HappyDays

And I still think it was a net positive for Tyreek Hill to go from KC to Miami. I know he has totally revolutionized the offense for Miami, but Tua is still Tua and the Chiefs offense isn't nearly as explosive without him.

I was flipping back and forth between KC/CIN and MIA/SF all afternoon so I feel as good as if I had watched the Bills win 3 games this weekend.

Credit to Zac Taylor. The Bengals looked dead in the water earlier in the season. They've really pulled it together and put themselves right into the conversation for team to beat in the AFC.

Hell yeah!! We control our destiny for the #1 seed.

Ugh I wish a FG here would put them up by 9. The Chiefs will likely still have a chance to win this one.

Let's go!! Ice it.

One last thing I'll say on this because I don't want to take over the thread - You drive all the way down to the 5 yard line and come away with 0 points. That's the risk you take in going for it there, in a game where every possession matters. I don't care what the official probability of converting 4th and 1 is. You need a lot more data than that to evaluate hyperspecific decisions. And when the decision might end up costing you an entire possession's worth of points I don't think the risk is worth it.

As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite.

No, I've explained how even within the bot's own logic it is not a given that going for it is the right choice. What the bot actually tells us is the individual win percentage of 4 different outcomes - going for it and 1) converting or 2) failing, or kicking a FG and 3) converting or 4) failing. Everybody agrees that the FG there is basically a gimme. So using the bot's logic you're actually deciding on whether you want to accept a win probability of 65% for free, or risk ending up with a 59% win probability to try and get a 74% win probability. It is a totally valid belief that accepting the free points makes more sense than taking the risk. Whatever historical records show you don't actually know the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 attempt in this specific moment against this specific defense. You do know that the FG try is almost 100% guaranteed.

So... a team should always go for 2 points no matter what? I don't buy that. Except the bot doesn't actually know the conversion percentage on that play against that defense in that 4th and short situation. That's where the whole thing falls apart. You can't just use recorded logs of other matchups against other teams and act like that number is gospel. I get what the bot is trying to do but it's method doesn't pass basic scrutiny. It's just a thing the entire internet has decided to believe in for no reason.

The long run of what? A team might have one or two of those decisions per game.

Oh the 4th down decision bot. Where can I find the calculations used to come up with those weirdly specific numbers? I also like how even the bot shows that a successful FG equates to better win percentage than a failed go for it. I would take the sure points over the 35% failure chance every single time in that situation. I mean jeez the bot shows a 4% win probability difference between the decisions and you think it's really that easy? I mean I don't inherently just believe these random numbers I'm throwing out there, but even by the bot's own logic it makes sense to take the 3 points.

You can't possibly prove that that was the correct decision. The simple answer is that they are now tied instead of winning by 3. Doesn't look either team is going to run away with this one. Those points matter.

Watch I bet this game comes down to 3 points at the end. Every game this year where I've seen these early over aggressive decisions that's how it always ends. That's how we lost to the Vikings.

No you don't. The Chiefs have a good interior DL and their offense isn't totally unstoppable. Instead of risking everything on your bad OL just take the points and play the game out from there. There are times to be aggressive, but playing a team on your level at your stadium and still in the 1st half is not that time.

Should be a tie game, instead the Bengals are playing catch up. Take the freaking points. This has become my crusade.

Yeah well this year I've seen the Jags lose at least 2 games because Doug Pederson was needlessly aggressive on 4th down.

Most games come down to a few points. You take the points until you're forced to play aggressive. I feel like this is an easy philosophy that every coach now flubs.

Every coaching staff in the league is afraid to take points now. I don't get it.

If you want to go around the edge you have to pitch it. You don't take advantage of the defense over playing the QB sneak by handing the ball off that close to the middle of the LOS. Stupid play call.

49ers start the 2nd half with the ball too so they have a chance to pull away.

This is a nice looking Bengals drive but unfortunately I was told in this thread that the Bengals gave the game away so it doesn't matter 😢

I give Gabe Davis a lot of crap but MVS has been awful for the Chiefs this year. A total non-factor.

Ugh it's too bad the Bengals dropped a pick a couple plays ago, they had a chance to run away with this one.

Mahomes is taking a lot of hits today. You can see it's taking him off his game.