oldmanfan
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Posts posted by oldmanfan
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2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
It’s just a shorthand for the quality of a player. Nothing artificial about that. You don’t need to use it, but it’s helpful to understand it.
I’d rather have several good guys vs. 1 great guy
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4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
The performance of the WRs in the corps is what concerns me. It is also what determines their numbering. I like Samuel and Shakir, but they are both WR3s in a good WR corps. We will see what Coleman can become. I’ll leave that as TBD. Beyond that I just see WR4s and below.
My point is that this numbering stuff is artificial.
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Just now, HappyDays said:
Come on man. I'm not rehashing an entire offseason of discussion. If you're just catching up to the draft now that's fine. The rest of us have been talking about the players we didn't take for weeks now.
He would step in and immediately be the best WR on the Bills today IMO. Top 2 at worst. If you watch that video I don't think you can reasonably disagree.
Nope. Sorry. A lot of people talked about double dipping but names are rare when push comes to shove.
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2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
We seem plenty deep at WR3 and WR4. It’s WR1 and WR2 I’m worried about. I know that there’s not much to be done at this point, but it’s a rough place to be.
I think we need to quit getting so worked up about the numbering of WRs and look at performance.
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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
That was Andre Reed-esque moves in the open field by Shakir... knowing where people are behind you and making the right moves to give them bad angles and then changing it up last second in the other direction...
That’s funny. He ran away from the Jets DBs. But our WRs have no speed. Maybe it was an optical illusion.
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3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
You can argue he was the WR4 but Harty had more receptions, carries and yards while Sherfield had more snaps and one more target. I simply don’t think you can argue Sherfield was the WR3. Also were the snaps he played in the KC playoff game factoring in his special teams snaps? Sheffield played on almost every ST unit.Of course you can argue it. You’d be wrong but that hasn’t stopped folks before.
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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Double dip at WR in the draft was the obvious move. Signing the more talented OBJ for almost the same money we are getting MVS for. Don't act like there weren't other options.
Double dipping for who? Give me a name. It’s easy to just throw that out there. And OJ is a 3rd or 4th option at this point and isn’t that fast anymore. kind f like Diggs will be at best the Texans 2nd option, more likely their third.
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For God sakes people. It is pretty clear that the top 3 WR on the field will be Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir. And you’ll also have Kincaid. So what you’re all carping about is a 4th guy with speed. Because supposedly we don’t have a guy that can “take the top” off the defense.
With this signing you now have 3 guys that potentially can do this: MVS, Claypool, Hamler. Even though statistically the league threw about 1% of total passes last year where the ball went 40 yards or over last year. But that’s still bad in some eyes here. That begs the question: what the hell do you want?
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Bills fans: We HAVE to get a guy with speed that can go deep!!!
Beane: Here’s 3, Claypool, Hamler, and Valdes-Scantling.
Biils fans: Not THOSE guys!!!
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To all obsessing about having to have a “true” #1 WR, and whom to trade for:
I f a “true” #1 is so necessary and valuable, why would a team who has one trade him?
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18 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Come again? I was unaware that there had been any discussion of the WR position, on this particular forum! 😮
I’m not even sure what WR stands for. I grew up with split ends and flankers.
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12 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Is it factually accurate? Yes. It is accurate to say that there is a limit to the number of years Allen has left. We don't know what that limit is. Andrew Luck is an example of a franchise QB who retired early and had a short career. Tom Brady is an example of arguably the best QB ever, who had a very long career. Even if you want to go full bore optimist, and make the argument Allen's career will be as long as Brady's, that's still an upper limit on the number of years Josh has left. As for "hysteria" about Josh's window: there hasn't been any in this thread. Maybe there's been some elsewhere?
As for the impact of a holder, I agree with you.
Definite hysteria elsewhere, not here. I tried to word it that way. I guess I just don’t swear kickers that much. If Bass doesn’t do better they’ll make a change. And I think as Josh gets older he will get wiser, not run as much, take check downs when they’re there, and have a good 10 more years of stellar play.
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47 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Thanks for your candor.
That's fine, but then don't ask me to repeat info purely at your personal behest when it's already been provided with much supporting evidence. Imagine if you wrote a post explaining your position with all sorts of detail and supporting documentation, I only skimmed it, but then commented, "challenged assumptions," and otherwise argued your points which were fully contained and outlined in your post? How would that sit with you? ... or if I commented on one of your posts during an interaction between you and someone else, while taking something entirely out of context to "argue" your position?
We all do that once in a while, but you do it as a rule, at least with me.
Otherwise, it's also quite a bit hypocritical to challenge the well annotated and well reasoned out arguments of others, while providing little if any actual info much less factual data yourself to the contrary and to arguments that you stand by.
And again, I've offered several times now to go through game video in detail to illustrate for you, upon your not only challenging but also arguing points, to validate them one way or the other and investigate further, and you've refused every time. Even just one game to give you a glimpse. That's also a bit hypocritical.
We clearly just don’t mesh in opinion. I have a stats background but I don’t spend a ton of time trying to get into the weeds of things because the Bills are entertainment to me. So I’ll just refrain from comment now. If you don’t see that a blanket statement suggesting the team has no plan on offense is silly then there’s no sense attempting to converse.
Go Bills!
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7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
If you're not going to read my posts that explain all that, then there's zero sense in us communicating in this manner. I'm getting tired of shagging your foul balls.
So for that reason I'll simply give you a thumbs up in the future and ignore you.
I understand if you don't want to read the longer posts of mine, which is fine, but then don't comment asking questions, "challenging assumptions," or otherwise responding when what you ask for is provided in them. Granted, they're not for everybody. I spend a LOT of time researching and cataloging data and info. To ignore it is insulting.
I skim your posts because they seem to provide confirmation bias.
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3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Constantly disagreeing with me while offering little if any substance to the contrary is not challenigng assumptions, it's stalking.
I've asked you several times now what that offensive plan is, you've said/provided nothing.
I've offered, based upon your "challenging of assumptions" if we can legitimately call it that, to go through a single game highlight reel, or more, and provide the answers to your challenges, but you refused and defaulted to the let's just wait and see "argument."
Otherwise, when I engage with another poster that claims that the plan may be to use Davis as a short-yardage RB, per your quoting of me two of your posts above, and you leapfrog that entirely and inject narrative nonsense, yeah, I'd say that's stalking.
I've offered quite a bit of my time in answering your questions, going through video, etc., but you constantly shut that down. Other times you've challenged facts, not assumptions, then went on as if they didn't exist. So again, yeah, at this point I consider it to be stalking.
I just looked quickly and the Bills were 4th in YPG last year. Is it possible you’re overreacting?
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11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Thanks! And yes, I would agree with you there. Otherwise you really said a mouthful, perhaps without intending to. We could discuss this for pages as there are numerous complexities beyond high-level stats and "eye tests."
That's a good topic for discussion. Is it a fair way to make the comparison? (BTW, I get 25.0 PPG, not 26.6. Did you remove the STs and D TDs in the NE & Miami games?)
If it is a fair way to make the comparison, then here's what I noticed about that. You broke it down by the first 4 games and the last 6 games. But our first game, season opener, on the road, was far more like one of Brady's late season games than much else. I'd say games 2-4, then games 5-10, then games 11-14, and if we're going to apply the same standard, per your "unsustainable bump" comment above, and in fairness to the trend/pattern under Dorsey that began after four games, games 15-17. That's to start, but let's create an order for discussion here.
We as a team have a history of "unsustainable bumps" in our season-long performances. We're typically very strong at the home-opener, and in the case of some games, typically at home, that are huge games. The Dallas game fell into that category last season. After our defensive collapse vs. the Eagles in allowing them their 2nd best offensive game on the season, a pall was cast over all things Bills. But then next week, if for no other motivation, we beat our nemesis the Chiefs, which offered a renewed albeit slim hope for making the playoffs much less winning the division. So we got up bigly (LOL) for the Dallas game and dusted them. But then things kinda fell apart from a performance perspective despite the fact that we won the next three games, entirely unimpressively it can be added.
Take the Chargers game. We barely beat the Chargers and managed only 24 offensive points, while allowing 22 points to them. First, this was a team fielding Easton Stick at QB, and to make matters less impressive, Ekeler at RB, and with two rookies, Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston at WR, perrenial 3/4 WR Palmer, journeyman Alex Erickson, and roster-bubble WR Jalen Guyton as their WR corp and with no TE of any significant consequence. That's an offensive skill position roster that makes our WR cadre look like an All-Pro team.
So was the defense holding that unit to 22 points and 273 yards, with Easton going a very efficient 23 of 33 for 215 passing yards, and another 25 rushing yards and a TD there, impressive? Consider as well, that we allowed more points to that Herbert-less Chargers team than any of the other four teams that played them. Additionally, five other teams held them to fewer points, a lot fewer in most cases, against the team when it had Herbert and Keenan Allen. 20, 17, 17, 10, and 6 there.
So was that defensive performance really impressive? ... or something to be regarded as something other than underachieving for a 4th ranked D?
I won't go into the same detail, which also has mitigating circumstances per the above, like Zappe playing QB for NE, or the fact that the TD pass to Sherfield in the Miami game involved a lot of luck for that batted pass to end up where it did with Sherfield making a phenominal play after doing absolutely nothing significant all season. But let's break it down by those last three games however using the same metrics that you used above.
Brady Last Three Games:
363 YPG
32:46 ToP
19.3 PPG
What sticks out there?
Similar YPG. Marginally but relatively insignificant reduction in ToP. But what, a near TD/game drop in production.
So here's how I look at that and see more cause for concern than I do for hope. With an average advantage in those three games of 82 YPG, 5:32 in ToP, 3.7 more 1st Downs, not to mention Allen v. Schtick & Zappe in two of those games, yet only a .3 PPG advantage?
That's attributable to the offense. In short, ball movement was similar, but our ability to put points on the board diminished significantly, very significantly in fact. 19.3 PPG would have been good for 26th in the league that's how poor it was. And, at a time when every game was needed to simply make the playoffs. Moreover, it's not as if any of those defenses were any good. The Chargers ranked 24th, NE 15th, and Miami 22nd.
So getting back to the question, is how you presented it a fair way to make a comparison? Is it comprehensive? Obviously not.
I attribute it to the second bolded part, an unsustainable bump for a new coach, and, the meddling of a defensive-minded head coach who seemed to believe that the rushing from Cook in the Dallas game was sustainable over the long haul when there's absolutely nothing historically in his dossier that even remotely suggests that could even reasonably be the case. Right?
In fact, they talked about Allen running too much, then increased Allen's rushing load under Brady, going from 4.8 carries/game and 24.6 rushing yards, nearly doubling to 9.0 carries and 39.7 rushing yards. Is that really where this team with Allen needs to go as he ages?
Cook under Brady, apart from that single outlier Dallas game, saw his YPC avg. plummet to 3.6 YPC with not a TD to be found. Is that sustainable? One might say that's why we drafted Davis. Well, OK, but that also involves an entirely different offensive mindset than pitched by McD a year ago and after ditching Moss, who once again, had a notably more prolific career both rushing and receiving than Davis did in college. Moss' draft profiles are greater than Davis' as well. So we'll see there, but honestly, why the hope there?
True, which is why I prefer as much info as possible.
I would say that the offense looked fantastic in games 2-4 and in games 11, 12, and 14 under Brady and similar to Dorsey's fast start, as both seemed to settle into, not even mediocrity, but well below-average production otherwise and considering that we have Allen. In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season. So while it's nice that we can dust poor teams like the Raiders, the Skins with their league worst D, a hapless Jets team by the time we played them, a very overrated Eagles team, and even Dallas who came off of an emotionally draining huge Sunday night game the week before, and of course Miami, who all but literally cannot beat us since we've had Allen, it's the steady-stated that matters.
As to the two playoff games, our staff being out of answers on how to maximize our offensive roster, once again just stepped out of the way allowing Allen to do everything including running the ball, which they wisely said they wanted to get away from a year earlier thereby confusing matters even more, to the tune of over 40% of the rushing plays and all three rushing TDs.
That unsustainable seems to apply here as well.
Lastly, as to your statement where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season.
Why do you think that is? Do the other teams that win their divisional round games suffer from the same, year in and year out?
Thoughts?
Neither do you. What we do know is what they say is not what they do.
Acquire Hines as a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield, then don't even remotely use him in that capacity.
All's well with Diggs when they've known or a while that it isn't.
Need a faster offense with a Cook type RB. Now we're going in the complete opposite direction.
Draft Davis, someone with a worse draft profile (nfl.com and pff et al.) than Moss, with Moss having been more prolific at everything with similar build and style.
There's more, but to start.
Otherwise, what is their plan? Is it evident?
Otherwise feel free to quit stalking me.
Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year.
Challenging your assumptions is not stalking. To presume there is no offensive plan is silly.
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4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Oh, as we get deeper into every offseason NFL fans get pretty imaginative. Remember when much of TSW were buying the "Trent Edwards can run the no huddle" kool-aid after Russ Brandon acquired TO to pair with Lee Evans? Nothing we'd seen on the field from Trentative should have suggested he was anywhere near capable of this.........but fans ate it up. Looked good in mini-camp. Turk Schonert was going to be the man with the plan at OC.
That whole process of rationalization took an enormous suspension of disbelief and vast amounts of imagination. It wasn't reality. The further we get from watching real football the more fans forget what works and what doesn't.
I like Brady but you need the Jimmy's and Joe's once defense's adjust to "tactics". Because they will. The Dolphins ran up 70 points in a game against the Broncos early last season but eventually their limitations got exposed. You gotta' have difference makers at key positions to survive and advance. Bills are lacking that at WR. They made up for that by running Allen almost 10x per game during the Brady stint as OC. That's not a good long term strategy, IMO.
No they are not lacking that at WR. Or TE. You say that simply to confirm your negativity. Let’s see how they play.
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4 minutes ago, Rockinon said:
You are trying to pigeon hole these guys into specific places. This offense requires all receivers to play both inside and out. For the most part, Coleman will be on the outside, yes, but that isn't all he'll be asked to do. Same with Shakir and Samuel. Their speed will be used to go deep and go to the outside. There will be a lot of interchanging routes by all of these guys. The notion that there must be a big X receiver who is also fast is greatly overblown. Many here seem to be of the opinion that this offense has no speed but that simply is not true. The combination of having all receivers playing outside and over the middle, while also mixing up speed and route running ability basically makes having that speedy big X a luxury that isn't really needed.
Another element that is overlooked is the running game and production from the TEs. It's going to be really interesting watching how the offense finds the right balance of run or pass. Short pass vs long pass. There are a lot of talented skill position players and the move away from the Josh to Diggs show late last season was the right decision. The offense needs to evolve.
Thankfully one can hope Brady is more imaginative than the fan base.
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On 5/9/2024 at 11:42 PM, PBF81 said:
Cook petered out late in the season. He averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards-per-carry in his last five games. Not sure whether that was how he was used or simply being unused to that many touches.
How this season plays out will be incredibly interesting. We had an even higher rated RB in Moss, very similar in style to Davis, and far more accomplished in college, and we didn't seem to know how to use him and didn't do much with him.
There certainly isn't any clear plan in view.
This is silly. No clear plan in view? You have no idea what Brady wants him to do yet. There’s some context for you.
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The kid is psyched to play with Josh, and has his own skill set. He doesn’t have to be Diggs or Davis. How about just being Coleman and see how that works?
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Only if by doing so it would have stopped the OP from going on and on and on about the WR position.
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6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
No. It isn't. Drama often comes in two forms. 1) An exaggeration of facts. 2) An exaggerated conclusion.
It's factually accurate to say that Allen only has a limited number of years left before his window starts closing. Nextmanup's conclusion or implication is that the Bills should treat each of those years as precious. If a player would decrease the team's chances of winning a Super Bowl during that window, the Bills might want to think twice about keeping that player.
Clearly, the Bills had more and bigger problems in the playoff game against the Chiefs than Tyler Bass. I don't think anyone here is trying to hang that loss on him. But it is reasonable to ask, was Bass part of the problem, or was he part of the solution? When Bass is on his game, he's one of the top kickers in the league. No doubt. I'm sure we all want him to get back to being what he once was. But how much time do we give him? If he fails to improve, there's absolutely a chance he messes with Allen's window. As a Bills fan, I'm well aware of what it's like to have a postseason game come down to the final play, and what it's like to lose that game by a single point due to a missed 47 yard field goal attempt.
Is it factually accurate? If one looks at the age of SB winning QBs a few were younger than Josh is now, a few around the same age, and some in their 30’s such as Elway, Staubach, Brady, and so on. I would argue the hysteria in some minds about Josh’s window is overblown.
As for Bass, the impact of a holder is hard to measure. He has Haack now so we’ll see if that helps. If not and he continues to struggle they’ll move on. But assuming they’ll find someone who can kick better in the Ralph with how the wind swirls around in there is a risky assumption.
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5 hours ago, PBF81 said:
A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?
Who can also catch. Who can also pass protect. And so on.
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Davis seems like a solid addition. Get 4 years out of him then draft the next guy. Such is the worth of the RB in the NFL
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling meeting with the Bills (UPDATE: Signed)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I fundamentally disagree. Brady’s offense looks to spread the ball around to open guys. I think Josh can thrive in that vs. having to worry about feeding a guy like Diggs.
If Brady does his job well we have multiple targets plus a better run game.