HappyDays

That's right. Explosive plays (defined as 20+ yards gained) quadruple your scoring expectation on a drive. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-explosive-plays-and-re-thinking-offensive-success Your expected points on a non-explosive play drive is 1.2, versus 4.79 on an explosive play drive. With Allen at QB explosive plays should be much easier to come by than the average offense. But we haven't made the investments around him to make them as automatic as they should be. That is what some of us take exception with. We've intentionally built our personnel to play a very low margin for error offense, and by definition that means every negative play feels like a drive killer.

That was a very nicely timed PA out of 12 personnel that 100% fooled KC. Brady won that play, not the receiver. I don't really count that as an example of Knox "stretching the field." But I will give our offense some credit for finding some explosive pass plays against KC. That was totally missing in previous weeks. That PA to Knox, Kincaid's TD, the 47 yarder on Kincaid's crosser, the flag route to Moore. No coincidence that all 4 of our TDs came on drives that featured those 4 plays. In fact the outcome of drives in this game perfectly correlated to whether we had a 20+ yard pass play. On 4 drives we had a 20+ yard pass and scored a TD on all of them, on 5 drives we didn't have a 20+ yard pass and failed to score a TD on all of them. That's how critical it is to be able to produce those explosive passes. I remain unconvinced that we can consistently create those plays with the current personnel, especially if we're ever in a situation where the defense knows we have to pass, and I would have preferred to add a weapon that gives us more consistency there. But maybe they can build off this last performance and prove me wrong. We'll see.

I can't find the stat from this year, but last year we faced the lowest percentage of two high coverage shells in the NFL at 37.7%. This is per Joe Marino's substack. I swear I remember hearing we are similarly low this year but I don't know the exact percentage or ranking. Defenses are definitely very mindful of Allen's ability to deliver strikes to the intermediate area of the field, but they are not worried about us getting behind them. They're able to cheat a bit and compress short and intermediate passing windows because we have no way of punishing them for it. A lot of Allen's initial reads end up muddy because a coverage defender that should be in conflict is able to stay leveraged both low and high because they have no fear of one of our WRs darting past them.

There's a lot more to being a vertical WR than just a 40 time. Samuel and Moore have never been vertical WRs... They don't have Shaheed's release, his ability to stack CBs, his ball tracking, his hands. Shaheed has his own limitations but the one thing he is special at is the one thing our offense still lacks. Chiefs fans couldn't wait to get rid of MVS when he was there. He was never nearly as consistent in his role as Shaheed has been. Yeah he had a couple good games in New Orleans, and then he was never heard from again. Harty was a kick returner and gadget player whose career was ruined by turf toe. These are not good comparisons to what Shaheed has been for the last couple years. No defensive coordinator out there is worried about anyone in our WR room getting behind their defense. You can see it in their compressed formations week after week. Last year we had Cooper who was a legit vertical threat and just having that threat on the field backed defenses off enough to make a difference. We're going to have to survive the rest of the year without that skill set. The Bills have chosen to impose that limitation on themselves and they have to make it work.

This is the kind of move where I'll be mad if some other contender does it, but if no one does it that tells you something is seriously wrong with his health and/or his behavior and I won't blame Beane for steering clear.

I had heard they put in an offer for Metcalf before he was traded. We know they called on Olave. It seems that Beane gets involved in a lot of these discussions but is never willing to cross his own line. Just once I'd like him to cross it. The last time he did in 2020 we ended up with one of the most successful QB/WR duos in franchise history, regardless of how it ended. My concern all along with the trade deadline was that Beane would want to "win" the trade value. I'm more interested in winning a Super Bowl and you don't get there by staying in your comfort zone. That's my two cents.

A 4th and 5th for Shaheed was not a "crazy offer." It was less than the reported asking price of a 3rd. Quite simply Beane and this coaching staff decided they are good with this offense. Palmer returning from injury and Davis getting elevated at some point is their plan at WR. They have to be right. Another year where the offense has a chance to get it done at the end of a playoff game and can't deliver would be devastating.

I'm obviously not happy they didn't add to the WR room. I thought it was a mistake in the offseason and I think it's still a mistake now. The AFC is wide open but I don't trust this offense to make critical plays in critical moments at the end of games. But oh well, they'll play the games and we'll see if they were right to stand pat. I'm not gonna spend the rest of the week whining about it. They made their bet and they have to be right.

I of course would have easily traded a 1st but maybe they didn't want to trade within the division.

I really don't get the Deebo thing. He doesn't give us the skill set we're missing, he's nothing close to what he was before, and he has a void year cap hit of $12.3M next year... Why in the world would we want him?

Seattle knows how you win in the modern NFL - stack your offense and steamroll your opponent. They already had maybe the best pass game in the NFL and decided to make it even better. Add to your strengths and dare teams to stop you.

This is a no brainer trade for us UNLESS we have something better in the works. If we come away with no WR today I'll consider this a big missed opportunity.

Is Ridley even good anymore? That would feel like a move just to make a move. We need a real difference maker IMO. I guess just about anything is better than Coleman at the X position right now.

Whelp hopefully it's Olave or BTJ.

Wow! When is the last time a player was traded immediately after signing a long term extension? This feels unprecedented.

The reason not to do it is it makes it more costly to get out of Taron's contract before it expires. So when teams do these restructures it's for a specific reason that they need the cap space for.

I always find it interesting the messaging that teams are filtering through reporters. "Unless blown away by an offer" is something you only put out there if you want a team to make you that offer. But what does blown away? One 1st round pick? Two?

Rapoport says Hunter won't be out long: I find it interesting that the Jags are choosing to put this info out there. Precursor to BTJ getting traded? I don't want to get my hopes up but it's possible.

Yeah I hear you but our personnel is built to run the ball and we have to live with that. If you put Kincaid on the Diggs/Brown/Beasley offense he would feast. With the current roster construction he's more a chess piece that you deploy situationally. I can't complain when it works as well as it did yesterday. Also I'm still not convinced Kincaid has earned a full time heavy volume role. To my eyes he is winning mostly with his pure athletic gifts which make him a mismatch versus LBs. I don't think he has gotten the nuances of the position totally down yet. Still doesn't do a great job of working open in zone or on scramble drills. But when you ask him to just run by his man, or give him a manufactured catch and run opportunity, that's when his gifts become valuable.

Knox and Hawes are better run blockers so it makes sense that Kincaid's snap counts will be lower, especially in a game we got up by two scores. Same reason Coleman and Shavers are still getting a higher than you'd expect snap share.

One name I had seen brought up is off the menu:

The base salary is the only thing that matters when it comes to trades. The rest of the cap hit is made up of signing bonus, workout bonus, etc. that the original team has already paid out. Olave's base salary is $1.5M. Since we're halfway through the season the trading team would only pay him $750K against the cap.

I'd blame both honestly. Probably more Hancock because he is guarding grass and never gets his head around to see what's going on behind him. Once Mahomes finishes his drop and the ball isn't out Hancock has to know he needs to find someone and plaster. His running mate Bishop did that a couple times in this game and made huge stops as a result. I don't get mad at Hancock though because he's a day three rookie playing in his 2nd ever NFL action. Bernard frustrates me more because it looks like he sees Kelce working open but inexplicably hesitates before sprinting to him. That little indecisiveness means he gets there too late. Bernard was also responsible for the 4th and 17 conversion. He runs right past Rice's crossing route to double Kelce who is already bottled up.

Are you for real man? You don't think there is a single X receiver in the NFL that can get open against man coverage? What in the world... I'm begging you to watch the tape. Coleman is superglued to his man on almost every play. There are a few times on the Chiefs tape where Allen gets his eyes to Coleman 1v1 and the read just isn't there.

Any random player can have a good play now and again. I'm talking about consistency. We have no consistent outside WR ability right now. We're papering over it with a strong run game and quick efficient passes. I'm fine making that version of our offense 90% of what we do but in high leverage situations where we just need a bucket I still have no confidence we have the horses to get one. A lot of fans were pissed at Brady for that 3rd and 10 screen, but he called that play because even he doesn't have confidence in his WRs to get open. I personally had no problem with that play call. That's the world we have to live in with this personnel. The last time we saw Gabe in the Joe Brady offense, his targets were being intentionally diminished. Brady wants no part of Gabe's low efficiency/high negative play rate style of WR. Like I said he's a better option than Shavers. I still do not want him to suddenly become a key part of this offense.