HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
According to this the Bills weren't even in the ballpark of the highest offer. So they were never a serious option to get him, turns out he was just chasing the money.
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Call the Cardinals. See if JJ Watt is available.
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Just now, BillsMafi$ said:
Bill O'Brien doesn't count as a source.
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If the Bills were 2nd in the running that means Beane made a serious offer. So even though this didn't work out I'm positive we'll sign an upper tier pass rusher this offseason. Like how after trying to trade for Antonio Brown he turned around and traded for Diggs. The best Bills pass rusher of 2021 is not on the team yet IMO.
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33 minutes ago, whatdrought said:
I wonder that too, but from everything I’ve seen it looks like we’re down within the 2-3 million range of varience. At very least it seems sure to be between 180-185. I would think teams could use that as a baseline at least to act, if they were so wanting to.
Yeah but there's no reason for teams to rush into it. It makes no difference if he signs now or he signs one day before free agency. For teams like us and the Packers and the Titans a $2 million difference is meaningful.
Unless I've missed something I haven't seen any team re-sign a player or pick up a 5th year option yet. The only moves I've seen so far are teams releasing players. That tells me teams are being extra cautious right now and no new player contracts will be inked until the NFL finalizes the cap number. Once that happens I bet Watt is signed somewhere within a couple days.
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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
I have to admit I'm getting lukewarm about Watt. I used to be excited about him coming to Buffalo, but if Buffalo isn't his clear choice, and it seems it isn't, then I'm less interested.
Beane is, so far as I can tell, very clear about how much he's willing to play. Beane doesn't spend a lot of time negotiating the money. If Buffalo were Watt's #1 choice, then he would either have taken Beane's best offer or crossed Buffalo off the list.
I just don't think any team will sign him until the final salary cap number is decided. A team like the Jaguars can offer him whatever they want to right now, but the contending teams all have a tight budget and they can't structure the deal without knowing what they're working with. Supposedly the NFL is waiting until their new TV contracts are negotiated and signed before finalizing the salary cap. Disney was the first domino to fall so hopefully we're close to finding out for sure.
But even if we don't sign Watt we know that Beane is making pass rusher a priority in free agency this year. IMO the best Bills edge rusher of 2021 isn't on the team yet. If it isn't Watt, someone else in that 2nd or 3rd tier will be a Bill this season.
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You should have stopped at 10 reaction emojis. Your gluttony has doomed us all.
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On 2/24/2021 at 11:37 AM, Thurman#1 said:
And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team. You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.
I think every draft is different though. This draft in particular there doesn't appear to be great depth, especially at positions of need for the Bills. Also with covid restrictions on the 2020 college season, the combine, and player meetings, scouting the mid-rounds is a lot harder than usual. And it is unlikely in any draft that you'll get a player at #30 that you have a 1st round grade one.
So it's a matter of value. Let's say a player that Beane has a 1st round grade on drops to #25, and he has to give up our low 3rd round pick to get him. Would you rather have one player with a 1st round grade, or two players with a 2nd round grade and a borderline 3rd/4th round grade? It isn't as clear cut as "more picks give you more chances." If you give a player a 1st round grade it's because you believe he can impact the team from day 1 and become a franchise cornerstone player. If you trust your scouting you should always value that type of player more than 2 players that you just see as moderate contributors.
Of course the risk comes from the fact that if you trade up you HAVE to be right about the player. Trading up for Edmunds doesn't look too good in retrospect because he hasn't shown that he can definitively be a franchise cornerstone which is what you expect from your 1st round players.
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7 minutes ago, Augie said:
I hear what you are saying, and I’d like to strengthen the front 7 on D and maybe upgrade at #2 CB. BUT, I sure wish we could finish out a game running the ball and moving the chains even when they know what’s coming. I don’t know if it’s the players, the scheme or the emphasis, but we NEED to be able to run the ball. At times we made it look easy, and other times it looked nearly impossible.
PLEASE fix that!
I think it's hard to find offensive linemen that are good at pass blocking and rush blocking. Given a choice between the two I'll take pass blocking, no question. Lack of speed in the backfield plus the scheme were more responsible for our issues running the ball IMO. As far as our pass blocking we were actually quite good this past season, the Chiefs were really the only team that had our number and again I think that's more of a scheme/preparation issue than talent issue.
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3 hours ago, Bulldog said:
I realize that team "needs" are a matter of debate - however, unless the OL needs are heavily covered in FA (doubtful) - then I think there may be significant agreement that the OL should be addressed sometime prior to the 6th round.
Meh I think many fans are over exaggerating o-line as a big need. The Bills line was fine last year. Every year in recent memory there have been a few teams with particularly awful o-lines, a couple with elite o-lines, and the rest all middle of the pack. Middle of the pack is where the Bills were last year and these days that's good enough. It's really hard to build a consistently great o-line. If we had the exact same o-line as last year without any changes I wouldn't bat an eye.
The one question mark right now is Williams. If we don't bring him back RT is a pretty big need. Even in that context I don't believe o-line is 1st round value unless you're talking about a LT. Sign a couple mid-level starters if needed and draft o-line on day 2 and 3. Keep building the pipeline but don't reach for talent at a position that isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.
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Not exactly a release, but:
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This sounds more like he was just speculating than any inside info he has.
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If I had to guess the player this regime will fall in love with is Owusu-Koramoah. He fills Milano's spot and also does the role they were hoping to fill with Kyle Dugger last year. I could see us trading up for him if he falls to 20.
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Yes, if they structure it right they may even be able to reduce his cap hit for 2021. Most analysts expect the cap to go up a lot in 2023 so we can have it accelerate at that point.
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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:
Good teams need to find cheap contributors in the third round to fill the less sexy holes at DT, G and maybe even CB2...
Yeah but we're trying to go from good team to championship team. We have enough contributors. Plus this year it's more difficult than ever to scout mid to late round players. You're betting on guys with limited college tape, no combine, limited player visits and pro days. Versus trading up for an x factor like Toney or Owusu-Koramoah where you know they can make game changing plays on day one. No amount of extra contributors would have beaten the Chiefs last year.
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2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
The post I was referring to wants to trade up .. do you want to give up first and third for him?
Absolutely. Look at the 3rd rounders this regime has drafted. Phillips, Knox, Singletary, Moss. I know that's a bit of an oversimplification since there are some good players drafted in the 3rd round. But we don't need contributors, we need day one difference makers. I'll gladly give up a 3rd to make sure we get one.
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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
if you ask me who has a better chance of being elite at his position in 5 years time Greg Newsome or Boogie Basham or Alex Leatherwood I don't even hesitate. It's Newsome. He might have a lower floor than those two guys possibly but we need to take some swings on difference makers. We have plenty of good players. Get some guys who are going to make some game turning plays.
Yeah that's the type of player we need to take the next step in our Super Bowl aspirations. I'm totally against drafting any o-line or d-line player in the 1st round this year. In general I don't like drafting o-linemen in the 1st outside of LT and the value at d-line won't be there this year. Reading up on Newsome I would be okay with the pick. Sounds like he has a knack for getting his hands on the ball and plays fast. My one reservation is I don't know that upgrading Levi Wallace makes a difference in beating the Chiefs. I want my 1st round pick to make that kind of difference now. Unfortunately at #30 that type of player probably won't be available. I know you don't like drafting a RB in the 1st but if Etienne is still there he would be the one player that could make that kind of difference.
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26 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
The Bills offense was fantastic for most of 2020 though and it went beyond Diggs... I hope we are not reading too much into what happened in the Chiefs playoff game though... there are some excuses.. the Bills receivers were a little nicked up.. the refs allowed them to get mugged all day and the Bills coaches called a conservative game plan...
I think every decision we make this offseason needs to be with the mindset of beating the Chiefs. They aren't a flash in the pan team, they'll be our primary obstacle to the Super Bowl for years to come. The two biggest things we need to beat them are pass rush and home run threats on offense. I'm not banking on us getting a stud pass rusher at #30 so we'll have to address that in free agency. So if Toney or Etienne are available that's the direction I'd go. We're missing explosiveness on both sides of the ball. That's why I'd be okay trading up for Owusu-Koramoah or Toney. Get some speed on this team to match up with the Chiefs.
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16 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
I think Toney is a luxury the Bills cant afford this year... What would a good year look for him in 2021 considering the other WR's on the team...500 yards?
We are badly missing home run threats on offense. Diggs is the only player that defenses have to really game plan around and it's too easy to take that away when you don't have to respect anyone else. Toney looks like a nightmare to defend. If defenses want to play deep zone, Toney will punish them for it in the flats. Manufacture ways to get him the ball like the Chiefs do with Hardman and watch him fly.
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9 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:
That's the same every year and you always see teams trading out of the late first round. It only takes a guy or two to fall or a couple of people to go too early or better yet a team to fall in love with a guy like Beane did with Edmunds. There will be opportunities to drop back and pick up an extra pick in 2021 or next year. New England did in 2020, and Seattle, Rams, and Colts all traded out of the low first round in 2019.
Yeah but you have to look at who's actually drafting at the top of round 2 and what they have to offer. In that context I don't see many trade up candidates. Jaguars already have two 1st round picks, they don't need another one. We would never trade with the Jets or Dolphins. Falcons only have 6 picks total this year and are in major cap trouble, they need more players not less. The Eagles are the only option I see that makes sense, after trading Wentz they have draft picks to burn. If they really like Leatherwood and want to jump the Chiefs they are an option for us to trade down and maybe pick up their 3rd rounder... but also this is Beane we're talking about, I think it would kill him to move down 8 spots and lose out on a potential 5th year option down the road.
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6 hours ago, whorlnut said:
I just can’t get behind a first round corner in any way. Not even close to our biggest need. We need to add an athletic edge, playmaker on offense, or an OT.
I mostly agree, can't get too excited about drafting a CB2 in the 1st round. But we're talking about pick #30. There aren't going to be any options that will blow you away at that spot. Doing some reading on Newsome he does look like a perfect scheme fit and a good complement for what we get from White. He seems athletic enough to keep up with the Tyreek Hills of the league. Also with Milano likely walking and the front 4 likely seeing modest at best improvements this offseason, we might need better coverage on the back end if we want our defense to have any chance of stopping good offenses. So personally I would rather we draft a different position but if we pick a CB2 as long as they actually have athleticism like Newsome does I'll be satisfied. If we draft a slow, low upside "instinctual" corner that is a pick I would hate.
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
the Steelers I think would at #24 and the Jags at #25 and they are doable with our 3rd rounder. So if an impact player drops to there... Pittsburgh... then it is possible IMO.
Jacksonville was my immediate thought. They are in full rebuild mode and have enough high end picks already where they can afford to move down a little in exchange for another young talented player. If Beane has a 1st round grade on any player left at #25 that's where I'd expect us to make a move.
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Watt to Cardinals (bills were Cardinals biggest competition per report)
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by HappyDays
The Athletic article directly contradicts that:
Sounds like there were multiple teams that guaranteed $20 million and the Bills weren't one of them. Doesn't seem like Matthew Fairburn is just speculating. I think this information comes directly from the Bills.