HappyDays

The weird part about it is he gives you nothing that Hollins did. I actually see Palmer as the Hollins replacement/upgrade in the sense that he can play outside, and what you sacrifice in high end run blocking you more than make up for in route running ability. Moore is kind of a weird fit on the roster. He doesn't give us the vertical element that remained our #1 need in the WR room coming out of the draft. I feel like his role ultimately will be spelling Samuel or Shakir in case of injury. Given those players' injury histories it's probably not a bad idea to have a similar skillset able to step in but you'd really rather that player be someone on the PS, not taking up a roster spot. Also a common refrain after the draft was that we need our #5 WR to contribute on special teams but Moore doesn't give you anything there. So he mainly just exists as a redundancy on the roster.

I like on paper the changes they've made. They've added coaches that bring new schematic wrinkles to the table. They've added a legit CB to cover twitchy/speedy WRs. They've attempted to make the DL 10 players deep which has proven to be a successful strategy for overcoming the Chiefs. So I like the overall direction of the offseason. We just have to see if on paper translates to on the field. And nothing we do in the regular season will make me confident we can beat KC when it counts until I actually see it happen.

Why was a 25 year old WR available after the draft for $3.5M if he was really that good?

I can respect that answer too. I think we match up better now than we have because we have a legit speed CB who can at least keep up with Chase, which allows Benford to cover his better matchup in Higgins, and with the revitalization of our DL we can actually take advantage of their bad OL. On defense they are way under talented and they lost Lou Anaruno who was somewhat of a Josh Allen neutralizer (and Mahomes for that matter). I was terrified of them as our potential wildcard opponent last year. Now I feel a lot more optimistic.

I think Kincaid and Moore suffer from somewhat of the same problem. When you watch them move on the field they both LOOK like NFL players whose pure athleticism and talent should make them super productive, which is why they both got drafted high. But NFL bust history is littered with great athletes who could never adjust to the speed of the NFL. I think that's the hardest thing to project from college to the pros and you just won't know if a player has what it takes until they get there. Kincaid's terrible catch percentage this past season despite a low ADOT, while his counterpart in Knox was higher in both categories, is an indication that he wasn't ending up exactly where his QB expected him to be on targets. And Knox isn't exactly a cerebral player but he has developed more of a feel for the NFL game than Kincaid has as of yet. By the end of the season Brady had reverted Kincaid back to his rookie year usage of basic short routes and was only feeding Knox the downfield throws, so Brady was seeing the same things. Hopefully the light clicks for Kincaid this year, he would be far from the first player to have the game slow down for him in his 3rd year. Having watched a fair amount of Moore's 2024 snaps over the past couple days, I see similar flaws in his game. He drifts on routes, he doesn't make himself an available target in zones, he gives away leverage to DBs which creates INT opportunities. He's a good but not elite route runner and he plays small with no catch radius to speak of. I know the common narrative with Bills fans and media right now is that Moore only underproduced because of Cleveland's QB situation, but NFL front offices are smarter than that. 25 year old WRs with great film that demonstrate a lot of untapped potential aren't available after the draft for $3.5M... The NFL is telling you who he is as a player. And unlike Kincaid we're entering year 5, not year 3, so it's much more likely Moore just is who he is at this point.

KC for sure. Their coaches and players have a psychological advantage over us in the playoffs and we won't shake it until we finally beat them when it counts.

Man I was ready to take a victory lap on here after the Seattle game. For anyone who forgets what that looked like: The following Miami game he was not good, and then of course after returning from injury he was a shell of himself. But the player from that video still exists.

No Detroit mentions yet? They lost both coordinators and made no meaningful improvements to their roster, at best I would say their losses and gains in FA were a wash. And then there was their draft which I thought was awful with a lot of reaches. Taking a 1T who underperformed in college in the 1st round was bad value, then they reached for a guard in Tate Rutledge, then they used three 3rd round picks (their original 3rd rounder plus two future 3rds) to draft Teslaa who was seen as a 6th or 7th round option. They still have an extremely talented offense and Hutchinson will hopefully come back fully healthy, but I don't know how you can say their team has gotten better. With the coordinator losses I'd say on the whole they got significantly worse.

I watched some game reels yesterday from his time with Cleveland and there were definitely some targets he could have come down with. Here's a good sample game that I posted earlier in the thread: Some of the targets are absolutely uncatchable, but there are a couple that a bigger more physically gifted WR would have come down with. But we're talking about the 5th WR on the depth chart so as long as he can get some decent separation and catch passes that hit him between the numbers he'll be worth his roster spot. If Samuel ever gets injured which feels inevitable Moore can step in and do some of the same things.

I don't remember what interview or press conference it was, but Beane recently said they got no trade calls for Cook during the draft. So what does that tell you? Teams know what Cook is asking for and not a single one is willing to pay it. You'd think Cook and his brother would get the message. I can respect what they're trying to do but eventually you have to accept the value the NFL places on you. His only option is ball out this year and hope that next offseason some team is willing to pay him what he wants. EDIT - I found the interview snippet:

Body control and size. The upside with him is he becomes a player that can consistently box out defenders to create leverage and then contort for the ball in the air. His best case scenario profile was never Stefon Diggs, it's Brandon Marshall. Obviously he has a long way to go to hit that ceiling.

The forgotten outcome of that thread is that after week 5 just about every person on this board, including the person who started that thread, agreed that adding a WR was a necessary move. Beane himself has defend the Cooper trade by pointing out our offense scored 7 more PPG with him in the lineup. They are hoping that Palmer can replace or improve on what Cooper brought to the offense and that Coleman takes a big step forward in his development.

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart: Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy. This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

I would say it was both. The Chiefs have fallen behind by at least 10 points in every single Super Bowl they've played in, and in all but two their offense eventually found its groove and completed the comeback. But Philly's elite WRs allowed them to build a lead that was insurmountable so by the time KC started moving the ball it was too late. That 2nd half deep TD to Devonta Smith was the dagger that ended any chance of a comeback. Tampa Bay also had an elite WR corps when they beat KC. But the other factor Philly and Tampa had in their Super Bowls was not just one elite pass rusher but waves of pass rushers that they were able to relentlessly send after Mahomes. So in that sense I like the way Beane has attacked the DL this offseason. A lot will depend on how well the three rookies develop and/or DeWayne Carter improves, but right now it looks semi-realistic that we could be 9 or 10 players deep with legit DL talent. That's the formula that has proven successful to harass and ultimately beat Mahomes in the playoffs so on paper at least I like the strategy.

If you liked what Beane had to say, you'll like this clip of Chris Simms and Devin McCourty standing up for him: My response to them would be everything I've already said on here. But I do get what they're saying.

Meh there's no assurances for low cost reclamation projects signed after the draft. I'm sure he signed here mainly because there's a clear path to making the roster and producing with an elite QB, not because we guaranteed him a bunch of money. I'd definitely make him the favorite for the #5 spot right now.

Our most receptions last year was Shakir with 76. Next highest was Kincaid at 44... There's no way Moore is getting more than 80. First he has to make the team.

Watched a few "every target" videos from his time with Cleveland. Here's a game reel that gives you a good look at his pros and cons: I like that he is getting some decent separation. He has good vertical speed. Not sure he can consistently get through physical press coverage but he can run past defenders. The one deep catch in this reel it didn't look to me like he actually stayed inbounds even though they called it a catch, but you can see the speed and the ball tracking on that play. Biggest concern that jumps out is he plays small. He has no catch radius at all. Flacco sucks, that much is obvious, but I thought a couple of the incompletions here would have been caught by a more physically gifted WR. Also he isn't elusive with the ball in his hands. So kind of a low margin for error WR and I think he'll have trouble breaking into the lineup over Shakir and Samuel. But there is a baseline NFL skill set there at least.

We don't know what the money is yet. "Up to" is a classic red herring. Claypool got $1.135M from us. I would guess Moore is around $2.5M. Marginally more expensive but definitely getting paid like the low probability reclamation project that he is. Like I said I'm fine with it, I think he is better than his competition in the room.

That's exactly right. Fans overrate how much extra production WRs get from elite QBs. Chase and Higgins were still elite when Jake Browning was their QB. The example I always use is Tyreek Hill got more production when he went from Mahomes to Tua. WR production is about a whole lot more than their QB, and most of it rests on the WR themselves. I'm struggling to think of a recent example of a WR where the light suddenly clicked on after getting a better QB? It didn't happen with Kadarius Toney or Chase Claypool or Nelson Agholor, etc.

I see this as the analog of Chase Claypool last year. A talented athlete who hasn't been able to figure out the NFL game and has had questions about his attitude. I'm fine with it because he upgrades Shenault and Shavers but I don't have a ton of optimism.

I mean it can definitely be worse. I know everyone wants to blame bad QB play on Moore's lack of production, and I'm sure that's part of it, but he also plays small and does a poor job making himself an available target. Right now he's more an athlete trying to play football.

He is better than Laviska Shenault and Tyrell Shavers. So there's that at least.

I remain cautiously optimistic on Coleman. I hate the way his season ended, you never want to see a developing player end the season worse than he started, but that two game stretch of Tennessee and Seattle showed a glimpse of his potential. I don't expect him to hit his ceiling in year two, he has a lot he needs to work on and progression is not always linear, but hopefully he can get back on a positive trend line this year. Our roster as constructed can afford Bishop or Carter to bust IMO, but we can't afford Coleman to bust. And this is one thing I disagree with @GunnerBill on, I do think Coleman has the body type and skill set to play outside although it will never be as a separation specialist. I expect the Bills to keep trying him outside and if he fails to develop they will make him a big slot as a fall back option.

I consider Worthy to have proven he isn't a bust at least. His floor has been set, his ceiling is still in question. Coleman as much as I liked him as a prospect very well could turn out to be a bust. I'm in wait and see mode on him. There's no comparison between Rice and any of the other WRs we're talking about. Unless the injury alters his career, or he proves to be too stupid to last in the NFL (which is certainly possible), he looks like a true #1 and a cornerstone of the Chiefs moving forward.