HappyDays

Where do you calculate the percentage to be at now?

The way I look at it, we traded Devin Singletary for Damien Harris and a 3rd round pick. Who wouldn't take that trade?

That base value nets us our 3rd round comp pick next year.

Buffalo Solider is one of the most famous Bob Marley songs. It's most likely meaningless.

Or, do what the Bengals did - accumulate skill position talent for your elite QB and fill in the offensive line. The Chiefs did the exact opposite. Both ways get you to the Super Bowl.

Yeah he's not terrible, just underwhelming given his draft position. People wanting to just trade him for a 4th or whatever are crazy. The only reason I'd trade him is if we're using the trade as a way to acquire a difference maker on offense. We're unlikely to extend him next year so I'm fine letting him go a year early if it still improves our team overall in 2023.

I would like them to acquire Jeudy, Hopkins, or OBJ, and then they can draft whoever they feel is the BPA at each pick. OL I would like them to spend more day two and three picks there. But in round one nobody should be surprised if we take another front 7 player. That's seemingly where the value will be at our spot and our pass rush was abysmal down the stretch last year.

DL is ALWAYS a need, for every team. Filling four spots plus depth for more than one year at a time is impossible. Nobody should be surprised if Beane drafts DL early again. It has the highest potential production to rookie contract value other than QB. Just because Epenesa and Basham were bad picks and Oliver has been underwhelming doesn't mean you stop going back to that well.

It's crazy to say but one move or lack thereof will be the difference between this offseason being by far the best of the Josh Allen era or being underwhelming. Get OBJ, Jeudy, or Hopkins and I don't even care what positions we take in the draft. Fail to do that and we are still lagging behind in the offensive arms race.

My guess is he way overpriced himself given an extensive injury history and playing a non-premium position. Teams like the Bills moved on and found someone else, and then he was forced to take the best offer still available before he got locked out of the market entirely. I don't want to believe that the Bills intentionally chose McGovern over Seumalo for effectively the same price.

You have to factor in injuries. JuJu Smith-Schuster just 4 years after a 1,400 yard season had to settle for basically $3 million guaranteed on a one year prove it deal with the Chiefs. Injury prone non-elite players are going for much less than their projected market value. This is especially true for a high volume position like RB. The nice thing about having an elite QB and a highly productive offense is that we get first dibs on those one year prove it deals. Harris knows if he comes here and produces and plays the whole season he'll get a more lucrative contract from another team next year, the same formula JuJu used. Having an elite QB is a cheat code in more ways than one.

Yes! This is fantastic news. My original thought that an injury ridden downhill RB is worth less than $2 million. The only thing I don't understand is why some fans were okay with the idea that he would get more than that and cost us a comp pick. Now we wait to see Singletary's base value.

It's supposed to be a weak draft, though. Our last few 2nd rounders are James Cook, Boogie Basham, AJ Epenesa, Cody Ford, Zay Jones. You wouldn't give up any of those players for a two year rental of DeAndre Hopkins? To me it's a no brainer. For Jeudy I would do a 1st because he's only 24 years old and he is a better WR prospect than any WR we could conceivably draft with our 1st rounder. OBJ doesn't cost draft picks, we just need to pay him a little more than other teams are offering for a one year prove it deal. Preferences may vary but to me any one of these options is a no brainer. It isn't adding "just another WR." It's improving on Gabe Davis who was the worst #2 target of any of the remaining contenders last year. Well, we didn't. We signed Conner McGovern, that was the extent of our OL improvements this offseason. Recent history shows you can make it to the Super Bowl with elite skill positions (Bengals) or elite OL (Chiefs), or ideally both (Eagles). At this point I know there are available options that would raise our skill positions to an elite level. There is no way we are going to suddenly raise our OL to an elite level at this point. So, I take the most sensible path available - acquire one of the available players that improves our WR #2 and know for a fact that we are fielding a better offense than the one that scored 10 points in the divisional round.

The way I look at it, we know Hopkins, Jeudy, and OBJ are available. If we don't end up with one of them I consider the offseason mostly a failure. Improving the depth on the offense, but failing to improve the #2 WR when better options are available, would constitute a failure IMO.

I'm not disputing that we needed to sign a back with Harris' skill set. I'm saying it the opportunity cost of signing him is a 3rd round pick, we should have done something else. Harris isn't an elite back. He's just a pretty good downhill RB. Here's some food for thought - Beane has never spent a day three pick on a RB. That's pretty unbelievable. If signing Harris means we spent yet another 3rd round pick on a RB, this time for a one-year deal, it is very poor valuation of the position.

Singletary will likely qualify as a lost UFA, it just hasn't been updated on there yet because his official contract numbers haven't been announced. It was reported as one year "up to $3.75 million." The thought is that it will be at least $2.5 million base. I guess if it isn't then we probably lose out on the comp pick regardless. In that event Poyer not getting a better contract elsewhere is ultimately what will have cost us the comp pick and I won't blame Beane for that.

I'm still hopeful that it won't be. I guess the actual threshold for players that qualify for the comp pick formula is believed to be around $2.5 million this year. If we got him for $2 million or less I think it's a good signing. If we paid more than that, and next year we're talking about a free top 100 pick that we lost, the signing will have been inexcusable IMO.

It does matter. We're talking about a free top 100 pick. Signing an injury ridden RB with a limited skill set to a one year deal is not worth losing that pick. We could have signed Elliott to play the same role, or just drafted one on day three like most teams do for that skill set. Even if you're correct that we would have had to spend that 3rd round pick on a RB (although I will mention this obviously isn't inherently true), there's a big difference between a cost controlled RB on a multi-year rookie contract and a veteran on a one year contract. Let's be real. A one season rental of almost any RB is not worth a 3rd round pick. It's arguable that not a single RB is worth that trade off. For Damien Harris the suggestion is laughable.

I don't want to believe that Beane threw away a free 3rd round pick to sign an injury ridden RB with a limited skill set. Personally when I saw the announcement I assumed we were giving him like $1.6 million. A RB signing this late in free agency isn't typically getting more than that. Seeing some of the discussion about his value admittedly makes me nervous now. Hopefully I'm right.

I don't know yet. If it's more than $1.75 million I'm not a fan of the signing. That would be the same as effectively trading a 2024 3rd rounder for him. We've been willing to roll with starters from rounds 4-7 at seemingly every position other than RB. If we yet again spent a 3rd round pick (indirectly, but still) on a no-more-than-decent RB, I give up.