HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I think Khalil Mack played on a $2M base salary last season.
If you are willing to backload a deal you can easily get a Von Miller in with $7M in cap room..........that is how valuable that much cap room is.
I know there are runnin' back truthers on TSW but once again the lead RB's in the SB are bit players...........if they have a big game it will be because of their OL or their passing game opening up the LOS or their defense controlling the game. RB's are bit players HEAVILY reliant on a number of other players excelling at their job.
Pass rushers on the other hand........those are individual difference makers in the NFL.
The one-on-one battles are your best chance to make game changing plays in the NFL and with rare exception(like Aaron Donald) those big play opportunities come from edge and island positions so that's the difference between giving an arrow down trajectory Saquon Barkley the same cap space as Mario Addison who was coming off a 10 sack season with Carolina.
And again, if we have a chance to sign or trade for a premier pass rusher then I absolutely take that opportunity over Barkley. But I just don't agree that that cap space given to Addison is more valuable than that cap space given to Barkley. Addison is not a difference maker, he's a rotational piece. That's what $8 million usually gets you from an edge rusher. Barkley has a chance to be a real difference maker for the team. Give Barkley the ball instead of Singletary on that 3rd and short against KC and I think he picks it up because he has speed to get around the edge. With Singletary it becomes a wasted down and we punt. That one play alone may be the difference between a win and a loss. I'm not a RB truther but you take it too far in the other direction by trying to argue that RB talent doesn't matter at all. Barkley being here doesn't mean we have to become a run first team. It just gives our offense another option when defenses are selling out to stop the pass, not to mention another pass catching weapon.
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27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Um, Addison is a free agent this season. The $2M that still shows next to his name is amortized signing bonus tacked onto a void year. Addison took a 2M pay cut last season in exchange for the Bills shortening his contract by 1 year and guaranteeing his 2021 salary.
I know. I'm not explaining myself well. Simply put I don't believe a $7 million cap hit is a huge deal. It isn't going to be the difference in missing out on an impact player. But the upside on taking that risk is limitless. If Barkley two years removed from his ACL injury gets anywhere near his early career form, that cap hit will be a bargain. If he doesn't, oh well. Teams in their championship window have to take gambles. I'm not asking us to become the Rams. But we are at least one game changing player away from being a true Super Bowl favorite. There are two ways to get game changing players short of hitting the jackpot in the draft - sell the farm for a guaranteed impact player by trading high draft picks or handing out a massive FA contract; or take a high risk/high upside chance at a small to moderate cost. With the Bills as currently constructed I think the second option is more realistic. Barkley would be a risk but not one that greatly affects the way we would be able to attack the offseason IMO. And the upside is that our offense becomes practically unstoppable.
27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:If we want to upgrade our biggest needs - which I see as OL and DL, with a shout-out to CB and the need to add another receiver - we have to be very judicious with cap space.
$7 million isn't upgrading our OL or DL or CB room all that much... That was my point with Addison. You could double Barkley's cap hit and still you'd still pay him less than the trio of Vernon Butler, AJ Klein, and Jon Feliciano in 2021. I mean if there was some hypothetical scenario where a premier pass rusher became available for trade and we had to structure our whole offseason around making sure that player fit into the cap, of course I would say forget about Barkley. But assuming we're talking about a normal offseason with a few low tier signings to fill in gaps, then yes I take on Barkley's contract in a heartbeat and build those other positions through the draft.
Going back to the example of the Rams they are $8 million over the cap in 2022 and I don't see anyone freaking out that they won't be able to have an offseason. We're talking about $7.2 million with zero risk past this coming season. That is the kind of cap space that good GMs with generous owners are easily able to find by moving a few numbers around.
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13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Errrr....didn't almost everyone consider Mario Addison's $8.2M cap hit to be outrageous "overpayment for production" last season, given his 2020 contributions?
Same thing
Yes, Addison was overpaid. My point is that it was not a prohibitive cap hit. If we take on Barkley's one year cap hit and cut Addison, it's a wash. And I believe the impact Barkley would have on the team would be substantially greater than Addison's impact has been.
This is the first time I've really considered the idea that Barkley would be a good trade candidate because all along I assumed that when people said his contract was "untradeable," it looked a lot worse than this. Now I see that it's a one year deal with a moderate cap hit for a player with incredible raw talent looking to prove himself in his last chance season before hitting free agency. The risk/reward trade off is more than worth it IMO. And if his contract is as "untradeable" as people say we can likely get him for a bargain.
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I think I remember hearing that these ballots are filled out some time in December. If you re-did them today after Allen's playoff performances no doubt he would be near the top.
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Why is everyone considering a $7.2 million cap hit to be that bad? Mario Addison had an $8.2 million cap hit last year. Getting a young RB two years after his ACL injury on an offense where he wouldn't have to carry the load sounds like an ideal scenario to me.
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Toney has major character issues, I doubt we'd be interested. If the Giants are shopping their 1st round pick after his rookie season that is a big red flag.
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4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:
The SB is always going to be won by the team who can light up the score board.
The Bills scored more points in the playoffs than the Bengals did, in one fewer game. The Bengals didn't get to the Super Bowl by lighting up the scoreboard more. They did it by holding the Chiefs under 30 points. Did people already forget how good our offense was in the last two games that mattered? What more can they do?
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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
And failing that I think our best bet to improving the pass rush from the edge next year is a step forward from Groot and possibly an older guy who shakes free and is ring chasing who might take below market value to chase a ring. I've suggested Cam Jordan is one to keep an eye on in that regard but there may be others.
I'll be the guy that throws out Clowney's name. He had a good year in Cleveland. Although he doesn't strike me as a ring chaser so if he's looking for one final big contract that's probably a no go. Chandler Jones maybe, but he worries me because of his age.
I don’t know, it's just not a good FA year to need an edge rusher. To me it is by far the weakest spot on the roster. We basically need Rousseau to take a massive step to have even average production from the position. Epenesa hasn't shown anything beyond bottom of the roster talent and Basham has little upside. Hughes and Addison are another year older and Obada is nothing more than rotational depth. There's a scary scenario where Rousseau doesn't take a step and we are left with possibly the worst DE room in the NFL. No way we can sit on our hands with that position.
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I think the key point is that for three of four halves across the Divisional and Conference round games Patrick Mahomes was unstoppable. I give credit to Cincy that they made some adjustments at half time but the reality of what happened is Patrick Mahomes played an atrocious half of football in that 2nd half. There are time when Mahomes is on when it doesn't matter what you do on defense.
Mahomes played very well against the Steelers but they stopped him on 6 consecutive drives to start the game because of their pass rush. That is how you beat every elite QB in NFL history. Rush 4 and get pressure, and turn the pressure into a sack or throwaway. Mahomes was unstoppable against us because we didn't have any finishers in the front 4. My actual ideal scenario for the 1st round is that we trade ours for a proven edge rusher, but I haven't seen any names that might be available.
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Our passing offense was too good last year to pay even a mid-sized contract to a WR. We're tight against the cap and have bigger needs. The Bills will have plenty of opportunities in the draft to add a speed WR that can play the slot. In FA we likely need replacements at CB, DL, and IOL.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I think trading out will be hard. There just isn't going to be that drop off in players between 25 and 40 that makes teams early in the 2nd ansty.
QB is always the exception, and there are seemingly a few QBs in this class in that Jordan Love range where a team won't be willing to draft them early but may be willing to trade up late in the 1st to secure the QB they want and get the 5th year option. Maybe the Lions at 31/32 want to get ahead of the Titans, Packers, and Bucs to get their pick of the remaining QBs.
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11 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:
I'm also looking to trade down out of this pick if we can get and extra 2 and 3. I might rather have multiple 2s and 3s in this draft TBH.
One potential trade down target is the Lions at 31 or 32 (their pick from the Rams). We pick in front of the Titans, Packers, and Bucs. Depending on how the offseason goes all of those teams could potentially want a QB in round 1. The Lions may want to get in front of them and take their choice of QB.
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15 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Cincinnati defensive personnel isn’t any better than the Bills. Scheme lost that game
Mahomes had the worst half of his career against the Bengals. Their defense didn't win them that game. Mahomes lost it. I'm not betting on that outcome. We need to be able to rush 4 and get pressure on him, then turn that pressure into a sack. We need a cover corner that can stop Hill from picking up chunk yardage. We need a MLB that can stay disciplined and not get abused by Kelce and Mahomes's eyes. At least one of those pieces is needed if we hope to stop the Chiefs offense when Mahomes is playing at his usual caliber.
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6 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Our season didn’t end because we didn’t have enough talent on D.
42 points against... Agree to disagree indeed.
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20 minutes ago, NewEra said:
If we had another stud WR or better OL we likely would’ve beaten the jags and played the KC playoff game @ home.
And again I'm not saying I'm against the Bills adding offensive talent in the draft. I'm saying the type of talent that would add something new to our offense - speed/YAC receiver and interior OL upgrades - are better found on day 2 and 3. Whereas the type of talent that makes our defense better - speed edge rusher and athletic man to man CB - is found in round 1. Like if my choice is Andrew Booth or Jermaine Johnson in round 1 and Calvin Austin in round 2, versus Jameson Williams in round 1 and some defensive player in round 2, I'm taking the first choice with no hesitation.
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14 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Yeah, we also held them to 20 earlier in the year.
Go back and watch that game. Mahomes mostly sucked. His footwork was all over the place and he missed a bunch of throws he usually makes. We got a free pick six off a dropped pass. It was not a shutdown defensive performance. Like the Bengals we got lucky the Chiefs were off their game. When Mahomes is on his game like he was in the divisional round the disparity in talent between their offense and our defense is obvious. We don't have anyone capable of covering White or Kelce. We don't have anyone capable of consistently getting to Mahomes and actually bringing him down. Our defense is built around waiting for offenses to make a mistake while grinding out long drives. When we face an offense capable of doing just that, what players do we have that will step up and make a game changing play?
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10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
The Bills defense was literally as good as any in the NFL
There weren't any elite defenses this year though. The Steelers came close but they were marred by injuries and with that offense being as bad as it was it wouldn't have mattered. The Bills defense did it with coaching and scheme more than pure talent. We don't have any true game changing players in the front 7, or an athletic CB capable of playing man to man across from White. Coaching only takes you so far. Eventually superior talent wins out, as our offense proved in our perfect wildcard game against the best coached defense in the league.
18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:And yet they are watching a Bengals team that has drafted terribly in round 1 the past decade(except their 2 most recent in Burrow and Chase) play in a SB which they reached because they went HEAVY on playmakers on offense instead of trying to distribute talent evenly............ and they literally have a defense built of free agents and later picks.
The Bengals straight up got lucky that Mahomes puked all over himself in the 2nd half, one week after Tannehill did the same. If the Bills want to do what they did and just pay one of the top edge rushers in FA I'm fine with that. This isn't a good year for that strategy though. Meanwhile Hughes and Addison are another year older and Epenesa looks like a bust. Our DE room is nowhere close to championship caliber unless Rousseau takes a massive step.
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24 minutes ago, NewEra said:
We punted 4 times vs KC in the playoffs. Give josh more to work with. Allow him to be completely unstoppable. Defenses get worked on a week to week basis. We literally had the best D in the league last season…..but NFL rules and game plans allow for even the best defenses to get clobbered.
Our QB is good enough to score almost every time we get the ball. Give him the tools to make that a reality. He’s that good.
2 of those punts were because of poor play calling. The other 2 were because of poor OL play. Adding a 1st round WR doesn't change the outcome of that game.
I don't agree with the now popular notion that certain offenses are indefensible. They are harder to defend than ever before, true, but superior defensive talent can still get the job done. I've used the example of Pittsburgh against KC in the wildcard round a dozen times. Six consecutive defensive stops to start the game... Imagine that kind of game script combined with our offense. I don't even need six consecutive defensive stops. Give me five stops throughout the whole game and I'm happy. The Chiefs punted twice against us... That isn’t good enough.
The only tool this offense is really missing is a speed/YAC receiver. Guys like that are available on day 2 every year. The drop off from a receiver like Jameson Williams to Calvin Austin IMO is much less than the drop off from the best edge rusher or CB available in round 1 to the same position in round 2. Whatever defensive player we add in round 1 could make a material difference when we inevitably face the Chiefs in the playoffs again next year. Any offensive player we take just gives us a slightly better chance in a coin flip shootout. I don't want to bet on shootout wins every year. I want to hold the Chiefs below 30 points.
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Until the Bills beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, keep drafting players that help us stop their offense. A speed edge rusher, or an athletic CB, or a MLB that doesn't bite on misdirection. Without any of those pieces it is hopeless to stop the Chiefs offense unless Mahomes happens to be off his game like he was in our regular season matchup. Speed WRs can be found on day two. Immediate starting caliber defensive players are generally only found in the 1st round.
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32 minutes ago, Chaos said:
I don't believe white people are overrepresented in coaching vs the general population
Non-hispanic whites are 62.8% of the general population, but 90% of the head coaching population. That obvious discrepancy is before factoring in the fact that NFL coaches overwhelmingly begin as players and we all know the demographics of players. I mean this isn't even a point worth debating. It's a plain fact that minority coaches are underrepresented.
32 minutes ago, Chaos said:So, if white people are overrepresented as coaches, it is simply the collective result by the EXACT SAME DECISION MAKERS who assessed the individual players and massively underrepresented white people.
It is not the case that the same decision makers pick players and coaches. Nor is it the same process. There is nothing similar about athletic scouting and management hiring. There is no NFL combine for coaches. There is no set list of coaching traits that NFL owners are basing their decisions on. Coaching hires are as much about how comfortable the owner of the team is with the interviewee as they are about any kind of objective standard. It is not at all a one-to-one comparison and I'm kind of sick of people using player demographics as some kind of fall back excuse. If anything those demographics are a point in favor of my argument, since overrepresentation of minorities in players should theoretically lead to the same ratio in coaches. The fact that there is instead a huge overrepresentation on the other end of the spectrum is disturbing.
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Just now, harryS said:
haha, this post contains at least two bad assumptions, maybe three
Name them.
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14 minutes ago, benderbender said:
Why is there no regard for other minorities? Women? Age, sexuality, disability, and veterans? Shouldn’t there be a quota for them as well?
This is a bad-faith argument. Instead of addressing a legitimate concern, you try to paint the concerned parties as not being concerned enough. Why do you think minorities have a more difficult time getting hired as head coaches? No one in this thread seems to disagree with that plain statistical fact. A lot of people are apparently uncomfortable asking why that fact is.
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16 hours ago, Chaos said:
The NFL is driven 100% by merit/winning. The reason the league is 450% overrepresented by minorities in the players ranks is because they give teams the best chance to win.
Then what is the reason for white people being overrepresented in coaching hires? That's the question. I don't think you or anyone else in this thread believes that white people are overrepresented in the coaching ranks because they inherently have more merit as coaches. So there must be some other reason. White players are not given less of a chance than black players, we all know that; but on a statistical basis black coaches appear to be given less of a chance than white coaches.
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For my money the best Brady to ever reside in the AFC East
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Rumored Giants Players Available for Trade
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Yes for some reason everyone talks about RBs only in the context of what they bring to the run game. In the EP offense they should also be weapons in the passing game (think New England all those years with James White). Singletary and Moss get stuck in the mud after catching a pass so their value on those plays is limited.