HappyDays

I'd like to think that the shared insanity of the last 48 hours and all the stories of Bills fans digging the players out of the snow will snap this team out of whatever funk they've been in the last two weeks.

Tough catch, sure, but makeable. Something our passing offense has been lacking is those difficult clutch plays made by our pass catchers in crunch time. Diggs is the only one that's made those plays at all. Davis against the Jets and Knox against the Vikings had opportunities to make big game-changing catches at the end and couldn't do it. Even Diggs despite making one incredible catch on 3rd and long failed to make a difficult catch on another 3rd and long later in the game. The Vikings won because their guy made catches like that multiple times, come to think of it I don't think a single pass that ended up anywhere in Jefferson's vicinity hit the ground.

Official.

If this is legit we'll probably get the announcement soon. This is for the best anyways, I was worried about our offense vs Cleveland's offense in heavy snow.

We've had this issue since Daboll was the OC. Too many times Allen and his intended target are not on the same page. I've wondered if maybe we have the wrong players for the system we run? It requires cerebral WRs. That's why Julian Edelman was a star in the system, not because of his abilities but because he knew the system so well and played off of Brady to perfection. Guys like Davis and Knox don't strike me as cerebral pass catchers, they are physical freaks. Ideally you'd want them winning with their athleticism and not thinking too much. Diggs fits the system well, I think Shakir could too with some seasoning, but I'm not sure about the other guys.

I for one am going to miss the vague inside info that invites 40 pages of baseless speculation.

A heady player makes sure to subtly bring the DB out of bounds with him. But again I'm not necessarily blaming McKenzie for that, it's a tough play and maybe he doesn't know the rule. The problem is as Peterson intercepts the ball McKenzie still just stands there casually watching him run down field while our QB with an injured elbow makes the extra effort to bring him down. If I'm the coach he's sitting down for the next couple games after that disgusting lack of effort.

If he pulls Peterson out of bounds with him, Peterson isn't allowed to touch the ball. It's a niche rule so maybe he didn't know it. But he definitely shouldn't just stand there watching when Peterson intercepts it and runs down the field, like he doesn't even care. Personally I would inactivate McKenzie next week after seeing that on tape. You can't be a clumsy undependable player and also have your head that far out of the game. Send him a message.

Thank you for posting this. This cements the fact that saying Allen was the primary reason for this loss is a laughable take. He and Diggs are the only reason we did anything on offense. No schemed easy throws, no screens, poor pass protection, predictable route combinations. It's amazing watching this video how many times there is no one open at the same time pressure gets into the pocket and Allen still somehow turns it into a big play. Over and over again JTO says "where do you want him to throw the ball?" and there's just nothing there. Like he says Allen is carrying the offense up and down the field all game long. It sucks that his worst throw was his last one. That doesn't erase everything he did before that. Honestly my biggest fear is that Allen will internalize that last interception too much and stop playing his style of game. They have to let Josh be Josh, just dial it back in the red zone a bit. And please please please get a run game going. The Vikings on every snap are dropping everyone deep into passing lanes because they know we won't punish them for it. It's been four years of this crap. They have to fix it.

I would bet that exactly zero people who post these charts have any idea where the calculation comes from. Is it team specific? Does it account for the flow of the game? Personally I think it's all junk statistics that everyone has decided to believe without questioning.

Can anyone here explain how this chart is calculated? What data is being used in the algorithm? Who created it and what are their qualifications?

I can't think of a single time being aggressive has helped the team this year. Against the Chiefs it in fact cost us twice, but luckily they weren't able to capitalize on it. I don't trust the analytics charts that claim to prove which teams make good decisions on 4th down. They just started popping up one day and everyone took them as gospel. I believe that you should always take points or field position until it becomes obvious that you need to be aggressive. I know that is an unpopular opinion these days but I have seen it happen more times than not where overly aggressive coaches have actually hurt their team. I get being overly aggressive if you have a young/rebuilding team that is clearly inferior to your opponent most weeks, like the Giants under Daboll. It makes sense to get a team like that some early confidence that they can match up against a superior roster, but our roster is well beyond that point. The Patriots have done it the right way every time for two decades, they just let the game come to them. Brandon Staley thought he would revolutionize the game and instead he is on the hot seat. I guess I'm a little bit old school on that point.

The Dolphins loss I fully attribute to injuries/heat exhaustion. The Jets loss is more on Allen. The Vikings loss I blame mostly on coaching. The fact that we've won some of the games we have with such a high point differential despite the injury issues is a testament to how well the coaching staff has prepared everyone on the roster from the top down. Dorsey in particular has been a weak link over the past couple games and doesn't really have excuses. McDermott and Frazier have been handicapped by roster attrition. Losing sucks, especially for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. I have no doubt there is some discomfort in the locker room that any reporter who hangs around the players a bit will notice. I just don't believe there is some larger issue bubbling under the surface.

Personally I think it's silly that these "internal issues" are suddenly coming to light after two losses. Mike Florio was saying something before the season about how he had heard from people close to the team that there was a lot of pressure on the coaching staff that was possibly getting to them. Then we blew out our first two opponents and he coincidentally went silent about our supposed issues. Long story short things are great when we're winning, things are not great when we're losing. The biggest internal issue we've had this year is injuries. I know no one wants to hear excuses but that's the reality, same as it was for the Ravens last year and the 49ers the year before that.

The big game changing plays were more of a necessity when he wasn't playing at a consistent level. Now that he is playing so well and not making big mistakes the turnovers are a luxury. Milano has had problems catching the ball this year too but we accept it because he does everything else so well.

What god did the Bills piss off in the offseason? Can't wait for the report tomorrow that a horde of locusts chewed holes through all of our practice footballs.

Most #2 WRs don't have just a couple routes that defenses can key in on. Most top tier offenses have wrinkles they put into their red zone play calls. It's hard enough to make plays happen in the compressed area of the field without defenses also knowing exactly what you want to do. Considering how poor our red zone offense has been this year (currently 21st in red zone TD% with 52.94%) I'm not going to chalk it up to just regular film study. It's too predictable and uncreative right now.

Here's Patrick Peterson breaking it down: We have a big problem if opposing defenses know exactly what route we're going to run and where Allen will throw the ball based on the coverage. He basically says that Davis only runs a couple routes and pretty much always runs inside post in the red zone. That makes it way too easy for a veteran DB to make a play on the ball. Dorsey needs to add some red zone wrinkles, fast. We've been figured out.

PFF grade or no, I have done a total 180 on Edmunds this year and now want us to re-sign him. The defense clearly looks different without him. He's stopped making some of the head scratching plays. I don't mind that he doesn't make game changing turnovers, I'll take the consistency.

The ball that hit Knox in the hands in the end zone was ridiculously over aggressive?

Sure. We have been awful in short yardage situations. We had mostly been moving the ball just fine against the Vikings. In general this year our offense is able to move the ball right until they reach the red zone and then they get stymied. I almost always believe in taking the points until it becomes obvious that you have to go for it. Keep the game in front of you.

Why does it matter how many scores we are up with 10 minutes left in the 4th? This is what I mean. We're trying to win the game 10 minutes early. There's no need for it. If we go up by 13 there we are likely one FG drive away from icing the game no matter what the Vikings do on their next possession. You trust your offense to get one more FG drive and your defense to not allow 3 scoring drives with 10 minutes left in the game. By failing to take the points we changed the math. Now the Vikings only needed to score twice even if we kicked a FG, and that is exactly what happened.

Here's Dan Orlovsky breaking down two separate drives where we had 2nd and 2 and failed to do anything with it: Defenses are not even pretending to play the run in these situations. We have to figure it out.