HappyDays

You're ascribing a trend to a statistic that doesn't have one. One score games are 50% games, period, over a large enough sample size. If you take any massive sample size of an event with 50/50 odds and you split that sample size into random chunks, the individual chunks are not likely to all come out 50/50. One chunk might even come out 90/10 just because of random chance. But there is not inherently something meaningful about any one of those individual chunks, it is just how statistical dispersion works. As an example Josh Allen was 9-0 in his opening coin tosses last year. If you were told that something with 50/50 odds happened 9 times to zero you might assume some human element was involved. But there wasn't one. It's just a coin flip. Also, one score games are not inherently meaningful results. If the Chiefs lead by 14 points in 3 games and give up a garbage time TD in each, they are 3-0 in close games over that period. I don't know if that's what happened in a large number of their one score game wins, but we can agree those games shouldn't count, yes? And the issue is you haven't separated the games that should count from the games that shouldn't. Similarly there were several close games where the Bills scored a late TD to pull ahead by two scores and as a result they don't get credit for a one score win because they played too well to get that result. So the records you posted simultaneously have too much data and not enough data. Even if you managed to separate all of the meaningful data out and post the resulting records, we still come back to the coin flip problem. It's human nature to find trends. But a lot of data is just random. You want to know the best way to avoid losing a close game? Don't end up in one. Close games become coin flips. One drop, one blown coverage, one missed FG decides the game. When the Bills lose one score games it isn't typically because of one bad coaching moment in crunch time, it's because of a series of bad coaching decisions or bad player execution that led to the game becoming a coin flip game, or sometimes it's because we simply played an equal game with an equal opponent and came down on the wrong side at the end. And all of that is true in close games that we won except we came down on the right side.

Usually I don't like analysis that pretends to know what the reads were. But it looks like Hamler's route on the right is a designed pick play that worked perfectly and Russ never looked in that direction.

Amazon marketed themselves as an updated football broadcast. With the live all-22 footage and more entertaining panel so far I am very impressed.

I like this TNF panel.

If I were the head coach that won the coin toss I would choose to defer

At least Alec Pierce looks like he cares. He's singlehandedly keeping this drive going.

This is the funniest game I've ever watched. It's so bad it's looped back around to become entertaining.

If Trent Edwards was getting paid $200 million

I just woke up my son because I yelled "WHAT?" after that interception.

A few years ago I was at Bills training camp and I ended up standing near an area where the players walked to the field from the locker room. I was just trying to find the bathroom and all of a sudden I see Kyle Williams walking towards me and a bunch of other fans around me with jerseys held out ready to get signed. I had a Tremaine Edmunds jersey on, it was his rookie season. I hand the jersey to Kyle and I blurt out "Kyle you're my favorite Bill of all time." He looks at me and says deadpan "then why aren't you wearing my jersey?" then chuckled and signed it and handed it back to me. Lorenzo Alexander came right after him and signed it. Then the punter Colton Schmidt walks up like a man on a mission, he was looking for a jersey to sign and I happened to be standing there. So I now have a Tremaine Edmunds jersey signed by Kyle Williams, Lorenzo Alexander, and Colton Schmidt.

My favorite type of football gambling is putting up $10 on a parlay with crazy low odds with a really big potential payout. Not stressful at all, just fun, and no chance of it ruining your life. If you bet $10 on every spread of the week in a single parlay the potential payout is something like $100K. You'll never actually win but it makes the weekend more interesting.

Gave him a C+ with the 4th worst ranking on the team. Hamlin has been passable, that's about as much as you can reasonably expect.

https://theathletic.com/3660688/2022/10/05/bills-all-22-film-review-ravens?source=user-shared-article Top 5 grades: 1) Matt Milano (A-) 2) Von Miller (A-) 3) Jordan Poyer (A-) 4) DaQuan Jones (B+) 5) Josh Allen (B+) Bottom 5 grades: 1) Ryan Bates (C-) 2) Prince Emili (C) 3) Gave Davis (C) 4) Damar Hamlin (C+) 5) AJ Epenesa (C+)

I heard that teef is a bad banana, with a greasy black peel.

Bills 23 Steelers 10 I expect us to still look somewhat lethargic on offense but slowly pull away as our defense dominates them. There's something about the Ravens and Steelers that always draws us into a close game. Doesn't matter what players they have on the field. It just becomes a slugfest. If TJ Watt was in this game I'd actually feel fairly concerned. Without him I don't think the Steelers can make enough big time plays to keep it close after 3 quarters.

Your trolling in the Bills/Steelers thread is weak. This right here is A+ trolling. You might even have a future in it.

The fake retirement had nothing to do with it. The whole story on that has come out now - Brady fake retired because he was trying to force himself off the Bucs and team up with Sean Payton in Miami. He "un-retired" because that plot was blown up by Brian Flores and Brady never wanted to stop playing in the first place. So instead he went with the option behind door #2 - force Bruce Arians out in Tampa Bay (because he never got along with him) and insert a generic head coach who wouldn't have the balls to disagree with anything Brady said. The divorce was probably going to happen either way.

I liked the Masked Singer theory better.

My takeaway from these charts is that "series conversion rate" is a poor way to rank offenses and defenses. It seemingly rewards offenses that dink and dunk their way down the field whether they get in the end zone or not, and punishes defenses that bend but don't break. DVOA is my favorite statistic but I will say it's still way too early to make sweeping judgments about supposed trends. Even analytics people recognize this - DVOA doesn't start fully adjusting for opponent until after week 10. We just finished the extended preseason portion of the regular season. The team that will eventually win the Super Bowl is not playing their best football right now. Trends will change and teams will evolve. 50% of our games have been in less than ideal conditions (in more ways than one), and there's not a ton of meaningful data to be mined from such a small sample size in even the best of statistical conditions. The Bills team that blew out the Rams and Titans and mostly scored at will against them is still there. A series of attrition and poor weather in our last two games has brought us down to earth somewhat. I don't see a long-term trend there - I see two separate sample sizes in entirely different contexts with predictably different results.

I do think he lingered on Andrews a tick too long, and in the NFL a tick is an eternity. Personally if I were a Ravens fan I would be more frustrated at the OL for allowing quick pressure without a blitzer.

Thank you for saying this. Still photo QB analysis is my least favorite kind of analysis. By the time Lamar should have been looking to the other side of the field the pressure had already gotten to him. I don't think this was a horrible play from him, the defense covered his first read and got pressure before he moved on. Then Poyer made the instinctual play to take away the one open WR. The one thing you can criticize Lamar for is throwing a wobbler off his back foot in the red zone because an interception there is the worst possible outcome.

Yeah and I remember some people on here saying we invested too much into the DL and the secondary. Turns out we needed every bit of that investment just to field a starting caliber defense in the first quarter of the season. Nobody knows what depth a team will end up needing. All you can do is build the best depth you can in as many spots as possible and cross your fingers that it doesn't have to get tested too much. 3-1 in the toughest 4 game stretch of our schedule with this many injuries means that Beane did his job building the roster. Perfect, no. But I'll stack our depth against any team in the league.