BillsFan4

I mostly agree with Ty Dunne's point. But of the QBs he listed - Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Prescott - the Bills only really had a legit chance at 3 - Watson, Mahomes and Prescott. McDermott or Beane weren't here for Prescott, and Beane wasn't here for Mahomes, Watson. as for Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Darnold... we don't know what type of shot we have at them yet. If QBs go 1, 2, 3 (to the Browns, Giants, Jets) we may only have a legit shot at QB #4. If the Browns are unwilling to trade 4 and the Broncos take a QB at 5, then they are totally shut out and you can't really blame Beane too much for it. But I feel pretty confident that if Beane's QB(s) makes it past 3 they will be doing everything they can to move up to 4, 5, 6, 7 to grab him.

Agreed. A trade up to #3 on draft day, with the guy you want sitting there for the taking? Absolutely sign me up. But 6 weeks before the draft, with no idea if the guy you really want will even be there? Eh... How many teams are willing to give up 4 top 49 picks to trade up to the top of the draft, just to basically throw a dart at 1 of 3 random QBs? Especially 6 weeks before the draft, which is before they've even had a chance to work out these QBs privately, have them in for a visit, meet with and interview them extensively etc etc. At the point the Jets traded for 3, they had only met with what, 2-3 QBs for 15 minutes at the senior bowl/scouting combine? (I know they scouted them all year, but still, you are not allowed to have your scouts talk to the players during their college season). I mean, don't get me wrong. I want the Bills GM to be aggressive in finding our franchise QB. But the Jets move just comes off as a GM who is willing to bet his job and the Jets next half decade on a random pick of any top QB from this draft. That doesn't seem like the move of a GM I'd want running my team.

Yes, there are numerous posters who deserve mention in this thread. I am still relatively new here (about 1 and 1/2 seasons so far), so I am still learning who's good at what. I was was blown away by GunnerBill's QB prospects thread. His evaluation was better than most of the actual draft analysts i read. Bandit did some some great work in that regard too. It was very informative, and so cool that he took the time to post so much film, break down exactly what he was seeing and post the time stamps of where he was seeing it on the video. Astro's training camp thread this past season was phenomenal. The work all 3 put in to just give it away to us for free on this board is beyond appreciated. Thank you Gunner, Bandit and Astro! (I already thanked Yolo and 26 and I am sure there are more I am forgetting. So glad I found this message board!)

I agree. I read that they are comfortable with any of the top 4 QBs in this draft. I also read that Maccagnan sold Woody Johnson on doing whatever it took to get one of the top 4 QBs in this class over a year ago. There is no way that they had properly scouted and vetted those QBs when they put this plan into action over a year ago. That is another reason why I say the trade up to 3 was a desperate move. I feel that Maccagnan's job likely depended on landing one of the top 4 QBs in this draft class.

Sure, I guess. If you believe there is no difference between the top 3 QBs and that each one of them is worth 4 top 49 picks (I don't, but I am not a professional scout). How many drafts have there been over the last 40+ years where 3 QBs at the top of the draft have been worth that type of trade up? 1983. 2004. I can't think of any more off hand. And only in 2004 did the best 3 QBs go in the top 10, and as the first 3 QBs off the board. In 1983 three QBs went in between Kelly and Marino (Blackledge went before Kelly, and Eason + O'Brien went before Marino) Odds are are pretty damn high against the top 3 QBs in this class being worth 4 top picks, and against the best 3 QBs being the first 3 off the board.

Fully agree with this. Everyone's suddenly a professional scout at this time of year... lol. I wont lie. I am the most scared of Allen, too. Especially in a trade up. I want Rosen or Darnold. But it I am not going to act like I am some professional QB scout or talent evaluator, and pretend that I know more than the people who get paid to do this for a living - guys who spend decades in this field. Guys who watch every single throw these QBs have ever made, who dig deeper into these prospects backgrounds than we can even imagine. And I am certainly not going to sharpen my pitchfork and/or write the kid off before he's ever even taken a snap for the Bills. Allen may have the most upside of any QB in this draft, and there's definitely good reason why he's being discussed among the top QBs. Im still hoping for Darnold or Rosen but I will definitely find reasons to get excited if Allen is the pick. ultimately, I will support whoever the Bills draft and give him every chance to prove he's our guy.

Ive asked this question a couple times already - Can anyone name a team that has traded up to #3 that far in advance before the draft? (6 weeks). I can't name one. Theres a reason it's almost unheard of... I still think it was a somewhat reckless trade by the Jets. They have no clue what will happen at 1 and 2. They may have given up all that just to get QB 3 on their board. Are they really in love with 3 separate QBs in this draft? What are the chance 3 QBs in this class are worth that haul of picks? Seems like a desperate move by a desperate GM IMO. I'd much rather have my GM identify their guy, not take a random shot at any one of 3 QBs.

Definitely appreciate all that 26 and Yolo do. Thank you both for all the breaking news and Bills info you rovide to this board! It is very much appreciated.

Yeah Rosen is definitely your prototypical pocket passer. Personally, I tend to prefer pocket passers though (especially ones who can pick you apart from the pocket like Rosen). I honestly believe that his concussion risk can be limited in the NFL though. I already mentioned the o line, his pocket movement skills that will continue to improve and adding some weight onto his big 6' 4" frame. But I also think good coaching will limit the concussion risk too. His concussion in the Washington game was a direct result of him trying to do way too much himself. He was unwilling to give up on plays when they broke down. Instead of throwing the ball away or taking the short gain, he was continually trying to extend plays too long and go for the big gains. It led to 4 big sacks, and the final one resulted in a concussion. This isn't all that uncommon among college QBs, especially those with less talent around them on offense. I think he will likely be more willing to let his receivers make plays in the NFL. And If he's coached (better) to stay within the confines of the offense, as well as when to throw the ball away (etc), I think it will make all the difference in the world. He's more than capable of quickly reading a defense and making quick decisions. Ultimately though, Mobile QBs are at just as much injury risk as pocket passers. Look at all the mobile QBs that have had severe injuries over the years. Trying to scramble and run can/will put a QB at just as much (or more) risk as standing in the pocket and taking a hit. We have see plenty of injuries to both types of QBs over the years. And yes, mobile QBs may be able to avoid some trouble Rosen won't be able to. But they will also put themselves in injury risk situations (by running/scrambling/playing outside the pocket) that a pocket QB like Rosen won't. I guess it all boils down to whether to or not you think Rosen himself is injury prone, or if you think it was bad luck and circumstance. I tend to lean toward the latter. But I will trust that Beane and his scouting staff did the proper research.

Rosen is more mobile than he is given credit for. He's not a mobile QB by any means, but he is not a statue either. He is also very good at moving inside the pocket and will only get better. I believe the NFL also has more rules in place to protect QBs than college does. Remember, Mayfield also had 2 concussions in college and they were a direct result of the way he plays. Like you said, build a good o line around Rosen and you limit that risk (which, as you also said, will have to be a priority). Where as with Mayfield's style of play, as with many mobile QBs who like to play outside the pocket, it will be hard to just build a good o line around them to limit injury risk. We seen young 2 mobile QBs (who are just at the start of their careers) go down with injury just this season alone - Wentz and Watson. I am not saying that Rosen's injuries are not a concern. They are. Just not enough to scare me off. I see just as much, or more, injury risk in QBs like Mayfield, Jackson etc due to their play styles.

How can anyone possibly even answer this question yet? We havent training camp. Or preseason, let alone any regular season games yet. So we haven't even seen any teams offensive line on the field yet. We haven't even had the draft yet... (and its supposed to be a good draft for interior linemen and centers (to some degree)). As of now we dont even know if the guys we have we have penciled in now will even be the Bills starters when the season begins. Beane very well could draft 2 O-linemen that earn starting jobs, and/or sign some veteran guys when team trim down their rosters.

I know during his 2 years here, Rex was personally taking pictures of all the draft eligible players feet when they came in on their visits. I'm not sure if that policy left with him or not, though.

That press conference was weird. Gronk thinks he's a comedian... I think all those gratuitous laughs he gets from reporters at his press conferences are going to his head... lol anyone catch that "unsportsmanlike comedy with rob gronkowski"? He did a little stand up on that show. I personally thought it was kinda dumb, but that's just me.

Rosen would be my 1st choice, assuming they vet him and are comfortable with his character/injury history. If they have serious questions about Rosen, then I'd say take Darnold. Ultimately, id be absolutely thrilled with either one!

I thought maybe they'd move Culley to WR coach when McGeoghan left, but obviously that didn't happen. Then I just recently read that the whole reason Culley came here was specifically to improve his NFL resume by adding QB coach to it. So I don't think he will be changing job titles any time soon.

Jerk! lol That made my heart drop into my stomach...

If this leak actually came from the Bills organization, maybe it is Beane trying to put pressure on Gettleman to take his offer for 2. Or or maybe it's true. Or or maybe it's just a BS rumor... Cant wait for Thursday. I've never has draft fatigue like like I do this year.

If the Browns go With Allen #1, I have to believe the Jets take Darnold at 3 (if the Giants don't take him).

I am sure Cleveland fans will be impressed by Tyrod's drive and work ethic. I know I was very impressed by it when Tyrod first got here. I wish him well in Cleveland. I think he could do well there, and hope he does. He definitely has weapons on offense. I feel pretty safe saying that Cleveland will definitely win more than 1 game this year! lol

Totally agree. But, a long 9 days, actually. The 1st round of the draft on the 26th, and then the NHL draft lottery on the evening of the 28th... Can you even imagine if the Bills get one of the top QBs AND the Sabres win the draft lottery (Dahlin sweepstakes)?! I would be beyond happy. I can't even put it into words... lol.

I hear ya man! One week to go... I'm trying to hang in there. lol As excited as I am about draft day, I know I am going to be a total nervous wreck, especially as the teams start going on the clock. You think? I would be thrilled if it only cost two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd to get to #2 overall. We'd still have two 1sts this year, two 2nds, a 3rds, 4th, 5th, 6th

I see Mayfield as having just as many, or more, questions as Rosen. He also had at least 3 concussions that I am aware of (he had 2 in 3 weeks in college, and even after that said he would not change his play style to better protect against injury). I just feel like with Rosen, you can maybe at least help limit the injury risks. You build a good o line around him and you can limit the risks more so than with Mayfield, who's game will always include a lot of play outside the pocket. I also think Rosen has the frame to be able to bulk up once he gets proper training and diet from NFL staffs. Plus it's worth mentioning that the NFL does a very good job protecting their QBs with the rules, more so than in college. They both have their personality concerns. But Mayfield has legitimate off field concerns too, having been arrested & trying to run away from the police. Where as Rosen doesn't have anything like that in his history. Hes never bene in any legal trouble. And Allen may not have the same personality or off field concerns, but his play on the field has a lot more red flags IMO. The the way I see it, every one of these top QBs has their legitimate question marks. I guess we just have to trust that Beane fully vetted whoever he ends up drafting. Great! If that allows him to drop to the Bills, that would be amazing. I could care care less about the politics of my QB, or any player for that matter. It doesn't factor into my evaluation at all. I think it's incredibly dumb to pass on such a gifted QB prospect over something like this. I just don't see why it should matter. I just hope the Bills feel the same way... lol.

My best guess would be having studied different player comparables and data points/statistics, contract details, injury history, scheme fits, cap implications, possible on and off field issues... stuff like that. Here's an interesting read on some of the stuff that goes into contract negotiations (it's an inside look at Sherman's deal with the 49ers) - https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/12/richard-sherman-san-francisco-49ers-john-lynch-mmqb-peter-king

I don't know how many more "moving up" rumors I can take at this point. One week to go. One week to go. One week to go...

Great stuff bandit. Thanks for taking the time to do this.