oldmanfan

I'm sorry but the ball was right at waist level and the guy gets both hands on it. If you're going to say based on that throw that Allen needs to be more accurate (and again people confuse accuracy with precision - that was an accurate throw) then there isn't a QB in the league that can be described as accurate (or more accurately- precise). Rather than say Allen has to adjust to poor receivers, maybe the solution is to have a TE that can make routine catches.

Of course it's speculation. That's what we do here. I ascribe to what my pee wee coach told me in 1963. You get yours hands on it, you should catch it. When A QB hits you in the hands there isn't much more he can do. The pass could have been maybe 6-12 inches more to the right. That's very accurate and pretty precise.

Old habits die hard. The Fish will always be the ones I want to beat most.

Accurate and fairly precise. That is a catch that is made 90% of the time, if not more, by NFL receivers.

Sorry but have to go Fish. I had to watch each loss in the 70's, so to me the Fish will always be the one I hate the most

Yep, I've posted this before. Allen is in the low precision/high accuracy picture on the bottom right. The vast majority of his throws are accurate; they give his receiver the chance to make the catch. But he could be more precise on his throws. Obviously one wants both high precision and high accuracy. That hopefully comes with time.

There is a difference between accuracy and precision. You like so many confuse the two.

Drops by definition means the receiver has the ball hit his hands. Is hitting guys in the hands bad placement?

As I said I applaud your effort to break down each throw and while I may not agree on each interpretation that is a much better way to approach things. I am not trolling by any means. But because I do have I think a better overall idea of statistics than some here I try to point out the errors many commit in using them. My intent is to be educational and if it comes across as confrontational that is not my intent.

I'm sorry you find it tiresome but you refuse to understand the difference between accuracy and precision. Some of the analysis on this will always be subjective; one person might say a pass is way off and another will say it was closer. But confusing accuracy with precision is an important distinction. It's not like Allen routinely misses guys by yards; he needs to work on his precision. i agree everyone is entitled to their opinion and applaud that you break down every pass; that is a much better way of going at analysis vs. just looking blindly at some stat. I do object to people misusing or overinflating stats to support an opinion though. That's my background as a scientist I suppose. I review tons of papers for journals and they commonly get rejected because of inappropriate stats or because of poor study design. I see a lot of that in these Allen threads.

Right. He's got a ways to go and lots to learn. I just get tired of folks trying to misuse data to fit their preconceived notion that he won't cut it. I think any objective analysis of the kid would say he's developing nicely at this point.

He's a 60% completion rate already. Just subtract out his throwaways.

The chart does not show the percentage of each QBs throws that were dropped. Mahomes for example has played 5 more games than Allen I believe. Yet another example around here of throwing out some random stat without a true understanding of its value (or non-value).

You're right, I shared this picture. And Allen fits the high accuracy/low precision. The vast majority of his throws are catchable balls, but could be more precise. In your own thread after the Lions game you could only point out two balls that were truly inaccurate. So you cite data indicating he's accurate but use it to say he's inaccurate. That is why you don't understand the term and why your posts can be discounted. Because you come into the analysis with a foregone conclusion and try to fit your data to that preconceived conclusion.

Great memories of him and his Electric Company mates.

It's too early to know about Rosen or Allen or any of these rookies. But here's my question: why do we insist on making comparisons? Going into the draft one could have made a case for any of the 5 guys drafted in the first round, and history tells us drafting a Qb round 1 gives you around a 50:50 shot at being right. So we took Allen. So far he looks like he might have the goods, but we'll see. If he winds up not being the guy, and say Rosen does, I won't be sitting here crucifying management because of the pick, nor would I crow over it if Allen succeeds and Rosen doesn't. Same with Mahomes; no one (if they're being honest) saw what was coming with him, many saw a kid coming out of a program that had not produced any solid NFL Qbs and with a lot of footwork issues. You take your shot, and you see what happens. You scout the best you can and make the best decision you can. And if GMs make more wrong decisions that right, they lose their jobs. No reason to continually beat the decisions to death IMHO.

Get Rosen some help and I think he'll be fine.

You act like a child. You're shown your wrong on something, then you take your ball and go home. Allen ahs the ball within the catch radius of receivers a lot more than that. You continue to not understand the slightest bit about stats. How many throwaways did he have? Tho

Another one who doesn't understand either physics or statistics. Thanks for playing.

The difference between accuracy and precision is an important distinction and affects critical things such as interpretation of laboratory tests and other critical medical data and in a less important area how NFL QBs perform. It is not a pretentious distinction; you call it that because you are clearl wrong on this and you can't stand being called wrong. So you start your snarky crap; did it on the BBMB and do it hear. Try learning something for a change. You should try learning something as well. Allen needs to improve precision, he is pretty accurate.

By indicating accuracy and precision are the same you show your ignorance of statistical concepts. They are different and I will use the dartboard analogy yet again. If you want to hit the bulls eye and throw say 10 darts, if each missed by an inch but surround the bulls eye you are accurate but not precise. If you throw the same The and they hit the exact same point, but that point is three inches away from the target you are precise but not accurate. This is a basic tenet of statistics. QBs throwing passes strive to have both high accuracy and precision. Allen is accurate in that his passes are around his receivers by and large and allow them the opportunity to make a catch. He needs to work on improving precision while also being accurate. And that should come as he gains more experience, makes better reads, and such. We are seeing a young QB making progress his first year. No reason to think he won't continue that especially if he is given more talent around him.

You don't understand statistics. It's very clear from your posts. Most people don't. You're just another guy who cherry picks crap stats to buttress your preconceived notion that Allen won't succeed.

Just one time you should have the sense to admit you're wrong and learn something from others who have a greater understanding of things like statistics, accuracy, etc. You are confusing accuracy and precision, like many. Allen is pretty accurate in that his receivers can make a play on his passes. He needs to be more precise. Really good QBs are both. And to say the pundits are looking at every throw is , to use your favorite word, nonsense. Most of the stuff I read harps on the completion percentage stuff, and even Rodak posted the other day that if you look at the adjusted rate he's middle of the pack. Statistical analysis in general for pro sports is overly simplified and does not use multivariate analysis to take into account the multiple variables that can affect something as simple as whether a pass gets completed or not. And missing Clay by 8 yards is simply silly reasoning. The ball hit him in both hands. Was Clay supposed to just stand still in the back of the end zone, or does he have any responsibility to adjust to the throw. Professional football players are supposed to catch balls that hit them in the hands.

You also continually demonstrate you do not understand what the term accurate means.

Actually he's not. And I and others have explained numerous things the fallacy of completion percentage as a measure of accuracy. But you refuse to accept this because it interferes with your bias that he's bad.