HappyDays

I think it's more on Brandon Beane than Joe Brady. We don't have the vertical receiving talent to take advantage of his arm, unfortunately. The volume rushing/high percentage pass play offense that we've been seeing is exactly what I expected given the personnel. Admittedly it has been more efficient and productive than I expected though.

Likely going to be a good test for our WRs this week. But Josh can also run against man coverage so maybe he'll frustrate them enough to pull them out of it.

This is really good stuff. And remember Coleman comes from a basketball background. His natural inclination is to create contact and box out his man. We've only given him one opportunity in that scenario and he delivered a big catch.

Yeah he is having an elite start to the season. Almost unbelievably good. In the 2nd tweet, look at Ja'Marcus Ingram just behind him. Say what you will about Sean McDermott, he is the best DB coach in the league.

It was gameplan specific too I'm sure. Bills fans severely underrate Jalen Ramsey, probably because Allen has had some of his best performances while facing Ramsey in coverage, but make no mistake he is a very good to elite CB. The Bills wanted no part of the Coleman vs Ramsey matchup, not when the Dolphins defense has plenty of other vulnerabilities to exploit. I think at this point Coleman's ideal usage is a couple of targets on schemed free releases per game, and throw in an occasional contested opportunity in 1v1 coverage when he's facing an average or worse CB. There's no need to force targets to him. If defenses start clogging the middle of the field then we can adjust and see if he's ready to take on a bigger role.

I feel like I'm too biased to have an intelligent conversation about this, seriously. It's one of the few discussions where I have to admit that I'm too close to the situation to analyze it properly. There are times where I allow myself to consider what you posted. What I've ultimately come to in my mind is that whatever difference exists between Allen and Mahomes is negligible, and certainly not the primary reason for the Chiefs success versus the Bills success since 2020.

You know Alpha I don't inherently have a problem with a run heavy offense. I have never been one to say that when Josh Allen is your QB it means you have to always pass 35 times a game. I've seen people say Allen needs to throw the ball early and often to get in a rhythm and that a run heavy game plan would lead to him making more mistakes. Instead so far this season we've seen the run game help keep the offense on schedule which keeps Allen under control playing boring football until the situation calls for Superman and he dons his cape for a play or two. That formula does require mostly mistake free football across the board but so far the supporting cast has delivered. I am not a believer in pass first or run first philosophy, I'm a believer in coming into every game with a specific plan to beat that week's opponent and executing that plan. Week 1 the Cardinals have terrible run defense and bad outside CBs so that's where we attacked. Week 2 the Dolphins are soft up front and over the middle, and strong in coverage on the boundary, so we gameplanned accordingly. This has been my favorite aspect of Brady's coaching so far - he doesn't stubbornly insist on trying to follow the same game script every week, he has shown a willingness to do the simple thing and attack his opponents at their weakest points. Some weeks that means Allen will only throw the ball 20 times and I have zero issues with that. I like that so far we are asking Allen to pull a rabbit out of a hat 2-3 times a game instead of 10 times a game. At this point it's about sample size and sustainability. You can't argue with the efficiency. There are just certain game situations the offense hasn't been exposed to yet and we'll need to see how they respond when those situations inevitably come up.

I know the point here is to show the similar ranking, but the raw numbers themselves are pretty remarkable. If I'm reading those charts correct, after averaging 0.20 EPA per play last year Allen is now averaging 0.51 EPA per play through two games. So his efficiency has gone up 2.5x. That isn't going to be sustainable over 17 games considering the leader last year didn't even eclipse 0.35 but it is notable. The eye test says Allen is playing even more efficient ball this year and the stats back it up.

I won't lie, I was not 100% confident the Bills would end up a top 10 scoring offense. I looked at the Chiefs offense last year, they ranked 8th in YPG, 14th in PPG, and 8th in DVOA (which is my preferred ranking measurement). An offense led by Mahomes and Andy Reid ending up with those metrics because of a depleted receiving corps made me wonder if we would ultimately end up a top 10 offense. As of now I am cautiously optimistic that we will in fact exceed the Chiefs offense from last year, with a big emphasis on cautiously. Through two weeks we rank 2nd in offensive DVOA. The obvious caveat being that it's an incredibly small sample size. Every year under McDermott the whole team has had a midseason slump, can we avoid it for once? I am still worried about the sustainability of an offense that features a bottom quartile outside WR group (which is probably a generous description). Naturally I'm worried that none of the regular season stats will matter at all anyways when we inevitably face the Chiefs in the playoffs. But I'm willing to step back on some of my offseason concerns and say that at the very least I'm more optimistic than I was and I'm interested to see where it goes from here. I really wish we played the Chiefs before the trade deadline. That would be a great barometer of where our offense is at relative to a championship caliber level and might have given Beane the push he needs to make a "cross the finish line" type of move.

His metrics are elite. Basically this chart shows him top 3 in passer rating allowed and top 8 in yards allowed per snap. You can find Sauce Gardner all the way in the bottom left.

I never understand this mindset. I hope they're desperate. It causes teams to press and make mistakes. It's been the Chiefs advantage in recent years - every matchup they enter no matter how big the stakes, all the pressure is on their opponent. When their opponent is pressing they make dumb mistakes like jumping on a WR early on a 4th down pass that probably isn't catchable. So the Chiefs are always playing with house money. If we go into that SNF game 3-0 against an 0-3 Ravens squad we get to be the ones playing with house money. Give me that all day.

Rookie WR separation win rates through two weeks:

I'm not sure the Ravens have a great running offense though. Which is crazy to say with Lamar Jackson at QB. But Derrick Henry is not in his prime anymore and the interior OL kind of sucks. They are for sure a better coached team than the Cowboys. That will have to be enough to make up for a clear talent discrepancy.

I heard a stat yesterday. Over the last five years the Ravens have 10 losses where they held a 7+ point lead in the 4th quarter, the most of any NFL team in that timeframe. Letting a bad Raiders team win in that fashion is just embarrassing honestly.

For me the conversation has actually changed though. A month ago I was worried about us being even a top 10 offense. Now having seen the running game and seen the OL and seen Allen elevate his game even further I think we are one legit outside weapon away from being a top 5 offense. I no longer see this as a throwaway rebuild season. I see it as a legit championship contention year and I'm all in on trying to capitalize on it. That's what the trade deadline is for. Go rescue DeAndre Hopkins from his dead end team, or something like that.

For some reason the Bills passing offense dominates the conversation around here. I can't imagine why.

I don't know, usually I make my points and then others make theirs and I let the conversation end. I only feel the need to respond again when someone says something like I've gone off the deep end.

I'm off the deep end because I think our outside passing game is a weakness? If it helps, the offense as a whole looks better than I thought it would. But by no means do I trust the offense to run through Coleman and Hollins if that becomes the necessary game script, and I worry that at some point we'll need it to.

And that's why the NFL is king

Haha they scored too fast! Whoever went out of bounds on 1st down made a mistake

Wow they should actually be running clock here

If you take a RB in the top 10 in this day and age, 4th and short has to be automatic. What an embarrassing franchise.

Young's problem is he hasn't shown anything on an NFL field. Even Darnold and Mayfield showed some sort of potential early on. This has been more like Josh Rosen where every time he takes the field it looks really bad, and there's nothing even remotely promising to point to. What high end traits are there to develop? He can't read the field, he hasn't been accurate, he gets lost in the pocket, he isn't big or fast or strong. Normally I'm in favor of letting the young QB sink or swim but there's a point where you have to just acknowledge what you're seeing with your own two eyes... My guess is his career will end similarly to Rosen's, get signed to a couple practice squads and then it will be over for good. Brutal league.

Tough call between Burrow and Stroud for me. Burrow's done it longer which certainly counts for something. Whereas Stroud genuinely does look a bit better when I watch him, better throwing on the run and doesn't miss as many passes to my eyes. Since I'm on the fence I default to the player that's been more durable. So it's Stroud for me. Very close though.