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HappyDays

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Posts posted by HappyDays

  1. Just now, letsgoteam said:

    I could quote several people on here but not going to. But to jump on what others are saying, they are being aggressive and that throw to Beasely on 3rd that was short of the sticks, might mean that everyone is on the same page about being aggressive and using all 4 downs.

     

    Yep if you know you're going for it on 4th down, getting those yards on 3rd down was a great choice by Allen. Smart football wins games.

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  2. 31 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

    We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

     

    This is the not the Bills debate I expected to have today but I'm here for it. There's a difference between correctly guessing 10 flips in a row before the first flip, and guessing the 10th flip alone after guessing the first 9 flips correctly. The chance of Allen calling the coin flip correctly tonight is 50%, and if you think you have an argument against that think a little harder.

     

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  3. 48 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

    It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

     

    Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

     

    What in the absolute hell. I'm sending this paragraph to Gino Biondini, I hope he gets back to me.

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