HappyDays

We probably have enough cap space to afford one splash player after all available restructures are executed. Do we really want to use that one splash signing on a LB? That logic applies to Wagner and Edmunds. It's time to make a splash signing on offense.

Turning down generational wealth to risk earning even more generational wealth is the start of an unfortunate parable. Maybe the risk will be worth it in the end. But it's the similar mindset of a gambler who wins big and then bets it all on red. He's one awkward hit away from having his life ruined.

Nobody is trying to discredit Mahomes. The point is that he had better pass catchers and better RBs and a better OL and better play design and play calling. Allen literally had no advantage over him at any level of the offense. If the Chiefs ran it back with the same exact offensive cast as last year no one would bat an eye. If the Bills did everyone would expect disappointment. That's the point. We have a ton of work to do to catch up to the other contenders.

I would love a possession number 2 "at best." That's what Beasley was for us in 2020 which was arguably when our passing offense looked the most consistent. Davis is not a possession receiver or a #2. He's a boom or bust downfield option that primarily should be a #3 target "at best" in a championship caliber passing offense. That's what he was for us in 2020 and looked like a perfect fit in that role.

Why do you just throw JuJu in as an exception as if that doesn't change your entire argument? His best season by far was in 2018. 1,400 yards and 7 TDs. Then Antonio Brown left and he had a few injury plagued seasons. He signed for a prove-it one year deal not because he isn't talented but because of his injury history. This year he stayed mostly healthy and once again had a #1 elite target drawing attention away from him. Only on here is it a debate between JuJu and Gabe Davis. In the rest of the NFL world everyone knows JuJu has the talent to be a #2 target. Davis was a fun fantasy football debate in the offseason but after failing to take advantage of his opportunity he has dropped out of the national radar. Analysts like Greg Cosell and Chris Simms talk about it all the time - Allen has less around him than any other QB that's worth a damn.

Related, Cover 1 released their annual salary cap podcast yesterday: It's nearly 2 hours long but a great listen. Just by restructuring Allen's and Miller's contracts, which is almost certain to happen, we will free up enough salary to be below the cap. And then there's a bunch of other moves we can make to free up plenty of other space to make some moves this offseason.

From what I've heard about Moulds he has basically an entire payroll of single mothers. Hooking up with him at the right time of the month was a common retirement plan 20 years ago.

There is not nearly enough attention given to Allen's UCL injury. I think that alone could explain why the offense became so boom or bust in the second half of the season. Deep throws aren't as dependent on elbow flexion. Short and intermediate throws are. I saw a noticeable dip in Allen's short and intermediate accuracy after that Jets game. I think there was a concerted effort to hide the injury as much as possible so we lost some of those rhythm throws that I know Allen can hit in his sleep. Diggs is at his best on those intermediate throws. Once we lost consistency to that area his production tapered off. It's also possible that defenses figured out how to take Diggs out of the game once they had enough film on Dorsey's scheme.

He'll be 31 this year and hasn't had a good season since 2020. I would take him as a last resort option if we can't get one of the better veteran WRs that will be available. Would much prefer a clear upgrade though, not a shot in the dark.

They had two #1s in Kelce and Hill. They got rid of one. But that came after a concerted effort to build an elite OL after they got trounced in Super Bowl LV. They gave an $80 million contract to Joe Thuney, they traded a 1st for Orlando Brown, they hit on two picks in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. And most importantly they have one of the greatest offensive minds of all time at the helm. I don't personally expect Dorsey to suddenly become Andy Reid or for us to develop an elite OL in one offseason. I also don't expect Davis to be better than JuJu Smith-Schuster. So, the easiest and most realistic avenue of improvement for our offense this offseason is upgrading Davis. The Chiefs also aren't the only example of a championship caliber team. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown. The 49ers traded for McCaffrey. The Bengals drafted Chase just one year after drafting Tee Higgins. Adding offensive weapons to an already talented offense is a proven method of making a team championship caliber. In the case of the Bengals they did it even with an average at best OL.

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him. But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years. JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible. Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work. So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

It isn't just Edmunds' words. Beane has locked up all of his cornerstones early - Allen, Dawkins, White, Knox, Hyde, Diggs. The only exception I can think of is Milano where we seemed prepared to let him go but he surprisingly gave us a hometown discount at the last second which we happily accepted. So at this point Edmunds appears to be in the same boat as Milano. If he wants to come back for a lower than market value deal of course we'll take it. I don't ever expect a player to accept less than they're worth so I'm about 90% sure he won't be back. Maybe free agency isn't as kind to him as he expects but I think a young team with a lot of cap space and a QB on a rookie deal will be enticed by his athletic traits and give him a big contract.

You can't just compare injuries like that. White had other meniscus damage around the knee. Miller was a simple straightforward ACL tear. Also at least half the battle of recovering is mental. It was clear a few months ago that White was held back by more than just the injury. McDermott danced around it as best he could, but White clearly lost his confidence during the rehab. Contrast with Hyde he was set to return from a major neck injury in unprecedented time. He wanted to get back on the field so he made it happen. I have no doubts Miller will handle his rehab like a pro and he has an easier injury to manage from the start.

In a championship caliber offense he is a #3 target at best. That's what he would have been for any of the final 4 teams. Likely #3 for KC and #4 or worse for the rest. We're the only team that had a talent like that as our #2.

The problem in this discussion is that there are two different conversations going on. Is Davis a decent #2 WR? Yes. Is he a good enough #2 WR on a championship caliber offense? No. Look at how many weapons the other final contenders had. If we want to level up our offense we need much better than Davis as the 2nd most targeted player on offense. How is this even a debate?

Nick Sirriani got to the Super Bowl his 2nd year on the job. Kyle Shanahan and Zac Taylor both got there in their 3rd years. It's a myth that it takes several years for a new coaching staff to get the team to championship caliber. A new coach with no franchise QB, maybe (although that's where Taylor and Shanahan were when they took over). A new coach starting off with Josh Allen and established players on both sides of the ball would have very few if any growing pains. Don't be so afraid of change. If a regime after 7 years of trying doesn't even sniff a Super Bowl appearance even after several years of elite QB play, it is reasonable to give someone else a chance.

I'm good on more small linebackers. Size wins in the NFL. It's a trait that Beane has not put enough stock in. I don't want us approaching the offseason with the mindset of just filling positions on defense. It's more about finding the type of player we are missing. Brutal, mean, imposing. Edmunds finally had a very good year but you wouldn't use any of those words to describe his play. Ditto for Milano. Terrel Bernard was supposedly a "heart and soul" guy at Baylor. I want muscle and sinew. It's why I have grown to love the idea of Jack Campell in the 2nd. You watch clips of him and nobody is moving him backwards, he is stopping runners dead in their tracks and even dragging them backwards in some cases. We don't have anyone on defense with that ability right now. Edmunds even when in the right position often gets taken for a ride by the ball carrier. It's part of our overall defensive mindset - "giving up 6 yards is okay." But it isn't okay. Giving up 0 yards is the goal. I'd like our player evaluation to start matching that reality.

First play of the video I see him do something I've never seen Edmunds do - track a tipped ball and intercept it, and even have the wherewithal to keep moving forward after catching it. He looks slow so you're correct that we would need to change up our scheme to fit him in. But instincts can make up for speed. And I love his physicality. This defense has been missing size and brutality. It's all finesse. You need a couple guys on defense that the opposing players are scared of. The more I think about it the more I would love him in round 2 if he's still there.

It's time to change up our scheme anyways. We've done the same thing for six years with very little variation. That makes it way too easy for smart offensive coaches to take advantage. Last year we drafted a press man CB which was a nice variation that our coaches for some reason rused to utilize. If we draft a more traditional LB maybe that opens the door to call defensive plays that our opponents don't have six seasons worth of tape to dissect.

How much are we paying him?

Probably Jaquan Johnson's replacement.

Dodson or Bernard are not good enough to replace him, no argument there. But we can pay a capable LB in free agency for a much lower salary than Edmunds will get.

I wouldn't hate it but it looked to me like he lost a step last year. He isn't explosive which is the biggest element our offense is missing. If we're going to trade for that style of WR I would prefer DeAndre Hopkins, and it's already been reported that he is in fact available for trade.

I hear bits and pieces. Other people on the forum probably find out more than me. The story is that Allen missed a throw to Diggs in practice a couple times but told him don't worry he would hit it for real in the game. But he missed it. So Diggs blew up at him on the sideline and said "what's your excuse now, Josh?" I don't know anything beyond that. Someone else on here said Allen and Diggs got into a bit of a spat after the game, and it was reported that Diggs left the facility early. He's an emotional guy. Hates to lose. He needs to do a better job keeping his emotions in check though. There's a fine line between hating to lose and being a distraction.

He isn't done. He is very frustrated with getting close and then losing. He went too far with Allen on the sidelines IMO. But he isn't demanding a trade or anything crazy like that.