HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
He made two plays in a row. Which is more than Star and Phillips have made in two drives.
Oliver has been the best run defender on the line the past 2 weeks.
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This is embarrassing. They're just outmanning us. No trickery. Just beating us up.
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1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:
Take the 3
Sorry Yolo. You're banned from posting for one quarter.
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Jesus Daboll. That should not have taken 4 tries. Why do we sneak it on a yard and a half but wait until 4th down to sneak it from the goal line?
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Come on, just sneak it in.
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It's not worth a challenge. Just sneak it 4 times.
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Thank God we at least got the 1st down after the timeout.
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This is the game plan we should have had last week.
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Singletary in a phone booth is exciting to watch. Why haven't we been using him?
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I hate running kicks out of the endzone. Except when that happens.
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Everyone in the stadium knows the Redskins are going to run the ball. This is what concerned me coming into the game.
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How can they not get this figured out by now?
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Bad play call there but credit to Josh for toughing it out.
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Just now, par73 said:
Why hasn't Singletary been getting the ball more? Just wondering.
McDermott really loves his veterans, to a fault.
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Singletary is electric. Someone must have let Daboll know.
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Ed Oliver blew up that 2nd and 6.
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Look at us actually using Singletary and McKenzie.
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Amazing what a good run game can do for the offense.
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7 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
Uhm. That's one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at it is you want both of those teams to lose 4 games.
Why? I don't care if we're the 5th or 6th seed. Makes no difference. Just get into the playoffs. Every week I'm rooting for the outcome that makes that more likely.
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14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:
Why does everyone assume Texans win AFC South over the Colts?
Makes no difference to the Bills either way. I assume the one that doesn't win the South will be a wildcard. Root for both of them to win all of their games against other AFC opponents.
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Rooting interests today:
Houston over Jacksonville
Colts over Steelers (I'm assuming Colts get a wildcard at this point, don't let Steelers sneak into the picture)
Dolphins over Jets (for non-playoff reasons)
Panthers over Titans
Lions over Raiders
Packers over Chargers
Broncos over Browns
The other games don't matter enough for me to care.
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41 minutes ago, CommonCents said:
I mean, how did that point differential thing work out last week?
Last week the Bills were ranked 21st in DVOA and the Eagles were ranked 15th. Not sure where we were when we played New England but they are currently 2nd. We played them much closer than we played the Eagles though. DVOA isn't predictive in the way you think it is. I'm not sure any stat in the NFL is predictive. It's at most a 16 game sample size and teams change drastically from week to week.
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4 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:
The 49ers defense should be ranked a lot higher then Buffalos cause of who they have played.
That's not true at all. Going by DVOA the Bills defense has faced the 2nd easiest schedule, while SF's defense has faced the 4th easiest. The SF defense is definitely much better than ours regardless of strength of schedule. In pure VOA, they beat us by a whopping 36.3%. For context, the difference between our defense and the 2nd worst defense in the league is 34.7%. So the jump from 31 to 3 is less than the jump from 3 to 2. That's crazy. And New England is another 10.1% higher than SF. SF and New England are in an entirely different tier from everyone else in both VOA and DVOA.
The only issue with strength of schedule is it is not consistent. The Jets offense in week 1 was much better than the Jets offense in weeks 2 through 5. Certain teams match up better against others. We match up much better against the Patriots offense than the Eagles offense for example.
As the season goes on my prediction is that the discrepancy between our VOA and DVOA will start to come down. Playing Haskins over Keenum and Allen over Flacco will help even that out.
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Someone might have already pointed this out but there's quite a large discrepancy between our DVOA and our VOA. DVOA accounts for strength of opponent, VOA does not. It is a pure measurement of the value the team provides on a play to play basis. It still accounts for context like down and distance and game situation (i.e. a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 20 while down by 21 points is not as valuable as a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 9 while down by 3 points).
In DVOA we are ranked 25th, in VOA we are ranked 17th. Our total team value increases by 12.5% when you remove strength of opponent. Only two teams, the Titans and Patriots, have a larger discrepancy between DVOA and VOA.
The main cause of this discrepancy is our defense. In DVOA they are ranked 16th, in VOA they are ranked 3rd. Our defensive value increases by 10.1%, only the Patriots have a larger discrepancy.
So we are being affected by strength of schedule quite a bit in this analysis. I'm not sure how much, if at all, DVOA factors in QB changes. We've played Darnold and Fitzpatrick - is our defensive DVOA punished because other teams got to play Falk and Rosen?
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Around the NFL Week 9
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Oh my...