oldmanfan

Good points. I don't know if he makes it or not. What I have a problem with in this and other threads are: 1. Reactive belief of stats without a true understanding of what they may or may not mean 2. Folks claiming some Nostradamus-like insight as to the future of this kid without any real idea what they're talking about, confusing their opinion with fact. All rookie QBs go through growth periods, some longer than others. Some have better teams around them, some not. The last and maybe only rookie QB I can think of that had "it" from day one was Marino. All others had ups and downs as they figured things out. Let Allen play, let him learn. Quit dissecting every single pass as if that definitively makes him great or terrible.

Winston too. The guy who you have traded an entire draft for. But we should bow down at your wisdom.

You're responding to someone who felt Winston was going to be the God of QBs and stated he'd trade an entire draft for him so keep that in mind. I'm afraid you've hit the nail on the head. There are some who have confirmation bias; they said Allen would not work and will hang onto anything to support that because they would rather brag about being right than see the kid succeed. Of course you also have the other extreme, and equally invalid. I think any objective appraisal of Allen would say a couple things. One, he has work to do to become a consistent NFL QB. Second, he's shown more that many thought he would as a rookie. Third, he needs more help around him to reach his potential. I think history tells us first round QBs have around a 50% chance of success. Allen is no exception.

If I approach my interpretation of the PFF data as I would reviewing a scientific manuscript, I would ask a couple questions. Hapless has already mentioned one: a more complete description of their methods. I would also ask about how many people they have reviewing each QB. Do they have one person doing the analysis of each QB? Several? How well do individual observers agree on their ratings (measurement error)? Do they average results from several observers? As one who has the responsibility of quality control in a lab, I have to deal with these type things on a regular basis and can tell you there can be significant inter and intraobserver variability. I think there is probably some useful info in the PFF material. I just don't know how much or how useful because I don't know enough about how they did the analysis. Again, says the guy who wanted to trade an entire draft for Winston but pretends he's a QB savant. He can have another year? How generous of you given you have absolutely no say in it.

If the stats mean much. Read Hapless above; he describes the issues very well.

Thanks for this reply. I am not biased for or against Allen; I just want apples compared to apples. As I pointed out I was intrigued by the article but would like to sit with the PFF guys to see how they break down misses, tight coverage etc. Hapless points out reasons why their analysis could be skewed and why O linemen hate their analysis. Ultimately their analysis tries to put objective measures on their subjective calls on things.

You don't like it when people like me who have an understanding of terms such as accuracy and precision try to help you out. Don't know why, but you don't. When Allen misses guys by a mile, he is both inaccurate and imprecise. As would any QB. But that is rarely the case. He could stand to be more precise for sure. You are not the only one who confuses these, but it is an important distinction. QBs have to be accurate or they would never make it to an NFL level. The great ones have high precision to go with accuracy. I read the article and it was intriguing, but I would have loved to sit with the guys doing their analysis and see how much we agreed on what would constitute a dropped pass, or what they considered tight coverage as that is one of the measurable they used. And so on. I'm sure this will infuriate you more, and I'm sorry if it does, but another statistical term that is useful in this whole Allen dialog is confirmation bias. I think that is at play with many when talking about Allen. They decided he will not work out in the NFL, and thus any data that tends to support that view gets accepted without any sort of critical analysis because it confirms what you want to believe. I review a ton of scientific papers and it's the biggest reason for rejection. And the second is improper use of statistics. Allen is certainly making progress but he has a ways to go as a passer. And, again, we can debunk the idea that accuracy (really precision) is innate and cannot be improved with practice. Any physical ability can be improved by correct repetition. Recall that it isn't practice that makes perfect, it's that perfect practice makes perfect. He can continue to work on things, work on film study, hopefully get some more talent around him. And we'll see where it takes him. He's a rookie. He has things to learn and things to improve. Give him time to do so before throwing him to the sharks.

If truly great, yes. But what is great? I'd say a HOF type. And out of hundreds of guys playing the position in the modern area there's about 30 in the Hall. Or to out it another way, to pay a guy like Cousins a guaranteed 80 some million is insane.

Hope you're right. Maybe he'll be like Moulds - took him a while to catch on.

It is not just vocabulary and not just pedantic though. There is a real difference between accuracy and precision. Allen is pretty accurate, but he needs to be accurate AND precise, and at times he's not as precise as he could be. The best QBs have both; not only are they accurate in that they put the ball in the catchable radius for their receiver, but they put it is a precise spot where, say, they can continue with run after the catch and not have to reach back for a ball and thus not gain as many YAC. That is why I don't think completion percentage means much, and why I'd love to be sitting with these guys from PFF when they do their advanced stats. Because I think they confuse the two terms. Granted I come from a lab background and it skews my thinking on this. If you get lab tests that are accurate but not precise or vice versa you can wind up in trouble. I do agree with experience he'll see the field better, and make better choices.

I may have missed it, but did McD and Beane every say they had a three year turn around plan? Or is that made up in the mind of the OP? I did hear them say they had short and long term goals, to make the franchise consistently competitive.

To me a #1 demands double teams and still makes plays. Those are rare and cost tons. I can see the value of having several guys perhaps not at that level but capable of running good routes, getting separation, and above all having reliable hands. I'm not sure we have even #2's right now on the roster. I thought Zay would be good when we drafted him, but he has not shown good separation ability and worst his hands are iffy - who would have predicted that from the guy who set an NCAA record? foster is unreliable catching the ball, although he can get separation. McKenzie is unreliable catching the ball. So is Croom at TE. Could some of these guys still contribute? Maybe, if they had more solid guys above them that take some pressure off of them. I just think we need two more solid WRs, and solid TE, and then we also have to figure out how to add at least three new O linemen plus replace Shady. Should be a very interesting offseason - you can't fix all of this but you have to make a sizable dent in it if you're Beane.

A privilege to watch him all these years. I hope they line him up at FB and let him score one more TD in tribute.

spot on

I read the article, and it's intriguing. Pff, as so many do, confuses accuracy with precision. Allen is accurate in that he gives players a chance to make the catch. He can be more precise; that is where you put a ball on a specific spot. The best Qbs have both high accuracy and high precision. Also, the work on his completion percentage with guys that are covered seems odd. To me that speaks more to the ability of a receiver to get separation and/or fight for a ball, not so much the QB's accuracy. I would love to sit down with the folks who analyze every play and compare notes on what they consider inaccurate, how they know that a receiver ran a correct route, etc. Lot of variables to consider on every pass; do the analysts take all into account? Allen IMHO needs to work on a couple things. One is recognition, knowing when to take the short throw for 5-10 yards vs. going downfield. That should come with experience (although as an aside, I find it amusing how many here complain about a guy not throwing checkdowns after reading for years how many of the same folks criticized guys like Edwards et al for checking down too much). Two, Allen needs to work on consistency. When he sets up and throws from a clean pocket he is much more accurate and precise, but still misses some throws he should make. With improved O line play, continued work in the off season on mechanics, and such, (not to mention better WRs) he should also improve there. Regarding WR, it cannot be overstated that his WRs have not helped Allen's stats. I was thinking about one of the most famous plays in Super Bowl history yesterday, the pass from Bradshaw to Swann against the Cowboys where Swann goes way up and makes the circus catch (a throw that was, by the way, accurate but not very precise). Sometimes WRs have to make catches like that; I haven't seen that in our WRs as of yet, but I have seen them drop a ton of easily catchable balls. Very few NFL QBs are finished products as rookies. The last one I can remember as being that was Marino. Allen should improve as things go forward. People around here need to give him time.

Your chronically injured LT

Used Glenn to get Allen. Everyone hollers they have to draft a QB, they do so, then it's how you should've concentrated on I line.

Of course you can. They elected to rip the band aid off quickly rather than stretch it out. They were clear on that to Terry and everyone. They had players they didn't want. Good bye.

The attorneys here can correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought when you purchase a ticket with policies set forth by the team you enter into a contract. And if you violate the terms of the contract you can be dismissed. And if you then challenge authorities you can get arrested.

I agree wholeheartedly they have to focus on the lines, especially on offense. I think I would focus on finding a couple guys in FA, particularly a quality C if they see one. It takes a while for young guys to learn the position and Allen could really use a real pro at C to help with blocking calls, etc. Maybe the guy from Denver. But if they also see a plug in guy first round at either OT spot I'd take him. I'm betting they go for a pass rusher in round 1 because this draft is talent heavy there. And I'd be Ok seeing that as well. I see a long future for Allen, but that's assuming a good O line. Football is still won or lost in the trenches from my perspective.

This is a microcosm of what is wrong with our society at large.

Not to nitpick, but if you include Miller three starters were drafted in the last three years.

No one is saying he is. Quit being such a jackass.

Tight ends have to catch the ball. Clay isn't. Goodbye.

Doesn't bother me at all