TheElectricCompany

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

I respectfully disagree based on production & playmaking ability. Outside of the top 5, I don't really have a firm ranking in mind. I think you could make a case for many guys, but I would argue there are clearly 10 guys that are better than Sammy right now, if not 15.

Yeah, I would only put OBJ that high because I think he's the best speed threat and his performance in years 1-3 is unprecedented. If he had Julio's size I think you have a case for him being #1. I would rank them: Julio - OBJ - Antonio Brown - AJ Green - Demaryius Thomas - Dez. However, I don't think the dropoff to guys like Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders is very severe. The quality of wide receivers in 2017 is very high.

I value that some folks like to spend their time doing this, it's not my cup of tea, but to each their own. However, I am naturally suspicious when someone starts arguing that 1) an elite player is not really that good or 2) a good player is closer to elite because of all these advanced stats or in depth film watching. We know where Sammy ranks in total production, so when folks are arguing how he's top 5 or something, yeah, it grinds my gears. We've all got a little homer to us, but let's be real about what other elite receivers have produced and the hill Sammy has to climb to reach that category. Again, he's clearly talented, but we've had plenty of guys with potential. I cross my fingers that a 2017 campaign of 91 catches, 1,395 yards and 12 TDs put to rest this argument. OBJ already rewrote the record books for receivers through 3 years, Julio is the only receiver in the league I would take over him straight up.

McCaffery is not a slot WR. You don't draft a RB at 10 and ask him to change positions. I'd prefer Davis if we must, but I think one of the top CBs, S or DL will slide this year (it would be odd to have an early run on CBs and S in picks 2-6) and we'll get much better value going that route.

That's good that you're well connected with established NFL scouts, but I don't see them making the kind of ridiculous statements this thread is full. I just don't see how someone could walk away from watching Sammy live and on tape over the past three seasons and think the guy is the best thing since sliced bread. It's perfectly fine for some to disregard the consistency and production of established top tier receivers and both inflate and project what Sammy could do if his situation was perfected. Again, he's not a bad receiver, he's certainly quality and has big play ability, but it's this top 3-10 stuff that makes me scratch my head. If the guy really burns corners left and right and is open every play, how is it that 3 offensive coordinators and 2 head coaches couldn't find a way to get him the ball consistently? There are only two possible scenarios: Our coaches were so incredibly incompetent that they missed a top tier receiver right in front of their eyes, or he's just not as good as we think. Take your pick.

Are you a NFL scout? A pro analyst? A full time coach? That be awesome if you were, because I'd push your posts to the top of the pile But sure, let's jump on All 22 from WGR, a few Youtube highlight reels and go the games and make funny statements like "He's open every play", "He's a top 3 WR when healthy" or "He'd outperform OBJ if the tables were turned".

It's a great feature, but that doesn't mean we're any better at analyzing players. We're all just casual fans who have no idea on how to watch tape and measure play by play performance.

If all it took to analyze players was going to the games and watching "All 22" from WGR, we'd all have front office jobs. This doesn't even have anything to do with Sammy, it's just bull **** statements like "he's open every play" that make me chuckle. I wouldn't say that any player is always open, but I think there are a select few players that are "open when they're covered", and usually it's because they dwarf anyone covering them or are just ridiculous in a jump ball situation (Gronk, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson pre retirement)

Cooper has looked good so far, from some of the local Raaaaaiiiddeeerrr fans talk, it sounds like he's a bit streaky as a catcher. The longer we go without football, the crazier these Sammy statements become. I love it.

I also would prefer we look elsewhere at 10. With free agency and the salary cap, I think smart teams know what areas they can be weak in and still win . We are set up with a #1 running attack and should work to sustain that. You can't have a top tier passing game and running game. Pick which one is more important and roll with it. He should stay here for another two years, no doubt. He's the only speed threat we have.

OBJ has outproduced every NFL receiver in history in his first three seasons, but sure, go ahead believing that Sammy would be in that class if the tables were turned. I'd love those rose colored glasses, but here we go again with these la-la-land projections. Now, moving on, yes, Sammy was certainly a top tier prospect, but that really doesn't matter much after the draft card is turned in. Of course he'd be picked up immediately, he's certainly talented, but we are talking about him being a top tier player, and the hype just doesn't match the production yet.

This is a by-product of our run priorities, but in theory, this should lead to defenses playing us close to the LOS and lead to tremendous opportunities for play action downfield. In these situations, I would argue that Sammy's quality of opportunities are much higher than what many WRs are used to. Ex. Denver had a terrible time running the football the last two years (combined with poor QB play), and I do think this allowed defenses to put additional help towards DT and Sanders, which has impacted their TDs, big plays and lowered their YPCs.

I think a smart coach should always be looking for new ways to get their playmakers the ball. I do think it's reasonable that Watkins could put up more numbers in a wide open passing attack with a proven QB, but that's also a scenario that we can never test in real time. It's a "hypothesis contrary to fact" fallacy that only exists in la-la-land. Here's my issue with this as well. Are you improving the situations of other WRs around the league? You can't only improve Sammy's, keep everyone elses the same, and then use that as justification for why he's better than many of them. OBJ would be way more effective if Eli didn't toss all those picks. Demaryius Thomas would have produced more in 2015 and 2016 if he didn't have garbage QB play and a lingering hip injury. TY Hilton would have produced more if Andrew Luck played all 16 games in 2015 and 2016. If Russel Wilson was a traditional QB, I bet Doug Baldwin would be better. Brandin Cooks had issues getting playing time and targets all year. AJ Green had some injury issues and QB play has been troublesome for years. I could go on and on...

Lol. Top 3?? I can't even give this a serious response

Were Julio, Antonio and DT considered elite after year 3? I'd strongly argue no. Please look at my posts. I said multiple times we should keep Sammy.

It shouldn't be surprising we are low on attempts, our running game is the best in the league by a wide margin and we shouldn't get away from that. However, this should setup a strong play action game and leave Sammy with lots of favorable matchups deep downfield, which is one of the reasons I think he has a high YPC number. I just don't think that 9 game run means as much as you. He's a good receiver, but greatness is being good consistently, and that's really the only barrier stopping him from entering the elite conversation (although, it's a big barrier). He has flashed talent, but the league is full of guys who have flashed talent and never put it together of an extended period of time.

I'm more interested in why he has continued to get less targets than many #1 receivers in the league. Yes, you can blame the coaching staff, the offensive scheme, Tyrod's ability, his injury struggles, I get that, but at some point, you have to consider that Sammy may not be all he's cracked up to be when it comes to route running, separation, rapport with his QB, etc. etc. If he was really burning corners left and right and streaking down the field wide open, he'd have all the targets he'd need to be elite.

We are discussing if he is a top tier receiver in today's NFL, not how he compared to past Bills. Through his career, he has not put together numbers that place him in the top 10 of receivers (I'd argue top 15).

Yards per target is suddenly the new metric for NFL WRs? News to me. I love isolated performance stats that contradict the entire body of work. I think they'll pick up the option, as they should.

Yes, availability is key. Fingers crossed he can stay healthy this year and put this stuff to rest.

The 2nd half of 2015 is a small sample size. That was a great run, but getting hot for half a season does not equal elite. Is it so much to ask that Sammy puts up a single 1200+ yard and 10+ TD season before we start throwing that title around? You know, what guys like DT, Dez, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Julio, OBJ have done multiple times in their career to cement their reputation as elite players.

Before Dez's injury, he averaged 1,215 yards and 12 TDs per year in his second through fifth seasons. That's elite production. I would argue that after Julio's first 2 years, he wasn't elite, but he was certainly close. After he healed up, he cemented his place as one of the best in the game. Sammy wasn't elite after his first two years, and isn't today.

Ah, here we go again with putting Sammy up on the pedestal again. He's certainly not a top 10 guy, and I don't think he's even top 15. Don't give me this "yards per target" garbage, or average out his non injury production across 16 games and act like that's worth anything. He just hasn't produced like a top tier receiver. Anyway, I'd pick up the option. Avoid a situation where you have to franchise him next year. If he continues to struggle, let him go in 2019. He's shown flashes and I think this year could be excellent for him.

He certainly goes to the beat of his own drum, and it's no surprise he clashed with the Buffalo vibe. WNY is far more complex than "white suburban". Manufacturing roots, salt of the earth personalities, a region with a "chip on the shoulder" for decades of national slights, occasional simpleton thinking, ongoing recovery from a "brain drain". I'll always love it, but I can see how some people can get turned off by it fairly easily.