BillsFan4

Just because they may multiple picks in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd doesn't mean they will trade up. Maybe getting those extra picks was more about putting the Bills in a great position to be able to take a gamble on a QB in the 1st, in what is considered a deep QB class... They can easily spend a 1st on a QB this year without much risk, since they still have another 1st + two 2nds, two 3rds etc. Where as in years where they only have 1 pick per round, gambling a 1st on a QB is a bigger risk and maybe something they choose not to do. Or maybe instead of trading up they use 2 picks on 2 different QBs... (unlikely if they still like Peterman a lot, but who knows).

This is how I feel as well. The strength of this QB draft class is in its depth. There are at least 4-5, and maybe up to 6, potential 1st round QBs this year. I dont know know if I see the point in trading the farm for the 4th QB off the board, or even the 3rd... is the 3rd or 4th QB off the board this year 3 or 4 starting caliber players better than the 4th or 5th QB off the board (which is what it might cost to trade up - 3 or 4 prime picks)? It really only makes sense to me if you are trading to pick #2 and guaranteeing yourself one of the top 2 QBs. Even then it's a crap shoot. I guess it all all depends on how the Bills have these QBs rated. If there is a huge gap between their #1 or #2 QB and their #3/4 QB, then yeah maybe it makes sense to sell the farm for #2 overall. If the gap between their #2 and #3/4/5 QB is relatively small, it makes more sense to take their #4 QB and surround him with 3,4,5 potentially very good draft prospects.

It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens with Casey. IIRC I believe they can also give him an AHL tryout contract that doesn't ruin his NCAA eligibility, to see how he does there first before making a decision on his ELC. So I could definitely at least see that happening. Get him in some Rochester playoff games. He has some tantalyzing skill, but I'm not positive he's ready for the NHL yet. I think it comes down to more of whether or not the Sabres want him in the AHL next year or in college, and what Casey wants as well. He may prefer to stay in school if that's the case. While Mittelstadt did have an impressive college season, he was only at a 0.8 point per game pace. Clayton Keller was at a 1.5 ppg pace, and Eichel was at almost 1.8ppg. Casey could definitely still grow his game in school another year, so I won't be that surprised either way - if he stays in school, signs an AHL tryout or the Sabres decide to give him his ELC.

It's worth mentioning that trading up for the #4 QB in that 2004 draft costs the Bills the chance to draft Aaron Rodgers in 2005.... and its also also worth mentioning that the last time 3 QBs went off the board in the first 3 picks, 2 of them ended up being Tim Couch and Akili Smith! lol Seriously though, As I just said in another thread, I have no interest in selling the farm just to get any random one of the top 4 QBs in this draft. If the Bills can get their #1 or #2 ranked guy, then yes absolutely do it! But giving up a haul of picks to get their #4 rated QB on their draft board? Not so sure that'd be worth it. It's only worth it if the Bills have their #4 QB rated much higher than their #5 rated QB. If they are similarly ranked, I don't see where it makes sense to give up a haul of picks because if the Bills feel both players have similar chances of making it and/or hitting their ceiling, then 3 players is better than trading those 3 picks for 1 player.

If that is truly the case, maybe just forget about a big trade up then. The 4th QB off the board just isn't worth selling the farm for, unless the Browns are very reasonable in their request, or one of the Bills top 2 QBs falls to 4. But Trading up just to get their #4 ranked QB wouldn't really seem worth it to me, especially if the price was too high. I would guess the difference in the ranking between the Bills #4 and #5 QBs on their board wouldn't be worth giving up multiple picks for. If they see a huge huge difference between their 4th and 5th ranked QBs, then do it. If not, then there's probably not much reason.

The order QBs are drafted in is usually pretty hard to predict. Unless there are 1 or 2 clear cut can't miss QB prospects and not much after that (like in the Winston and Mariota draft, or Goff/Wentz). This year there really is no clear cut #1 rated QB. It looks to be a very deep QB draft and It seems to be a group of 3, 4 or even 5 that are at the top. So your guess is as good as mine... Although I think either Rosen or Allen go to the NYJ, and Mayfield to either Denver or Miami. That's my best guess as of now.

As I said in another thread, whether we trade up or not Beane and mcdermott have us in a great position to take a gamble on a QB high in the draft this year. Having two 1sts, 2nds, 3rds and 5ths makes it a lot easier to take a shot on a QB in the 1st. Instead of trading up, What if the plan plan is to draft 2 QBs this year to increase their odds of hitting on one? This is comsidered a very deep QB draft. Maybe they take 1 in the 1st, and another in the 3rd? (or something like that). Just a thought... (I doubt it though, since I think they still like Peterman a lot and it would be hard to develop 3 young QBs all at once).

I think the Dolphins may want Mayfield. Definitely heard Arizona may like him. I know (newly retired) Bruce Arians supposedly loves him. I think the trade with Cincy happened for multiple reasons. But... Could part of the reason be that Beane wanted to trade up in front of Arizona? (Although I think that is likely even if Jackson isn't the target, simply because Arizona is definitely in the QB market).

Yes, I know Hackenberg wasn't as highly touted as Allen seems to be (although he was considered a potential #1 overall pick after his first season). But I feel that he does share some similarities with Hack, as I described in my last post. What you mentioned is actually part of the reason why I think he could go to the Jets at #3 though. Allen seems to be thought of highly enough to be considered at the top of the draft. He's a much higher rated prospect than Hackenberg, but still shares some of the same traits Hack has that may have helped Maccagnan fall in love with him (Hackenberg).

This is kind of what I said in another thread - Maccagnan knows his job is on the line, and is acting with a bit of desperation. According to the article on the MMQB about this trade, he sold Woody Johnson on this plan over a year ago. To do whatever it takes to land one of the top 4 QBs in this draft. He bought some time on the job by selling Johnson on this plan. If he stayed at 6 at possibly missed out on all top 4 QBs, he's possibly fired before next season. You can't expect Beane or other GMs that have more job security to be willing to go toe to toe with a GM who's maybe willing to act a bit irrationally/recklessly (by overpaying) to keep his job. He's basically willing to gamble it all on any one of the top 3/4 QBs this year... (that's not the most sound plan IMO). Maccagnan gave up 4 top 50 picks to move up 3 spots. That's a hard offer to compete with, especially when you consider that the Colts will either still get a blue chip prospect, or have a chance to trade down a 2nd time with another QB needy team and stockpile even more assets.

How do you figure that? This didn't really change anything. The Jets at #6 were in front of us before today, too. They just moved up 3 more spots and took away 1 potential trade-up partner. If getting a one of the top 4 QBs is the Bills goal, We still have just as good shot at the #4 QB this year the way I see it. It's still mainly the Browns, Broncos and Jets in dont of us for QB (except now it goes Browns, Jets, Broncos). I guess Miami is a potential wild card, but I think we could pretty easily find our way in front of them somewhere between 6-10 if they had to. Or maybe they move to 4 to jump the Broncos, or sell the farm for #2.

I still feel good about getting a quality QB prospect this draft, whether we move up or stay where we are. One of the strengths of this draft is how deep the QB class is. And whether we move up or not, Beane and McDermott put us in a great position to take a gamble on a QB high in the draft this year. They have two 1sts, 2nds and 3rds. They can gamble and be a bit less gun-why on a QB in the 1st this year that maybe they woulld be more hesitant to pull the trigger on in a year with only 1 pick in each round. Shoot, they could decide to take a shot on 2 QBs in this draft and it still wouldn't really hurt them, draft wise.

If Beane did in fact know a day before the trade, that makes me happy because that most likely means he was involved in, or at least exploring, the trade discussions to move to 3.

But it sounds like they already had their mind made up a year ago that they would do whatever it took to get 1 of the top 4 QBs this year. I dont see how they could have properly vetted all those QBs a year before their draft, and before they even played in their draft seasons. (As just 1 example - Remember when Matt Barkley was thought to be a sure fire #1 overall pick before he played his draft season...?). I get what you're saying about "if you don't have a strong feeling by now, it ain't happening" though. Just because Beane hasn't let his desire on a QB slip to the media doesn't mean he isn't all in on trying to get one of these QBs. It very well could just be that he wasn't comfortable with just getting one of the top 3 QB's in this draft, and if he's going to trade up he has to make sure the 1 QB he wants is still there (aka trade up to pick 2 once he's comfortable that the Browns are going with their guy (like the Eagles did once they knew the Rams were taking Goff) or wait and see if his QB falls past pick 3 before making a trade up).

Well said. Agreed. And while I think we are missing many pieces to be a truly great team, QB is by far the biggest hole and it has been since Jim Kelly retired (man, I miss watching the K gun offense!). We are FAR past our time to see another great QB in a Bills uniform, and the thought of having to potentially wait even longer sucks. To to be honest, like many others, I really had my heart set on getting one of the top 2 QBs this year. I still hope it's possible but it's probably less likely with the ridiculous price it took NY to get from 6 to 3. But what hat gives me hope is that the strength of this QB draft has always been in its depth. The top 3/4 look great but none are what you call "can't miss" types. Granted, i'd rather take the gamble on one of the top 2. But there's definitely a chance, especially this year, that QB 4-6 could end up being one of the top QBs in this draft. The good part - if you spend 1 pick on one of these other QBs and miss, it's sets the franchise back WAY less than if you spend an entire draft + more on trading up and miss on that QB. Ans Id you only spend 1 (or maybe 2 with a slight trade up) pick on QB, you can hopefully fill 4-5 other BIG holes on this team (like our LBs, O line, D line, Wide receivers, RB etc etc).

Or it makes the Jets look reckless. They havent even had a chance to bring any of these QBs in for a visit, sit with them extensively and work them out privately. They've met them for 15 mins each at the combine. They are said to be comfortable with any of the top 4 QBs in this draft (and clearly any of the top 3 since they traded to 3 and may only get the 3rd QB off the board). That sounds like a team willing to randomly throw a dart at one of the QBs this year and hope it sticks. Give me me a calculating GM who thoroughly vets all his possible QB prospects before trading away the farm for the most important position on the field and a guy you want to be the face of your franchise for the next decade plus.

Maybe the better question is - Were the Jets too reckless in trading up right now? They gave up a whole lot to only guarantee themselves the 3rd QB off the board. They haven't even attended all the QBs pro days yet, or had ANY of the QBs in for a visit and private workout. They haven't had a chance yet to sit down with these QBs and talk extensively. As far as I know, they've only met with each for 15 mins at the combine. From the sounds of it (MMQB article), the Jets decided to go all in on this QB draft last year. MacCagnan sold Woody Johnson on doing whatever it took to get 1 of the top 4 QBs this year. They are supposedly comfortable with any of the top 4 (which is reckless in itself IMO). That makes me think they did try and tank this season like many suspected. IMO That also sounds like the GM's job probably depends on getting a top QB from this draft. If thats the case, it's not usually a good thing to try and go toe to toe with a guy recklessly doing whatever it takes to get a top 4 QB this year because his job may depend on it. Or at best, it sounds like a GM who is perfectly comfortable just throwing a dart at 1 of 4 random QBs and hoping he hits. Id rather have a more calculating GM who is going to really think out his moves and make sure he's 100% comfortable with trading the farm for a specific QB.

You are forgetting that if we don't trade up we have 5 picks in the top 65 and 6 in top top 90 to fill a bunch of holes on this team. If they hit on this draft like they did last year's, that could fill a lot of holes quite solidly. Also, AJ McCarron has a pretty low turnover rate in his career, too. He threw 5, 3 and 7 int's in his 3 respective college seasons, and 2 int's in pass 133 attempts in the NFL (which is obviously a very small sample size). For comparison, Tyrod threw 2 int's in 35 attempts in his Baltimore career before coming to Buffalo. And Tyrod threw a very similar amount of int's per season in college (3, 7, 5, 5) All I am saying is that it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we plug a bunch of holes in the draft, giving us a stronger overall team than last year, and McCarron, who was a much more accomplished college QB than Tyrod, was drafted in a similar spot (AJ in the 5th vs Tyrod in the 6th), and sat on the bench learning for the same 4 years TT did, could come in and play as well as Tyrod did here. Or maybe even better, especially as far as the passing game is concerned.

Exactly. People are acting like just because we didn't trade to #3 the Bills have no chance of finding a franchise QB anymore. It's ridiculous. We could very well take a QB at 12 or 22 or even 53/56/65 and he could turn out to be better than whatever QB is taken at 3. We have no idea until it all plays out in a few years. Everyone seems to think any one of the top 3 QBs this year are can't miss. I don't see it that way. I see the top 2 (Darnold/Rosen) as the 2 most sure bets, and all the rest as a crap shoot. Even Darnold and Rosen are a crap shoot. There isn't any can't miss QBs this year. There are some very enticing prospects, but the real strength of this QB draft is in its depth. I don't think the difference between Mayfield/Allen and Rudolph/Jackson/White/Lauletta etc is FOUR top 49 picks... (and it would have actually cost the Bills even more than what the Jets gave up - likely 2 1sts, 2 2nds and a 3rd) Very well could be. I had been really hoping for Rosen/Darnold. But Id take a shot on Allen at 12. Hes definitely boom or bust, but man if he hits you are set! His ceiling is sky high IMO. Im pretty open to whatever QB we draft at this point. I'll trust Beane and co., who are paid big bucks to do this for a living, over my own amateur tv and YouTube scouting.

I don't see this as true. I think Cleveland was likely taking a QB at 1 all along. Jimmy Haslam gave John Dorsey the mandate to find a franchise QB no matter what, ans he said this to the media. He said it was Dorsey's #1 priority. And even in your scenario where the Browns pass on a QB at one - if the Bills had traded to 3 instead of the Jets, that would still force Cleveland's hand the exact same way the Jets trade did. Worse yet, it may have forced another team's hand in a trade to #2, leaving the Bills with the 3rd QB off the board after giving up a giant haul of picks. The #3 pick was always in play. The Colts had planned on trading down all offseason. If it wasn't the Jets, it would have been someone else. Our best chance at our QB has always been a trade to the #2 pick. The way I feel, only the top 2 QBs this year are worth trading a draft's worth of picks for. I'd rather give up more and guarantee that we get one of those 2 QBs than to give up most of our draft capital to trade to 3 and then miss out on both of those top QBs. Herea another scenario - a Cleveland takes Darnold at 1. Giants take Barkley at 2. Jets take Allen at 3, leaving Rosen at 4. We trade up with Cleveland and save ourselves some picks. Or our target is Mayfield, he slips past 5 and we trade with a team around 6-9 and save even more. There are still lots of potential scenarios that could play out. It's not all doom and gloom...

I figure we'd have to offer something like both 1sts, both 2nds and our lower 3rd this year to match the Jets offer. Then add in the Colts going from 3 to 12, instead of 3 to 6, and you're probably going to have to sweeten the pot a little more. And that is only to guarantee yourself the 3rd QB off the board. It's not a guarantee of getting one of the top 2 QBs. I have a hard time believeing the 3rd QB off the board this year is worth all that.

You forgot to add in the Jets 2nd round pick next year.

I don't think 12, 22 and a 2019 1st would be anywhere near enough to get to #2. Not when you look at the draft value charts, and especially what the Jets just gave up. The #2 pick is worth 2600. Our two 1sts this year are worth 1980. Picks in next year's draft are said to be worth 1 round lower - so a 1st is worth a 2nd - so somewhere between 270 and 580 points. So say 425 points which is the middle. 1980 + 425 = 2405. We are still 200 points short of giving them back equal value. They will want more than equal value. The Jets gave up 600 extra draft points to move up 3 spots, and the Colts only moved back to 6. What do you think it'll tak to move up from 12 to 2? My best guess when looking at the draft pick value charts is this - both 1sts, both 2nds, both 3rds this year = 3071 points. Which is 471 extra points. Jets gave up roughly 600 extra draft points, and most all of those draft points are in this year's draft (1st and 2 of the 3 2nds). So you probably have to add in a 2nd next year. So the final trade would look like (to give similar value to what the Jets just gave) - Two 1sts Two 2nds Two 3rds this year + 2nd next year for #2 this year. Maybe you can keep a couple picks this year if you're willing to give up a couple picks next year. But the Giants might want back picks that are 1 round higher if we push them off to next year (so to keep a 2nd this year it'll cost a 1st next year or something like that). https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=BUF feel free to play around with the values yourselves. The link above is the draft value chart. And here's another supposed updated version. Both come out with about the same cost for the Bills when looking at the Jets trade up. https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

I've said for months now that it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Josh Allen was the guy that Maccagnan really wanted, and who the Jets targeted in the draft. After all, Maccagnan is the guy who fell in love with Christian Hackenberg... And Allen does somewhat remind me of Hackenberg in numerous ways - Both are the prototypical sized QB you look for. Allen is 6'5", Hack is 6'4". Both have big hands. Both have very strong arms. Both struggled with their accuracy at times while flashing elite potential at others. both have very similar stats their draft year - both threw 16 TDs and 6 int., had similar comp. %'s, y/a and QB ratings. And both are big time boom or bust prospects. If you hit on either, you're set. Their ceiling is very enticing... Hack was a big reach at the top of the 2nd and Allen (IMO) would be a reach at 3. It could happen! Ultimately, I think moving to #3 could have also altered their target a bit. They could have thought Allen was their best shot at 6, but now think they have a shot at the top 2 QBs. So I think it could depend on what happens at 1 and 2. I think they may have a hard time passing on Rosen if he's still on the board. Although, just a thought on Rosen/Jets - is there any possible way Woody Johnson would nix a Rosen pick? With Johnson being good friends with Trump and appointed an ambassador by him? I highly doubt it would factor in in any way, but hey it sure would be nice if they passed on him for such a dumb reason like that, right?!

So far we know that 1 poster was actually serious in his yes vote, and about 3 or 4 others voted yes just because they thought the question was ridiculous. What about the rest of you "yes" voters? Anyone else willing to admit they were serious with their yes vote? lol Yup, Beane should definitely be fired 6 weeks before his first draft here, since he was not able to control the actions of 2 other NFL GMs. And since the Jets trading to 3 clearly makes it impossible for Beane to ever land his franchise QB... may as well move on to the next GM now. We need to hire us a Jedi, so he can mind trick em! Or, being more realistic, maybe some kind of spy from a government agency who can capture all these other GMs and give them heavy doses of LSD for months on end until they are brainwashed into doing what we want. ? I mean, We obviously need a GM who can control the actions of every other GM around the NFL, and can solve our franchise QB problem long before his first draft as the Bills GM, right! Come on Pegula, what are you doing?