideration his accuracy is fine and his completion percentage is 60%, the magic number for so many around here. And then when you scan around other games and see other QBs miss some throws, even veteran HOF types like Big Ben and Brees, the agenda of some becomes clear. That agenda? Some don't want the Bills or their young QB to succeed for whatever reason. People clamor for the Bills to finally draft a QB high, and they do. They get a kid - a KID - who has a lot to learn obviously, but also has skills that are rare in the league. But that's not enough. We have supposed supporters of the team that want to pick apart every single throw the kid makes as if a single throw will make all the difference in whether the kid makes it in the league. We have people making up things to support their preconceived notion that he won't be good, a notion they decided on even before the draft. Why there are some who don't want the kid or his team to succeed, I will never understand, unless you're a secret Fish or Jets or Pats fan.

Your idea does not take into account injuries which are a prime reason you have lower tier guys or scrubs called onto the field.

What you're asking for is pretty much what they had to start the season. Then Davis went nuts and Gaines got hurt. Your model does not take injuries or roster restrictions into account. Where is your evidence they put all their eggs into one CB? White is a star and on a rookie contract. Johnson looks like a really good slot and Wallace shows promise. How is what they are doing different that what you want?

Again, you can have your opinion but the video shows otherwise and several folks who have looked at it tell you the same thing. You refuse to accept it because you have this self aggrandizing image of yourself as a QB expert, and because you don't like Allen and would rather see him fail so you can talk about how you were right. It is clear to all. As clear as the fact that he hit Clay in stride on this pass and Clay would still be running if he could catch a football. oh, and the throw against the Texans was a bad throw. Not anything like the one today.

It is true the rule changes particularly on kickoffs diminishes really big plays. But I would be interested in your stats background. I have taken grad level stats and can tell you that the stats thrown around in football are commonly off base. Advanced multivariate analysis would be needed to properly analyze things given the multitude of factors that influence any single play