HappyDays

Trevor Lawrence is so bad... I might not have him as a top 20 QB right now.

Now that Metcalf is officially listed as Doubtful... Bills 27 Seahawks 13 I think the 1st half will be a bit of a defensive struggle. Mike Macdonald's simulated pressures could give our OL some trouble as we've seen a few times this year. The CBs they have are outstanding. Byron Murphy has been a force in the middle. For these reasons, plus a likely rainy day which Allen historically has struggled in, I don't expect a fast start on offense. But on defense I really think we can shut them down. No Metcalf means we can cheat heavily towards stopping Kenneth Walker from taking over the game. The Seahawks are down to their 4th string RT - a 6th round rookie that played DII football - so Rousseau should have his way in this one. Geno Smith is basically an average QB so he isn't going to elevate his mediocre group of weapons and he will throw some interceptable passes. There is no reason we shouldn't dominate them defensively even with Bernard being out. So I'll predict something like 13-13 at the end of the 3rd quarter, then in the 4th quarter we'll outscore them 14-0 to put the game away.

Baltimore's rush offense is more than doubling Seattle's in YPG. 6.2 YPC vs 4.5 YPC. Baltimore has a historically elite rushing offense. The rankings I found only goes back to 2003, but no other offense in that time frame has really come close to 6.2 YPC. Seattle on the other hand has an average rush offense. So I don't see the comparison. Without Metcalf out there we should be loading the box and daring them to throw outside. If an average run offense is able to impose their will on us when we barely have to respect the pass, we have much larger problems than a backup MLB.

I know Bernard is a very good player and an important piece, but LB is a position you can get by with for a game or two, especially against an average offense. There's no part of me that worries Seattle is going to march up and down the field just because Spector is out there. We have our CBs, we have our entire starting DL. It is up to the coaches to not let Kenneth Walker take over the game. Force Geno Smith to move the ball throwing to Jake Bobo and an over-the-hill Tyler Lockett. Rousseau needs to abuse their 4th string(!) RT. That game plan is going to be the same whether it's Fred Warner or AJ Klein out there.

Because we're missing a LB and rotational DT? Bills fans way over exaggerate the impact of injuries at non-premium positions. No excuses in this one. The Seahawks are an average offense and likely missing their best player. If they score more than 20 points it's a failure IMO.

It played some part. It is not however the primary reason Hopkins got a 5th and Cooper got a 3rd. Both basically cost their new team peanuts on the cap.

There's no way a $2.4M cap difference led to a 5th vs a 3rd. That is about the quality of the players being traded more than anything. I sincerely don't know any analyst that thinks Hopkins is as good as Cooper at this point in their careers. I guess we'll see.

He would have had more targets if he earned them by getting open. His target share was a function of his limited skill set.

Who has said he's a top tier WR in the class of a Ceedee Lamb? He is a #1 WR that can play outside. That's what this offense needed.

That's just perception. All relevant rushing metrics we are slightly below average. YPC, YPG, yards before contact, you name it. We've had, what, one drive the entire season where we dominated our opponent on the ground? That is the what our IOL is built for.

No we don't have the line, the coaching, or the QB to have the Ravens run offense. They are one of a kind. The hindsight move is signing Darnell Mooney instead of Curtis Samuel.

I'm sorry man but you are just wrong on this one, and weirdly boastful about it. Your mind is stuck in 2022. This is like saying "Stefon Diggs is as good as Nico Collins" and scoffing at anyone that disagrees. Hopkins has legitimately fallen off. When WRs fall off they fall off fast. Hopkins is still a good player, but he is not close to a 1,500 yard WR like Rice was trending before Patty gave him the ol' Tonya Harding.

Cooper is better than Hopkins right now. Not even a question. He's younger, his physical abilities haven't diminished as much, he has better separation skills, he's less injury prone. If you don't believe me, believe the NFL market - Cooper went for a 3rd, Hopkins went for a 5th. That tells you where the players are valued. I don't know, I can't bring myself to worry too much about this trade. The Chiefs are undoubtedly better off now than they were last week, but they are undoubtedly worse off than they were in August. They were always going to trade for a WR once Rice went down. This trade means they won't be trading for Kupp so to me that's a net positive. It was a move that they HAD to do, not a move that pushes them over the top.

I'm not sure how much of a separator Hopkins is at this stage of his career... I'll be interested to see how he fits in with Mahomes. Mahomes has never been the type to throw up contested catches and they've never had somebody like that in their offense. But he is better than Skyy Moore so obviously it is a good trade for them. Just not really a big needle mover IMO.

This was the knock on him coming out. Long way to go but I think his ceiling might be automatically capped by his size. Still a scary player in that offense though.

This is something that could change the conversation for me. I would need to know the exact details on what he would cost against the cap. If the biggest part of the trade is draft capital then I am completely fine with that. If on the other hand the cap impact is also substantial, and it comes down to affording Myles Garrett or say Amari Cooper I take Cooper every time, even knowing that Garrett is a better overall player. So I would need to know that we could afford Garrett AND a #1 WR to be comfortable with it.

Maybe. I don't mind if they take an edge rusher in the 1st round, a 1T I would obviously not be happy with. It isn't just about this upcoming pick, it's about the total amount of draft capital and cap space we'd be devoting to Myles Garrett. Allen is about to get a big raise and we don't have a #1 WR on the books beyond this year. If we can afford Garrett without yet again sacrificing Allen's supporting cast then sure go for it but it feels like a trade off would be necessary. My thought process is that we need to get past the Chiefs in the playoffs. Mahomes has gone against several elite pass rushers in their playoff runs, and really the TB loss was the only time it had an effect on their team. TJ Watt, Hassan Reddick, Nick Bosa - none of them have really made a difference. If the thought is that we need a closer on defense, I can get myself there. I still worry about the investment trade off though. I'm ready for a total philosophical switch where as much capital as possible is invested into building the best possible support system around Allen. I know edge rusher is a game changing position, but making yet another big investment in the DL would leave a bad taste in my mouth.

Obviously this is somewhat dependent on QB quality, but he's leading all rookies in EPA per target and 3rd in total EPA. And he is still very raw and ascending.

No, I am done giving up a ton of assets for the DL. Multiple high picks and a bunch of cap space that could be used building the offense around Allen. I know Garrett is a star but he is not going to be the reason this team wins a Super Bowl. Allen throwing to a boatload of weapons with great pass protection, that will be the reason. Whatever money Garrett would get next year, give it to Amari Cooper.

Trading up in the 1st round for a non-QB is generally not good business. Hindsight will always end up featuring at least one player you wish you had traded up for, but without that benefit you want to have as many dart throws as possible. IMO Beane's real mistake in this one was failing to draft a 2nd WR. I can't begrudge him for doing the statistically wise thing and keeping his picks on hand, especially for a trade that nobody actually knows if it was available. I do begrudge him for passing on other WRs that were available later in the draft. Oh well. At least he fixed his mistake before the season was lost. Assuming Cooper performs as well in this offense as I expect him to he is a priority re-sign for me next offseason. Him plus a sophomore Coleman plus Shakir plus some other WR we hopefully draft in rounds 1-3, now we're talking.

I'm all for having an elite run offense but we have to be honest about the personnel and coaching that we have. A lot of our drives are ending early because we're throwing away 2nd downs. At this point we just gotta lean on our strength. We didn't start dominating the Titans because of "balance", we had our new and improved group of weapons run routes downfield and had Josh gun them the ball for big gains. That's our offensive identity now, as it should have been all along.

Even putting the stats aside, I've never once this year felt like we were just imposing our will on the ground. We have a lot of runs that go nowhere or get negative yardage, mixed in with a couple really nice runs, and a lot of 2-3 yard runs on run downs. Which is the definition of an average run offense. And that's to be expected. Our IOL is built more for the pass than the run and Brady is not a mad scientist with his run scheme. It's mostly basic and asks average interior run blockers to just win their rep. I think adding Cooper could open the run up a bit by giving defenses one extra thing to worry about. I'm still not expecting us to suddenly build a bully run offense or to be better than average. Run enough to keep defenses honest but otherwise let the offense run through its best trait which is Josh throwing the ball downfield.