HappyDays

This is a "Josh Allen is newly single" tweet:

Did something maybe happen halfway through the season?

It's established at this point that Hopkins wants to play here. From Beane's public comments I suspect that he would love to have him here too. The issue is we can't afford it unless Arizona agrees to retain most of the salary. I'm hoping that as we approach the trade deadline both sides can figure something out. Jerry Jeudy is another trade deadline candidate to keep an eye on if Denver's season goes downhill quickly like I expect.

The media has access each Tuesday for the next three weeks so we'll get some reports. For Athletic subscribers Joe Buscaglia has a good breakdown of the storylines to watch:

I agree, he was excellent in both matchups that he had against Hill. Even the catches he gave up didn't come easy. It made me wonder why we didn't try more of that at other points in the season, especially against the Bengals. In Elam and Cook we drafted two players with unique (on our roster) skill sets and then barely used those skill sets. It was a rare case of the front office not being in lock step with the coaching staff.

We drafted a press man CB and never played press man. Will that change this year?

That's fair, but what my source told me lines up with the timeline and with every other report about Frazier leaving. If he was stealth fired or given an ultimatum, why the month long wait? Why didn't McDermott interview external candidates? The truth is McDermott was surprised to see Frazier walk away, not blindsided but surprised. Anyways Frazier was just running McDermott's scheme, he wasn't going rogue with his defensive philosophy. I did come out of the season thinking changes to the defense were coming but that would have been true whether Frazier stayed or not. I mean they pretty much HAVE TO change up the defense. So many consecutive failures in the playoffs is unacceptable, I'm sure McDermott knows that. But firing Frazier wasn't ever going to be the solution. The real change starts at the top.

I know for a fact, from a source, that it was entirely Frazier's decision. It was not a stealth firing as some have proposed, and his contract wasn't set to expire. McDermott wanted Frazier to stay, but he thought it over for a month and ultimately decided to take a year off from coaching. It's not unheard of that coaches will take a year off. The year long grind is in some ways even more grueling on the coaches than on the players. My unsourced belief is that if Frazier wanted to get back into the fold next year McDermott would welcome him back. Frazier does not currently have a team affiliation because he is currently not working with the Bills. That doesn't mean he is out forever. It's interesting that McDermott ended up taking over play calling duties and will be the de facto DC. I know that soon after Frazier's decision Bobby Babich Jr. was the front runner for the job. I don't know what changed. Perhaps McDermott decided enough is enough with the defensive crashes in the playoffs and decided he wants full control of the ship.

Beane has said Allen specifically told him he liked Kincaid. When Beane texted Allen right before making the pick to let him know he was taking Kincaid, Allen got so excited he blew up Beane's phone. So yes Allen loved the pick. This makes me especially excited about Kincaid because it shows that Allen will specifically look to throw him the ball. I have said elsewhere I believe Kincaid will immediately take over Beasley's role in this offense and will be fully up to speed by week 1 (he played in a pro offense at Utah). Allen loved using Beasley as his safety valve until his talent fell off a cliff, so much so that he walked into Beane's office and asked him to bring Beasley out of retirement just to give him somebody functional in that role last year. I'm sure he is very excited to have that type of player back in his offense after spending most of 2022 without it.

On young people not choosing football as much, two Bills draft picks from this year alone - Kincaid and Shorter - mentioned in interviews that their mothers forbid them from playing football when they were young, so they were late entrants to the sport. So that is certainly much more common these days. I don't know what the solution is.

I still don't expect Hopkins to be on the Cardinals for the full season. At this point I think he'll be the top trade deadline candidate. By then the Cards will be something like 2-7 with their eye on Caleb Williams. If Gabe Davis still doesn't look the part as the WR2 I could see us making an in-season "over the hump" move like this. That scenario probably makes the most sense for all involved parties to be honest. We save money on Hopkins and get him in time for our brutal stretch run, Arizona gets to save face because no one could blame them for offloading him in the middle of a lost season, Hopkins gets to join a contender as they approach the playoffs. Everybody wins.

Not even close.

From this article:

If this is true, I question why Josh Allen isn't looking at him more? I've seen people try to blame Allen himself for this, but Allen was constantly looking Beasley's way from 2019-2021. So I know that he will specifically look for a safety valve if he trusts the player. For one reason or another he isn't looking to Knox as a safety valve. I feel that there must be a reason for this beyond "Allen just doesnt feel like it." I don't put much stock in Next Gen Stats' separation rate. QBs aren't looking for yards of separation, they're looking for leverage. There are plenty of scenarios where a WR with 1 yard of separation is still in a better spot to catch the ball than a WR with 5 yards of separation. It's practically a meaningless stat without context. It's possible that Knox is not properly leveraging himself in a way that creates a good catch and run window in between zone defenders the way that Beasley used to. I don't think Allen really trusts Knox to see things the same way that he does and Allen is very much a "trust" style of QB. This is my counter to people that say "why did we draft Kincaid if we don't even throw to Knox?" I think Kincaid's instincts to leverage himself properly in coverage gaps will mesh very well with what Allen likes and I believe he will immediately take over 2020 Beasley's function in this offense but with a much better catch radius and a much higher YAC ceiling on any given play.

Knox doesn't have the route running, the short area quickness, or the coverage reading ability needed to play from the slot regularly. Think Beasley's skill set. That isn't Knox. Unlike Kincaid you wouldn't describe Knox's game as "fluid." Knox is more of a "straight line, run you over" kind of athlete which is a good skill set for a traditional TE. You can live with an above average drop rate from a traditional TE (as long as it's not the ridiculous 20% drop rate Knox had as a rookie); a slot receiver on the contrary needs to have very good hands to be effective. The areas that Knox is weak in Kincaid excels in, and vice versa. I think they're a perfect complementary match.

The best possible counter to the way defenses played us last year is TE seam routes. The 2nd best counter is stop routes by a cerebral pass catcher that knows where to sit in coverage gaps, especially one with fluid catch and run ability. Hey what do you know, the Bills drafted a player in the 1st round that excels at both of these concepts. Kincaid and to some extent James Cook are the answer to the problem defenses posed us last year. It was bizarre watching us refuse to get Knox and our pass catching RBs involved last year when defenses were practically begging us to throw them the ball. As long as Dorsey understands this, and the Kincaid pick makes me optimistic that he does, I expect a more consistent / much less boom or bust offense this year.

I confess I hated the Josh Allen pick at the time so I was a little more apprehensive about him as a rookie. Kincaid I feel is a sure thing and can take this offense to another level. Every year I have one or two draft crushes that I don't really expect to be there when we pick. Kincaid is the first time I can remember that my draft crush fell to us and we took him.

Yeah that last clip from Sal shows off his skill set. Speed on the release, sharp cut in, catch the ball and continue running upfield in one fluid motion. I haven't been this excited about a Bills rookie in at least the last decade.