HappyDays

Jets run defense stinks

Houston forgot about their OL in the offseason. The same problem that got them blown out in the divisional round is still a problem.

Bills 34 Dolphins 17 I don't have anything interesting to say about this one. We own the Dolphins, period.

I'm sure. Allen is elite at leading his WRs away from hospital hits. Underrated trait of his.

Another benefit I thought of the Jets winning - I want as many teams as possible vying for the 7th seed. Right now it feels like Pittsburgh (or Baltimore?) and Denver have very good odds to be the 5th and 6th seed. The last team I want in as the 7th seed is the Bengals. Jets, Chargers, or Colts are the dream scenario.

I think my favorite play is the one 37 seconds in when two DBs get their hands on him (including Devon Witherspoon, no slouch) and he just pushes through the contact like a turnstile to get wide open downfield. That's the kind of play I envisioned when I advocated for him to be our pick. For good measure here he is getting around press coverage stacking Woolen and forcing a DPI to prevent a TD: Down for down this was the most physically dominating performance I've seen from a Bills WR since I don't know when.

Cook definitely not. Use him up for the next season and a half and let some other team make that mistake, and get a decent comp pick back. Shakir I'm 50/50 on right now. I know slot WR is easier to fill but I'm usually in favor of paying players that create plays that go above and beyond the scheme. He's really a perfect mix of chain mover and playmaker which is not going to be easy to replace. And it's not like Knox where we'd be paying him for one outlier year of production. It's going on two seasons now where he is catching an absurd percentage of targets and finishing top 15 in yards per target. Hopefully we draft a WR decently high next year so that if we need to move on from Shakir we have someone waiting in the wings. If he ends up getting $20M per year like people are predicting I'm not in favor of that at all.

Yeah I could see us ending the season 14-3 and still ending up the #2 seed behind the 16-1 Chiefs. I guess you hope they lose one of their remaining divisional games, maybe in Denver, and then hopefully the Texans or Steelers find a way to beat them. It's hard to see them ending the season any worse than 14-3 and even that record is assuming we beat them.

Root for the Texans to lose as many games as possible before Nico Collins is back. Man I wish the Colts had made the QB switch one week sooner. Texans have a sneaky difficult schedule to end the season - they still have Lions, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Ravens. I think 1-3 in those games is likely. If they also lose tonight that puts them at 6 losses on the year and I would feel very confident we end ahead of them in the standings in that scenario. But hey if the Jets lose that will still be a good result because we'll basically lock up the division with a win on Sunday. No bad outcomes tonight.

Arm length was only used as a talking point regarding his ability to play outside. And that has turned out to be a legit talking point - 69.8% of his snaps this year have come from the slot. I don't have access to stats on his exact target share from the slot versus outside, but from the eye test I'm mostly only seeing him get outside targets on screens, everything else is coming from the slot. Not that there's anything wrong with him having a defined slot role. His efficiency from that position has been otherworldly and his YAC skills are as good as it gets. That's been my favorite aspect of this new pass catching group as a whole. YAC is arguably more important than ever now because of the way defenses are schemed. It's very hard to win over the top these days, so getting chunk plays with the ball in your skill players' hands is the best way to move down the field in a hurry. Joe Marino does a weekly recap of Josh Allen analytics as part of his Substack. According to his data 57.4% of Allen's passing yards come from YAC. That ranks 4th in the NFL. Coleman and Shakir rank 2nd and 5th respectively in YAC per reception. Kincaid ranks 12th. This is a massive upgrade from previous seasons where I know we consistently ranked near the bottom of the NFL. So we may not have a defined vertical WR right now but I think we're more than making up for it with the efficiency of the group.

There's really no questions about any of these players. Elam is worse than Benford and Douglas and it's not close. Edwards I can't speak too as much because I haven't seen him play this year but I won't ever question McDermott on DBs. Deion Jones? He is a free agent, not even offered a PS spot anywhere. Why did you even bring him up? And Bishop is a rookie who blew a coverage so bad we gave up an uncontested 60 yard TD. I'll be critical of McDermott when warranted but none of these players have proven they belong on the field.

I'm sorry but it is laugh out loud funny that a career backup has the audacity to demand a trade. Hard pass for me, even if we got an offer which I doubt we would. Quality depth is an important attribute of championship teams. Edwards himself is a good example considering he had to step in for KC during their playoff run last year. A swap of 7ths or whatever isn't worth giving that up.

McConkey is never going to be much better than he is right now IMO and he'll likely be relegated to the slot. High floor low ceiling type of player. I think you can find that skill set in the 3rd round or later. Big physical WRs with elite body control don't make it out of the top 40. I am all about drafting for the future, not for year one. And as we're seeing with Coleman sometimes that future comes faster than you think for the physically gifted players.

Yeah well I have a few complaints about your British English: 1) Not every word needs an extra "u" thrown in. The letter "o" is perfectly fine on its own. 2) The first floor is the one that touches the ground. The one above it is the second floor. Etc. 3) We don't learn histories, sciences, or Englishes in school. And so neither do we learn maths. It is a singular concept.

Is he really "under fire"? Seems to me like he said a word that is considered offensive in the UK - which the NFL is actively trying to expand their market into - and is likely being told by Fox not to use that word anymore. I've seen more outrage about the supposed outrage than the supposed outrage itself. I haven't seen anyone calling for him to be fined, fired, or anything like that.

Beautiful eulogy @SDS. Thank you for taking the time to write it. If you spend as much time on here as some of us do, you have to have a few screws loose. John was no different. I'll miss his particular brand of posting and my thoughts are with his son and daughter.

I remember after Worthy scored a TD on a totally blown coverage in week 1, there were a few people on here that said that play was evidence of him "beating press coverage" 😂

In this modern media environment that fan will have a $1 million podcast deal sponsored by Manscaped by the end of the week

Yeah even the play he drew a DPI on near the end of the game, on the all 22 you can see him stack Woolen and gain vertical leverage. That penalty was well earned. If he can start doing that consistently in addition to what he already offers in the short to intermediate areas, not to mention his elite YAC skills, he's going to be a nightmare for CBs. Woolen is as physical as it gets at the position too. That was a great test and he passed with flying colors. I see enough traits that could develop into a #1 WR. I don't think his ceiling is as limited as you do. He was basically shadowed by his opponent's #1 CB on Sunday and performed like a #1 WR in that situation. I never saw Gabe Davis do that. Next thing I want to see from him is developing his timing on downfield boundary catches. He dropped a beautiful honey hole shot from Allen because he didn't time his jump correctly with when the ball arrived. That sort of nuance will come with reps.

You know what they say - if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all.

I knew it would take time to reach his ceiling, but I was fine with that. If you want to draft for year one then take Ladd McConkey, knowing that the ceiling is limited and he'll never be a true game changing player. I shoot for the high ceiling in the 1st round. Beane has had no difficulty finding plenty of good players. We need some great ones with physical abilities that go above and beyond the play call. Coleman is a bit ahead of schedule for what I expected actually. By the end of the year I think he'll be a considerably better talent than Gabe Davis for example, and he may have already broken that threshold over the last two games. Then like you said it's a matter of how high that ceiling goes. I really think people overthought Coleman as a prospect. A lot of it reminded me of the Josh Allen pre-draft conversation. I was 100% on the wrong side of that one and I vowed to never get fooled again by media narratives. Like with Allen, fans and analysts were throwing around totally out of context and unexplained stats that were just taken as gospel. Contested catch percentage, reception perception charting, etc. It's like people forgot what actually wins at the NFL level - size, strength, body control. Also people were analyzing him as the player he was, not the player he could become. Scouting is about projection. Like with Allen he had an unusual athletics background which implied a rawer starting place than his peers, and elite athletic traits which implied a higher ceiling. Like Allen he was known to have a strong work ethic and a desire to be great. So all the ingredients were there to tell me he had a bright future. Plus like I mentioned above I wanted a physical WR that could finally overcome the issues we continually run into in the playoffs. To me it was a simple formula - take a physically imposing WR and place him on the field with a physically imposing QB, and it will probably work out for the best even if it doesn't always look pretty. I wanted a power forward, not a ballerina. Coleman quite literally met that standard and his football character traits (based on everything I had read about him) pushed him even higher in my esteem. Couldn't be happier with the result so far and it's only gonna get better.

Yes playoff football is why he was my #1 target for the Bills. I was so sick of watching WRs like Stefon Diggs and John Brown get shut down by physical DBs in the playoffs when officials keep their flags tucked away. Small WRs get bullied in the playoffs. Finally we got a WR that is the bully.

You mean the last 8 weeks

We don't need another situational pass rusher. We have like 3 of those, and yes I'm including Von in that mix. The one position I want Beane to add is a big DT.

I'm old enough to remember when most fans and analysts said Tomlin made a mistake putting Wilson in for Fields. No question Wilson is running the offense better. I don't expect Pittsburgh to make any real noise in the playoffs, but hopefully they at least give Baltimore a real run for the division title.