HappyDays

Allen had just had an MVP level year when we extended him, and he's a QB. White was elite almost from day one. Those are completely different conversations. The players we just gave big extensions to are good not great players at slot WR, LB, and run stopping EDGE. In a vacuum that does not demonstrate good value. The best positive example you can point to is Spencer Brown who was also a good not great player at a less premium position. Beane was right about him, he ascended further and looks like a steal. I think Beane needs to be right about 2 out of 3 of these recent signings. If we're paying them for what they've done then collectively it is a massive overpay.

If the Bills want to make this extension look good they need to add a legit pass rusher across from him. That will go a long way in telling us if Rousseau's mediocre sack production is because of his own deficiencies or because the players around him haven't been good enough to let his talent shine. I think there's a bit too much emphasis being placed on Rousseau's youth and supposed ceiling. He just finished his 4th year. You don't see a lot of players take off in their 5th year and beyond. The conversation reminds me of Tremaine Edmunds, not that I'm saying this contract is anything close to the horrible contract Chicago gave him, it just gives me the same feeling.

Here's my question for you and anyone else who loves this extension - if Rousseau remains exactly the player he has been, do you think he is worth this money? For me the answer is a hard no. I would guess the Bills feel similarly. They are betting that he is going to improve. For all the advanced stats that rank him higher than his production would indicate, he has maxed out at 8 sacks. Even with the exploding salary cap I don't believe 8 sack players are worth $20M AAV.

Hopefully. So far the examples we have are Knox who turned out to be a massive overpay, Oliver who I would say we about broke even on and are still hoping for more, and Brown who looks like a great bargain. So we are 1 for 3 in this sort of move ending up as you say.

Because of the cap space it will take up in 2026 and beyond. This extension I at least understand, unlike Bernard where I was confused about the rush to get it done. Rousseau at his best shuts down his entire side of the field in the run game. If they can get a legit pass rusher across from him he could be a piece in a very good DL. I just don't like that we are now paying a lot of pieces like they're studs. Obviously we need to see what Beane is able to do when FA starts to really judge these moves. Right now I get the sense they are playing it very safe, aggressively maintaining the status quo. I hope they have left themselves enough resources to add at least one top tier talent because that's what we've been missing.

I don't know. It's lower than he could have gotten. But now we're spending a fortune on players that disappear in critical moments. I think they needed to be willing to shake up the roster and instead they're running it back. They have to be right about these extensions. They're betting on several players to be a lot better than they have been. These contracts are going to prevent us from signing established game changers. So these players need to become game changers.

I wonder if our 2026 1st would get it done? They might value next year's draft pick more than this year since it's supposed to be a great QB class.

My thoughts were we could afford to re-sign one of Benford and Rousseau (I lean Benford) and one of Shakir, Cook, Bernard (I leaned Shakir). Extending too many good not great players, especially at non-premium positions, eventually catches up to you. That's my issue with this deal. Every year there is a player or two that we could really use to sign in FA or trade for and we can't afford them because of deals like this.

So we have the necessary draft capital. It just depends on if Cincy is willing to send him to a conference rival.

Bernard was under contract another year. We didn't need to do anything other than let him play out the season and see what happens. If he stays healthy and has a great year and earns a big FA contract from some other team in 2026 you live with it... he's just a LB, one with an extensive injury history. The potential downside of extending a player like him early is a lot worse than the potential downside of letting it play out.

I hope so. The guaranteed money is low enough that it's possible. That would be the one saving grace. That AAV is really shockingly high though. I can't imagine any other team out there giving him that kind of value. It's the opposite of a hometown discount.

Hmm not a fan of this at all. We'll see what the actual contract looks like I guess. Paying a small injury prone player at a non-premium position coming off a down year is just not good business. I'm getting a bit worried that their mindset this offseason is "run it back." That can't be the plan. There needs to be an infusion of more high end talent which is going to be a challenge when we're paying good not great players.

Here's Banged Up Bills' injury analysis on him: There is a somewhat concerning history of neck injuries. The article compares it to Micah Hyde. If you trade for him you're probably expecting just 2-3 good years of production so it wouldn't scare me away too much if our medical staff's evaluation checked out.

Don't get me wrong I'd be happy with trading for Hendrickson if Metcalf falls through. Sounds like a 2nd would get it done. What I like about Hendrickson is he's a complete a**hole of a player. I hate playing against him because he plays dirty. And we need some of that nastiness on the roster. But ultimately Cincy will have multiple options and since they control the destination I have to think they'll ship him out of conference if at all possible. Washington makes a lot of sense.

I can't imagine Cincy trading him to an AFC contender.

A somewhat deflating piece of info is that it sounds like he would prefer a warm weather city: So if say the Chargers want him they'd have the advantage. This doesn't necessarily rule us out but it cools my hopes a bit.

For anyone who thinks $30M is too much for Metcalf or that the pendulum has swung away from WR value: $10M fully guaranteed for a guy that didn't break 600 yards last year. True game changers are going to get eye popping numbers and you just have to live with that if you want high caliber talent on your roster.

Are we sure about that? Allen throwing deep to Amari Cooper looked pretty damn good on the few occasions where it happened, and that's an over the hill downfield WR. I've felt for a while that Metcalf is the platonic ideal of a WR that goes well with Allen's skill set and he's still well in his prime.

They aren't getting a 1st and a 3rd, this is just standard hardball negotiating through the media. But if I had to part with our 1st I would do it. As usual fans are way overvaluing 1st round draft picks, especially with where we are picking. Other than Allen there isn't one 1st round pick Beane has made that I wouldn't trade for Metcalf. Funny enough the second best use he's made of a 1st round pick was when he traded for Diggs. The time is right to make an identical move. Look at the last two drafts - Addison and BTJ were taken before we had a realistic chance to get them so we had to settle for lesser prospects. Metcalf being available gives us a rare opportunity to not settle. Take the top tier player in his prime and don't look back.

Only speaking for myself - I defended Brown when others wanted him benched or wanted us to draft a RT high. I thought his physical upside was worth being patient and I saw signs of a future good player even when he was struggling. Kincaid however I am leaning towards wanting to trade him if we could get a 3rd rounder (or as part of a package for Metcalf if it came to that) because I just don't see NFL traits there, unfortunately. Physically and mentally I don't see a player that will ever be more than decent. He'll be 26 in October so I think he's pretty close to maxed out on his abilities. So I would sell high. Of course I expect us to keep him so hopefully I'm wrong. The injury excuse doesnt really do it for me but I could buy that the game will slow down for him in his 3rd year.

He played so well they had a barely rosterable player ahead of him all through the playoffs.

I would honestly be interested if he gets paid what he should, which is a 1 year prove it deal for a low-mid tier cost. I just have no clue what his market will be like. Is someone like New England or Washington going to way overpay him just because they can?

At first glance a 3rd seems startlingly low. But this is a good point from one of the reporters that initially broke the rumor: If all we need to blow other offers out of the water is giving up one of our 2nds it's a no brainer. We'll have effectively traded over the hill Diggs for in his prime Metcalf. In that scenario the draft pick is practically a non-factor in my mind, it's really just about the money at that point.

Honestly why not both? Metcalf as the long term extension with an artificially low 2025 cap hit, Adams as the more expensive in 2025 one year stopgap for the #2 role while we wait to see how Coleman develops. Get the WR room set and then go all in on rebuilding the defense in the draft. In Metcalf we're talking about a perennial 1,000 yard WR who has also produced at a high level in the playoffs. If that's overrated what does that say about our current WR room?