BillsFan4

Its also wrong to say “we did nothing” about those other pandemics. We took action early. We let the CDC lead and do their thing. SARS timeline (CDC): https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm - March 12th WHO issues global alert on SARS. - March 14th: CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC). - March 15th: CDC issued a health alert notice and travel warnings. -March 17th: CDC holds 1st briefing on SARS. 14 cases in the US. -March 20th: CDC issues infection control precautions for aerosol-generating procedures on patients who are suspected of having SARS. -within 2 weeks of WHO alert, the CDC begins utilizing pandemic planning for SARS. (screening, tracing & quarantine) - within 15 days of the WHO global alert: ”CDC quarantine staff began meeting planes, cargo ships and cruise ships coming either directly or indirectly to the United States from China, Singapore and Vietnam and also begins distributing health alert cards to travelers.” - April 3rd: team of international infectious disease experts arrives in Guangdong province to investigate the outbreak (including US experts). - April 4th: President George W. Bush adds SARS to the list of quarantinable diseases, which gives the CDC the authority to isolate persons who might have been exposed to the disease. - by May 6th we had successfully contained it’s spread in the US. But SARS was nowhere near the scale of covid 19. There were only 9000 cases globally and less than 800 total deaths. The United States had less than 40 total cases. We’ve been averaging 1000+ deaths PER DAY, every day for months with covid 19. Covid 19 seems to clearly transmit much easier than SARS. I believe the viral load with SARS peaked much later vs Covid 19 (more infectious later vs earlier with covid) and the symptoms were more pronounced (easier to tell if you had SARS). We took similar actions with other pandemics too. I don’t feel like doing complete timelines for all of them. Here’s a link to the timeline for swine flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html quick highlights: -tested over 1 million within the first month -issued public health emergency -asked congress early for $1.5B to fight the virus - closed schools for 14 days if a single case of h1n1 was found -980 schools were dismissed in May alone -anti-viral drugs released to treat h1n1 - FDA approves 4 h1n1 vaccines in Sept. -1st doses of vaccine released in US by October. Big differences: we had established treatments for influenza already in place (like anti viral drugs). We had more immunity built up to influenza. We had a vaccine by October. The mortality rate for swine flu was 0.02%. We only lost 12,600 total. Our hospitals weren’t being overwhelmed like with covid 19. Once again, not really at all comparable to covid 19. We only had 2 cases of MERS in the US, but it was still monitored closely: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/us.html We never had any (human) cases of bird flu in the US: https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/have-humans-in-the-united-states-ever-contracted-bird-flu

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200611/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos ‘Fired scientist Rebekah Jones builds coronavirus dashboard to rival Florida’s’

Here’s a collection of research papers on pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread I put together for @Hapless Bills Fan https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737 SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0198_article Potential Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Singapore https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32091386/ Potential Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020 https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30114-6.pdf Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001899 Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32329971/ Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/ Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e1.htm Asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in residents of a long-term care skilled nursing facility, king county WA. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/ Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections With COVID-19 Screened Among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html Covid 19 clinical care guidance (CDC) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32243729/ The Isolation Period Should Be Longer: Lesson From a Child Infected With SARS-CoV-2 in Chongqing, China https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1684118220301134 A Systematic Review of Asymptomatic Infections With COVID-19 https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Citation/9000/Prolonged_Viral_RNA_Shedding_Duration_in_COVID_19.98280.aspx

https://fair.org/home/are-people-getting-sick-staying-home-alone-thats-not-what-a-misinterpreted-survey-said/ Are People Getting Sick Staying Home Alone? That’s Not What a Misinterpreted Survey Said Edit - from the CNBC article in question: “If you isolate, if you take the precautions, your family won’t get infected” said Cuomo.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/09/872441984/modelers-suggest-pandemic-lockdowns-saved-millions-from-dying-of-covid-19 “Two new papers published in the journal Nature say that lockdowns put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus were highly effective, prevented tens of millions of infections and saved millions of lives.” From May: Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-successful-evidence-from-around-the-world-2020-4 Lockdowns save lives. The evidence is clear around the world.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051417v2.full.pdf From Hapless’s boy, Trevor Bedford (and many other authors). This paper is from a while back. Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State

Congrats! Edit - ordered a copy! Don’t know when I’ll get the chance to read it though, but I definitely will as soon as I can.

@Hapless Bills Fan this is your post from the facts thread. I just had a quick question and didn’t want to clog up the other thread. Definitely very encouraging! By any chance do you know how those 2x a day health checks were done? Was it in person? Or over the phone? Also, do you know if they screened for all potential symptoms? Like the less common and/or unusual symptoms? Or just the more common stuff like fever, cough, loss of smell etc?

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/pilut-signs-two-year-deal-with-traktor-chelyabinsk-in-khl Well, that sucks. If we still qualify him, I believe we will at least hold onto his rights for a few years.

Here: The relative risk with zinc use was 1.23 (95%CI, 0.82 to 1.83) The relative risk with vitamin C use was 1.60 (95%CI, 1.12 to 2.28). This observational comparisons may suffer from confounding by indication, in that those who deemed themselves at highest risk of developing infection may have been more likely to additionally take either zinc or vitamin C. Regardless, there was no suggestion that zinc added to hydroxychloroquine had additional benefit. Among those randomized to hydroxychloroquine, those taking zinc had a 15.0% incidence of new Covid-19 versus 10.8% incidence of new Covid-19 without self-reported zinc use. Zinc has received a great deal of attention as a potential adjunctive therapy to be used with hydroxychloroquine. A 2014 in vitro study by Xue et al. used human ovarian carcinoma cell culture to examine the interaction of chloroquine and ionic zinc.4 Xue found that chloroquine acts as a zinc ionophore, increasing cellular uptake of zinc in culture media and increasing the cytotoxic effect of chloroquine to cause the death of cancer cells at levels 30-fold higher than what would be achieved in plasma with our trial’s dosing.4,5 Importantly, this lab experiment was not designed to emulate zinc levels in the average human body, but in a cell culture media which started with minimal zinc. North Americans have a very low prevalence of inadequate dietary zinc intake (<15% prevalence).6 Based on this sub-group analysis, we found no evidence of supplementary zinc intake had any effect on incidence of new Covid-19 compatible illness after high-risk exposure. The exact details of zinc formulation, dose, and duration were not queried, so this is not conclusive information. It is on page 14 here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638/suppl_file/nejmoa2016638_appendix.pdf

@Hapless Bills Fan it’s not a big deal or anything. I don’t want you to have to put a bunch of time + effort into explaining it. I understand why it can take 4+ weeks.

https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html [Edit: I would still like to know what "particular studies" she refers to in her clarification. If they're there, give us a list! What's so hard here?]

https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html

Yesterday was the perfect type of weather for me here in WNY - sunny and about 70. Not too hot, not too cold. Today and tomorrow (high 80’s/low ‘90’s) are going to suck. Anything much over 75 (and definitely over 80) is getting too hot for me. I lived in northern Florida for a few years. Winters were nice, but Summer was absolutely *&$#*&$ brutal there. My shoes actually melted to the blacktop once. I don’t understand how that type of heat is enjoyable for anyone. I didn’t want to leave the air conditioning. My apartment was insanely hot even with the central air. It was a crappy old military complex that had been turned into apartments though. They had no insulation, and it was in direct sunlight all day. The central a/c unit died and they had to come out and replace it. They accidentally brought the wrong unit (it was meant for a commercial building. I had a 2 bedroom apt.) but I was able to talk them into installing it. Even with that thing, I had to keep the a/c running constantly during the day to keep the apartment tolerable. I’m sure most of that had to do with the apartment itself though. I also lived in the Bay Area of CA (Santa Clara). Now that’s my type of weather!

https://www.nhl.com/news/phase-2-begins-with-voluntary-workouts/c-317114274 “NHL teams begin voluntary workouts as part of Phase 2” ‘Oilers, Islanders, Golden Knights open rinks, facilities in next step of Return to Play Plan‘

Yes, I am. Thanks.

- each team must have a detailed plan for dealing with any covid outbreaks. 2 separate plans. 1 for when facilities first start opening and 20 or less people are there, and one for when more than 20 people are there. - there will be numerous restricted areas of the facilities. They will assign employees tiers of clearance. Only tier 1+2 are allowed in the restricted areas (areas where players will be, mainly). - as players and essential personnel return (coaches, etc) they will be isolated from other employees with: separate entrances, automated doors (etc) to reduce touch points. -areas players use must be designated as restricted. - daily screening for all essential personnel that includes testing where applicable & a questionnaire. - Then some stuff about physical distancing protocols in the lunch room, locker rooms, weight room, around the facilities etc, stuff about all the different cleaning/sanitizing protocols, etc. There’s too much detail to cover it all. - all players must wear masks while inside the facility. - clubs must maintain at least a 2 week supply of n95 masks (must be nice to be able to get them so easily...), gloves, face shields, gowns, goggles. -gloves and other PPE required for staff - lots of hand sanitizer - NFL will strictly enforce compliance with all protocols.

For those now saying the lockdowns in the US were unnecessary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/ “Shutdown prevented 60 million coronavirus infections, new study finds”. 2 different studies were published on the lockdowns in the US, UK, Europe and China. 1st one: the University of California at Berkeley researchers estimate stay at home orders, business closings and travel bans ended up preventing 285 million infections in China and 60 million cases in the US. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf 2nd one: researchers at Imperial College in London estimated shutdowns saved more than three million lives in 11 European countries and dropped infection rates by more than 80-percent. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7

I was just coming to post this. Congrats! https://www.axios.com/new-zealand-no-coronavirus-cases-covid-19-free-1f209ae3-46e5-4343-b076-189bde8c3953.html Just shows you what early widespread testing and lockdowns can do. They acted very quickly to stop this virus and it paid off Big time.

From NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/05/871102763/new-coronavirus-hot-spots-emerge-across-south-and-in-california-as-northeast-slo “New Coronavirus Hot Spots Emerge Across South And In California, As Northeast Slows”