HappyDays

I would describe this offseason as surgical. Perhaps out of necessity due to tight cap space and limited draft capital, Beane has had to spend every last dollar and draft pick appropriately. Every move has made a lot of sense and every addition has a reasonable likelihood of measurably improving the roster. Beane finally, FINALLY, made some concessions on defense in order to devote more resources to the offense. He hasn't made any wacky Vernon Butler type deals. Some people need to max out their credit cards before they learn how to spend responsibly. I think we've seen Beane go through that transition this offseason.

I think we will keep 5 DTs this year. We had a rash of injuries at the position last year so I think Beane will play it extra safe. An easy spot to make up the difference is at TE, just carry 2 and leave Morris on the PS. Or at RB, carry 3 (plus Gilliam) and leave Murray on the PS. DT isn't a position you want to suddenly find yourself thin at. Anyways it would cost more to cut Settle than to keep him.

Probably not going to get that this year. The scouting report on Dorian Williams reads like a poor man's version of Edmunds - sideline to sideline range, but slow to process. Dodson isn't much of a processor. Bernard didn't looked he belonged on the field at all last year. I can't help but come back to Milano as the only guy on the roster that makes sense as a MLB. Beane shut the idea down early in the offseason, but maybe they've changed their tune after seeing how FA and the draft went? Maybe the idea is get some big bodies in front of Milano so he won't get steamrolled and let his processing be enough to make up for his size. I can stomach the idea of Dorian Williams or even Bernard as the will. I just can't think of any other LB combination that makes sense. So then why not just put Milano at MLB? If Bernard is supposedly a Milano clone, but not nearly as developed, wouldn't it make sense to put the better player at the more important position?

I know his history, I'm talking about how teams see him now. He has bounced around from team to team. Every team that has tried him out as a starter has quickly moved on from him. His original team the Jaguars didn't really make an effort to bring him back. So the Vikings signed him and then almost immediately traded him to the Ravens, who didn't keep him past the season. He then signed with the Raiders who traded him to the Colts the following offseason. Now after one year with them he's a free agent post-draft. So he is no longer seen as a primary starting edge rusher. He is going to have to accept his new role as a rotational player. No one still available at this point in the offseason can pretend they are more than that. If he does that at a high level for one year maybe he'll cash in one more time.

Ngakoue isn't a full time starter anyways. He's a sub package pass rush only player. Think Jordan Phillips' role for us in 2019, but from the edge. No team is bringing him on now to be their primary starter. He's hit plenty of stops throughout his short career, teams know what he is.

He's not going to get that kind of money at this point. Most teams have their rosters set. The best thing a player like Ngakoue can do is go to a team that has a clear need at the position and show out on a one year deal. We'd be a good fit for him to do that.

I still worry about our lack of top end talent, especially if Von takes a while to get back to form and Tre never finds his old self, but with Allen at QB no question in my mind this is a championship caliber roster from top to bottom. If once again we suffer an uncompetitive playoff loss I'm pointing the finger at the coaches, not Beane. The talent is good enough. Figure out a way to make it work or I'll remain unconvinced that these coaches will ever make it work.

My take on Oliver is that he was a great disruptor when healthy last year. His short arms are a problem for him as a finisher which is why his sack numbers tend to be low, but he at least has the ability to regularly get into the pocket and get the QB off his spot. The problem is he was injured for so much of the year that he lost his disruption. I don't think it makes any sense to trade Oliver unless we're doing it as a means to get Hopkins. Just getting a mid round draft pick for him is not a good reason to get rid of him. He could still be a force for us this year if he stays healthy. The value he has on the team is greater than the value he has in a trade.

Cheap ownership in Arizona ruined this deal for us. I can't really even be mad at Beane, it simply isn't possible under those constraints.

The obvious answer is Davis because he will almost certainly have the most snaps out of all skill position players. Last year he even had 90 more snaps than Diggs despite playing in one less game. That kind of snap percentage lends itself to a high target share. Hopefully he maximizes those targets much better than he did last year. Third in targets is where it gets interesting. Harty is a sneaky pick there. I feel like he is the stealth signing of the offseason, nobody in local or national media is really talking about him at all and this board has all but forgotten about him. We gave him a decently large contract considering his injury history. So I have to think he will be more involved than the lack of buzz would have you believe. So my predicted target share ranking is this: Diggs Davis Harty Kincaid Knox Cook Shakir And the scraps will go to the remaining depth pieces.

Classic motte and bailey. Thanks Einstein. I knew exactly what your response would be. Moving on.

Oh the Packers were a non-playoff team? And why was that? Did something happen in week 18?

A few weeks ago they had spoken to LB Rashaan Evans and EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, but I haven't heard of any imminent signings.

Good stuff.

This is one of the reasons I'm excited about Kincaid. When you watch him at Utah his football intelligence and field awareness pops off the screen. He has an innate understanding of where to sit in coverage gaps and make himself available to his QB, and similarly understands where he needs to be heading as soon as he catches the ball to maximize YAC. Keep in mind he only started playing football as a senior in high school so for a relative newcomer to the sport his instincts are very advanced. I have no doubt he will quickly get on the same page with Josh and become his safety valve, much like Cole Beasley was from 2019-2021. With a lot of players who suffer from focus drops, you have to coach them on making the catch before they think about moving. With Kincaid it's the opposite - he has the rare ability to catch the ball and simultaneously start moving without a stutter. His best plays on tape are a combination of his great instincts, his elite hands, and his excellent hip fluidity working together in perfect football motion. Flash open, catch the ball, immediately run towards a gap in the defense and pick up chunk yards. Isn't that in a nutshell what makes Kelce so annoying to defend? I find that sequencing more impressive and more consistently translatable to the next level than some of the circus catches on Kincaid's tape, which are certainly impressive in their own right. Agreed that the mental skill set is what sets Kelce apart from any other TE in history, even moreso than his athleticism. So when I watch Kincaid I see the same sort of fluidity to his motion AND the same instincts/awareness that Kelce has. The only slight disadvantage is that Kincaid is 1 inch shorter and 9 pounds lighter than Kelce was as a rookie, but that difference is almost inconsequential. One advantage is that I think Kincaid has better hands than Kelce coming out, and Kelce didn't have bad hands by any means, Kincaid is just one of the best I've ever watched at plucking the ball out of the air. It seems crazy to compare any rookie to the greatest TE of all time and I worry that I'm getting myself overly hyped about him, but it's the comp I saw when I first watched some of Kincaid's tape a couple months ago and it made him my draft crush.

I know they had also talked to Yannick Ngakoue and Rashaan Evans which would both fill needs. But right now we are at just under $5 million in cap space and that's before signing our draft class.

I never get tired of this stuff.

One thing I've heard about Shorter, and you can see it in his interviews with Bills media, is that he really fits the type of personality this regime likes. Crazy work ethic, hellbent on being a great player, loves the game. He'll take screenshots of negative comments he reads about himself and make that his phone's lock screen so it's the first thing he sees every day. It might not actually amount to anything but we know this regime loves taking physical specimens with that kind of football character. For a 5th round pick we get a former 5 star recruit that will give his opportunity everything he's got. It's a worthy swing at that point in the draft.

I know that one is RB Latavius Murrary. I heard he will be signed as early as tomorrow.

I think we greatly improved some of our less important pieces - Kumerow, McKenzie, Saffold, Morris. But I still worry about the lack of true top end talent. Right now to start the year it is still just Allen and Diggs as elite players at their positions. A lot of it will depend on how Von Miller recovers. Hopefully by December he'll be the same player he was for us before injury, I mean he practically won the Chiefs game for us. If we get him back to his old self that gives us three elite players. Ideally though you want at least four. Maybe Tre White will find himself again, I'm just not counting on it. Especially on the offensive side I worry that outside of Diggs we have no true game changers at our skill positions or on our OL. An elite QB can make up the difference but we need a few of those depth pieces we signed - notably Harty and Harris, and to a similar extent Kincaid - to maximize their potential in order for that gap between us and some of the other contenders' weapons to be bridged. This is why I am still hoping for Hopkins although that possibility appears to be dwindling with each passing day. Most importantly the coaching needs to be much better in the playoffs. This is something no one can predict until we see it. McDermott can't trot out the same old predictable scheme that smart offensive coaches led by smart QBs like the Chiefs and Bengals have can easily take advantage of. And Dorsey was taken to school by Lou Anarumo, he has to take a big step this year to prove he is capable of calling a chamionship caliber offense. No one would confuse our overall roster for the best in the league, but if we stay relatively healthy the roster combined with Josh Allen is certainly good enough to win a Super Bowl. Another disappointing playoff exit would be more on the coaches than the talent IMO.

It's the latest advancement in sports science.

Thank you for your scouting reports.