HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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Flores should at least be given a shot with another QB before he is shown the door IMO. Their front 7 is below average, their offensive skill players are average at best, their OL is terrible, their QB is backup caliber... Not sure what the regime there expects him to do with that group. If anyone should go it's their GM.
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29 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:
@Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79
Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD)
Yeah I actually don't think the kick was a terrible decision. 4th and 9 is a no win situation. Even if they had gone for it and converted a TD they still would have needed to stop KC one more time. At least kicking the FG leaves you with a chance to get the ball back and win with a TD. The bigger problem was the two shots into the endzone on 2nd and 3rd down that left them in a 4th and 9.
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Did anyone else just get a T-Mobile commercial entirely in Spanish or was that just a Hulu thing?
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Big mistake to take two shots at the end zone there. Play like it's 4 down territory and take short completions if they're there.
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Drew Lock vs Mahomes. Was there any doubt KC was winning?
Lock has arguably outplayed Mahomes. Not his fault the run blocking totally whiffed.
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In a way this game is frustrating for Broncos fans because it makes you wonder where has this Drew Lock been all year? If he pulls off the upset it muddies their plans for the QB room next year.
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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:
Said this several times this year... Chiefs are a lesser team this year... Bills need not fear them in the playoffs
Only AFC team I'm especially worried about this year is the Colts. Every other team out of the AFC I feel pretty equally about, Bills can match up and beat any of them even without playing our best game.
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2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:
Unlike their championship years, they now have a suspect OL and defense.
Their OL is perfectly fine. Mahomes hasn't been as good this year.
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2 hours ago, 716er said:
A little birdy says if round 1 is Pats @ Bills the game will likely be Saturday night.
Funny enough a little birdy told me it will be the Monday night game...
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Just now, Coach Tuesday said:
Jerry Jeudy has been a real disappointment.
Drops and injury issues in college. Not a player I would have drafted in the 1st round.
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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:
If the Chiefs lost, does it help the Bills any chance?
Chiefs loss plus a Bengals loss plus a Bills win gives us the 2 seed. In that event we would play the Chargers if they beat the Raiders, or play the Colts if the Raiders beat the Chargers.
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7 hours ago, CSBill said:
It's a good thing when Coaches are way more patient with player development than fans are.
Nobody was asking for Knox to be cut, just for the Bills to bring in competition who at the very worst would be a good #2 instead of Sweeney. Not keeping Hollister or trading for Ertz still looks like a mistake to me. Luckily Knox improved quite a bit so the mistake was minimized.
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If they're going to do a 20 week season with 2 bye weeks they should also make the bye week structure more fair. Having one bye in week 6 followed by 11 straight regular season games is a distinct disadvantage.
I think they should have 4 bye week pairs with 8 teams assigned to each pair. In a 20 week schedule I would have the bye week pairs as weeks 7 and 13, weeks 8 and 14, weeks 9 and 15, and weeks 10 and 16.
With that structure:
1) Every team would have bye weeks at reasonable points in the season.
2) The most consecutive regular season games played after the 2nd bye week would be just 7.
3) A team's 2nd bye week would always be spaced 6 weeks after the 1st bye week.
4) Every team would play in the last 4 weeks of the season which would be an exciting home stretch.
Ideally the 8 teams in each bye week pair would be teams from the same two divisions. So teams in each division would have the same bye weeks as their divisional rivals.
Yeah I've given this way too much thought.
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7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
I get Gronk owns the Bills along with the rest of the Patriots, but is that a reason to hate him as an individual?
No. Try to keep up. The reason is that he slammed a metal brace into the back of Tre White's neck while he was laying on the ground after the play was over, a brutal hit with no justification that could have been career ending.
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If I remember the play correctly, the broadcast commentator said something to the effect of "that's what happens when you try to hold Gronkowski." That sickened me as much as the hit itself.
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This is another incarnation of the junk NFL rumors Twitter account. This guy just posts random crap and retweets himself when one of his guesses comes true.
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2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
This is an awfully tired meme.
Check, for example, the uber-nerd's analytic QB ratings:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Spoiler alert: Rodgers leads the pack, with Allen/Herbert/Mahomes/Brady in a virtual tie for 2nd. And it's been like that all season.
I will never tire of seeing Trubisky as the 2nd highest rated QB in the division.
Edit: Also lmao at Mayfield being rated lower than Keenum AND Mullens.
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On 1/5/2022 at 10:08 AM, billsfan1959 said:
I think your eyes are deceiving you.
According to Next Gen Stats, here are the top 10 receivers in Yards of Separation per catch:
Rondale Moore ARI 5.7
Byron Pringle KC 4.2
Gerald Everett SEA 4.1
Noah Fant DEN 4.1
Dawson Knox BUF 4.1
Braxton Berrios NYJ 4.1
Mecole Hardman KC 4.1
Cole Beasley BUF 4
Jonnu Smith NE 4
Robert Woods LAR 3.8Yards of separation "per catch" is not a good statistic for measuring a WR's abilities, which is evident when you look at that list of players. It is almost all tight ends and slot receivers. Which makes sense when you consider the amount of screens and check downs and schemed open plays going to those types of pass catchers.
Very rarely this year have I seen Beasley break open with a sudden cut and then Allen throw him the ball. It is almost all screens or Beasley sitting in zone coverage. Last year he was a magician at separating on 3rd down with pure route running ability. I think that aspect of his game has gone away this year.
The rib injury is a possible excuse, but in a vacuum he's a small WR that will be 33 next season and he's coming off a down year. That isn't a player you spend $7.6 million on IMO. I'd accept the $1.5 million dead cap and get younger at the position.
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Joe Marino expanded on this on the latest Locked on Bills episode:
As he points out, despite Allen's stats being worse at home, the Bills win percentage is markedly better at home vs. on the road.
At home with Allen as the QB we have a 68.75% win percentage. On the road with Allen as the QB we have a 56.25% win percentage.
This is notable because over the last 3 seasons NFL teams on the whole have a win percentage of about 50% whether at home or on the road. Home field advantage has all but disappeared in recent years for most teams, but for us there's still a significant advantage.
That data is in line with what some people have theorized - Allen's stats are worse at home primarily because of Buffalo weather; since that weather tends to disrupt the other QB even more than it disrupts Allen, this leads to an overall home field advantage. Allen's rushing ability also gives us a firm advantage in bad weather compared to less mobile QBs.
Stats are cool. Wins are better.
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If the 17th game hadn't happened the Bills would likely not win the division. We would have one less win (WFT) while the Pats would have one less loss (Dallas). We would be 9-6, they would be 10-5 heading into the final week. If they beat Miami on Sunday, they would have been division champs.
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16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
A week where I agree with most of what Joe identifies. Especially the drop off from Harrison and Ed to our other DTs.
Losing Zimmer for the year has been more impactful than expected.
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1. The Bills have finally found their optimal starting O-line
Although you have to account for the quality of the opponent, it’s difficult to ignore just how good the Bills’ offensive line was against the Falcons. The collective effort was one of the best we’ve seen all season.
Pass blocking has long been the Bills’ strength, but they allowed only three pressures all game on 31 dropbacks.
Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins was once again one of the best players on the field. Even though he was responsible for one of the three pressures, it was his only lapse. The rest of the time, Dawkins dominated defenders with good footwork, a powerful punch to get them on the ground and nearly completely control the defender.
At right tackle, Spencer Brown struggled the most of the bunch. In the first half, he missed block attempts and allowed a pair of pressures. However, Brown turned it around in the second half and was one of the Bills’ best over the final 30 minutes.
Quote3. Tremaine Edmunds shows some early-career tendencies
Although middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has been a good starter for the Bills this season, he showed some early-career struggles against the Falcons that hadn’t been nearly as prevalent this season. It boiled down to difficulties in two areas: decisiveness and physicality. In run defending, Edmunds had a handful of opportunities where he should have gotten downhill, rushed the gap and gone for the tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. Instead, he was hesitant and played it safe.
He was pushed back on some block attempts where he needed to hold the point of attack. Even when he made the correct read and had an opportunity to make a tackle at the line, he let the ball carrier spin out and get a couple of yards.
Quote4. Devin Singletary maximized every opportunity
The run blocking was better than usual, but it still didn’t give Singletary massive rushing lanes to become the impact player he was on Sunday.
Instead, Singletary created for himself, made defenders miss, pushed through contact and was excellent in all of his rushing decisions — even behind some muddy rushing lanes. The decision-making was the most impressive part because one wrong turn on a handful of attempts could have resulted in a negative play. Instead, he made the most of every opportunity.
Quote5. The gap between starting and rotational DTs is widening
As impressive as Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips were on Sunday and over the last two months, it’s also providing a pretty large drop-off when they aren’t on the field.
The Bills used Lotulelei and Ankou on the field together for nine total snaps, and on those nine plays, the Falcons averaged 9.7 yards per play. On passing plays, the Falcons completed all four of their attempts for 51 yards, and a big reason was the Bills’ lack of pressure on quarterback Matt Ryan. Conversely, on 25 snaps that featured Oliver next to Phillips, the Falcons averaged only 2.04 yards per play. The Falcons were sacked four times on 14 passing plays against Oliver and Phillips and only went 5 of 10 for 42 yards.
Top 5 grades:
1) Dawkins (A-)
2) Oliver (A-)
3) Morse (A-)
4) Singletary (A-)
5) Phillips (B+)
Bottom 5 grades (worst to 5th worst)
1) Hughes (D+)
2) Edmunds (D+)
3) Jackson (C)
4) Ankou (C+)
5) Wallace (C+)
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Also QB stats are still dependent on the rest of the offense too. So while we're on the subject of regression let's point out that quite a few offensive players regressed this year. Even Diggs regressed slightly. Beasley is a shell of himself. The entire offensive line has gotten worse - in the case of Dawkins and Williams substantially worse. Moss was a legitimate part of the offense last year and this year became an afterthought. Really the only player that I would say took a significant leap forward is Knox. So we have an offense with an all around worse supporting cast facing defenses that have figured out our signature plays. IMO those factors are more responsible for Allen's regression than Allen himself, not that he is completely faultless.
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Despite the slight statistical regression I don't think Allen has regressed as a player at all. Defenses have just caught on to the scheme that he struggles against and he's had to adjust his game to beat it. That's life as a young QB. First he figured out how to beat man coverage, then zone blitzes, then cover 0, now he's figuring out how to beat cover 2 shell. Eventually Allen will have seen and beaten every defensive scheme under the sun.
It's crazy to me that people think QBs one day just stop getting better. Brady and Rodgers are playing some of their best football ever right now. Until Allen's body breaks down he will keep improving every year, and I think we are watching him slowly develop into one of the greatest players in NFL history. This year was just another step along that road.
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Around the League week 18
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014. Oh my god if they pull this off we could be certain to miss the Colts in the playoffs.