TheElectricCompany

Alamosa CO area. Land can be had for less than $1K an acre with big time views. Just ignore the tumbleweeds, bone numbing cold, constant wind and regional poverty and you'll be fine.

Only economic ones.

Goal line defense

Double double mustard fried, well done fries and a chocolate shake.

A few California is not a "one size fits all" for weather. You cannot compare San Diego to San Francisco, or Indio to Truckee. What dangerous creatures do people live in fear with? The odds of getting killed by a gator, wolf, grizzly or lion are minuscule. Natural disasters, sure, I guess that's reasonable, but it's not like CA is falling into the ocean, and you need a direct strike to lose everything in a hurricane. Buffalo weather is pretty mediocre, outside of fall.

Remember guys.... We need some preseason games fast!

I've been pretty critical of the guy lately (CFB stats only!), but this is ridiculous. Dissecting every single throw and trying to run with one isolated quote? Take a lap dudes.

You guys see Poyers wife?

Are there any CFB performance stats out there where J.A. was in the top 3 among 2018 prospects? I don't care if it's " 2/2 - 50+ yard throws off his back leg with 35 mph gusts". There has to be something.

Pump the brakes. Weather is absolutely a factor, but I don't think "performance in severe weather" is noteworthy when evaluating a NCAA player's odds of become an elite QB. I doubt that any of these statistical models added "performance in severe weather" into their equation.

Who's playing in Alaska? Haha. I doubt performance in severe weather is a factor. However, if a prospect played in severe weather significantly more than his peers, I would take that into account. Allen's big snow game from this year Date Opponent Surface Result Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating 11/04/17 Colorado St. Turf W 16-13 20 10 50.0 138 6.9 0 0 107.96

If he succeeds, it will not be because there was a NCAA statistic that was missed. What would they put into their formula instead? Performance in games with wind gusts above 35mph (I don't know if he was any good there)? He's already had every measurable statistic dissected by the masses. As mentioned before, QBASE is one of many, and every aggregate stat I've seen comes to the same conclusion on Josh Allen.

I'm sure it hasn't. They have selected the stats they feel are predicative of future success. The model wouldn't necessarily be flawed if Allen succeeds. It's already been discussed ad nauseam that he if does so, he would be a big time outlier.

Cadet has averaged 126 rushing & receiving yards p/ season. Not 1,260 yards per season. That zero is important.

QBASE is just one of many models that exist.I wonder how Wentz looked in others. If QBASE was an outlier, i think you can live with that. However, if every aggregate stat you find tells you the same thing, which in Allen's case, is that his odds of becoming elite are extremely low, that's a big problem.

Thank goodness! Think he can launch a football into the canal from SJFC?

QBASE values 2+ years starting experience. I'm sure the odds of becoming an elite QB are significantly lower for <2 year starters.

Something you looked up on Google

Agreed, although Wentz's score wasn't that bad. +274, that was below average, not "no chance in hell".

If you want some bathroom reading, the QBASE model is quite interesting. Their highest graded QBs are very impressive. What they discussed was that your college success rate is essentially your ceiling. No qualifying QB in our era has outperformed that college success rate.

Sure, let's go with that. Glad we cleared that up.

Go ahead and explain it away. That is the "stats is for losers!" way. If you want to look into more detailed analysis, such as the percentage of short throws, under pressure throws, play action opportunities, games against teams with winning records, etc. it's all out there, and it's ugly. I don't think I've seen a single performance based statistic that paints Allen in a very favorable manner, and that just sucks.

If you look at adjusted completion percentage (takes out drops, throwaways) , it will still lead you to the same reality. He completes less passes than any other top prospect.

I hope that I am wrong. If he busts, we're in dire straits. My point is the same that hundreds have made in the months before the draft. From a statistical observation, the odds of him ever becoming an elite QB are extremely low.

We could rationalize every single draft pick in that way. Every team has professional scouts and coaches who know exponentially more than Joe Fan. Even bottom feeders like the Browns or Jets have elite minds at the table. Teams still make bonehead decisions every year. So what did they see on film that screamed "elite franchise QB"? I don't know. None of us were in the room, and all we have is a buttoned up, media friendly version from Beane and company. If you want to make it about analytics, well, that has been well documented: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons My personal favorites: 1 TD and 8 INT against 3 Power 5 FBS opponents in his career. He has more INT than TDs on the road in his career. He completes 12% of his 40+ yard passes, when every other top prospect completed at least 30%. He has 2 career 300+ yard games. This whole conversation is fundamentally insane. If the guy is such an amazing prospect, why aren't there any statistics that support the claim?