HappyDays

I've been somewhat unimpressed with his understanding of leverage and making himself available to his QB. Which is a shame because I actually loved him as a draft prospect specifically because he appeared to have the right cerebral traits. Kelce is possibly the GOAT not just because of his physical traits but because he can read defenses as well as an elite QB. I've seen too many plays this year where Allen is expecting Kincaid to be somewhere or adjust his route and it just doesn't happen. And I'd guess that's why his role has mainly been limited to quick passes where he doesn't have to think and can just use his natural athleticism to create YAC. I could see him breaking out next year if the game has slowed down for him.

Bills 31 Broncos 20 I really like this matchup for us. It was the best of the possible wildcard matchups IMO. On offense Denver can't run the ball very well and they don't have a lot of playmaking talent in general. It's a middling supporting cast led by a rookie QB coming to Orchard Park for his first ever playoff game. These are the kinds of matchups where our defense tends to stack negative plays. On defense Denver's two biggest strengths are somewhat neutralized by what we do well. They have a shutdown CB who can singlehandedly take a WR out of the game, but we don't rely on one WR. They have a great pass rush but we have very good pass protection and a QB that negates a good pass rush better than any QB in history. The leash is off Allen to run around and stiff arm LBs as he sees fit. I just can't see our offense scoring less than 30 under those circumstances, even against a great defense like Denver. So if we keep them below 30 we win.

They'll have a hard time selling any candidate other than Ben Johnson (or Vrabel if he wasn't already practically the Pats coach), and I just don't see that match happening at this point. They'd sell Monken as the coach that turned Lamar Jackson into a perennial MVP candidate supported by an elite run game. I could see Liam Coen as another option, sold to the fans as the coach that turned Mayfield's career around.

Pats - Mike Vrabel, done deal. Jets - Steve Spagnuolo. They reportedly requested to interview him today and it feels like a move Woody Johnson would make. Being in the NY market he saw firsthand what Spagnuolo did in 2007. And I can see Woody getting taken in by his "championship DNA". No one really wants the job anyways and they need a bridge head coach more than he needs a long term answer. I just can't bring myself to seriously predict Rex Ryan. (Also I'll admit some wishful thinking on my part - I would love to see KC lose Spagnuolo) Bears - Todd Monken. I feel like you have to make one out of left field prediction if you want to be realistic because there's always one every cycle. The Bears reportedly put in a request to interview Monken so I have some basis for this prediction. I think they will want to get an offensive head coach after the Eberflus experiment failed. I know Ben Johnson is the hot name here but I think he's going to sit this cycle out yet again... Chicago doesn't seem like a very attractive job because Caleb Williams was pretty bad this year and showed little to no growth over the course of the season, and they're in a brutal division. Monken feels like the perfect "no one else will really consider me so I'll take any of the 32 jobs I can get," and I could see Chicago's ownership convincing themselves Monken can get Caleb Williams headed in the right direction after what he's done in Baltimore. Saints - Aaron Glenn. This is a tough one. I don't think Brady wants this job or else I'd predict him. The situation here is too messy. The Saints need what Buffalo needed when they hired McDermott - a leader of men who they'll be patient with and allow him to transform the culture. I think Glenn fits that bill given everything I've heard about him out of Detroit. Jaguars - Liam Cohen. For the same logic @GunnerBill used, I have nothing to add. Again I almost want to say Joe Brady but the more I think about it the more I think he is one cycle away from getting a job. One more year coaching an elite offense led by Josh Allen and he'll have his pick of the litter. Raiders - Brian Flores. Again with the same logic Gunner used. I can't find another candidate that makes sense.

Anthony Barr indirectly became a Buffalo sports legend.

Hey to be fair, that injury report was for the divisional round. So there's still time for the worst case scenario to unfold! This post is brought to you by the worst person you know.

And that is 100% fair. As someone that supported the Coleman pick even before we made it I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend his rookie season was anything more than what it was. He needs to progress or else he'll never be more than a complementary piece, kind of like what Mack Hollins was for us this year, and that result isn't worth a high 2nd round pick. The frustrating thing for me is the line appeared to be trending way up in the Tennessee-Seattle games. I thought he had figured it out and was about to become a centerpiece of the offense. Instead he had a bad game against Miami, then got injured, and when he came back from injury he was back to his pre-Tennessee form and plateaued from there. So that's my one lingering disappointment, that he didn't end the season notably better than he started. Pending his performance in the playoffs, of course.

I mean any offense is better when it spreads the ball around and doesn't rely on one guy, everybody agrees with that. That doesn't take away from how middling our pass catchers have been though. Re-posting from the MVP thread: Allen is making this group much much MUCH more than the other way around. It is a perfectly mediocre group of weapons led by an all-time great QB and a very good OL.

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function.

Above average in this case is a bad thing because it means we faced perfect coverage more than the average offense. Looking at that chart it looks like Allen faced perfect coverage about 38% of the time. Here's perfect coverage defined by PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-effect-perfectly-covered-plays-nfl-offenses I don't think it's a failing of scheme for the most part, it's more the personnel. We shake off coverage at a below average rate. But Allen manages to average out a positive outcome on those plays, which has to be unprecedented I would think. More fuel to add to Allen's MVP case: Allen is at the very bottom of average WR separation while Lamar is at the very top.

So basically Allen faces perfect coverage at an above average rate, and is the only QB that has a positive EPA in those scenarios which is absurd.

Wow. Whoever gave Tua that extension should face the consequences. Hopefully Chris Grier can track him down.

Bills 31 Broncos 20 I really like this matchup for us. It was the best of the possible wildcard matchups IMO. On offense Denver can't run the ball very well and they don't have a lot of playmaking talent in general. It's a middling supporting cast led by a rookie QB coming to Orchard Park for his first ever playoff game. These are the kinds of matchups where our defense tends to stack negative plays. On defense Denver's two biggest strengths are somewhat neutralized by what we do well. They have a shutdown CB who can singlehandedly take a WR out of the game, but we don't rely on one WR. They have a great pass rush but we have very good pass protection and a QB that negates a good pass rush better than any QB in history. The leash is off Allen to run around and stiff arm LBs as he sees fit. I just can't see our offense scoring less than 30 under those circumstances, even against a great defense like Denver. So if we keep them below 30 we win.

It does make sense because the Patriots have a very attractive job waiting for one of the hot head coaching candidates, and the Giants don't. They are in purgatory with relatively limited cap space and no chance at one of the top QBs in the upcoming draft. Nobody wants that job. Kraft clearly wants Vrabel and made the move now to make sure he gets him. It's a pretty unique situation. If Drake Maye looked like crap all year I bet Mayo would still be there, but a blooming franchise QB creates immediate urgency to find the right coach. It's gross to say but I respect Kraft for making the difficult but correct decision.

So the good news is that his usage yesterday wasn't real. It was literally just non-stop jump balls regardless of his leverage or the coverage scheme. In fact I would bet anything the team schemed those up intentionally to get him some reps and get some teachable moments on film in a meaningless game. They know what Coleman's strengths are at this point in his career. He'll be used appropriately in the playoffs.

Here's the most worrying stat as we enter the playoffs: So on average we are allowing a FG on every single drive against playoff opponents. Considering our defense's history in the playoffs that's really concerning. The Ravens as a comparison: So compared to our likely divisional round opponent we are giving up over a full point per drive more. And the Ravens have the best offense vs playoff opponents in the entire league. It's a lot to overcome. Let's hope Babich and McDermott have been sandbagging a bit and have something special planned for the playoffs.

Nobody wants to hear this but the real evaluation for Coleman starts next year. He was a player you drafted for the long term, not for year one. He has no idea what he's doing out there, he's just getting by on pure physical ability. Like Spencer Brown his first couple years. Hopefully Adam Henry can do what Aaron Kromer did. I wish Coleman had built on his game against Seattle, unfortunately he got injured and then regressed and kind of plateaued the rest of the season. But he's going to be just 22 years old in May. He comes from primarily a basketball background. So this is not a finished product. Supposedly he has a great work ethic and I know he spent a good chunk of this past offseason at a private camp with a WR coach. He needs to put in a ton of work this offseason and learn the nuances of the position, while probably un-learning some of what he knows from his basketball days.

I'm still a no on trading a ton of capital to Garrett and then handing him a massive contract. I'm beyond believing that this defense is ever going to be the thing that gets us a Super Bowl. Of course that doesn't mean ignore the defense entirely. But our biggest investments should be used to support the best thing our franchise has going. Give me a stacked offense that can score at will with just an average playoff defense and I'm happy.

I just don't worry about defensive teams at all. I know playoff Josh Allen with his leash off and with a healthy set of weapons and OL can put up 30+ against any opponent. The great thing about Denver is they don't have an offense capable of dragging us into a shootout.

Such a perfect opponent for the wildcard round. Just don't let a rookie QB playing in cold weather beat you. Vegas knows.

Honestly great move for their organization. The coaching was abysmal this year and they have a great candidate waiting in the wings to lead their exciting young QB. Maybe it's not fair to Mayo but he did nothing to give them confidence this year. As a Bills fan I hate this. At least Vrabel won't have a stockpile of high picks waiting for him.

I can't get used to the speed of the ball coming out of his hand. Really not looking forward to the day Josh retires.

No one wants the Pats to be good again for at least the next 10 years. In fact let's call it 20.

Can't the team just agree to give it to him? I know it's extremely unlikely but I would hate to lose our punter one week before the playoffs on a completely pointless rep. Guy must have the least reps in the entire NFL, just give him his money.