oldmanfan

If Barnwell had gone back and looked at his first couple games and then compared them to the last two his article would have, or should have, read differently. Allen is a work in progress, and some of what he says is valid. Like better decision making. But to say he's worse version than Taylor? Silly. Taylor's issue is he wouldn't try to let his receivers makes plays, and Allen's is that at times he's too aggressive. I said it when Taylor got traded and Allen started playing: the same people that were critical of Taylor for not taking chances and throwing the occasional pick will be the same ones criticizing Allen for taking a chance and throwing a pick. And here we are. It's also a bit silly to give Darnold a pass for his O line and not mention it with the Allen critique. It's also a bit silly to just critique and not mention some of the really good throws he's made like some to Foster. One last thing. Clay has to catch that pass. He gets two hands on it in the end zone, he has to catch that pass. Plus what ever happened to the diea of working back to your QB when he's in trouble?

It is unreasonable because you have to factor in a plethora of variables that affect the equation. Looking at the offense in Wyoming and thus far in Buffalo he does not have the simple little check downs and such that can inflate percentage completions, as just one variable. He has things to learn, like some more touch on passes as an example. Read what Hapless wrote and what I wrote; we are objective and realize he has things to learn, pluses and minuses. You on the other hand come out with statements such as he is an "utter failure" and then try to walk that back. You ask if I really think you'd be disappointed if Allen led them to a Super Bowl.. Sadly, I think that's quite possible. There are others on this site that I definitively think would be sad, and I hope that's not the case with you.

He is not a terrible passer. As I said before you are addicted to stats that don't tell an entire story. And you do so to fit your preconceived bias. People like you want to see him fail so you can brag on an Internet site about how smart you are. Refer back to a number of comments I've made about accuracy. You don't understand the meaning of the word.

Yes that would be right. You think rookie QBs should be finished products. They're not.

Agreed. I keep saying Allen has a ways to go. Has a lot to learn. But he has brought some excitement to WNY

If you were being objective you would realize there have been many times Allen has hung in the pocket and delivered a strike. As an example the 75 yard bomb to Foster. You don't see it because you don't want to see it. So spare me your objectivity nonsense.

You haven't seen him stay in the pocket and deliver the ball because you don't want to see it. For some odd reason it appears you do not want the Bills QB to be successful.

What can I tell you? You are slavishly devoted to stats that may or may not mean much. You say he's last in release time. You know why? Because he has an Oline that cannot protect him on anywhere near a regular basis and thus he scrambles around more trying to make a play. On the occasions where he gets protection, watch him. He sets up better in the pocket now than he did earlier in the year, he makes his reads, and has delivered the ball pretty accurately overall. Yes he misses a few, as do all young QBs. His TD/Int ratio? He has to know not to throw the ball back into the middle of the filed when scrambling, that accounts for a couple. And it would be great if his receivers would actually catch the ball when thrown to them. You fall into the trap so many fall into. You look at stats as a be all and end all and don't really think about all the variables that can go into said statistic. Again, I listed a bunch in another thread, but here's one more to think about. Who is actually doing the analysis? Do they know enough about football to make an intelligent assessment. Do they have an agenda against a player that skews their perspective? I'll give you an example we saw on this board this week, courtesy of the rober guy who clearly has an anti- Allen agenda. It involved the dropped pass by Clay over the middle. He claimed it was a bad throw by Allen, not a problem with Clay. He started out by erroneously talking about how Clay was running a post and how the ball should have been over his shoulder. He wasn't; he was slanting across the field. He then erroneously talked about how you knew it was a post because the ball hit him on the 39 and he stumbled on the 44 yard line. Not even close to being right; the ball hit him on the hands on the 42 and he fell between the 43 and 44 (again, because the pattern was a slant and not a post). The it was the ball was at his feet, and when several people pointed out the fallacy of that then he claimed it was below the waist. The reality, as indicated by many, was the ball was right out in front of him, waist high, nice accurate and precise throw, which Clay dropped, and then held his hands to his head as if to say How could I have dropped that ball? Now, that is one play. Imagine if you have guys who don't really know that much about what they're seeing doing that for every play around the league, and you start to get why I am not a huge fan of some of the stats thrown around. Allen is a work in progress. He has a lot to learn. So do all the young QBs. Allen needs to continue to have the game slow down for him, although one can see that it is starting. As the game slows down he should make quicker and better decisions with his throws. He needs to continue working on mechanics, especially on passes that require more touch than velocity. But based on his 8 games to date, he also brings some skills to the table that seem fairly unique. His arm will allow for more open routes downfield because he should be able to fit passes into tighter windows with his velocity. You pooh pooh his running but that is a nice weapon to have, and opens up the field for the passing game. He has the intangibles one looks for in a QB such as leadership and work ethic. His teammates believe in him. Does that all mean he's the QB for the next 15 years? Too early to tll, but my gut says yes. Could eb worng of course. But it won't be because he doesn't give it everything he has to be the guy. And it won't be because fans who have an agenda and say he's an utter failure as a thrower.

That's laughable. Stats lie all the time, because they are either used incorrectly or more often interpreted incorrectly. Here's an answer to your question. Barkley produced in one game first of all. And if you know anything about statistics, an N of 1 doesn't give you am leg to stand on. But why did he do so well against the Jets in that one game? Because the Jets D laid down, and because Barkley is a veteran QB that has been around the block more than Allen and knows more right now about reading defenses. So he had a good game. Not miles better than Allen, but a good game nevertheless. And history would show that a backup QB like Barkley may have good and bad games; put him in again and he may wet the bed. Your statement that Allen is an utter failure at passing the ball is even more laughable than your thoughts about stats. You are one of those dopes that hang on completion percentage as some Holy Grail of performance. Look up some of my posts elsewhere on the fallacy of using that as a sole arbiter of QB play if you want to learn something about stats. And then go back, watch some of Allen's throws. He does a fine job throwing the ball downfield, misses some as most especially young QBs do. But anyone with any sense of objectivity to them will tell you Allen can get the ball downfield pretty well for a rookie. Unless you have an agenda that doesn't allow you to see what is right in front of you. Which apparently you do.

It can't be # 4, can it? I think Dawkins is Ok although his play has slipped a bit, and Teller shows some potential. But they desperately need a C and another G, and a RT.

I have to assume they are going to make the O line a priority this off season. It will be interesting to see if that's their main focus in free agency, or if they go for a stud T or G day 1 or 2 of the draft. They have to know they need to protect their franchise QB.

If that's not the second decision in the offseason I'll be surprised. The first of course being Crossman.

It helped having Richie next to him last year

Glad to hear that. And regarding the stats you mention it's a prime reason I am skeptical of all these different QBR, etc, etc. methods. One will say a guy's good, one not. I just don't think they're very predictive of much.

I'm not interested in proving what other QBs do because I'm not the one trying to argue that Allen is so inaccurate. Look elsewhere on the site and you will see data indicating his passer rating the past couple games is quite good. Glad you don't think he can't improve. Now for a tough question: do you really want him to improve? I hope so. I do believe there are a select few around here that want him to fail so they can say I told you so on an Internet site.

I think it would be fine to have him lead the charge. But he asks us to name a player past or present that reps Buffalo more than him? Seriously? I can name a bunch starting with Paul MacGuire and Tom Sektak.

Could be. I don't want to argue over one play. As a rule I respect what you post.

I have a feeling we'll have 5 starters at new positions next year Dawkins to G, maybe Teller moving to the right side), being coached by a new O line coach. Beane and McD have to know they need to protect their potential franchise QB.

You are correct on the four options. One can certainly make a bad decision and then also be inaccurate when you throw the ball. Completion percentage is not an indicator of accuracy. Let me explain why, and why the simplification of statistical analysis leads people astray. Let's take the throw to Clay that you inadvertently omitted. He dropped a well thrown ball. Very accurate. Very precise. Now that turns into a negative on completion percentage and thus negatively skews the data even though it wasn't on Allen. But that's not the only thing you have to consider in trying to statistically analyze QBs. Here's just a few things you'd have to throw into an analysis that could skew your completion percentage data: Weather (lot of wind affects thing) Length of the throw- many college QBs have skewed data because they throw short patterns Quality of your WR corps Quality of defensive backs Offensive scheme How many balls are thrown away to avoid the rush And so on. To really evaluate completion percentages what a statistician would employ is multivariate analysis, and although I have a decent understanding of stats I am nowhere near good enough to figure out how you would set it up. So if we take the game Sunday, and take out the drops and the throwaways (because Allen deliberately wanted to throw incompletions in that case) his completion percentage is in the 60s. That's the mathematical reality, and why I discount that statistic. Now those who don't like Allen will just say that every QB throws balls away, and every QB has dropped passes. Ok, thenshow me the data. Pick another guy or two and see if it's true. Now to accuracy and precision. Ideally a QB is both. Those type guys are in Canton; they fit balls into very tight windows. Allen truly needs to work more on precision; his accuracy is not bad. True he was inaccurate on a couple like the throw to Thompson but most all his throws his receivers get their hands on the ball with opportunities to make a catch. That's accurate, but not as precise as desired. I suspect the next thing that will come up is that he can't improve accuracy. Wrong. That is mechanics, and mechanics can be improved by hard practice and repetition. Allen has shown he can be accurate, what he needs to do is improve his consistency. And that is possible with practice. You play golf? You get better with practice, right? Develop more touch and consistency? Or can your jumper in basketball improve? Yep. So can throwing a ball. I think the primary thing Allen and any young QB needs are: 1. Continued work on mechanics (and that would include working with your receivers constantly to make sure their routes are solid etc- a big reason why Payton and Brady are Payton and Brady) and 2. Getting the game to slow down so you make good reads and you get the ball delivered in time with consistency. What I like over the past couple games is I see Allen hanging in the picket making reads more than earlier in the year. And some of those reads are for him to run. Archuletta made an interesting comment the other day. On one of his long runs he talked about how Allen read the MLB and when he moved laterally Allen knew the middle of the field would be wide open for the run. So I think he'll seeing things more clearly and that's good. Is Allen the answer? I think so, but time will tell. He needs to continue to improve decision making, needs work on those touch passes. Those are all legitimate comments and I think Allen himself would agree. I think what drives me the craziest around here are the pronouncements, like yours, that he is inaccurate and can't improve, or he hasn't shown any improvement, or that he can't ever be an accurate QB. It is simply silly to try and make a definitive judgment like that on any player at any position, much less the most difficult one to play. What I do know right now is Allen brings a rather unique skill set, and when he steps on the field I get the feeling things will happen. And as a fan that's good for me right now.

And I do agree he needs to improve. Why don't you just agree he's a rookie and has shown some pretty good work and development?

No it's not. I agree I am not in Allen's head, but I think he saw a play to make, threw it where he wanted, but had no business throwing it there. The more illustrative would be the pick against the Fish where He tried to hit Benjamin but the DB undercut the route. It was not in any way inaccurate; he threw it right where he wanted to throw the ball. If the route isn't read by the DB the ball is right on target. But it was a bad read, a bad decision. I bring this difference up because you and others keep harping on his completion percentage as being akin to his accuracy, and they are not the same thing.

I reviewed every play last game, and did so with Houston. Listed the Houston ones earlier. Why do I have to use other's data?

I will give you that. If he was trying to throw it out of bounds and went inside then he was way off on accuracy. I just don't think you should confuse poor decision making with accuracy.

He threw it where he wanted to throw it. But he never should have decided to throw it to begin with. accuracy is not decision making, decision making is not accuracy. Too complex for you I guess. Where have I done that. I listed the drops this last game earlier in the thread and elsewhere.

I think we all agree he needs to develop more touch for some throws.