HappyDays

Just incredible.

That play is a poor example of what you're referring to. That isn't a needle throw. Davis by NFL standards is wide open. As soon as Allen sees the CB in trail and the LB flat footed without enough depth it is a quick read and an easy decision. Because of where his hips are facing at the top of his drop it is in fact the easier throw then readjusting to throw to Shakir. The play works exactly as designed - Knox and Diggs create enough traffic so Davis's man loses him. If the play didn't work Allen would have turned to Shakir as his outlet but he didn't need to. To your overall point - in the New England offense, which we run a variation of, the reads go long to short. I heard Chris Simms talking about this last week. He was contrasting it to the Shanahan offense where reads go short to long. Our offense is designed to read deep first. I don't necessarily disagree that we should have some more short and quick passing concepts built in but that is more of a scheme change than an Allen change.

A lot of consternation came from the initial report that we gave him $45 million guaranteed. But it appears that is not actually true. Unless I'm missing something this is a very team friendly deal and the initial report was a straight up lie.

It isn't about Mahomes specifically. Your question is absurd on the face of it. It has no value in the discussion. "Why does Josh need help?" Because every QB, ever, needs help. Super Bowls aren't won by one man shows. Allen clearly has elevated the players around him. When are his teammates going to elevate him? Mahomes had a high ankle sprain and had to leave a playoff game for an entire quarter plus. He spent the rest of the playoffs hobbled and had an inexplicable no-contact fumble in a critical moment in the AFCCG. His teammates found a way to elevate him. I'm not trying to take away from his greatness, not at all, but the decision makers in KC have made it a point to build as much as possible around him first and foremost. Brady is the GOAT but had a ton of help every year that he was in New England. In 2019 the offensive talent around him fell off a cliff, his stats declined susbtantially, and they lost in the wildcard round. Everyone declared his career over. He went to the most talented roster in football in 2020, and hey what a coincidence just about every stat he had that year was better than his career average. There's this widespread belief that great QBs make their receivers. The truth of course is that it goes both ways. The question isn't "why does Allen need help?" The question is why shouldn't he have as much help as he can get? What is the downside to trying to create an offense that rivals the greatest offenses in history? I can understand the argument that Hopkins is a poor fit for the Bills, past his prime, etc. but I really don't understand the argument that we should stop trying to add offensive talent just because Allen is the QB.

I wonder if they added a void year to stretch out the cap hit.

How does this differ from Mahomes?

That's your opinion, not mine. I put our RB rooms on the same level. Our WR group is deeper, no debate there. "Solid?" It was the 2nd or 3rd best OL in the entire league. And the difference between Reid and Dorsey was indeed VAST, even in the most optimistic view of Dorsey's job last year. This is arguably more important than any roster differences between the two offenses. Anyways you're the one that tried to paint Allen in a bad light because "he needs help." I'm just pointing out that even the perceived best QB in the NFL needed a lot of help to win his Super Bowls too. An all time great TE, an all time great play caller, a top 3 OL. Why does Mahomes need so much help?

I mean, yes they were?

Mahomes had two players that were among the best at their position on his offense (Kelce and Humphrey), and a top 2 play caller. Allen had one player like that and a rookie play caller. Is it so much to ask for the help given to Allen to be at least equivalent to the help given to Mahomes?

This guy is a Twitter troll, he makes up crap like this all the time. It's his brand of "comedy."

It seems like the best chance for us to get Hopkins is for him to go unsigned long enough that he realizes he isn't going to get the contract he wants. It feels like a slim chance at this point though, unfortunately.

I agree Scott, but I have felt all along that Beane could mange to sign one of the last remaining edge rushers AND Hopkins if he executed all of the necessary restructures. Floyd doesn't change that calculation for me. I am assuming that like anyone signed this late in the offseason his cap number will be reasonably low. In other words I don't believe that signing Floyd prevents us from signing Hopkins. Getting another legit edge rusher in the room was 100% necessary IMO. I think Kincaid will have an immediate impact. Don't think of him as a TE. Think of him as Cole Beasley plus. He played in a pro offense at Utah and will be 24 when the season starts. I don't expect much of a ramp up period. Plus Allen specifically wanted him. I am confident he will look to throw him the ball.

This is a great move. Floyd was one of about 5 edge rushers still available that I desperately wanted the Bills to sign. It was going to be a glaring need until Von is fully recovered. I think right now Basham is competing with Shane Ray for the last roster spot. I won't be surprised if Basham is traded for a late day three pick in August.

I don't want to get too stuck in the weeds on his contract value relative to other players at his position. The bigger concern in my mind is that this represents another major investment in a DL player that is not dominant. Von Miller is the only investment they've made so far there where you can say his level of play justified the investment amount, unpredictable ACL tear notwithstanding. Rousseau is the only other one I still have hope will meet the standard of his investment. A top 10 pick on Oliver, 2nd round picks on Epenesa and Basham, to go along with the myriad of overpriced signings Beane has made in free agency. On the whole the handling of the entire DL has been poor and it's left us with much less capital to use on supporting Allen. Signing Oliver to a big extension perpetuates this issue. Beane clearly understands that the DL is extremely important but he has to learn that just throwing resources at the problem isn't going to fix it. A pattern of bad investments there has finally caught up to us on other areas of the team.

His hand size and arm length are both in the 11th percentile for his position. It is a legitimate concern. When you're trying to take down guys like Mahomes and Jackson and Hurts it isn't enough to just get into the pocket, you have to get your hands on them and bring them down or at least slow them enough until help arrives. If Oliver is always just a disruptor but never a finisher it will be hard to justify this contract IMO.

From Joe Buscaglia's article:

Just because a player is the 12th best player at his position in the league (which is debatable IMO) doesn't mean you have to pay him that way. We let Edmunds walk for similar reasons. This devotes even more future cap space to the DL after a tremendous over-investment in that group over the past few years, which gives us less flexibility to pay game changing players around Allen. I can't find any logic for this extension. It is totally unnecessary IMO and in fact it may lead to Oliver not playing to his best level this year because he has no incentive to push himself to be greater.

Yeah I thought letting him play out a contract year was the best possible outcome. This is a head scratcher for me. It feels like Beane panicked after Lawrence and Simmons signed their deals and wanted to make sure Oliver got done before Quinnen Williams. I feel that Oliver does not have the natural desire to be one of the greatest at his position so I would have left his incentive on the table. If we're doing this as a means to clear up cap space to afford Hopkins this year then I can get behind on it. But even in that scenario this extension will give us less cap space to offer Hopkins in 2024.

I'll add the usual disclaimer that we need to see what the actual contract numbers look like. The initial numbers are always agent driven. I would guess his cap number this year will be reduced.