HappyDays

Why did you ignore Orlando Browm and Joe Thuney?

They spent an entire offseasom upgrading the OL after getting blown out in the Super Bowl. Traded for Orlando Brown, signed Joe Thuney to a massive deal, drafted Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round. Agreed they got lucky getting Trey Smith in the 6th round because of a medical flag, but the rest was not luck; it was a specific and intentional improvement strategy. I don't need us to replicate the Chiefs strategy exactly. But I've said before most Super Bowl champions have either an elite OL or an elite group of weapons. The Bills currently have neither. To me that's where the gap still exists between us and the other Super Bowl contenders.

They talked more about this idea yesterday too: To summarize - they say that the Bills are so concerned with being at least average at every position, they've missed out on being really great at a couple positions other than QB. Specifically at WR Florio thinks we have been stubborn and that everyone other than Buffalo knows we need more there. Simms makes the case that we should do what the Chiefs did, go all in on offensive infrastructure and just have a couple pieces on defense that can make some plays.

Beane is pretty open and honest about his process every year, so I take these statements as fact.

That's what I like about the TSW mock drafts. In the real draft the teams don't go all chalk picks. There are huge surprises every year. A WR with Johnston's measurables going higher than expected isn't crazy. Too many mock drafts try to play the selections by the book. Here 32 different minds means you get some real curve balls.

Interesting that he has Quentin Johnston falling into the 2nd round. I can't imagine us passing on him if he falls to us.

Dane Brugler has a source that says the Cowboys would take Michael Mayer if he is there at 26:

Or if we take say Hyatt or Addison in the 1st round and also obtain Hopkins, we could immediately trade Davis for maybe a 3rd round pick. Davis's presence on the roster shouldn't stop the Bills from doing anything at the position, even multiple high value investments. Replacing Davis and getting value for him now before he inevitably walks next offseason is arguably the best possible outcome.

I also posted this in the draft rumors thread - I have a credible source that says the Bills really want Jordan Addison. So your preferred 1st round pick may come to fruition. In the scenario that you mocked I believe we would trade above the Giants because we know that WR is a big need for them. Much like they did with Elam last year they would take the small trade up to ensure they come away with a player they really desire.

Potentially the Saints. I know they signed Derek Carr but he is 32 years old and he isn't the caliber of QB that stops you from drafting one. The Saints could conceivably trade him next offseason and save money against the cap in 2024. For a team picking below them that really wants a QB, the risk of waiting may be too great. My logic for the Raiders being that trade up team is that everyone in that regime is now on the hot seat. Do they really want their do or die season to be in the hands of Jimmy Garrappolo? Hooker has good pocket passer size and his best traits are in the rhythm/quick passing game. I could see McDaniels liking that skill set. You figure if Garrappolo isn't getting it done, maybe Hooker steps in late in the season and leads them to some ostensibly meaningless wins, but those wins at least get the fanbase and ownership excited. That could be enough to buy McDaniels and company another year.

What so you think about a team like the Raiders wanting to jump the Saints and draft Hendon Hooker? That's been a trendy outcome in some mock drafts that I've looked at. In fact it's exactly what I did as the Raiders in the TSW mock draft. The Raiders have a whopping 12 picks in this draft, and we only have 6, so it would make sense. A simple trade would be we trade back to pick 38, and in exchange they give us pick 100 and pick 109.

Ngakoue isn't an every down rusher, but we don't need him to be. Bring him in as a sub pass rusher who gets a few good rushes per game. Kind of like the role Jordan Phillips had for us in 2019, rack up a lot of sacks on relatively few rushes. He's bounced around a lot of teams. Went from Jax to Minnesota, they traded him to Baltimore soon after signing him, then he signed with Las Vegas, shortly after that he got traded to Indy, and now he's an unsigned free agent. Apparently he's kind of a weird guy and didn't click with teammates in the Colts locker room, and he has a tendency to freelance on his rushes. But you figure for a cheap rotational piece you can manage his issues and just use him to rack up sacks and QB hits. Rashaan Evans is the exact kind of MLB I think this team needs to sign before the draft. Cheap and gives us a floor above Bernard, Dodson, and Spector. So if we don't draft an upgrade we at least have a known capable starter on the roster.

Ha that is funny. My source I know for a fact has connections on the team. Actually the fact that ECB reported those rumors on Twitter gives me more confidence that he has a credible source. My source has said that if the Hopkins rumors are true, the process hasn't gotten far along that he would have heard about it from anyone he knows in the building.

Per the same source that told me Poyer's exact contract details before they were announced, and that Shaq Lawson would be signed for the vet minimum before that was announced, the Bills apparently really want Jordan Addison. McDermott is good friends with the Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi. That's where Addison played before transferring to USC. We know McDermott leans on his friends in college coaching to make draft decisions (notably Dave Aranda). Connecting the dots there it would make sense. Two other non-draft rumors from the same source - the Bills have been in contact with Yannick Ngakoue and Rashaan Evans. My guess is that if they sign either of these players it would happen after the draft.

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I actually think in a weak draft it's more likely he trades up a few spots. We know Beane likes to come out of the draft with a legitimate 1st round graded player. It's why he traded up slightly for Elam last year. If a 1st round graded player drops to maybe 20, I think he goes up and gets him. The name I keep coming back to is Quentin Johnston. Elite physical traits, fills a need, high football character. I'd be shocked if Beane didn't have a 1st round grade on him. Last year Beane traded down several times in the 2nd round which indicated he had no 2nd round graded players left on the board. The year before he had a trade down in place in the 2nd round but stood pat and drafted Basham because their grade on him was too high to pass up. So I believe that if Beane does not trade up and there are no 1st round graded players left on the board, he will try as hard as he can to trade down before making a selection.

The Raiders select Nick Saldiveri, OT, Old Dominion. We need to bolster the right side of our line. Saldiveri projects as a tackle that doesn't need too much development so he can compete to start right away. The Falcons @RyanC883 are on the clock.

As usual I selected the player that I think the Bills would actually select, not my own preference. With this selection of choices I would guess Jordan Battle. We've met with a lot of DBs so I think Beane wants to take a safety on day two or three to solidify the future of that group. I'm not confident he will draft a guard before day three. A center maybe, if he feels like the end is near for Morse, but at guard he has Bates and McGovern locked up and Edwards as solid depth behind them.

The Chiefs had an elite OL with Andrew Wylie as the weak link at RT. Even worst case scenario if Spencer Brown doesn't progress at all, it's an easy position to work around. I still want us to draft OL once or twice at some point, RT just isn't my preference in the 1st round.

Well he isn't going to be a contested catch specialist in the NFL. But that's fine. Contested catch ability is overrated anyways in the pros. He projects as a vertical separation + YAC specialist. Those are much more important traits IMO. I would compare him to Christian Watson from last year's draft, but stronger and harder to bring down in the open field even if you manage to catch up to him. And unlike Watson he produced big time against top college teams, namely Michigan in the playoff semifinals. After weeks of reading up and watching film on draft prospects, I've come to the conclusion that my preferred 1st round outcome for the Bills is Quentin Johnston drops far enough that we can use our 3rd round pick to trade up to draft him. No way a player with elite physical traits that fills a need and plays a premium position is going to drop to us at 27. It's a weak draft anyways so I want us to take that swing. The bust factor with Johnston is real, I just think his high football character and physical traits makes it unlikely.

Yep, in fact Cover 1 studied this and found a very high correlation between pre-draft meetings and the positions we draft: Statistically we should expect WR to be the first pick and not much focus on LB or OL. I would also just about guarantee we will draft a TE at some point considering we've been connected to so many TE prospects.