HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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2 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Not a terrible deal for the Rams.
I think it's a really terrible deal. They owe him $8.5 million this year, then he's going to want to get paid next year. And their first pick this year is #87 overall. In 2 years they'll have terrible depth and no cap space.
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Les Snead is crazy. Every freaking week he's shedding draft picks and cap space.
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37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
The NFL doesn't do that because of cost. They'd have to expand the rosters or the practice squad, and if there'd have to be a way to protect a guy like Allen on the practice squad. And he'd want a lot of money. It is largely a sink or swim situation.
Well the Packers were able to do it without any issues. I think teams are just too impatient. I don't watch too much hockey but I know in the NHL it's expected that many of your draft picks will not play for a couple years. The Sabres drafted a player in the 1st round who had just graduated high school. Windows in the NFL are so small so teams aren't willing to try that, but the one time they did they got Aaron Rodgers so I'm surprised it isn't tried more.
I do wonder how much depends on the right team drafting you but I generally agree that it doesn't make a difference most of the time. And I don't know if the accuracy issues that Allen has could be corrected in any amount of time. I've seen some people mention that he misses throws even when his mechanics appear to be perfect. Something in our brain allows us to make predictions about where a moving object will be, and maybe his brain just doesn't have that and never will.
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46 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
And I think Allen checks more than 2 boxes:
Tall
weight/frame
hand size
Elite arm strength
ability to throw accurately on the run
durable
Solid character and work ethic
has taken snaps from under center
intelligent 37 wonderlic
Mobile, especially for his size
Tall, weight, hand size, and durable are 1 trait - protypical size. Character and work ethic describes every failed Bills QB from this millennium; it isn't enough in the NFL. Wonderlic scores don't correlate with success at all. According to that NDT scouting report Josh Allen had worse ball placement when on the run than every QB except Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph (similarly his ball placement when outside the pocket was worse than every QB except Mike White).
So we're left with what I said - protypical size and elite arm strength. Everything else is a major work in progress.
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3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
So you wouldn't trade up for Allen, but it sounds like you'd love him at 12!
You know what I'd do with a guy like Allen, I'd take him in the 2nd round and give him the Aaron Rodgers treatment. Three years on the bench, give him some spot play here and there when games are out of reach. Every day of that 3 years he's be working with a personal coach whose job is to teach him new muscle memory. I think that's the only way you could hope to make it work. And truthfully that MIGHT work, I don't know because NFL teams don't try that very often. It's usually one year on the bench and then you're thrown to the wolves. Usually what happens there is the guy will flash for a few games but eventually revert to his old mechanics.
If only NFL teams would actually try to innovate we could see more guys like Allen get a real shot to improve. But more likely than not he'll be pushed onto the field early. Look at what the Chiefs are doing with Pat Mahomes. He was very similar to Allen coming out of Texas Tech, needs some time to develop NFL traits. So what do they Do? Give him exactly one year then trade away Alex Smith coming off the best season of his career. Now Mahomes is forced to start with nothing but one year of NFL training. Why has Rodgers been the only QB given ample time to develop? It makes no sense to me.
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41 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
Allen basically checks every box except the accuracy as judged by completion %
This is definitely not true. He throws a lot of interceptable balls, he panics under pressure, he makes bad decisions and bad throws when forced to move beyond his first read, he has very poor ball placement and touch at every level of the field, he attempts throws that he has no business making... Literally he checks 2 boxes - strong arm and prototypical size. Every other trait is a long-term project.
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3 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:
Do they throw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage? How often do they throw the ball down the field? The talent of their WRs
We have answers to these questions:
That scouting report evaluated 13 QBs in the upcoming draft based on accuracy and ball placement, not completion percentage. They methodically looked at every throw one at a time. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement out of all 13 QBs. He was the least accurate on throws both behind the line of scrimmage AND beyond the line of scrimmage.
On throws 20+ yards down the field he was the 2nd least accurate out of all 13 QBs. Having a cannon for an arm didn't help him deliver the ball where it needed to be.
His receivers had the LOWEST drop rate out of all 13 QBs. That excuse would apply much more to Lamar Jackson who had more than double the drop rate Josh Allen had. If I was going for a project QB he would be my pick.
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31 minutes ago, blacklabel said:
Going back to the late 90s, they've run this QBASE thing on all QBs taken within the first 100 picks. I think 27 of them had negative ratings (like Allen) and not a one of them turned into a viable NFL QB.
Yikes that's a pretty decent sample size so that result is scary. Keep in mind QBASE also factors in the QB's projected draft position to account for live scouting. So his projection as a top 5 pick is pushing his QBASE higher than it normally would be, and it's still negative. All the analytics say he's going to be an all-time bust.
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Jordan Palmer was so bad he couldn't replace EJ Manuel in the London game. He's being paid by Josh Allen. So his opinion doesn't mean anything to me. Manuel did the same thing every offseason, got with some "QB guru" that praised him for his progress. If becoming more accurate was simply a matter of practice there would be 32 quality starters in the NFL. Unfortunately some guys just don't have it no matter how hard they work and I would bet a lot of money Allen is one of those guys.
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59 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:
Gee, isn't it funny that with all the professional teams drafting, they will have 4-6 QB's in the first 32, rather than 1. I guess those guys aren't as smart as the guys who made that list.
Again this isn't a draft board. It's just their rankings by draft grade. Obviously QBs are so important that they will always be drafted higher, but that doesn't mean they are automatically graded higher than every other prospect.
2 hours ago, Scorp83 said:I have to ask, why do you think otherwise?
I don't necessarily disagree, it's just a bold prediction is all. I like Jackson a lot. I probably wouldn't rank him above Darnold but I respect them making a bold prediction like that. It's a good test for their methodology.
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Their really bold predictions are ranking Jackson ahead of Darnold and Lauletta ahead of Rudolph.
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Just now, Virgil said:
Hard to pay much attention to a list that has a Guard as the #1 prospect.
In most scouting circles Nelson is seen as the can't miss prospect from this draft. They're not saying he's worthy of the #1 overall pick, just that he is the best overall player.
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9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Each draft class with its individual players has to been evaluted on the merits. History be damned!
Then why does everyone want to trade up to #2? Only because we know the probability of #2 working out is better than the probability of #12 or #22 working out. But don't be fooled, the probability of #2 working out is still very low. We shouldn't literally give up ANYTHING to increase our probability by maybe 25% or so. There's a limit.
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15 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
All of that means zero with respect to this particular draft.
I strongly disagree with that. Or if this is true that would also mean everyone should be fine with drafting a QB in the 2nd round since past probabilities are meaningless.
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9 minutes ago, Carter said:
We don’t
JP Loseman vs Big Ben.
RGIII vs Russell Wilson. Alex Smith vs Aaron Rodgers. Etc.
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5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
It's not about getting any QB. They apparently are focused on getting a QB who they believe can be the franchise guy as opposed to settling.
Less than half of the franchise QBs in the NFL today were drafted in the top 3. If you remove #1 overall picks the only ones are Ryan and possibly Wentz. #2 overall QBs are not worth 3 1st rounds plus a few 2nds and 3rds on top of it.
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7 minutes ago, Pasaluki said:
Mayfield might not get past 5 and then the Dolphins can get him at 11. I would be fine with trading up to 5 for Mayfield. If they are trading up to 2 their target most likely is Josh Rosen.
I'm fine with a trade up, I just don't see the need to get to #2. Mayfield at 5 would be great and we wouldn't have to give up anything from next year to do it.
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5 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:
What is the cost of not having one?
See: past 18 years
Who said anything about not drafting a QB at all? 5 or 6 QBs will go in the 1st round this year. We can draft one without giving up a bunch of picks. Everyone is focused on pick 2. That is far from our only option.
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20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
You are already paying a big premium before next year’s 1. I don’t see next year’s 1 being involved unless it’s a last resort. That is the Bills single best asset. That’s not the throw in. You keep adding from this year.
I'll be surprised if we get to #2 without giving away next year's 1st. I'm not interested in giving that away when QBs like Mayfield, Jackson, and Rudolph are available for much less. If we could do it with the picks you posted I would say go for it, but we're not even in the top 10 so they're going to want a very hefty return.
22 minutes ago, Gugny said:I don't understand this knock on the kid. He's a very smart kid and realizes that the overwhelming majority of his lifetime will be spent NOT playing football. What's wrong with looking ahead?
There's been too much smoke surrounding his desire to go to a big market for my liking. If he goes to Cleveland or Buffalo I think he'll get bored and eventually lose focus. He is not your average football player. He can make millions doing something else and he's had a couple concussions already. Hand him a few million dollars before he ever does anything and you have a recipe for an early quitter. I think he has the skills to be the next Peyton Manning, seriously, but his other concerns scare me a lot.
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29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
12, 22, 53, 65 and 2019 2nd for 2 and a 5th.
That should get it done.
Add in next year's 1st and you probably get it done. That being said I wouldn't give up that much for someone who is maybe not even focused on football.
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29 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
Didn't try hard enough to trump the Jets offer.
What does this mean?
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Ugh I can't handle April Fool's Day on Easter, I don't have my guard up. You got me for about 5 seconds, well played.
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2 minutes ago, Augie said:
But did you know he can throw the ball really far?
There's a football with Josh Allen's initials on it orbiting the sun. Unfortunately he was aiming for the moon.
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If you haven't seen the NDT Contextualized Quarterbacking, it has a lot of info on all the QBs in this draft including Allen:
It confirms for me that Allen is not a 1st round prospect.
QuoteJosh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement. On top of his poor decisionmaking as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy.
The numbers for Allen are terrible. When he moved beyond his first read he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time. When under pressure, 20.8%. In other words when he dealt with real NFL challenges he fell apart.
The author charted 13 QBs in the draft. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement on throws behind the line of scrimmage and on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. His placement on throws 20+ yards down the field was 2nd worst only to Mike White. Aren't those throws supposed to be his strength? His placement beyond his first read is worst in the class, so is his placement when under pressure. His placement on tight window throws is 2nd worst. His interceptable pass percentage is - surprise - the worst.
QBs like Chase Litton from Marshall and Brandon Silvers from Troy charted better than on him on nearly every metric, just so we're clear on what he's being compared to.
The excuse about Allen's receiving corps doesn't work either. He had the lowest drop rate out of all 13 QBs - 4.5%. Lamar Jackson more than doubled that drop rate at 10.8%. There's a good example of why I don't care about completion percentage.
I'll be shocked if he can improve enough to be a starting level NFL QB. It could happen but the odds are very much against it. I'd easily take 6 other QBs in this draft before him.
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Brandin Cooks to the Rams for the 23rd - Pats eyeing Rosen - per Allbright
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted